ABC/Post Poll: Dead Heat In Texas

A new ABC News / Washington Post poll out tonight puts Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a dead heat in Texas and Clinton clinging to a single-digit lead in Ohio.

The numbers are 48-47 Clinton in Texas, and 50-43 Clinton in Ohio. Between a quarter and a third of the vote

Says ABC's analysis:

"In Texas, Clinton’s being kept competitive by support from Hispanics; she needs them to turn out in more-than-usual numbers, as they did in California, which she won Feb. 5. In Ohio she’s benefiting from a greater number of Democratic Party regulars than in Texas, fewer college-educated or higher-income voters, and support from union households. In both states, senior citizens are crucial to Clinton’s side; independents and younger voters, to Obama’s. And he’s taken a lead over Clinton on electability, a point he may try to drive home, along with his mantle of “change,” in the days ahead."

Comments

Given that Obama's been consistently outperforming polls for the month of February, I'd say this one's over barring a ... well, Clinton-esque collapse.

Given that he's got 12 days to work on the 3/4 states, and friendly territory the week after that, I feel quite certain we'll have our nominee within two weeks.

Posted by Jeff Larson | February 21, 2008 5:16 PM

Looks to me like these numbers represent a slight uptick for HRC. You go, girl!

Posted by Marc Ambinder | February 21, 2008 5:23 PM

It is over. HRC should concede gracefully or un-gracefully which she prefers.

Posted by john | February 21, 2008 5:28 PM

The Clinton campaign has long said that Pennsylvania is their firewall. If a Democratic candidate can't win in Pennsylvania, then that person shouldn't be the nominee. Let's just skip TX and OH altogether and go straight to Pennsylvania.

Posted by Craig | February 21, 2008 5:37 PM

Pollster.com's Texas poll chart should be very worrisome to the Clinton campaign. Her lead in Ohio is a lot more significant and even though it's been decreasing, much more stable overall. But the trending in Texas is strikingly obvious.

Posted by jbryan | February 21, 2008 5:47 PM

On the contrary, Craig. Hillary, Penn, Wolfson, et al, have all stated that Puerto Rico is their real firewall.

Posted by Jose | February 21, 2008 5:47 PM

I'm not supporting Hillary but if I were advising her, I'd say she has one chance, if she's capable of it. I predict when she does decide to bow out, she'll do it with a lot of class and her supporters will inevitably say, "Damn, if she'd only shown that side all along things would have been different".

Well, she has a chance to show that side right now while she's still in it, and it's possible it could change enough minds to make a difference. She has to forget about attacking Obama in any way and use these last two debates to speak directly into the camera, find some humility, admit some mistakes, drop any suggestion of entitlement, and ask people to vote for her. She has to basically throw herself on the mercy of the court of public opinion. It's not something I've ever heard her do and I'm not optimistic she can pull it off.

But I think it's her best shot and if it doesn't work, at least she can rationalize that she put it on the line as straight as she could and the people said no.

Posted by Frank | February 21, 2008 5:51 PM

But that's the problem, Frank. She may "ask people to vote for her," but she can provide them with no good reason to do so. I don't mean to demean your account--indeed I think it's a very good strategy for her to adopt--but it involves her admitting that there is, really, no reason to choose her over Obama.

Posted by wj | February 21, 2008 5:55 PM

I think that these numbers look pretty good for Senator Clinton. She has proven time and time again that when her back is up against the wall she fights back and prevails. I still think that TX and OH are less important for her then Pennsylvania (a large important State where she is receiving considerable support). If she can win these debates and win in Penn. the automatic delegates will likely rally around her as she is the more experienced candidate. She needs to show a lot of emotion tonight and even display some anger to show that she is a fighter.

Posted by Toobie | February 21, 2008 6:51 PM

Hillary

We are with you. Do not listen to media. Obama is their wonder boy. The are cooking the books ...poll. me and my 20 buddies voted for you today.

Nick

Posted by Nick | February 21, 2008 6:55 PM

I'm tired of hearing the argument that Hillary has fought back and won. When has she done that? Never in an election. I live in New York and she skated into her Senate seats by spending tons of money. Never anywhere. She had troubles in the White House and, yes, she was still alive at the end but she hobbled herself such that she could move forward none of her plans and left with half the country disliking her. That is not winning.

Posted by Elissa | February 21, 2008 7:14 PM

Eissa:

Hint to the wise. When people say Hillary they often mean Bill.

Posted by Craig | February 21, 2008 7:31 PM

Hillary's plagiarism charge against Obama is a desperate strategy that will blow up in her face with the voters. Hillary seemed petty with her criticism of Obama's lines and then, in her closing words, proceeded to use very similar words of Edwards and Bill. It just makes her look like a power-hungry bitch.

Also, I'm growing tired of this debate format. I would rather listen to each one give a speach for 30 minutes and then just let the other speak. That would be much more indicative of their presidential competence than playing games, trying to trip-up each other. Obama won this debate and will obviously take Texas.

Posted by Phil Lanager | February 22, 2008 2:12 AM

Phil,

You can watch them each give a speech. It is called a rally and they tend to do them most days.

I totally agree that the debate format is overrated as a way to determine our President. Not sure how much split second mastery of facts goes into the Presidency but I'm guessing not very much.

I also agree Obama won last night. If Hillary's fan's are hanging their hope on that final answer, it will never come.

And Frank is right. Her best hope is to eventually get us to feel sorry for her enough to vote for her. But do we really want to vote for someone we feel sorry for?

Posted by swarty | February 22, 2008 9:09 AM

These polls are a little deceptive, though, in that they don't account for the fact that even if HRC can gain lots of Hispanic support, it may not translate into real delegate gains. The Texas Democratic Party's delegate allocation system is based on Democratic turnout in the previous two general elections. Hispanic turnout for the Democrats in the heavily Latino Valley districts was very low - the districts down there only have 3-4 delegates in this year's cycle. El Paso only gets 3. Contrast that with a place like Austin, which is full of liberal, latte-drinking white Obama voters and has 8 delegates, and it seems to me that the case that Hillary can hang on by keeping Hispanic voters is misleading. The polls aren't accounting for this disparity in delegate distribution.

Paul Burka at Texas Monthly has a good explanation of the whole mess here

Posted by Texas in Africa | February 22, 2008 11:30 AM

This doesnt' address the fact that even if Hillary wins Texas and Ohio, she loses - unless she wins by gigantic 70% to 30% margins. They're trying to win delegates, not votes. Hillary is so far behind in pledged delegates that even 60% to 40% wins in Ohio and Texas, which clearly is not in the cards, would be insufficient.

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