Turnout On Tuesday

Here's what Secretary of State Bill Gardner projects:

500,000 voters.

90,000 independents choose Obama.

60,000 independents choose McCain.

260,000 votes for Democrats

240,000 votes for Republicans

So -- about 25% of the Republican primary vote will be comprised of independents.

And 33% of the Democratic primary vote will be comprised of independents.

The road forward for John McCain is clear: run close to even among Republicans and get the majority of independents.

A 500,000 project splits the difference between the last presidential electon (674K) and the last gubernatorial election (417K).

Comments

I hope the Obama campaign is asking Gardner to prepare for Presidential election level turnout, so that lines are not too long.

Posted by RaymondA | January 7, 2008 9:17 AM

Way low. It will approach if not exceed presidential election turnout. Motivation in all corners is at an all-time high.

Posted by May Barber | January 7, 2008 9:39 AM

Obama's the big winner either way. Nobody can stop him.

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by matt | January 7, 2008 9:49 AM

The Dem primary voters will be comprised of 45-50% Indies. In 2000, when McCain was relatively more attractive to Indies than in 2008, when Obama is drawing them, the Dems got 40% Indies in their primary. Also, in 2004, w/o a GOP primary, NH Indies got in the habit of voting on the Dem side. As for first-time voters, more Obamaniacs.

Gardner's 33% is way low. And most of the polls model about 40%. If that is also a low estimate, then Obama will win by MORE than the ~10% lead he's showing now.

Posted by Stephen | January 7, 2008 10:24 AM

Here's the dumbest line:

260,000 votes for Democrats
240,000 votes for Republicans

Come on. Dems get at least 30-40% more turnout than GOP.

Posted by Democrats Against Hillary | January 7, 2008 12:59 PM

Hello, Marc, commenters-

I have a McCain-focused site:

Fine analysis, as always - I had a take on it in a previous post, and I just added a second post with Marc's analysis. Here are my thoughts on the subject:

One of the most important things that Senator McCain must do, is to secure a decent share of “undeclared” (i.e., independent) NH voters, who can vote in either primary- and don’t have to decide, until Tuesday.

The key for McCain will be for him to attract as many independent voters as possible, to vote for him in the GOP primary, rather than selecting Democratic ballots. Essentially, he has to do the same thing that Huck did in Iowa. Mitt’s ground operation in Iowa, by all accounts, did a fantastic job. They hit (and might have exceeded) their vote total targets. However, they were deluged by the flood of pro-Huckabee voters that showed up at the polls, which were far greater than they expected.

For McCain, it is essentially the same thing (although in his case, his task is more complicated, because he has to persuade voters to sacrifice their vote in the Democratic primary in order to cast one for him, which Huck did not need to do in Iowa.) If McCain can successfully expand the pool of Republican primary voters, he should be able to prevail.

One factor is that most of Romney’s support comes from Republicans who describe themselves as very conservative. Obviously, very conservative voters are likely to be disproportionately represented in a Republican primary - but by definition, their numbers are finite. In contrast, there are far more moderate Republicans and independents who could potentially vote.

To summarize, McCain has a potentially higher ceiling from which to draw support. He can add a substantial number of voters to the primary electorate, due to his appeal to those larger groups. In contrast, Mitt has more of a ceiling, because he can’t expand the number of very conservative Republicans, beyond what it already is.

Thoughts? Reactions?

Links to the full posts, if anyone is interested:

http://blog.electionnighthq.com/2008/01/07/concord-monitor-nh-secretary-of-state-predicts-record-turnout-for-both-primaries/

http://blog.electionnighthq.com/2008/01/07/concord-monitor-nh-secretary-of-state-predicts-record-turnout-for-both-primaries/

Posted by ElectionNightHQ.com Publisher | January 7, 2008 3:38 PM