« Cringe-Inducing Giants Comparison Of The Day.... | Main | Feb 5 Projections: The Republicans » Feb 5 Projections: Revised04 Feb 2008 02:15 pm According to campaign sources, polling and stealing off other analysts, Hillary Clinton has an edge in New York, New Jersey, Tennessee, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Arkansas. Obama has an edge in Idaho, Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota and Illinois. Tossups: California, Connecticut, Democrats Abroad, Arizona, Missouri, Delaware, Utah, American Samoa, Alaska, Massachusetts Comments (60)
And to reinforce arguments made in the comments section of the Plouffe memo post, most of these toss-ups were considered Hillary's to lose until this weekend. Don't forget New Hampshire (or Poland, for that matter). Late surges do not necessarily translate to wins. Obama is still the underdog. 
The fact that they got so close in so little time is amazing and says only bad things about HRC's electability arguments, clearly, if she pulls off the nomination she will have formidable issues in a general election beyond gender. If he comes within 200 delegates I think he has a great chance considering the rest of the month favors him. And that would have been a mind-blowing achievement considering HRC was basically looking at incumbent numbers as short as two weeks ago.
Why is Utah considered a tossup? The Desert Morning News poll a few days ago had Obama up 53 to 29 -- it seems pretty clear that its his to lose.
Marc: I've been curious why I'm seeing Utah in the "toss-up" category at many sites. The only poll I've seen out of Utah (the Deseret News poll from this weekend) notes: "Obama leads the "most likely to vote" Democrats 53-29 percent over Clinton." I grew up in Utah, and Hillary is not a popular figure (remember, Clinton came in THIRD after Ross Perot). . .
Notice all of those juicy red states for Obama? The Dems better think of the general, too. The primary that we all should be watching tomorrow is Samoa. Those islanders are a vital piece of the puzzle... http://www.political-buzz.com/
"The primary that we all should be watching tomorrow is Samoa. Those islanders are a vital piece of the puzzle..." I'm still shocked and amazed that American Samoa is up for grabs. Obama would be the first Polynesian-raised president! Come home to your own, Samoans!! And yes, I AM playing the Polynesian card!
I agree with most of the post, except that I think Obama will take DE, UT, and CT as well (barring the effects of some as yet unforseen HRC attack mailer or robocall attack). In CT, the last two polls show him at a tie or leading, and he has a 2:1 lead over HRC in UT.
Re: Utah Obama obviously thinks Utah is in play--he set up a field office in the relatively small southern Utah town of St. George. The actual delegates in Utah are nothing in comparison to California or New York, but I think the fact that Obama is actively competing there shows something about his campaign. He is willing and able to reach out to voters in red states. He will do the same thing in the general if he is the nominee, and that would mean trouble for the GOP nominee. The Clintons are not well loved in rural Utah due to Bill Clinton's decision to create the Grand Staircase national monument. Living in Utah at the time, I personally thought it was a great accomplishment, but I did have to admit that it was done ham-handedly, with virtually no local input allowed. The only thing that might hinder Obama is that Utah has a closed primary, and a fair number of voters there are independents, meaning they would have to change their registration in order to vote.
For what it's worth, I'm largely in agreement, except that AK, DE, and UT should go to Obama. At the end of the day, MA and probably MO go to Clinton. CA, CT, and AZ are the big question marks for me. In the unlikely event that there's a real shift one way or the other, Clinton could make a play for AL or CO and Obama for NM.
From my understanding, the latest poll(s) in NM shows Obama with a substantial lead. I'm surprised that isn't reflected here.
I was iffy about Delaware before (figuring it for a toss-up that leaned slightly to Clinton), but I think Obama's decision to make a stop in the state significantly impacts his ability to win the state. The fact that he attracted an estimated 20,000 people (which is more people than voted for winner Kerry in the '04 primary) certainly plays into that, but there's also the fact that the visit got a huge amount of attention within the state (lead story on local tv media as well as *heavy* coverage in the papers). The news also played up the fact that he had a dual-introduction from Lt. Gov. Carney and Treasurer Markell. It's the sort of thing that can make a big deal two days before the election. I also got a look at his GOTV operation in the state, which seems to be running on high gear. So right now I'd definitely put Delaware in Obama's category.
