Eagle-eyed Patrick Ruffini twittered last night that he'd just seen a Barack Obama ad in the DC market aimed at the 2/12 Potomac Primary...(with the campaign's SMS code appended.)
« Obama Crowd | Main | DipDive » Obama Begins To Air 2/12 Ads?03 Feb 2008 07:23 am Comments (35)
Yeah, they're showing here in Maryland too. 
Interpretation: somebody has so much money that they don't know what to do with it all.
His strategy is really, really brilliant. He's going to have a strong showing on Feb 5th and then move straight to several victories to continue the momentum. Maryland, DC and Virginia are all demographically great for him. He started the ad blitz early and will campaign heavily after Feb 5th. He does sooooo well, when the schedule isn't so compressed and people actually have the chance to see him. Honestly, I am starting to think Hillary can't stop Obama anymore. Barring a gaffe, that is. But he is looking really really strong. (Also, for anyone who hasn't already seen, you MUST watch the "Yes We Can" video. Obama's South Carolina Speech made into a song. It's a real treat. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYY)
So that's what you do when you raise $32 million in one month.
First: doesn't calling it the "potomac primary" insult the people of Norfolk, Newport News, Roanoke, Baltimore, Annapolis, etc.? At the very least it oughtta be the "Chesapeake Primary" in fairness to Baltimore. Second: Didn't he announce this a few days ago?
I agree with Anna that he's had a really well run campaign. I read this the same way that I do Obama leaving California to campaign elsewhere. This is a really confident campaign. And the Zogby and Field poll numbers out of California partly back that up. If they thought they were about to get their asses kicked on Feb 5 they would find a way to spend that money to prevent it. An Obama Tuesday surprise seems increasingly likely (though a draw seems the most likely outcome to me). I'm beginning to understand why Bill Clinton seemed to go into panic mode when conventional wisdom said her national numbers would sustain her. And don't forget the sham of a victory rally in Florida. Maybe they saw this coming.
I'm a huge Hillary fan. That is to say, I love what she's done as the Senator for my state of NY. And truly, that is the only reason I'll be voting for Barack on Tuesday: to keep her in the Senate.
lampwick, you're so selfish--if you really loved her you'd set her free. But I'm glad you're voting for my guy.
Obama is surging everywhere (polls released over the last 2 days): CA: Clinton 36, Obama 34 (California Field Poll) Hillary was supposed to have a lock on the NY tristate area (NY, CT, NJ). I don’t think Obama will take NY, but NJ and CT are certainly vulnerable. Feb. 5th was supposed to be Hillary's chance to put a dent in him. It doesn't look like that's going to happen, and if she doesn't stop him then, the rest of february is tailor made for Obama - lots of caucus states (in which he's got a better ground game than Hillary), and and states with a good-sized African American population - MD, DC, VA. The more time he has to make his case to voters, the worse it gets for Hillary.
Thanks for the list, Sue. Add Alabama: Source: Tuscaloosa News Obama 44, HRC 37 moe: 5 link:http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/article/20080202/NEWS/122394749/1007 And New Mexico (but a very unreliable poll): Source: New Mexico State University Obama 48, HRC 42 moe: 6+ link: http://www.nmfbihop.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=682
And now add two new ones (via Drudge, no link yet): RASMUSSEN POLL: CA: Obama 45% Clinton 44% GA: McCain 31% Romney 29% Huck 28%
Obama's problem is time. He does better when he gets to engage in retail politics - the more voters see him, the more they like him. So, all he's got to do is do well on Super Tuesday, rack up as many states as possible (hopefully at least half) and keep the delegate count close to Hillary. That should be considered a "win" for him. After that, the rest of Feb is tailor made for him. If Hillary doesn't open up a big lead in terms of states won and delegates on super tuesday, I think she won't be able to stop him in the rest of Feb.
I agree with much of the analysis on this thread. HRC really needed to kill Obama off February 5th. It doesn't appear to be happening. He's tightening everywhere. I think HRC will come out on top in the delegate count, but the difference will not be impregnable, thus ensuring an ongoing horserace into March and beyond. For political junkies like me, this is the sweetest heroin indeed.
What ChrisNBama said. People aren't talking about another thing: HRC's $. We don't know anything about her burn rate, her fundraising $. Three big states in March-April (TX, OH, PA) and a lot of "smaller" ones before that which favor Obama. HRC needed a TKO and it isn't going to happen. If Obama keeps the delegate margin under 100, he's going to be the nominee.
Some comments on the money war: 1. Obama raised $32 million in Jan. The Clinton campaign's response: no comment. 2. A little more than half of Clinton's contributors are maxed out. A little less than a third of Obama's are. 3. Obama has ads up in 22 states; HRC, in 12. 4. Obama's generally positive media coverage: priceless.
It isn't just that -- HRC isn't on the air and I don't believe has focused at all on the post 2/5 states. All we know is where he was on January 1st. We know Obama raised $33M in January and appears confident they have the money to go strongly to PA. HRC? We just don't know. Isn't that an important question?
Chris R - This morning on MTP, Russert said HRC had raised $10 Million in January. If Obama pulls off a stronger than expected showing on Feb. 5th, that will energise his base, who will throw money at him - he'll be flush with cash. HRC, will have money, but won't be able to compete as effectively. I think she and Bill are about to go bezerk again. Also, as was said above. She needs a TKO on Feb. 5th. She's not going to get it. HRC and her firewalls!
