2025

So that's the magic number for Democrats.

It DOES NOT include the Florida or Michigan delegates, which the NAACP is urging the party to seat.

If Florida and Michigan were to be seated, 2025 would change... probably to about 2055.

And note: changes in the number of superdelegates may impact the number of delegates needed to nominate. (Note the passing of Rep. Tom Lantos of CA yesterday).. But as of right now, a 2025 is a majority of the new total of 4048 total delegates.

So 2025 it remains.

Comments

The real magic number is 1,627 or half of the pledged delegates. The winner of the pledged delegates gets control over the credentials committee which choses if and how to seat Michigan and Florida. Also, The winner of the pledged delegates will get the majority of the uncommitted super delegates. Most will go with the candidate who wins the most delegates/states/popular vote.

Posted by Mark from NY | February 12, 2008 5:09 PM

Excellent point, Mark. Last I saw, Obama leads the pledged delegate horserace by around 75 delegates, and is around 600 delegates away from hitting that number. We'll see what happens to that lead after tonight.

Posted by Jeff Larson | February 12, 2008 5:21 PM

Julian Bond is ALWAYS consistent. Consistently has his head up his ass.

Posted by Julian smokes rock | February 12, 2008 5:31 PM

Actually, Marc, it's 2024 - that's because Tom Lantos passed away, and Joan Fitz-Gerald stepped down (and her replacement's replacement lives in Michigan. So we've got 4,047 delegates, and it takes 2,024 to win.

Details here:
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

Posted by FlyOnTheWall | February 12, 2008 5:43 PM

"The winner of the pledged delegates gets control over the credentials committee."
I'm not sure this is fully accurate. I believe I saw an explanation (OpenLeft.com?) stating that the credentials committee (167 members, or 167 plus the following 25) includes 25 members appointed by Dean, with the remainder allocated proportionately according to state-by-state primary results. Sorry if that's less than clear, but it was less than clear to me when I read it.
Bottom line, however, is that a simple majority of the pledged delegates does not necessarily translate directly to control of the credentials committee, although it certainly correlates strongly.

Posted by retr2327 | February 12, 2008 6:28 PM

Is the NAACP trying to alienate people?

Posted by Jayhawk Max | February 12, 2008 6:49 PM

"It DOES NOT include the Florida or Michigan delegates, which some random anti-Obama jackass in charge of the NAACP is urging the party to seat."

Fixed.

Posted by John M. | February 12, 2008 7:49 PM

California is holding a special election to fill the Tom Lantos seat in Congress. It will coincide with the June state primary, and if the winner is a Democrat, as seems likely, he or she will become a superdelegate by being elected to Congress. (The convention is not until August.)

Posted by DT | February 13, 2008 2:04 AM