Right now, Obama should come out of Super Tuesday looking pretty good. It looks like he'll win at least half of the states (maybe a few more), even if they are smaller ones. And, in the larger states that that he loses to Clinton, it looks like he'll keep the delegate count very close. That would be a win for him - winnin half the states and a close delegate count. Then, the rest of Feb. couldn't be better for him - lots of caucus states (where he has the better ground operation), a number of states with large African American populations, and lots of time for retail politicking in those states. Go Obama!
I'd switch New Jersey and Massachusetts. Massachusetts is like southern NH where Obama did badly. I think Obama will be -7% in Mass and -1% in NJ. What sort of margin is expected for Obama in Minnesota and Colorado? These are big states and could be big delegate wins for Obama.
Clinton apparently made a comment that the people of Massachusetts can "redeem themselves" after the Super Bowl by voting for her on Tuesday. Not a wise move. Nope.
"Massachusetts is like southern NH where Obama did badly." Nah, the people who commute Nashua do that because they're unprincipled tax-evaders who prefer traffic jams to local government. Cynics to the man, dead to hope and the better things. Don't judge us by our expat community.
All the Democrats Abroad I'm in touch with are voting Obama. Small sample, to be sure, but we're a small state (22 delegates). Interestingly, the first "state" to vote tomorrow will be Indonesia's Dems Abroad, a country where Obama lived.
Prediction: Look for Hillary to drop out THIS MONTH Why? See below. If Obama does really well tomorrow, Hillary may have to pull out soon for financial reasons; she only raised $10 million in Jan, but spent $17 million - she's running out of money. Obama doesn't have to win the whole thing tomorrow, just be viewed as performing really well and having the momentum going into Feb 9th. On Feb. 9th, there are two caucuses (where he's already set up), and primaries in KS and LA. He's got the endorsement of the Gov of KS (where his mom was born), and Louisiana has a large AA population, so I don't think the 9th is going to be a good day for HRC. Next up - on the 10th to the 19th, there are primaries in MD, DC, and VA (large AA populations), and caucuses in HI (Obama's home town), and ME. If HRC gets wiped out on the 9th of Feb, that will be a significant blow to her because the following few weeks are set up for Obama. If Obama does well tomorrow (again he doesn't have to score a TKO), look for HRC to drop out THIS MONTH. After a string of defeats from the 9th to the 19th, her cash flow will dwindle to a trickle – right before the big state contests in OH, TX, and PA. HRC can’t afford to go toe to toe with Obama in those states (financially anyway). She says OH is her next firewall, but the TX primary is on the same day (more delegates), and Obama is surging there big time. Basically, HRC is TOAST if Obama does well on Super Tuesday.
Re: New Mexico I think the advantage is demographics. New Mexico has a high Latino population (something like 40% statewide). Also, the NMSU poll is a bit suspect - wide margin of error and long polling duration. Obama does have a distinct on the ground advantage, at least here in Southern New Mexico. I don't believe Hillary has a Las Cruces office, whereas Obama has had one for quite some time. He is also already organized in El Paso, TX, and has El Pasoans fanning out door to door here in the South. We've only seen one visit - Michelle Obama tonight. In the North, Obama and his surrogates have been here more than Hillary's. I also hear that his ground game is superior in the North as well. Ground game is vitally important as the election is a Democrat only Caucus.
Boring Commenter, my point is this: Clinton beat Obama in NH because of lower/middle income voters in the old industrial areas of Nashua, Manchester and a few of the larger towns along I93. I understand Massachusetts is a different animal. Here's what I expect tomorrow. Obama will win Boston, Newton, Somerville, Cambridge, the rich suburbs (which don't exist much in NH), the North Shore, Cape Cod, and the Berkshires. Clinton will win the 495 corridor and put up big margins in Lawrence, Lowell, Worcester, Springfield, New Bedford, Attleboro, and Fall River. I'm guessing Clinton 53% Obama 46%.
Obama could very well win AZ and even NM. He's had a large organization down there for months, far earlier than HRC. I read online that, unlike CA, AZ Latinos are for Obama something like 4-1. (???) He also has the support of the state's top Latino leader. As for NM, well, Bill's Super Bowl Hail Mary didn't make a connection. Who knows what will happen tomorrow? It's certainly exciting. If Obama takes California, I do believe he is the next President of the United States.
