The Republicans: What We've Learned So Far

Four primaries and three winners have exposed, according to the dominant media, a Republican party that is listless, demoralized and casting about for unity.

There aren't many Republicans who would disagree.

Here are some thoughts on what can be learned from the first two weeks in January:

(1) Enthusiasm trumps organization. In Iowa, Mike Huckabee had the most enthusiastic supporters, measured empirically; in Michigan, Mitt Romney did; in New Hampshire, John McCain did. In Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney's organization was like a Fortune 500 company compared to his opponents' mom-and-mom shops. (I'm counting the "unofficial" Huckabee pastor networks in the enthusiasm column.) In the absence of a compelling master narrative, voters have turned to the folks they just plain like.

(2) Momentum seems to skip the next state up and seems to benefit the person who exceeded expectations, rather than the winner. This is a common enough trend. Though Mike Huckabee got no bounce in New Hampshire or Michigan, he's shot up in South Carolina and Florida. McCain received some energy after his fourth place finish in Iowa. As each state takes it turn in the spotlight, voters seem to become more resistant to the previous contests and more independent.

(3) Economic anxiety is prevalent and pervasive and growing, and Republicans who fail to understand this and respond creatively to it will do poorly. Remember, what professional conservatives -- i.e, those who spend their day's work being conservative, either as strategists or writers or lobbyists -- think a candidate should do is not what Republican voters seem to expect them to do. In South Carolina, Mike Huckabee may wind up receiving support from the same white working class demographic that might have supported a Dick Gephardt candidacy in 1988.

(4) Republicans don't seem receptive to a national message; they seem to prefer candidates who run like governors, who inspire feelings of solidarity, who cater (or pander) to their anxieties.

(5) Mitt Romney's ability to tap his own fortune has influenced every race in every state more than just about any single factor. His ability to flood Michigan with television spots helped him; he did well (enough) in New Hampshire mostly because of his television; he's going to be competitive in Florida because of his television.

(6) Good campaigns matter, but candidates unfettered matter more. Huckabee was unfettered in Iowa; McCain felt at home in New Hampshire; Romney was a Michigander -- each man bonded in states whose electorates seem to have been created just for them.

(7) Playing everywhere works, so far. Mitt Romney has a delegate lead and will probably have a delegate lead until (at least) the Florida primary regardless of what happens in South Carolina or Nevada.

(7) Former McCain chief strategist John Weaver's instincts may be proven right, after all. Running McCain as a conservative, helping him to heal relationships with professional conservatives, acknowledging, and then plotting to crush the South Carolina firewall, believing that Rudy would ultimately flame out as a candidate, believing that Thompson's appeal would be narrow...

(8) The three dimensional chess games that are the Democratic and Republican nominating contests have not influenced each other, so far -- Rudy Giuliani did not get a pass for skipping Iowa because Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton, for example, something that Giuliani's campaign hoped would happen.

(9) As a corollary, the national political press corps seems capable of covering two competitive races at once and has not unduly focused on arguably more exciting Democratic contest.

(10) The RNC's sanctions against Michigan, South Carolina and Florida did not prevent them from remaining competitive.

Comments

I think the Repub race is pretty straightforward. By process of elimination, John McCain is too old, Mike Huckabee is too erratic, Rudy Guliani is too ugly, and Fred Thompson is too lazy. That leaves Mitt Romney. Not that he is a poor choice or someone to be underestimated by Democratic opponents.

It will boil down to Romney and Hillary. The other candidates on both sides have to score a KO to win the race. Only Clinton and Romney can win on points. The longer the match goes, the more certain they become.

.....hey, "It's Vegas, Baby!" ;)

Posted by robert ethan | January 16, 2008 4:17 PM

The idea that momentum hasn't mattered in this campaign is a fallacy. It has governed the entire race. Huckabee was able to generate enormous enthusiasm among Evangelicals and born-agains in Iowa that ultimately trumped a highly successful GOTV effort by Team Romney. This phenomenon forced Romney to concentrate solely on Iowa for weeks while McCain, who had won New Hampshire overwhelmingly in 2000, was able to focus all of his efforts on putting together a movement in New Hampshire. Once again, with very little time, and after coming in 2nd in Iowa, Mitt had to try to put out the McCain brushfire in New Hampshire. He lost because Obama leaning independents, who were lulled into a false sense of security by the polls, cast votes for McCain in an effort to head off the Romney campaign.

Romney then staked everything on Michigan in an attempt to finally get ahead of the curve, and beat McCain by more than 80,000 votes in a state in which McCain won by 100,000 votes the last time out. Now that Romney has some momentum of his own, watch out. Going into Michigan, McCain actually had so much momentum, generated by a single victory, that he was a Michigan win away from becoming unstoppable. Now, Mitt can go on to win the nomination he has worked so hard for. With his appeal strongest among conservatives, and a raft of closed primaries coming up, nobody will be able to stop him.

