« Headline Of The Week | Main | The Table: Brokered Primaries? And Beat The Press! » Polling Update25 Jan 2008 08:52 am MSNBC/McClatchy's survey of Republicans in Florida: Their survey of Democrats in South Carolina: And the national NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll of Democrats shows Barack Obama picking up nine points over the past month and Hillary Clinton staying where she is. She seems to have a floor and ceiling in the mid-to-upper 40s, whilst Obama's ceiling has wide-open skylights. Comments (8)
Not true. I've seen polls with Obama ahead in Georgia and Wisconsin. 
Clinton pulled 47% in the WSJ poll which means she's near the magic 50% and still a lot of undecideds. She got about 55% of the vote in MI. Even SC seems to be nudging in her favor after predictions of a landslide for Obama. She's probably going to be in the high fifties in FL and will win over 16 at minimum of super Tuesday states. Against this background the prospects for Obama look very bleak which is why the bookies odds which did nudge in his favor for a while have now swung decisively back in her favor.
She seems to have a floor and ceiling in the mid-to-upper 40s, whilst Obama's ceiling has wide-open skylights. Nice thought, but where are the concrete poll numbers to back it up? Indeed, even as the media and pundit's hunt the Clintons and fawn over Obama, he still trails her by 15 points: WSJ/NBC Clinton 47 Clinton is the only candidate, either Democrat or Republican to pass 50% in the national polls on multiple occasions. Further, Obama has failed to break through the upper-thirties in any national poll. I understand that you in the DC media believe that Obama is the second coming, but he needs better poll numbers before he transfigures through your "skylights" and ascends to the heavens.
Until there is more widespread campaigning by Obama, the national polls are giving a false choice. I would guess HRC has 95%+ name recognition. In the early states where Obama runs a real campaign the Clinton lead evaporates. To sight Clinton exceeeding 55% in MI running unopposed is a great example of the choice fantasy. Obama needs to do better, and I'm feeling pretty confident that he will, if for no other reason than he will not be knocked out of this race by Feb 5. It's a delegate race, that he's barely leading, and with no winner-take all states, hanging in there (against both of the Clintons) is a feat unto itself.
Obama cannot beat the Clintons. They have already made him the AA candidate, and Obama cannot change that. The democrats are stuck with the Clintons. I voted in early voting in Florida for JRE. He is the only democrat who has a chance of winning the GE.
Rosie, if Obama cannot beat the Clintons, then the Clintons haven't got the memo. They're not just playing hardball. They've put razors in the hardballs. Just saw this in the comments of another blog: http://www.ondayone.org/node/381 Bullying tactics of Barack Obama against Hillary may be a signal for all women in this country. Watch out! WomanVoter at 1/25/2008 12:24PM Barack Obama is using bullying tactics in his comments about Hillary. He's not focusing on what needs to happen here-a healing of racial and sexual wounds that go deep and cause real pain. He is furthering that pain for women. His treatment of Hillary will reflect how he treats womens' issues if he is elected. He's a black man who should be accutely aware of the stereotype of black men abusing their women. I don't want him in power if he can't behave better than he has been doing. That's just unbelievable. But it's the Clintons. I believe it.
Note: The formatting didn't work right. "That's just unbelievable. But it's the Clintons. I believe it." is me. The quote ends with "has been doing."
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The problem (for Obama) is that he isn't winning anywhere. In no state, except South Carolina and Illinois, do polls show Obama winning. Can't get the nomination that way.
Posted by ProfnickdD | January 25, 2008 10:38 AM