Watch for a CNN/WMUR poll showing Obama and Clinton tied in New Hampshire, with Obama leading among independents and Clinton leading among Democrats.
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Conversely, Daniel, Suffolk/WHDH has Hillary at +7 and Zogby has Hillary at +4. A tie would seem to be more of a mean than an outlier. 
It'll be interesting to see if this poll started before or after Iowa, I think that may be the issue with the discrepancies with some of these polls. Any word on the GOP numbers?
Mike, I wasn't aware of those, but that's a pretty significant range of variance. Is there any sense of what the differences in their models might be? Does one have a better reputation or record than the other? WHAT'S GOING ON IN NEW HAMPSHIRE??!! (That's for anyone, obviously, not just Mike.)
Mike, those two polls are before Iowa. The 'end date' says the 4th, but that's the tail end and why it was still an uptick for Obama. Zogby himself said 80% of his poll was done before the Iowa vote. It will be interesting to see their next poll. Also, CNN had Hillary up by 9 points in Iowa before the vote, 17 points off, for what its worth.
CORRECTION American Res. Group had Hillary by 9 points. CNN had Hillary by 2 points. Still 10 points off, though.
Mike, Zogby said that in the 20% of his tracking poll taken after Iowa, he had Obama increasing by 8 points and Hillary declining by 4.
This poll has already leaked. It has Obama and Edwards +3 since their last poll and Hillary -1. Obama 33
Perhaps people of New Hampshire would like to make their own decision and think all this coronation of King Obama a bit premature? I know that the young ones who dote on Obama on these pages don't like to hear such news. They would just like everyone else to get out of their way and bow to the king. But, then maybe people don't like coronations and actually would like to hear some more substance. Where is the beef?
Perhaps people of New Hampshire would like to make their own decision and think all this coronation of King Obama a bit premature? I know that the young ones who dote on Obama on these pages don't like to hear such news. They would just like everyone else to get out of their way and bow to the king. But, then maybe people don't like coronations and actually would like to hear some more substance. Where is the beef? Jack, that's a comment you hear a lot in some quarters (about both Obama and Hillary), but when I hear it I'm moved to ask the same question: Where's the beef? It's not as though Obama's New Hampshire team is going around with Hypno-Rays telling everyone to vote for him. Nor is he acting as though he doesn't have to keep making his case to the people -- or did you miss the articles floating around the blogosphere about the three gajillion people who showed up in Nashua to hear him? The voters of New Hampshire, independently, saw his victory in Iowa, and his support increased as a result. That's not, like, an entirely surprising trend. I said this to Obama-backers when Clinton was "cruising to a coronation," and I'll say it again now that the tables are turned: Get. A. Grip.
The Republican numbers have McCain up 6%. And the Research 2000/Concord Monitor poll has very similar numbers as this, with no Obama bounce at all, with Barack up 34% to 33%. Among the GOP, McCain is up 6% also. So is Romney in a bigger hole than Clinton?
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Wouldn't that be, uh, a huge outlier? ARG has Obama up on Hillary 38-26, and Rasmussen had it 37-27 -- two pretty consistent results.
Posted by Daniel Munz | January 5, 2008 5:05 PM