The Best Pollster in Florida, Rob Schroth, Has New Numbers

And Rudy Giuliani is in third.
McCain: 25
Romney: 23
Giuliani: 15

** The poll was conducted AFTER Fred Thompson dropped.

** The sample size is 800 likely voters

** Did I mention: Schroth and his partner Tom Eldon are generally considered the best of the non-partisan political pollsters in the state. (Mason Dixons' folks are a close second -- or maybe tied -- heck, I'm a humanist -- they're all the best.)

The poll was conducted for several news outlets, including the St. Petersburg Times and the Miami Herald.

Comments

No Marc,

It was conducted before Thompson dropped out:

"The poll included actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who dropped out of the race Tuesday afternoon."

Posted by Mike | January 23, 2008 5:43 PM

Here is the latest poll:

PPP Poll: Romney Takes Florida Lead After Thompson Exit

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida -- the first taken after Fred Thompson ended his presidential bid -- shows Mitt Romney leading among Republicans with 28%, followed by Sen. John McCain at 25%, Rudy Giuliani at 19% and Mike Huckabee at 15%.

Key finding: "The key to Romney's lead is the immigration issue. 15% of the state's GOP voters listed immigration as their biggest concern and within that group, 50% support Romney compared to just 14% for McCain. It isn't the biggest issue in the state -- the economy and the war in Iraq were listed by more respondents -- but it is the one creating the greatest separation between one candidate and the rest of the pack."

Posted by Mark | January 23, 2008 6:02 PM

here is the link to the PPP poll:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/01/23/ppp_poll_romney_takes_florida_lead_after_thompson_exit.html#disqus_thread

Mitt is going to beat the angry old McCain.

Posted by Mark | January 23, 2008 6:03 PM

I'm predicting that Romney will win Florida and go all the way to the general election against Hillary.

Posted by independent | January 23, 2008 6:04 PM

Mitt Romney is the only Republican that can be elected in November. It's only a matter of time before all Republicans realize this and the polls reflect it.

There is no question this election will be about the economy and Romney is the only guy the Republicans can field who can win on those matters. He has an impeccable resume' with law and business degrees from Harvard and an undeniable history of turning things around. The more time moves forward, the more it appears
America is on the brink of financial collapse and John McCain hasn't demonstrated any understanding of economics. And while he is a great warrior, if we don't get our financial house in order we won't be able to afford a military for the President to command so our finances have to be Job 1.

If Mitt can win in Massachusetts which is the bluest state in the Union, he can win anywhere. People will ultimately vote in '08 for who can rescue America economically and it has to be Romney.

Posted by Ci2Eye | January 23, 2008 6:40 PM

Does Marc even bother reading the comments?

I've noticed he doesn't bother correcting mistakes when they're pointed out to him.

Posted by Mike | January 23, 2008 7:25 PM

There were a total of FOUR Florida polls released this afternoon alone. Two have McCain up, two have Romney up and Giuliani comes in second twice -- underscoring that this is really anybody's race. Full roundup of the four polls here.

Posted by Daniel | January 23, 2008 8:34 PM

"Mitt Romney is the only Republican that can be elected in November. It's only a matter of time before all Republicans realize this and the polls reflect it."

Uhhh... No.

Mitt Romney is a Mormon. At lot of the GOP base in the South think Catholics are Satan worshipers and there's no way they will vote for a Mormon. (I'm not saying a majority feel this way, but enough to swing the election making it nearly impossible for him to be elected.)

Posted by C.S.Strowbridge | January 23, 2008 9:14 PM

Why is it ok to be bigoted in statements concerning a Mormon's chance at the presidency?

Is it ok to say that a Mormon has a better chance than a black man? Or vice-versa?

Is it ok to say a Mormon has a better chance than Hillary? (an unpopular woman)

All three groups have their share of bigots against them for President, so I'd say a Mormon stands a great chance if you're playing that game.

Posted by Scott | January 23, 2008 10:15 PM

Again, this poll was conducted BEFORE Thompson dropped out on the afternoon of the 22nd. This poll ran from the 20th to the 22nd.

Posted by Greg | January 24, 2008 1:44 AM

To C.S. Stowbridge,

I realize the Mormon issue will continue to dog Romney but I think the number one issue come November will be the economy. McCain demonstrates virtually no understanding of it or how to fix it while Romney answers questions about it quickly and adeptly.

This morning I watched McCain on CNN and when he was asked by John Roberts about the economy, his quick answer was that we need to cut spending in Washington and then he quickly went into his standard spiel about being in a war with “radical Islamic extremists” and the threat of “violent jihad". It was apparent that he had no real grasp of economic issues.

Nominating McCain would be nominating the guy to deal with the issue of 2007 but not the issues facing America in 2008 and beyond.

Now back to the Mormon question. I agree it is important in the primary and has no doubt cost Romney votes but that was largely because the media and Huckabee made it a bigger issue than it should be. I think the focus will be off of his religion in the General Election. Here's why:

1) Religion is far more important to Republicans than the electorate in general so among all voters it won’t be as critical.
2) Republicans will support the party’s nominee in spite of religion simply because a Mormon represents the values of the party.
3) The nominee will either run against Hillary who has never demonstrated any particular affinity for religion or matters of faith during her many years in public life. Only when she decided to run for national office did she speak for the first time of "her faith" but it was brief and didn't seem genuine so it's unlikely she would make religion an issue. Or Obama is the other possible challenger facing the Republican nominee and he too has been dogged by his ties to Islam and his "black power" church that has honors Lewis Farrakhan. I think it is also unlikely he would want to play the religion card given his background. Either nominee will not be a Mike Huckabee-type who will keep the focus centered on faith.

So, if the Mormon subject fades from the discourse and the focus remains on the economy, I think Romney is only Republican left that can be elected. Remember also that he won in Massachusetts which is the bluest state in the Union so if he can get Democrats to vote for him there because of their state's economic woes, he can surely win over the rest of the states.

Posted by Ci2Eye | January 24, 2008 12:05 PM

This morning I watched McCain on CNN and when he was asked by John Roberts about the economy, his quick answer was that we need to cut spending in Washington and then he quickly went into his standard spiel about being in a war with “radical Islamic extremists” and the threat of “violent jihad". It was apparent that he had no real grasp of economic issues.

That's a complete non-sequitur. When a candidate redirects from one topic to another, it means they want to focus on the second thing, not that they have no grasp of the first.

I have my issues with McCain, and most of them are economic, but to say he has no grasp of the concept -- and to cite the above as some sort of evidence of this -- is absurd.

Posted by Punditish | January 24, 2008 12:25 PM

Punditish,

Take a look at the video and see what you think about McCain's answers.

While I would agree with your assesment that candidates often attempt to get "on message" as quickly as possible and redirect the discussion.

Perhaps my words stating he has "no grasp" were a bit of an exaggeration but I believe the premise remains that economic matters are not a McCain strong suit. He is seemingly changing his position on the Bush tax cuts and doesn't offer the depth of knowledge on the subject that will likely be needed to deal with the myriad of financial issues facing America in the near future.

Posted by Ci2Eye | January 24, 2008 1:25 PM