The Feel Of The Ground: The Republicans

** The weather is going to be as good as it gets for a January in Iowa. Very conducive to a high-turnout caucus.

** The enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans is evident even in these separate, partisan caucuses. Iowa is a swing state; Republican activists I've spoken with are pessimistic that any Republican could win here in 2008.

** John McCain returns to the state today, and there's a good change he finishes in third or fourth place. I do think that polls may overstate his caucus support in that his organization here just isn't that robust and the multiplier effect that organizations tend to have will be limited. Still -- there's a good possibility he finishes third. That would be an amazing accomplishment, and he might be one of the three or so stories the press has the attention span to cover out of Iowa.

** Conversely, Fred Thompson's support may be understated in the polls...his organization seems to be larger than McCain's.

** It's hard to say whether the enthusiasm accompanying Mike Huckabee from event-to-event -- he drew 2000 at one step yesterday -- will translate into success at the caucuses. His Iowa organization still seems rather bare-bones, and the outside groups that are supposed to be helping him seem to be incompetent. The total unknown is the work of the informal network of pastors who've been touting Huckabee's virtues... but if folks at his events don't know where to caucus, or when to show up, then as much as they like him, he'll leave their love in Iowa. Another possibility: the polls understate his support, because evangelicals are among the groups who don't like to talk to pollsters.

Comments

"That would be an amazing accomplishment, and he might be one of the three or so stories the press has the attention span to cover out of Iowa."

It wouldn't be one of the top three stories. It'd be a second tier story. Your top three Friday morning stories:

1) Edwards wins Iowa!
2) Clinton loses Iowa!
3) Romney or Huckabee wins Iowa!

McCain's 3rd and Obama's 2nd will be second tier stories.

Posted by Petey | January 2, 2008 9:12 AM

I think Huckabee is going to blow it out in Iowa. Romeny may have the organization but Huckabee has the love right now from the social conservatives and they are going to caucus for him; especially since he's on the cusp of making it. I just think he has the mommentum and that isn't going to be stopped by his gaffes. Which is a real problem for the Republican establishment because if they try to decimate him they're going to lose evangelicals and social conservatives and will not have a coalition to win.

I always thought the crack-up theory of the Republican party was over-stated; but I'm starting to think its not.

Posted by Rhoda | January 2, 2008 9:28 AM

Iowa will show some intelligence and Fred Thompson will surprise alot of people with his support. Fred gets it and the voters in Iowa will show that.

Posted by Dave P | January 2, 2008 11:30 AM

Petey -

I'm leaning towards agreeing with that...though if Biden/Richardson have any deals to make, it's smarter for them to make them with Obama or Hillary...and that could help quite a bit.

Until recently, Edwards has been crushing people in 2nd choice votes. The last couple of polls have that tightening though. But...I still see him getting tons of 2nd choice votes and winning this thing. Maybe...either that or Obama! Ha...

Posted by Democrats Against Hillary | January 2, 2008 12:39 PM

I love the way my wife set the stage on this issue. If you were going to have brain surgery and you had every one of these candidates as an option for which doctor you would select - who would you chose (and were talking about the front runners)? Docter A: Even though Doctor A would have the knowledge and expertise in running a hospital and maybe a few good surgeries under his belt, but was always second guessing himself and "Flip-Flopping" on what choices he was making while you are under sedation and couldn't be firm on what he believed - is this the one you would pick? Or Doctor B: Maybe you would select the higher ground with Doctor B that has had little experience in this type of surgery and his controversial procedures are becoming a big concern for his Liability Insurance provider, but Hey, he is a local leader in the most popular church in town - would you pray a long prayer and select this doctor? Or Doctor C: This surgeon has been there in the most intense surgeries and has the experience and understanding of what new procedures are a viable option for your particular needs and also has a plan for your recovery through rehab and weekly exams. I don't think there is any doubt that you would select Doctor C - and that doctor's name is FRED THOMPSON!!! I don't know about the rest of the country but my wife has a very good point about all this. Experience, Integrity and Honesty - to me that is why Fred Thompson is hands down the best man for the job. God Bless America!!!

Posted by K Taylor | January 2, 2008 11:37 PM

I have no doubts about the doctor that I would choose. DR. RON PAUL!

Posted by Andrew Gingrich | January 3, 2008 8:11 AM

Americans have had enough of special interest and multi-national corporate candidates. Clinton, Obama, Huckabee and McCain are not what America needs.

America needs an American president.

Don't throw your vote away.

Posted by Campbell | January 3, 2008 10:48 AM