As of about 5 P.M., Intrade showed Obama up 5-4 in California
What I'm really interested in seeing is how many of the Super Tuesday states turn out to show the same results as New Hampshire and Nevada: Obama takes a small-to-medium loss in the popular vote but ends up even or leading in delegates based on stronger performance outside the big cities.
latest survey usa polls up have clinton up pretty comfortably in Missouri, California, Massachussets CA MO Mass
If anything the true tossups are AZ and CT. Also, I think Alabama is a toss up. Rasmussen has hillary up 46-41, the rest of the polls are all tied. Please realclearpolitics.com
A Suffolk University poll had Obama up by two in Mass. It's been underpolled over the last two weeks. Make of it what you will.
On Feb. 9th, there are two caucuses (where he's already set up), and primaries in KS and LA. He's got the endorsement of the Gov of KS (where his mom was born), and Louisiana has a large AA population, so I don't think the 9th is going to be a good day for HRC. Actually, Kansas' Democratic Caucus is on the 5th, while the Republican Caucus is on the 9th. However, I expect Obama to win here handily--he already had the lead in KS back in May.
Don't believe the hype about tomorrow, Obamans! A pertinent read: http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/4/154515/5935/857/449684 Keep your expectations in check and realize that coming anywhere near Hillary's delegate count is the REAL victory for Obama. Running ourselves full of hot air won't help get him the nomination. Any campaign and its supporters who don't work like they're 20 points behind is doomed! This is a marathon, NOT a 100-meter dash! Eyes on the prize!
Pollster has Clinton accumulating close to 1200 delegates tomorrow, Obama 700. With her lead in super delegate commitments, plus the likelyhood that Michigan and Florida will ultimately work their way into the mix, that is a big hole for him to climb out of. Obama caught a break when the Rezko trial was delayed a week (to March 5), it gives him the month of February to try to recover. But ultimately that Chicago Arab Political Terror Cell will drag him under. Hopefully it happens during the primary, and doesn't have to wait until the G.E.
Thanks, Robert Ethan! Here's to poisoning our political discourse! Whoo! Go Hillary!
I may be a bit behind the rest of the world, but this Democrat abroad (in Paris) just cast his vote for Obama. All my friends abroad here are leaning towards Obama as well, but it is an admittedly small sample size. In any case, GObama!
My question is WHY IS IT TAKING THE AUTHORITIES SO LONG TO GET A COMPOSITE DRAWING OF THE BLACK MAN WHO TORTURED AND EXECUTED 5 WHITE WOMEN IN THE CHICAGO SUBURB OF TINLEY PARK, ILLINOIS? Political correctness and political favoritism gone too far? One woman in the store survived the shooting and gave a detailed general description of the murderer. Obviously any sort of artist rendering would help to identify this psychopath who IS STILL AT LARGE in the area. ARMED AND DANGEROUS WITH NOTHING TO LOSE. C'mon!
May I add, excellent analysis! Why Obama might win: Again and again we have heard cries for substance, and seen the links that prove Barack Obama’s commitment to big progressive issues: the economy, health care, and the creep of federal fascism. Obama has stood on the right side of any complex issue you might wish to exhume. That leaves us with his rhetorical skills. People everywhere thrill to the voice of Obama. His passion, intellect, and great oratory ability crystallize our concerns and hopes. That, my friends (to quote you know whom), readily swings voters across the nation. In spite of all the thus hurled accusations against him, he seems invincible in more than twenty-five key states. Over the long haul, exposure will hand him the nomination. In the great line of Swift, Newman, and Lincoln, Obama will win on rhetorical beauty and substance. It is up to us to be sure he is afforded several media platforms from which to speak. Wherever you are, be sure to record Obama and then spread his message of Hope and Freedom on your own web pages!
Now that all the other candidates have adopted Obama's message, once they realized it was working, it would be interesting to see him not become the nominee after having so accurately nailed the zeitgeist.
64% of clintons donors are maxxed out --40% of Obama's are maxxed out. Hillary loaned her campaign $10 million--- Obama raised 32million in January with 170,000 new donors to clinton's 12 million.