Posted by Dave | January 16, 2008 4:22 PM

McCain finished fourth in Iowa, not third. Fred finished third.

Posted by Joel | January 16, 2008 4:27 PM

Joel, ditto for me too. It was disgusting that the Washington media set McCain's Iowa expectations at 3rd place. John McCain came in 4th and they praised him on cable news to victory in New Hampshire. Note to Washington/NYC press: People don't love McCain as much as you do. Come back to listening to the voters, please!

Posted by Tommy Ates, Austin, TX | January 16, 2008 5:50 PM

FACT: Any Republican nominee will face an uphill battle due to percieved errors by Bush(really cheney)- If the democratic candidate is anyone but Hillary this battle MAY be unwinnable.

Problem: Macain too old? too connected?

Thompson: looks too old...& & only runnning for President when the cameras are rolling.

Juliani: is from an area that DOES not appeal to mainstream mainstreet republicans and percieved as too liberal among some.

Romney: Nice guy. Great resume'. Good hair. he is like the Republican version of slick willie.

Governor Huckabee: Erratic? or rational- South Carolina will prove wheter Huckabee is for Real: He needs to take off the kid gloves and put on the brass knuckles...but can he do this effectively. This will tell the tale. I tend to pull for the underdog.

Posted by Tim Kelley, St. Paul, MN | January 16, 2008 6:18 PM

(9) As a corollary, the national political press corps seems capable of covering two competitive races at once and has not unduly focused on arguably more exciting Democratic contest.

How in any way is the Democratic race more exciting? They agree on every issue and they're just trying to work through the identity politics of the whole thing. The Republicans are at war with each other in a six-man race.

Posted by right | January 16, 2008 6:34 PM

John McCain's inability to inflict the death blow on the Romney candidacy means the GOP race is still, of course, wide open. The question may be whether the fracas at the front of the Republican pack becomes an Anyone-But-Huckabee contest. Mike Huckabee's solid third place showing in Michigan, his current strong standing in South Carolina and Florida, and his proven ability to rally evangelical voters will make him a factor through the February 5th "Tsunami Tuesday" events. (It should be noted that Romney narrowly beat Huckabee in Michigan among evangelical or born-again voters 32% to 31%.) Whatever happens to John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson in the Palmetto and Sunshine states, Mike Huckabee will be still be standing.

Needless to say, the Republican establishment is terrified of a Huckabee nomination. (The National Review's Rich Lowry perhaps said it best, declaring it would be an "act of suicide by his party.") And Mike Huckabee isn't helping himself by frightening away voters with his dangerous mix of religion and politics. His statement Monday that Americans need to "amend the Constitution so it's in God's standards" is just the latest to boomerang against his candidacy.

Posted by Furious | January 16, 2008 9:51 PM

I think the Republican establishment is scared to death of a Dr. Ron Paul nomination...........finally, some change! Enough with the fiscally irresponsible candidates ( all of them except for DR. Paul).
Can you have a candidate who has voted more consistently? Has not taken his gov't pension, and most of all, not used his own money to buy votes, or to entertain the most lobbyists? And one who has always voted with his principles?

Vote Ron Paul, vote for freedom.
(By the way , this was not written by some Paulite whacko, (which is a fallacy btw))
This was written by a us government worker who wants REAL change, not the fake promises other candidates espouse.

Posted by julie | January 16, 2008 11:19 PM

the way , this was not written by some Paulite whacko, (which is a fallacy btw))
This was written by a us government worker who wants REAL change,

and, apparently, wants to lose his job.

Posted by Jason C. | January 17, 2008 1:19 PM

Roots of Romney’s “lazy boy” Religion:

MORMONS: [The Encyclopedia Britannica, Thirteenth Edition, London, vol. 18, pp. 842-843, 1926]… a religious sect founded by Joseph Smith… born… December 1805 at Sharon… Vermont, from which place… his parents, who like his grandparents were superstitious, neurotic, seers of visions, and believers in miraculous cures and in heavenly voices and direct revelation, removed to New York, where they settled on a small farm… Joseph, a good natured, lazy boy, suffering from a bad heredity physically and psychically, began to have visions which seem to have accompanied epileptoid seizures… from which he recovered apparently before he became of age. The boy’s father was a digger for hidden treasure… the son became a crystal gazer and by the use of a “peep-stone” discovered the whereabouts of pretended hidden treasure…. It was not until the 22nd of September of 1827 that (as he said) he dug up, on the hill near Manchester, a stone box, in which was a volume… made of thin gold plates… and fastened together by three gold rings. The plates were covered with small writing [supposedly of the reformed Egyptian tongue]… with the golden book Smith claimed that he found a breastplate of gold and a pair of supernatural spectacles, consisting of two crystals set in a silver bow, and called “Urim and Thummin”; by aid of these the mystic characters could be read.

http://popularapostasy.blogspot.com/2008/01/urim-and-thummin.html

Posted by C Smith | January 18, 2008 1:50 AM