Tight Races In Nevada, Florida

For Nevada, in a poll conducted for the Reno Journal Gazette:

Obama: 32%
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 27%

McCain: 22%
Giuliani: 18%
Huckabee: 16%
Romney: 15%
Thompson: 11%

And in Florida, the big lede is that Rudy Giuliani's campaign is, indeed, sensitive to momentum, per a Quinnipiac poll.

Giuliani: 22
McCain: 20
Huckabee: 19
Romney: 19

What this also means: if Mitt Romney somehow wins Michigan, he can skip South Carolina and put all his chips down in Florida, and probably come away with a strong showing.

If McCain wins Michigan... he has a better chance to win South Carolina (off the Huckabee / Thompson convergence) and swing into Florida in a good position to dethrone Rudy Giuliani.

Comments

"I'm Hillary Clinton and I approved this strategy to drag down campaign rhetoric"

Posted by Bobby | January 14, 2008 1:24 PM

Bill Clinton at his finest:

The former president said Johnson needs to be "taken at his word," adding that "nobody knew" what he would say and "it wasn't part of any planned strategy."

"This, to me, is another example of [the Obama campaign] wanting a double standard," Clinton said.

Plausible denialability and misdirection. The Clintons are masters.

May they rot in hell.

Posted by Jan | January 14, 2008 1:27 PM

Marc, what's the CW? Does Romney have Jeb Bush's endorsement up his sleeve?

Posted by dry_fish | January 14, 2008 1:31 PM

No comment on Edwards' resurgence? He doesn't have to "win" any states to be relevant, all he needs are enough delegates to keep Clinton or Obama from breaking 50%. If the results on Saturday resemble this poll, he'll do fine in SC and nudge above 15% in the nat'l polls, meaning that he'll be a factor on Feb 5.

Posted by Publius | January 14, 2008 1:36 PM

Obama campaign musice blares as he and his wife takes stage in SC:

"99 problems but the bitch aint one
If you're havin' girl problems i feel bad for you son
I got 99 problems but a bitch ain't one
Hit me"

It is a Jay-Z song called '99 Problems'

http://www.nypost.com/seven/01142008/gossip/pagesix/hillary__barack_rap__rock_142152.htm

I am sure the media won't pick up on this but imagine if Clinton had some racist southern rock tune or country song blaring? Imagine.

Posted by R. Flatts | January 14, 2008 1:47 PM

To R. Flatts,

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Obamas_soundtrack.html#comments

So I've now spent way too much of my morning trying to report out the New York Post's item that Obama had sexist entrance music:

As Obama and his wife, Michelle, strolled triumphantly into his victory party in Des Moines, Iowa, on Jan. 3, Jay-Z's "99 Problems" was blaring. In it, Jay raps, "I got 99 problems, but a bitch ain't one."

It's a provocative scene. But I can't find any evidence that it happened, though it does seem to have been the subject of chatter among staffers of both campaigns.

According both to the Obama campaign and my sources out there, Obama only attended one "victory party" in Des Moines that night -- at which he entered to a U2 song. He His supporters -- though not the candidate -- then then went to the Des Moines restaurant Centro, where nobody's ever heard hip-hop, and didn't that night. There was also a music-free victory conference call with Obama.

But if anybody actually heard this...let me know.

Posted by Lynn | January 14, 2008 3:00 PM

Shut your trap, Flatts. Expect a visitor tonight in Charlotte.

Posted by Barry | January 14, 2008 4:13 PM

McCain will win in South Carolina and use that momentum to win Florida too. Then the rest will fall into his lap.

Romney is just polling too low everywhere to win the nomination imo.

He may get Nevada since he is campaigning there by himself, but the crucial win will be S.C & FL heading into Super Tuesday.

Posted by John | January 17, 2008 1:53 AM

Here is my call for the Democrats:

Obama will win S.C. & Nevada will likely fall to him in a close race.

Then Hillary hits the jackpot on Super Tuesday.

She is pretty much a lock in FL, CA, NY, NJ imo.

Those are huge states.

Posted by John | January 17, 2008 1:56 AM