On health care.
Yes, there are plenty of wealthy, educated liberals in Wisconsin.
But there are plenty of lunch pail, blue collar ...actually, they really are Democrats, too. So Wisconsin is a state where Sen. Clinton could do better than expected.
« Dispatch From The District Of Columbia | Main | Ed Rendell Pulls An... Ed Rendell » HRC's First Wisconsin Ad12 Feb 2008 01:19 pm Comments (13)
New poll Obama by 11: http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/poll_obama_up_by_11_points_in.php So...actually, she's probably going to do WORSE than expected. 
Damnit, the bifurcation of white Democratic voters into elites and blue-collar types is completely useless for understanding this primary election! How do you think Obama won MN, ID, WA, UT, NE, CO, ME, etc. - the big western states - with yuppies and black people? C'mon! There are three major white voting blocs among dems: urban and suburban elites, urban and suburban blue collar voters - and rural voters! RURAL VOTERS MAKE THE DIFFERENCE! And they are overwhelmingly - 2-to-1 - for Obama! And they are why Obama will win WI!
Marc, did you miss that poll from earlier today that had Sen. Clinton up by 8 in WI? I think she seems very well poised to win WI. Certainly given the state's demographics she's likely the favorite going in, notwithstanding her primary performance this past week. Also, could you please clarify this? I literally have no idea what you're saying: But there are plenty of lunch pail, blue collar ...actually, they really are Democrats, too. So Wisconsin is a state where Sen. Clinton could do better than expected. I'm not aware of anyone who has seriously argued that those demographics "don't count" as Democrats -- is that the argument you're responding to?
Unbelievable how badly Hillary has run her campaign. She let her surrogates and her husband go way too negative and sleazy on her chief rival, and now Bill is adding "smoke and mirrors" to the list of condescending, dismissive things they've said about a candidate who is now poised to sweep today's contests. They're acting like losers. Never listen to Mark Penn. Never go into an election acting as though you're totally comfortable with the "inevitable" label. Never let your team be the first to insert race and racial stereotypes into a campaign. Never make yourself look weak by paying way too much attention to an MSNBC reporter's poor choice of words. (If you're so "ready on day one" to lead the country, why are you so easily rankled by a television program? If David Schuster gets you this worked up, how will you react to a real threat?) Never treat the electorate like kindergarten class who just needs to shut up and listen to mommy and daddy lest the big bad bogeyman GOP come and eat them.
Please, give us an indication of how people are expecting Hillary to do, so we can make sense of what you mean when you say she may do better than expected.
Whoops, my bad -- that poll I mentioned earlier has Hillary up by 9 in WI. It's from ARG, who I believe has been fairly accurate this year. http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/widem8-701.html Do you expect Hillary to do better than win by nine points in WI, Marc?
"Wisconsin is a state where Sen. Clinton could do better than expected."
It's hard to imagine her doing better than that. Or is the point supposed to be that if Obama only wins the state by a few points as opposed to a supermajority this is somehow a moral victory for Hillary? Come off it! You sound just like Penn.
Exactly. Does better than expected these days mean - not a rout? Or does it mean a win, however slight? Where are the goal posts? We are past the expectations game. Obama has already demonstrated that he is control and will dominate the pledged delegates even if he loses OHIO, TX and PENN. Will Hillary picking up a win in WI - turn those states into a rout for her? Get real. Doing better than expected in the middle of a campaign gets you nowhere. She has to perform at a completely new level - something we have not seen so far. Or else Obama has to completely collapse. Neither is likely. So, better than expected is rather meaningless.
Just want to echo the other commenters' thoughts on the extraordinary silliness of the "expectations" game. It's a completely useless concept because where the pundit sets the goal posts is completely arbitrary. Marc, please focus more on journalism and less on echoing the lame horserace punditry of the cable nets, and the pathetic spinning of the campaigns.
I went to school at the University of Wisconsin and live in Minneapolis now, there is no way Hillary is going to win Wisconsin. People who are saying she has a shot are dreaming. Madison and Milwaukee will go Obama, overwhelmingly. Lacrosse is a republican stronghold they won't vote for her, Eau Claire is a student hub which will go Obama, Green Bay a republican stronghold, Steven Point, student hub, Western Wisconsin (River Falls, Hudson) they too have a university there and many whites (liberals) who live there and work in St Paul or Minneapolis. So people keep dreaming, Obama wins big in WI. My friend has been organizing Obama campaign in Western WI for a while, no way Hillary wins WI!
I agree with jeanba. I live in Madison and it is a liberal town, to say the least. We have the only openly lesbian congress woman, plus Russ Fiengold. Milwaukee is both fairly liberal and has a huge black population. Plus it is an open primary so independants can go wherever they feel strongest and that seems to be a positive for Obama in lots of ways. I think Obama's worst case senario is a very close loss, but really I think Obama wins by 10+. I just have this feeling that there are a lot of people, both conservative and liberal--who are sick of the partisanship of the republican machine of the last 16 years. Voting for Hil promises more of the same from both Hil and the republicans. Obama really does stand for change in people's minds. Weather he can pull it off is a different thing.
La Crosse is NOT a Republican stronghold. In fact, much of Western Wisconsin is blue. The only Republican strongholds in the state are along the Kettle Morraine area from Fond Du Lac down south of Waukesha -- specifically Washington and Waukesha counties. Also, the fox cities. The rest of the state is largely Democratic.
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New poll
Obama by 12:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/poll_obama_up_by_11_points_in.php
So...actually, she's probably going to do WORSE than expected.
Posted by Paul | February 12, 2008 1:24 PM