A Tipsheet For Tonight

Tip sheet by poll closing time. All Dem contests allocate most delegates proportionally via CD after 15% candidate viability reallocation.

7:00 pm ET

GA (open) 28% AA, 5% Lat. 13 CDs. (Obama’s margin in DuPage Co, Atlanta…are there enough moderate/conservative whites outside of Atlanta (think college towns like Athens) to keep HRC competitive? Jackson won here in ’88 in a split field, but whites have moved to Rs since then. McCain was endorsed by 2 Sens; watch Cobb Co. returns. Romney got an influential Christian leader endorsement late Monday.

8:00 pm ET

ALABAMA: (open) 26% AA, 2% Lat. 7 CDs, 52 Dem delegates, 45 GOP delegates selected WTA by CD/State. McCain has most of the major endorsements and had an early organization here.

CONNECTICUT: (closed) 9% AA, 9% Lat. 5 CDs. 48 Dem delegates and 27 GOP delegates selected WTA (Obama’s type of Democrat lives in CT and he has many of the major endorsements (including two MOCs), but HRC lives about 20 miles from the CT border.)

DELAWARE (closed) 19% AA, 10 CDs. 15 Dem delegates and 15 GOP delegates selected WTA (Huge crowds greeted Obama)

ILLINOIS (open) 15% AA, 12% Lat. 19 CDs. 153 Dem delegates and 67 GOP delegates elected by slate per CD

MASSACHUSETTS (s/open) 5% AA, 7% Lat, 13 CDs 93 Dem delegates and 40 GOP delegates selected WTA (Obama has key elected officials…large college student population… Romney has huge legacy organization and McCain may have wasted time campaigning here late.

MISSOURI (open) 11% AA, 2% Lat., 9 CDs. 72 Dem delegates and 55 GOP delegates selected WTA (Jefferson County turnout is key for Dems; exurban turnout is key for Romney; watch to see whether Huckabee does better than expected in SW MO. – Jasper Co.). Clinton and Obama each have major African American congressional endorsements. WJC carried MO twice.

NEW JERSEY (s/open) 13% AA, 13% Lat, 13 CDs 107 Dem delegates and 98 GOP delegates selected WTA (Bergen County will be key for HRC; Trenton and Newark for Obama.)

OKLAHOMA (closed) 7% AA, 5% Lat, 8% NatAm, 5 CDs 38 Dem delegates and 38 GOP delegates selected WTA by CD and State (HRC should win easily…)

TENNESSEE (open) 16% AA, 2% Lat. 9 CDs 68 Dem delegates and 52 GOP delegates selected variously. HRC has a strong early vote program here; note it was the first state she went to after SC. Obama, McCain could be helped by independents; watch the Nashville surburbs and Obama’s margin in Memphis and environs..

8:30 pm ET

ARKANSAS (open) 16% AA, 3% Hisp. 4 CDs., 35 Dem delegates, 31 GOP delegates selected winner-take-all by CD. HRC, Huck should win easily.

9:00 pm ET

ARIZONA (closed) 3% AA, 25% Lat. 5% NatAm, 8 CDs, 56 Dem delegates, 50 GOP delegates – winner-take-all.** (Hispanics likely to vote less than proportionally. Virtually all resources concentrated between Tucson and Phoenix. Watch Maricolpa Co. for GOPers. Huge numbers of last minute independents registering as Democrats. Ballot is said to be confusing.

NEW YORK (closed) 15% AA, 15% Lat. 29 CDs. 232 Dem delegates and 98 GOP delegates selected WTA. HRC will win big but Obama might got a good number of delegates. McCain will cruise.

10:00 pm ET

UTAH (closed GOP, Open Dem) 9 % Lat, 3 CDs. 22 Dem delegates and 33 GOP delegates selected WTA

11:00 pm ET

CALIFORNIA 6% AA, 32% Lat. 11% Asian, 53 CDs. 371 Dem delegates and 170 GOP delegates selected winner-take-all by state and congressional district. ** Half of CA will vote by mail…Independents can vote Democratic…not Republican….a big Clinton absentee effort.

Others –

ALASKA: 3% AA, 4% Lat. 15% NatAm, 1 CD (closed caucus) 14 Dem delegates, 26 GOP delegates selected proportionally.

COLORADO 4% AA, 17% Lat. 7 CDs. (closed caucus) 55 Dem delegates and 43 GOP delegates chosen proportionally.

IDAHO 1% AA, 8% Lat. 2 CDs (open caucus) 18 Dem delegates – no GOP event.

KANSAS 6% AA, 7% Lat. 4CDs (closed caucus) -- 32 Dem delegates – no GOP event. Obama has support of governor...\
d.
MINNESOTA 8 CDs (open caucuses) 73 Dem delegates and 38 GOP delegates chosen N/A

MONTANA 3 CDs (closed caucuses) -- 22 GOP delegates selected winner-take-all

NM 42% Lat. 9% NatAm, 3 CDs (closed caucus) 26 Dem delegates -- no GOP event … Hispanic vote overstate

ND 5% NatAm, 1 CD (open caucus) 13 Dem delegates and 33 GOP delegates selected proportional if victor does not receive 2/3rds majority

WV 95% white, 3 CDs. (convention) --- no Dem event, 18 GOP delegates selected Winner Take All

Comments

DuPage County is a white Republican suburban Chicago county in Illinois. Perhaps you mean DeKalb County, the majority black county next to Atlanta?

Posted by John | February 5, 2008 3:45 PM

You said Jackson! Racist!!!

Posted by Tom W. | February 5, 2008 3:48 PM

Only in Montana's wildest dreams does it have 3 CDs.

Posted by Chris O. | February 5, 2008 4:18 PM

Marc,

There is no DuPage. Co You mean Dekalb County.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeKalb_County,_Georgia

Posted by James | February 5, 2008 4:49 PM

In Arkansas delegates are alloted proportionally on the Republican side: 12 CD and 19 statewide. Only 10 percent of the vote is necessary to pick up a delegate statewide. Huckabee is not universally beloved among Republicans here. Of course Romney's time is better used in the big winner-take-all states, but the slightest amount of attention to the state might have allowed him to pick up a few extra delegates.

Posted by Trombone Dixie | February 5, 2008 4:58 PM

Based on Romney's loss in WV, it looks like the GOP race should be over after today. When will Romney officially drop out?

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by matt | February 5, 2008 5:03 PM

On the "confusing" Arizona ballot: a Tucson weekly newspaper sponsored a weird (and, IMHO, unbelievably stupid) "reality" game in which people would get themselves listed on the ballot as candidates, so there are a lot of names that nobody knows (for good reason!) Names of all candidates were then selected randomly for listing on the ballot. So, yes, it's confusing, as in, "Who the f*** is so-and-so?"

Posted by David in Tucson | February 5, 2008 6:01 PM

The Arizona ballot is not all that confusing. I mean, unless only voting one time for one person in your party is confusing, or the part where you fill in the circle _completely_, and not, say, partially, is confusing. There are lots of names but I think most people know who they are planning on voting for, so it's just a matter of reading the list for your guy (or, ahem, gal).

Posted by robyn | February 5, 2008 6:52 PM