Chicago Illinois area authorities have released details about the Lane Bryant shooter right down to the embroidery on his jeans and the color of his dreadlocks, but THEY HAVE NOT ISSUED A COMPOSITE DRAWING. You can bet THEY WON'T UNTIL AFTER FEBRUARY 5. Three extra days for A MASS MURDERER TO DISAPPEAR INTO THE WOODWORK. All to prevent embarrassment for CHICAGO'S MOST PROMINENT POLITICIAN. It's bullshit.
On the ground anecdotal evidence here in Massachusetts suggests we are now leaning Obama. Hillary was in Worcester today, which is a district that she should be able to win provided her strong demos hold, there. If Worcester slips even ever so slightly away from her, then that would be a sign she could lose the state. Also, I want to add that the emergence of McCain as the front-runner could oddly hurt Hillary. Remember, McCain has appeal in one of Hillary's strongest demos which are white working neighborhoods. We have now gone through Massachusetts congressional districts between Northampton and Boston, and we are seeing a ton of Obama signs, some McCain signs, and interestingly virtually no Romney or Hillary signs. In addition, the local media has given the Obama a ton of airtime. I would remind people we have a boatload of university students here in MA. Not just in eastern MA. There are 35K+ students out in the 5 college area, and the academic community is also leaning Obama. Finally, Massachusetts does not have the legions of working class people that it used to. The loss of ship-building jobs started nearly 25 years ago. "Southie" is now a gentrifying neighborhood. There is some suggestion that even the distinctive Massachusetts accent is on a trend to eventually disappear. the point I am trying to make is that Massachusetts does not have the demos that Hillary needs. I am surprised the polls took this long to tighten. I would far favor the more recent polls, over the one's earlier in the month. We shall see. I thin Obama has a very, very good chance to take 4 out of 10 CDs here. A decent chance to take 5, and if the mo-mo continues maybe even 6. He won't get 7 though.
Nice to see Robert Ethan standing up for the George Wallace wing of the Democratic Party. Too bad that train has already left the station for GOP-land long ago.
My predictions, FWIW: Hillary gets: Obama gets: Too close: On the too-close races, I bet Hillary gets NM and CT and Obama gets MO and CA. But all will be very close and virtual delegate ties. The media story is "Super Tuesday tied up" with Obama getting great play for winning California and Hillary for holding to the Northeast.
O.K., Elrod, YOU explain why the police officials can supply such excrutiatlingly detailed description of AN AFRICAN AMERICAN MALE who TORTURED AND MURDERED FIVE WOMEN, all for a few hundred dollars, but NOT RELEASE A COMPOSITE DRAWING OF SAID AFRICAN AMERICAN MALE? When Amanda Holloway disappeared, or the Marine killed his pregnant girlfriend, Drudge and the mainstream media were all over those cases, 24/7. In what in my estimation, is a far more heinous crime, and a far more dangerous situation for the general public, all the PUBLICITY IS LOWBALLED IN THIS INCIDENT. The police DELAY THE MOST USEFUL AND BASIC STEP IN APPREHENDING THE PERPETRATOR. Issuing a composite drawing. The reason is pretty obvious to me. You're welcome to hide your empty head under the covers, but I'm disgusted with what is going down in that POLITICAL SEWER PIT of Chicago, Illinois.
I think it's a lock there will be lots of voting problems tomorrow. The turnout is going to be monstrous. You're going to have alot of first time voters trying to vote who 1. Are not registered, 2. Are at the wrong polling place. I also expect some people who voted by absentee are going to show up and see if they can vote on a new ballot. There may be some states where you can in fact vote in person and cancel your previous absentee ballot. Especially if you voted for someone who has now dropped out of the race. I look for problems in Los Angeles, Chicago, and some New York boroughs ex-Manhattan. The volatility in the polling, especially in big states, is telling you that alot of people are entering the process. The pollsters are seeing new walls of information coming at them each day. Regardless of how it turns out for HRC or Obama, this thing's a political earthquake.
Just because Obama will do well tomorrow in red states like Utah and Idaho does not mean that he has a chance in hell of winning those states in a general election. In fact, can Obama supporters plausibly name ONE Bush state that Obama can carry? I can't think of any. But I can think of several Kerry states that Obama could lose, such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, where McCain is popular with working-class Dems.
