The Final Michigan Track

Steve Mitchell's final Michigan tracking poll shows Mitt Romney with 36%, John McCain with 29% and Mike Huckabee with 12%.

The Romney campaign believes that if the percentage of independents or Democrats who vote in the Republican primary is kept below 20%, they've got a good shot.

They are wary, though, of predicting what would happen if Romney were to fall to McCain. Reporters can write "Lazarus Rises" just so many times, and even though the media in Michigan has been very good to Romney, the national press is not inclined to give him a third shot if he earns yet another silver.

New Hampshire and Michigan, in that order, are Romney's best states. Michigan's perhaps the only state where Romney can run what amounts to a gubernatorial message campaign. McCain's heavy emphasis on national issues and national security plans better almost everywhere else.

Comments

There you have it, "the national press is not inclined to give him a third shot if he earns yet another silver." Do we need any more proof as to who the real voters in this country are? Who elected the national press to pick our president?

Posted by bb | January 15, 2008 10:37 AM

For what it's worth, the final Zogby tracking poll also has Romney rising and tying McCain, so it's nowhere near the proportion in this poll.

And of course Romney doesn't really have anywhere to go from here. Michigan is the best place for him to make his case against McCain and that role will now go to Giuliani and Huckabee who will have to try and start derailing McCain which they have not been willing to do for now.

Posted by Dan | January 15, 2008 11:06 AM

New Hampshire and Michigan, in that order, are Romney's best states.

And what do you think are McCain's best states?

Posted by right | January 15, 2008 11:31 AM

Could someone please explain to me the logic of John McCain in defense of his attack ads. After he and the Huckster blistered Romney for his ads, and pretended to take the high road, now McCain justifies his own attack ads by claiming that he needs to defend his own record. Fair enough, I suppose. So if he is just defending his record, his ads should simply counter whatever misperceptions he feels his opponent has put forth.

But this hasn't been the strategy. McCain's ads have directly attacked Romney's character and experience, usually in the condescending tone that has become so typical of McCain's public persona. Just how, exactly, does calling Romney a "phony" equate to defending his (McCain's) record?

Its amazing to me that McCain is getting away with this, especially after his public pronouncements that "attack ads don't work." The hypocrisy is stunning -- both with McCain and with the media.

Another point -- McCain is touting his superior "judgment" by pointing to his position on the surge. Again, fair enough. But if he's going to tout his judgment on one issue, then he must also answer to the fact that it was that same "judgment" that led him to take disastrous positions on McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, the Gang of 14, and the list goes on and on.

John McCain served his country and we owe him a debt of gratitude for the sacrifices he made in the military. I'm sure he has had some positive impact as a Senator. But the bottom line is that he is a mean-spirited, petty, hot-headed, dishonest, marginally competent politician who is only in government because he couldn't succeed in the private sector. He would be a disaster as the Republican nominee.

Posted by Bill Stone | January 15, 2008 11:59 AM

While I'm a Huckabee man and not campaigning for McCain, I'd say he is one of the few who says what he means and means what he says. Romney, on the other hand, has been lying about McCain and Huckabee -- especially Huckabee. It appears his source is Club for Growth, which is lying by omission. Possibly Romney is not aware of this, but if so, he is not aware of many things. For example, he has been misleading people about the FairTax. He's not taken time to familiarize himself about it, so why is he making these ignorant comments about it? If, in the unlikely event Romney is elected, would he be as ignorant, misleading, or outright lying while in office as well?

Posted by Brian Pearson | January 15, 2008 12:19 PM

Facts are stubborn things, why don't you try to absorb a few, Dufus'?

Romney still leads in Delegates! And will, even if he finishes second in Michigan.

He's got 30 as of now, next closest, Huck at 21.
Romney picked up more delegates by winning Wyoming (8), than McCain got last week (7) winning NH.

This is a race for "delegates", period.

This is no longer about who the "Press Wants To Anoint" nor is it about early "Momentum" this time.

Face it MSM, you're just not as important as you think you are!

The compressed format has changed the dynamics, as it should be.

Let's play this out and see who is the last man standing. Romney has deep, full pockets, and he ain't going anywhere, just yet. This game is just getting started. MSM and pundits be damned.

