The CNN/WMUR Poll

Clinton.....33....Obama.....33......Edwards 20....

McCain 33.....Romney 27.......

** McCain;s favorability rating is greater than 80%. That's an enormous ballast for McCain and a signal of the tough challenge facing Romney. Romney and McCain are seen as equally electable.

** Independents say they're choosing Democrats by a ratio of 5.5 to 4.5. ... down from 6 to 3 in April of '07.

** 49% of Democrats are either leaning or undecided...

** 32% of Dems think Clinton best represents Dems like themselves

** Clinton and Obama are seen as equally electable...

** Only 16% of New Hampshire Dems say Obama has the "right" experience to be president

** Only 28% of Dems think Clinton is the one to bring "needed change" to the country

Comments

I think that the media plays some very poor roles in these elections. Christopher Hitchens made some good points about polls and media. Equally is the New Hampshire and national rebuilding of McCain. He ran his campaign into the ground. He still has all the qualities, anger, dislikeablity, and illegal immigration positions. He cries about how the 2000 election was stolen from him. Then he spends a whole debate of juvenile, officer lounge, snideness.

"McCain;s favorability rating is greater than 80%."

Posted by mikeVA | January 6, 2008 9:09 AM

If Senator Obama wins in New Hampshire, the Democratic Primaries are over. The media will declare him the winner and both Clinton and Edwards will have to think about dropping out rather than become a laughing stock. The Democratic Primary season will probably be over 6 days after they started with two states no only choosing the Democratic nominee but probably choosing the President given the collapse of the Republican Party.

Posted by superdestroyer | January 6, 2008 9:46 AM

Marc, why would you waste your time to dissect that poll? Seriously. 397 voters? +/- 5.5%? There are so maany other polls that have been released with much larger samples.

It's also the only poll now showing significant movement for Obama. Zogby's tracking poll this morning even shows Obama was up 8 points in yesterdays polling alone. Rasmussen is going to be showing Obama up 12. ARG showed Obama up 12. And yet the only poll reported at the debate and by the people posting about this race is a WMUR poll of the smallest sample size of all, showing the least amount of movement. I'm not sure what the angle is, to have the public shocked about how big he finally wins by?

Posted by Ben | January 6, 2008 10:12 AM

By now showing, I mean NOT showing.

Posted by Ben | January 6, 2008 10:14 AM

** 32% of Dems think Clinton best represents Dems like themselves

You;ve got this mixed up: 32% of Dems think Obama best represents Dems like themselves, 28% think the same of Clinton (page 10))

Posted by Dave | January 6, 2008 10:20 AM

I hope this holds up on Tuesday.

I hope Romney continues to overplay the victim role. We need him to completely meltdown.

Play for Mc

Posted by RothNRA | January 6, 2008 11:06 AM

whts noticable is favorability ratings of obama among republican voters 56% almost same as huckabee !!!! unbelievable!! this guy really is a phenomenon!!

Posted by Chaitanya | January 6, 2008 11:14 AM

The media are doing their best to manipulate the public into stupidly voting for a reapeat of 1996.

The media-beloved old ex-warhorse who "suffered for us" and thus, like Dole, the unelectable sentimental favorite who "deserves" the Presidential shot against the Dem they actually want to win, after the set-up is complete. Hillary or Obama.

First they have to pidgeon-hole the competent Republican candidates - Romney and Thompson - into fatal flaws they tell the public make the two unacceptable. Romney is plastic! Fred is lazy, lacks fire in his gut, and would just spend his whole Presidency kicked up in a Lazyboy sipping sourmash when he wasn't banging his trophy wife.

Then Pastor Huckleberry, Mr 9/11, and Mr. POW will be easy prey for the media to tear up.

1. Pastor Huckleberry is a Flat-Earther, a creationist who believes in a 6,000 year-old Earth and has corruption problems.

2. Mr. 9/11 has so much baggage and the press is keeping all that powder dry in case he is the nominee. If Kerik wasn't about to be indicted, they would have quashed that too, until the time was right.

3. McCain is unfit on so many levels. Much of the Republican Party considers him treacherous, untrustworthy, with a huge mean streak. He has betrayed them time and time again. At 72, he would be the oldest person elected in history, and he has major health issues. Worse, he is the old man of the Old Order - working in the Congress since the Navy assigned him there in 1977. 30 years of old politics with his "good friends" in the Inside the Beltway club. Passed over for Admiral on grounds of adultery and temperment. Uses the passive-aggressive "my good friend" form of address regularly. Famous for his outbursts, vendettas on Capital Hill. Also the least-educated candidate on either side with the lowest grades and test records.

As time goes by, Barack Obama continues to get a pass from his fawning media boosters, like McCain and Pastor Huckleberry. His main pass is refusal of the media to focus on how qualified he actually is. Meanwhile, while Hillary is the media's #2 in case Obama somhow implodes - they have started to throw her under the bus as part of the same "old order establishment" McCain is a charter member of, and even the NYTimes has abandoned her with their 1st stories in 16 years about how much of a co-Governor or co-President Ms. Rodham actually was...."She never held a secret security clearance, never attended a Security Council meeting, never saw the daily intelligence brief. When Bill made his most critical foreign policy decisions on Bosnia, Sudan - Hillary was barely speaking to him."

Posted by Chris Ford | January 6, 2008 11:18 AM

Conservative elites are trying to ram Romney down our throats.

And failing miserably.

Rush Limbaugh is about to find out what we've suspected for awhile; the news of his power and influence has been greatly exaggerated.

Posted by RothNRA | January 6, 2008 11:56 AM

Romney is done, right? This poll shows that NH Republicans are buying into what cost Mitt Iowa and are liking McCain as an alternative.

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by matt | January 6, 2008 1:06 PM

You might have mentioned the trend line behind the finding that Obama and Clinton are "equally electable": Since CNN's last poll -- which concluded just five days before this one did -- Clinton has lost a net 22 points -- !!! -- on the poll's electability question.

In the last poll, Clinton had a solid 2-to-1 electability edge on Obama. Asked which candidate was the most electable, 45% said Clinton and 22% said Obama.

In this poll -- post-Iowa -- Clinton has dropped 9 points to 36% and Obama has gained 13 points to 35%.

So Obama has completely closed the electability gap.

Posted by horizonr | January 6, 2008 1:30 PM

Still spinning for Hillaryland, huh Marc?

Anyone catch the "Matthews Meter" poll this morning on the Chris Matthews Show? All 12 of Matthews regulars said Obama will get the Dem nomination (12-0!).

More interestingly, Pat Healy said there is some thinking in Hillaryland that she better not go too far in attacking Obama so as to make her too toxic and ruin her eventual shot at Senate Majority leader. Amazing what a difference a week makes.

Posted by David | January 6, 2008 1:55 PM

Hi Marc, I'm a huge fan of the Atlantic--it's the only magazine I subscribe to. I've been reading your reports daily, and I'd feel a whole lot better about continuing to do so if you'd fix the mistake mentioned earlier.

Your own link does say on page 10 that Obama beats Clinton 32-28 on the question "Who best represents Democrats like you."

Thanks for the frequent updates!

Posted by Jessica | January 6, 2008 4:29 PM

The weather is sunny and in the 50's for all around New Hampshire on Tuesday. :)

Posted by rikyrah | January 6, 2008 8:13 PM