Here we go:
McCain: New York, New Jersey, Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Oklahoma, Delaware, Alabama
Romney: Colorado, Alaska, West Virginia, Utah
Tossups: California (lean McCain), Missouri, Georgia, Minnesota
« Feb 5 Projections: Revised | Main | Feb. 5 Spreads » Feb 5 Projections: The Republicans04 Feb 2008 03:37 pm Comments (20)
Awe, come on, give Multiple Choice Mitty Massachusetts, will ya? 
How can you put California at "lean McCain" when the most recent of Zogby (granted its Zogby) has Romney +8 and Rasmussen has it as a tie?
This would be a McCain sweep if Huckabee wasn't acting as a spoiler. I know that counters CW but if you actually look at the favourability ratings from Huck's supporters they despise Romney and like McCain.
Alaska for Mitt? Are there a lot of Mormons? I thought they loved McCain or Paul.
California is a toss-up because it's not a winner-take-all primary. The popular vote doesn't ultimately matter.
California is a toss-up because it's not a winner-take-all primary. The popular vote doesn't ultimately matter.
Maybe a Giants-like upset for Huckabee tomorrow?
Romney best bet seems to me is for Huck to stop McCain in Missiour.
Hello, Marc, commenters- Mass wasn't listed - I'll add it to Mitt's column (proportional representation, both will end up w/ delegates) Alaska will probably go for Mitt b/c he's the only one competing in it other than Paul. The three places where Mitt can be assured of winning are Alaska, Massachusetts, and Colorado. He has fighting chances in several others, particularly caucus states.
The Massachusetts poll that came out today has Mitt ahead by 21 points, so I think you can safely put Massachusetts in Mitt's category. You also left out Montana, North Dakota, and New Mexico....the former 2 being locks for Mitt. Tennessee should be in the tossup category. Look for Mitt to break through in Georgia and Missouri, and win California. The statewide winner in California gets an extra bonus of 20 delegates, while in Georgia, it is 30. Mitt will also get a statewide bonus of 10 delegates for winning Massachusetts. So a lot of proportional states are really only semi-proportional. Look for Mitt to survive the day....and go forward from there.
What about Tennessee? It's a real toss-up here. Howard Baker endorsed McCain but the rest of the GOP establishment endorsed Romney. Huckabee has a lot of popular appeal, especially in West Tennessee. I see McCain squeaking out a victory here. I do notice the unusually low number of political signs around Knoxville - except for Ron Paul.
"Giants-like upset for Huckabee" I LIKE IT ALOT! I can only hope and pray that is EXACTLY what happens for our country on Super-Tuesday!!!
If Huckabee doesn't make it, I won't be voting for a president this election... I CANNOT in good faith vote for anyone else...
The student-run paper of the University of Minnesota gave a tepid nod to McCain and focused on change in endorsing Obama. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., are narrowly leading their respective parties going into Tuesday's caucuses in Minnesota, according to a KMSP/Rasmussen Reports Poll. But the chief rivals to the two candidates are close behind. Looking at possible November matchups for the presidency, the only Republican candidate to compete for the state was McCain, who ties Clinton in a head-to-head matchup with 44 percent each. Obama easily defeats McCain head-to-head, 47 percent to 41 percent. Both Clinton and Obama easily defeat Romney. http://minnesotamonitor.com/magFront.do
On the question of Tenn- Obviously, it was an afterthought during most of the process b/c of Fred. Now, I think that it matters - but McCain has an inherent advantage in that he has two shots to win it - his own and Huck's. Denying the victory to Mitt is of much greater importance than whether he wins it or Huck wins it...
What about Montana?
I think it's pretty safe to put Utah in Romney's column. I'm just sayin'.
West Virginia isn't on Feb 5. So everything you said must therefore be wrong. Just saying.
West Virginia isn't on Feb 5. Incorrect. A Super Tuesday state.
|
Subscribe to this blog by Email Twitter || On Facebook || QIK Live Channel  Recent Posts
Monthly Archives
|
| 
Copyright © 2008 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved.
Awe, come on, give Muliple Choice Mitty Massachusetts, will ya?
Posted by AJ | February 4, 2008 3:59 PM