If all Romney does is prevent Hucabee or McCain from ever getting the nomination and preserving the Reagan legacy, then he will have provided a great service to this country.

Remember, that Romney is a great CEO, going from plan A to B, C, or D, etc. is his lifes blood. He loves this challenge.

Remember also, that Romney has received more votes and has more delegates than any other candidate, at this point.

This time 'round it will be the people who nominate their candidates, and not pontificating talking heads.

Also, Romney will not let democrats and independents chart his course. Is Anybody telling the other candidates they are doomed if they don't win today? No.

If this is too complicated for you Bubbas, think Nascar. Cumulative finishes can trump first place finishes, especially early on.

Two or three silvers and a gold trumps all others at this point.

The Glory of God is intelligence.
Try some you might like it.

ajarizona

Posted by ajarizona | January 15, 2008 12:25 PM

the national press is not inclined to give him a third shot if he earns yet another silver.

I hope you know how fucking arrogant that sounds in reference to a man that will have the highest delegate totals going into S Carolina and the only one who was competitive in all the early primaries.

McCain's heavy emphasis on national issues and national security plans better almost everywhere else.

Yeah, right. Like Romney is not talking about national issues and national security as he also directly addresses some Michigan concerns.

And the longer McCain goes on the more difficult it will be for his fawning media to conceal his nasty temperment, his vindictive streak,dishonesty about his own flip-flops, and long history of creating policy disasters and doing backroom treachery against fellow Republicans.

McCain promises the same "my way or the highway, I need no stinking consultants, because I know best in my gut what to do" management style. Which is basically the arrogant management philosophy of his fellow stubborn fighter jock
Dubya. Just more honest, if you believe McCain. Which the media does, while the Base does not.

And inevitably, we get back into McCains immigration amnesty, his conversion since 2000 from Episcopal to Baptist, his antics in the Senate on judicial holds, McCain Feingold, McCain-Lieberman new regulations on consumer goods, Gang of 14. His neocon advisors and his apparant desire to bomb Iran on slight provocation.

On national security I far prefer someone like Romney or Obama or Thompson who will consult with expert advisors and officials of the other Party and only then commit to action if time permits -to McCains answer that he doesn't need to consult to act because he has "done it" all his life and knows what to do.

Another thing to watch for is the public getting sick of McCain raging at questions because they offend his POW sensibilites and how his suffering makes him more of an American than many who did not serve. 561 POWs were released from Vietnam. Only McCain has turned milking that into a 35 year long process to advance the career and power and glory of John McCain. An expectation, almost that he was due Admiral selection, Congress, the Presidency..
People got sick of Rudy doing his "9/11. 9/11, I saved America from defeat, 9/11 schtick" - after about 5 years of it being hauled out for every occasion, every huge honorarium, every scandal excused by it - people got sick of thanking him for his herohood and being America's greatest mayor ever because two jets slammed into his city.

And for 6 times longer than Rudy tried making himself synonymous with 9/11, 35 years, McCain has milked his POW entitlement to office and not to be challenged on issues be believes his suffering put off limits...like his crusade for terrorist rights, arguments with other Senators about defense issues, his wanting to meddle in military strategy (ground combat) he never experienced. So far he has gotten away with wrapping himself in a flag to deflect questions about his policy and management style - but no guarantee the POW deference will continue forever.

Posted by chris ford | January 15, 2008 1:15 PM

Hello, Marc, commenters-

NH and Michigan were in fact Mitt's best states. No Massachusetts governor or senator (current or former) had ever lost the presidential primary in neighboring NH. Until 2008.

As for Michigan - the state where he grew up and the one where his father had been a popular governor, and where economic issues play to his strong suit, furthermore... It would be difficult to say what states would be better for him...

Mitt opted to go back up on the air in SC, which would undermine my theory that a loss in Michigan might force him out. It could, of course, be a signal to his forces that he's still playing to win...

Posted by ElectionNightHQ.com (McCain site) Publisher | January 15, 2008 1:32 PM

Ok then how many of those Governors from MA were on the Republican side, running against a man who had won NH by a landslide the last time they ran for the nomination? Answer that and then your bogus question has relevance.

Circumstance is everything. Up until Romney, the circumstances in your stories were pretty much the same year after year leading to the same result.

Posted by sm | January 15, 2008 5:16 PM