Sue. That's $10M in Jan. Let's assume a $15-20M burn rate in Jan -- to me, that seems conservative as the burn rate for 2/5 should be remarkable. She had, what, $17M cash in hand on 12/31? I think she's in trouble financially. I really do. And its been pointed out -- a lot of her donors have maxed out. Can she raise money? Yes, but not *that* much and not enought to offset Obama's edge in: the 2/5-3/4 state, the terrain of which heavily favors Obama anyway. The 3/4 states, TX and OH, which necessitates significant spending.
Chris R. - Agreed. HRC is in trouble on the money front. She also thought that OH was going to be a firewall for her, but TX (way more delegates) has its primary on the same day. From what I have heard/read, TX is falling for Obama big time. Given the money issues and Obama looking like the favorite in TX, despite whatever schenanigans she had planned to win OH, I think she's in long-term trouble if she doesn't do as well as hoped on Feb. 5th.
Sue, what frustrates me a little is that few people see this now. We're all focused on Tuesday and for good reason. But I think the polls tightening means that HRC can't score the 200+ delegate margin TKO she hoped for. She wins by 100 or less and Obama might be able to pick that up by March 4th and have a slight lead. And he would enter March 4th with momentum, money and organization advantages.
Chris R - I think people aren't focused on the post-Feb 5th implications yet because many believed the polls and assumed they wouldn't tighten in time, and there was a lot of fear that Obama would just not have enough time to educate voters in 22 states about himself for it to make a difference. But, the cascade of good news for a week has changed that - winning SC, the Kennedy endorsements (add Rory and Ethel Kennedy to the list yesterday), JE dropping out, the strong debate performance, the LA times endorsement, largest Latino newspaper endorsement, etc.... He's dominating the final news cycles (including Oprah, Caroline K. today) with positive news (free advertising), in addition to his own advertising and it's doing the trick. It isn't over yet, but it's looking really good. I don't think he'll blow her out of the water on Feb. 5th. He just has to do well, and I think he will.
Have you seen the Yes We Can video? Here's the link. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYY It's too soon to call this thing, but I really feel that Obama is going to be our next president, and it's going to be the coolest thing ever. It's not just the "inspiration" thing - I think he'll actually deliver on a lot of his campaign promises. Decades from now, democrats will be talking about Obama as their Regan.
Zogby Polls are crap. Look at Mclatcy/MSNBC polls. Clinton leading cofortably in CA, NJ and national
I believe a vote for Barack Obama would like a breath of fresh air, as compared to aiding & abetting the Clintons in their de facto end-run around the 22nd Amendment (Bill Clinton running for a third term as president). Does a leopard change its spots? Women are also nothing new to high office. There have been Queens as long as there have been Kings. We will have a woman president, but I think we'll know her when we see her. She'll have that certain something. But whatever that something, we're certainly seeing it in Obama: http://theseedsof9-11.com
Hillary was supposed to have a lock on the NY tristate area (NY, CT, NJ). And people wonder why Eagles fans have an inferiority complex...
Obama is clearly trying to extend this race so he can. His trajectory in the polls most likely crosses hers on the 9th or 10th. If he ties her on Tsunami Tuesday, the race is his. http://www.politicalinaction.com
ava : Decades from now, democrats will be talking about Obama as their Regan.
YES WE CAN YES WE CAN YES WE CAN A bunch of us were out passing out flyers and stickers today on 34th street in Manhattan and the reaction was EXTREMELY positive! Change is in the air
I don't necessarily read Obama's absence as confidence rather than plain smarts. He knows that, in order to win, he needs to do well in ALL 2/5 states. It behooves him to show up, especially while HRC limits herself to four states. Look at his appearance in ID - a state not used to seeing presidential candidates, period. Far more showed up at his rally than normally caucus... Let's also remember that a fair amount of Clinton's cash is for the general, not the primary. This is where Obama's confidence kicks in - thousands and thousands who haven't come close to maxing out. All those $25 and $50 donations can add up when you have hundreds of thousands in your base.
Good, Gordons!
What all the previous posts are forgetting is mail in balloting. It seems to me Calif. started mail in over a month ago and the Clintons were 20+ points ahead in that. That could be the Clintons 200+ delegate TKO right there. I don't know if other states have mail in early ballots, but I can't imagine they don't. They are the establishment and Obama has a very long row to hoe in this. Just because he's getting fabulous press now, it may be too little too late. Don't underestimate the Clintons. Polls have been highly inaccurate all year. Be careful here...
I saw Michelle Obama speak today at UCLA, and she absolutely rocked. Let's not get too snarky about end-runs around the 22nd Amendment, because I am ALL in favor of an Obama Dynasty!
G Davis: I'm assuming that these polls are not excluding early voters. Just like Florida didn't have a Giuliani early vote bounce, I wouldn't expect much of one for Clinton in CA. And I would agree the polls haven't been reliable this year but I don't think they're necessarily skewing Obama's direction. At the very least the trend favors him. And maybe they're even underestimating young and new voters. We'll see on Tuesday. I'm cautiously optimistic.
In Baltimore, I've heard the Feb 12th election referred to as the Tidewater Election. I like that better than Potomac or Chesapeake.
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Yeah, there showing here in Maryland too.
Posted by Lesley | February 3, 2008 8:24 AM