Robert Ethan,
Hi Jason. Jason, I begin with the proposition that in the general election, either Clinton or Obama wins all the Gore/Kerry states. Then the math problem proceeds directly to the the following three states: Florida, Missouri, Ohio. It sounds like you would disagree with my opening assumption. Fair enough. My view on the 3 swing state math problem is as follows: I think Clinton can win Florida, unless McCain takes Christ as VP. In that case Clinton is pushed back trying to with at least MO or OH. That's where I think she runs into trouble. For Obama, I think Obama beats McCain in both OH and MO, as the regional candidate, and, as the candidate with crossover appeal. My analysis goes alot deeper than all of this, and is based on alot of data that has already come in, in this primary season. Final thought: this entire election can be reduced even further, and one just asks: who beats McCain in Ohio?
Sorry Elrod, I didn't realize you know the police chief personally, and that he discusses his political viewpoint with you on a regular basis. I was operating under the assumption (obviously mistaken) that the POLICE CHIEF TAKES ORDERS AS WELL. From prominent beaureaucrats and ultimately FROM CITY AND STATE POLITICIANS. But obviously you're not concerned over the fact that a COLD BLOODED KILLER is on the loose and LESS THAN MAXIMUM EFFORT IS BEING MADE TO APPREHEND HIM. At least until the day after tomorrow. But hey, what's a few days matter in situations like this?
Jason,
Gregor, I hope you are correct, but some recent polls I have seen show McCain winning in PA and OH against both Hillary and Obama. With Hillary it was very close, with Obama it was not so close. I think these were Rasmussen. Sorry, no link. If you have other polls, I'd like to see them. By the way, I would expect Huckabee rather than McCain to pick Christ as his running mate :) Seriously though, there are rumors Crist is gay. If he isn't or if there is no proof of it, he would be a good VP choice for McCain. That's why I hope McCain picks Huckabee, who can be tarred with the Wayne DuMond issue.
Jason, in my opinion if McCain takes Huckaboom (that's what I call him) he immediately sheds his comparative advantage with Independents, because in my opinion Huckaboom's on the record comments about changing the Constitution are now glued to his ass. Up until that point, I could actually concieve of him on a ticket. There are just WAY too many educated Republicans for whom that would be a real deal-breaker, in my opinion. McCain is up against the same electoral map that the DEM is up against. He has to secure at least 1 of the 3, and better yet 2 of the 3, swing states to lock-up a victory. McCain would be better off finding his conservative from Florida, or Missouri--and not sink himself with Huckabee. Unless I am missing something that's changed alot, I really don't think PA is a focus at all, in this analysis of the general election. Rendell is still the Governor. I would advise Hillary if she was the nominee to think about taking Nelson of Florida or maybe Strickland of Ohio.
Sounds to me like Robert Ethan is desperately trying to confess to as many of his crimes as possible. Poor baby, did mommy forget your medication again?
According to Robert Ethan, "Pollster has Clinton accumulating close to 1200 delegates tomorrow, Obama 700." This would be pretty impressive, considering that only 1,680 delegates are at stake.
C'mon, Marc: No projection for American Samoa? None. And you call yourself a poltical expert. Yeesh.
Here is an estimate I saw of how the delegates will break down based on polling in the states where it is available: http://ccpsblog.blogspot.com/2008/02/super-tuesday-democratic-delegate-count.html
So much for Obama's "Foreign Policy Gravitas by virtue of race". http://www.abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=4240731&page=1 If anything he has made the situation in Kenya worse by supporting his power mad and bloodthirsty cousin Raila Odinga in the near past. He races around in a Red Hummer, wearing a cowboy hat and outlandish pimp outfits, bragging of his American Cousin Barack Obama. Odinga refuses to accept the election results, refuses to let the matter go before the courts, and refuses a power sharing arrangement with President Mwai Kabaki. He wants power, plain and simple, and is prepared to go to any lengths to get it. Including assasinating one of the members of his own party who was about to change sides in disgust over the violent methods of Odinga which have resulted in close to 1,000 deaths and 300,000 displacements in the country. The vast majority of those deaths and displacements have been suffered by the majority Kikuyu tribe of President Kabaki at the expense of the Luo and other minority tribes supporting Raila Odinga and the ODM. There is a deliberate campaign of ethnic cleansing happening in the Rift Valley according to independant observers, and in most other countries, Obama's cousin and friend Odinga would be on trial for war crimes.
