Snow In Michigan Tomorrow

Helps or hurts who?

It's supposed to snow all over Michigan tomorrow. Not a major storm—just accumulations of a couple of inches. But it may be good for Romney: He's doing better among people who already have sent in absentee ballots than among late deciders, who may be breaking for McCain. Also, his stronghold is the metro Detroit area; in Grand Rapids and other outstate areas, where the weather often is more severe and the areas more rural, McCain and Huckabee do well. Finally, Michigan has an open primary, meaning that McCain could benefit from Democrats who cross over—but in crummy weather, only the most motivated Democrats will turn out.

In 1990, bad weather helped elect John Engler as governor—he was an upset winner, and almost certainly benefited from a low turnout.

Comments

Why are you ignoring your commenters? Your post below with the CNN poll is confusing, at best, as it states numbers not in line with others. If your figures are correct, can you please explain how that poll differs from the one more widely known?

Posted by cms | January 14, 2008 6:04 PM

It was just a typo...let it go. Yeah, he should fix it, but it's pretty clear what happened so there shouldn't more than but a moment's confusion.

Posted by Bryan | January 14, 2008 6:12 PM

I am so jealous of Mitt Romney.. I always wanted to grow up to be the person who won an election because of bad weather and low turnout.

Posted by Gary | January 14, 2008 6:31 PM

Step away from the pointless speculation.

Trust me you'll feel better.

Posted by matt | January 14, 2008 8:44 PM

Hello, Marc-

Without any doubt, if it does snow or even if it is just cold and unpleasant, it favors Mitt. McCain needs as many Democrats and independents to turn out as possible. In a partisan primary, it is likely that turnout would be limited primarily to partisans. Anything that limited turnout (whether it was the weather, a contested Democratic primary, etc.) would work to Mitt's advantage.

But I think these things even out over time. The weather was warm and pleasant in NH last week. McCain's margin of victory was wide enough that it didn't matter, fortunately - he would have won even w/o cooperation from the weather. So perhaps he might not need it this time, either...

Posted by ElectionNightHQ.com (McCain site) Publisher | January 14, 2008 9:01 PM

Agreed. Don't forget that the weather in Michigan and in Iowa was gorgeous which was a big factor in the big turnout. And the Zogby poll out this morning shows that 22% of the voters could be registered Democrats -- certainly a big number.

Posted by Dan | January 14, 2008 9:14 PM

This is a primary to help determine the Republican nominee, and ANYBODY can vote in it. Does this seem unfair to anybody else? Every poll that has come out recently shows Romney winning among Republicans....and we are reduced to hoping for bad weather to keep as many Democrats out of the polling booth as possible. Romney won the Republican vote in New Hampshire, and turned out more than enough voters to win in any normal set of Iowa Caucuses. And the result is that McCain has to be stopped before he gets the kind of momentum going that would make him unstoppable. And he's only won 1 state! Pitiful, just plain pitiful.

Posted by Dave | January 14, 2008 9:58 PM

Snow doesn't bother Michiganders. No effect.

Posted by DDP | January 15, 2008 9:17 AM