In honor of media sensationalism, let's give the top five reasons why New York is far from a fait accompli.
(1) Let's start with the tabloids, which will spend the next week tormenting one of their favorite targets, the Empire State's first couple. The negative stories, day after day, are going to take a bite out of the Clinton campaign. Obama doesn't sell papers. The Clintons do - and the more sensationally negative, the more soap-operatic the stories, the more papers get sold.
(2) Don't forget upstate, where Hillary has won grudging respect. Obama's inclusive, bipartisan shtick plays much better outside of the city.
(3) The delegate selection formulas favor Obama. He can lose the popular vote, and with his strength in majority-minority districts, still win the delegate tally, or at least make it a near-run thing.
(4) The power of advertising. With a few major buys, Obama can bring his case to the people of New York. Hillary, by contrast, has nothing left to say - is there anyone in this state who doesn't have a strong opinion about Hillary?
(5) Two words: Ted Kennedy. For all the Bay State/Empire State rivalry, Kennedy still has a powerful grip on the Democratic base. Scoring the RFK-branch endorsement doesn't particularly help Hillary - after all, she's supposed to be the establishment candidate. Her endorsements are no more than what we expect, Obama's are always stunning coups. That's the price of being the frontrunner. Tell me that, today, blue-collar Democrats all across NY aren't taking a fresh look at Obama. Tell me that voters old enough to remember his brothers won't pay attention to what Teddy has to say. And those are the groups where Obama is weakest.
Still, it's unlikely that Hillary loses outright. But if Obama runs close in NY, Hillary's finished. She needs a substantial edge in the tri-state delegate count to compensate for the southern states and midwestern caucuses she's already effectively cede to Obama. If he can make it close, it'll be enough to win.
Marc Ambinder, an Atlantic associate editor, blogs about politics and Washington. He might also write the occasional post about aviation, national security, and cognitive neuroscience. Mostly politics, though.
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Ah, the tabloids.
In honor of media sensationalism, let's give the top five reasons why New York is far from a fait accompli.
(1) Let's start with the tabloids, which will spend the next week tormenting one of their favorite targets, the Empire State's first couple. The negative stories, day after day, are going to take a bite out of the Clinton campaign. Obama doesn't sell papers. The Clintons do - and the more sensationally negative, the more soap-operatic the stories, the more papers get sold.
(2) Don't forget upstate, where Hillary has won grudging respect. Obama's inclusive, bipartisan shtick plays much better outside of the city.
(3) The delegate selection formulas favor Obama. He can lose the popular vote, and with his strength in majority-minority districts, still win the delegate tally, or at least make it a near-run thing.
(4) The power of advertising. With a few major buys, Obama can bring his case to the people of New York. Hillary, by contrast, has nothing left to say - is there anyone in this state who doesn't have a strong opinion about Hillary?
(5) Two words: Ted Kennedy. For all the Bay State/Empire State rivalry, Kennedy still has a powerful grip on the Democratic base. Scoring the RFK-branch endorsement doesn't particularly help Hillary - after all, she's supposed to be the establishment candidate. Her endorsements are no more than what we expect, Obama's are always stunning coups. That's the price of being the frontrunner. Tell me that, today, blue-collar Democrats all across NY aren't taking a fresh look at Obama. Tell me that voters old enough to remember his brothers won't pay attention to what Teddy has to say. And those are the groups where Obama is weakest.
Still, it's unlikely that Hillary loses outright. But if Obama runs close in NY, Hillary's finished. She needs a substantial edge in the tri-state delegate count to compensate for the southern states and midwestern caucuses she's already effectively cede to Obama. If he can make it close, it'll be enough to win.
Posted by FlyOnTheWall | January 28, 2008 9:15 AM