More Odinga/Obama http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23435562-details/As+Kenya+descends+into+anarchy,+there's+no+sign+of+an+end+of+the+tribal+bloodshed/article.do
Moderate politician Were assasinated because he was about to change sides in the Parliament from the ODM Party of Obama's cousin and friend Raila Odinga, to the majority party of President Kibaki. Odinga then blamed his death on the government to incite further violence. http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/opinion/la-ed-kenya4feb04,1,5323681.story
1) Feb 5 Pledged Delegates worst case scenario BO 837 For state by state click this http://www.pbase.com/ystasino/image/92564853 2) If one adds the pledged delegates from earlier states this becomes: Obama 900 This is the worst case scenario. States like TN,OK, NY, NJ, CT, CA, AR were her firewalls. 3) In the month coming we have 529 pledged delegates mostly from LA, MD, DC, VA, WA, WI all of which Obama could perhaps win. Then Ohio and Texas have 334 pledged delegates on March 4th.
I think we should all concede certain points to our insightful friend Robert Ethan: -- As much as many of us would like to deny it, the fact is that Barack Obama is responsible for the five murders in suburban Chicago, and that is the only reasonable explanation for why the police have been hesitant to put out a sketch of what the suspect looks like. According to witnesses at the scene, the suspect was about 6'2", half-Kenyan half-Kansan, very thin, and displayed large protruding ears (which is typical of murderers, according to senior investigators). Additionally, the suspect wouldn't desist from screaming Yes We Can before the incident occurred. -- Regarding Kenya: Apparently, there has been a cover-up of enormous proportions that the CIA is now uncovering. Obama's plan was to win the American presidential election, only to unite the US with Africa, and have all black people rape, pillage, and murder their white neighbors. Showing some of his critics that he "really is quite liberal", Obama intended to hand the Northern American continent back to the brothers who built it. I think it's rather clear: Robert Ethan has done it again. Although he's called Barack Obama "Crack" before, and Rob has seemed like a petty and angry adolescent bent on sharing his madness with the world, he is more than that. While all available evidence pointed to concluding that Robert Ethan was a racist blowhard, inserting pessimism wherever he could, and not letting some decent people have a normal conversation on a blog, he has showed us the very stark reality that sits before our eyes, one that we are unwilling to admit to. Thanks Robert, thanks a lot. The only way to handle idiocy is humor. So thanks Rob, for giving us an opportunity to insert some of the funny into this discussion. Cheers ole buddy!
Breaking News: Courtesy of Robert Ethan News Company
It's funny how Hillary is winning all the racists states and Obama is winning the non-racists states. I wonder why that is?
Aeli, Kudos!
...the point I am trying to make is that Massachusetts does not have the demos that Hillary needs. I am surprised the polls took this long to tighten. I would far favor the more recent polls, over the one's earlier in the month... Wishful thinking. I'm a Bay Stater, and I predict Massachusetts goes for Hillary. The Clinton brand is extremely popular here, and the state is experiencing its share of economic woes. The housing crisis isn't as bad as in some parts of the country, but Massachusetts's very high cost of living tends to make any economic trouble seem a lot worse than it is. People here remember the Clinton dotcom boom years, which were extremely kind to Massachusetts. My guess is the state's population is slightly more elderly than that of New Hampshire, where Hillary managed a strong win. I doubt the college vote will be that decisive, because you have to register in Massachusetts to vote here, and not many college kids are sufficiently responsible to do so. Also, the black population is smaller than the Latino and Brazilian populations. Finally, we're talking about a primary -- not a general election -- and voter turnout is much smaller. The people in Massachusetts who will dominate in a small turnout primary election for the Democrats will skew older and whiter, with a lot of older Catholics and Jews. Hillary's also got most of the Democratic machine's foot soldiers in her camp, as well as the bulk of the still important union vote. That sounds to me like Hillary country. I don't think it will be a massive win, but I bet it's five or six points. Oh, and I just emailed a thirtyish, male, good friend of mine who wants Obama to win. Did he make it to his polling place today? Nope. He's gotta work. Retired people have plenty of time to vote.
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I thought Obama had the lead in American's abroad...not a significant number, but support, yes.
Posted by whoanow | February 4, 2008 2:34 PM