His campaign says that 20,000 people showed up in St. Louis tonight.
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There were similar reports the 5 days leading up to NH. Crowd size was seen as a sure sign that Obama was about to bury Clinton. 
There were similar reports the 5 days leading up to NH. Crowd size was seen as a sure sign that Obama was about to bury Clinton. Very good point.
Crowd size matters in caucus states. The event in Boise was at 7am. 7am! It's fair to say that Obama will win ID. He'll win MN too, but I expect it to be something like 53-47.
I know everyone wants to see NH as a crushing defeat for Obama, but let's step back for a second. From the beginning of the campaign, NH was supposed to be Clinton's "firewall" state -- even if she lost in Iowa, she was supposed to win in New Hampshire to slow Obama or Edwards' momentum. Before the Iowa caucuses, she held double-digit leads in almost every poll. The demographics certainly favored her, and she had the help of the entrenched Democratic establishment organization. In other words, no one expected Obama to win New Hampshire ... until after he won Iowa and everyone got a little carried away and the polls started showing ridiculous numbers. Truth is,the fact that he was able to come within a couple of percentage points despite all the disadvantages was pretty impressive and did indicate growing support. Plus, let's not forget that he came out of New Hampshire with exactly as many delegates as Clinton did. And that's his goal on Super Tuesday -- not necessarily to rack up the wins, but to keep the delegate count close. The Feb. 5 primaries are Hillary's strongest states; if he can survive Tuesday, he stands a good shot in the contests ahead.
Despite Clinton's lead and her institutional advantages, Obama *was* about to bury Clinton in New Hampshire -- until she got a little emotional, media hyped and overreported the incident, and women struck back for someone they felt was being disrespected for no good reason. Since then, Clinton has stabbed New Hampshire in the back by breaking her own pledge to abide by the DNC rules on Michigan and Florida -- a broken pledge that could destroy New Hampshire's primary role in 2012. Once she had what she wanted from them, she kicked them to the curb.
i think one could dispute the notion that the demographics of NH favored clinton. there was a backlash against the media, there was the emotion, and there was the clinton institutional support and superior ground organization that all combined to tip the state to hillary. It's a shame b/c Obama could have/should have won NH. The campaign admits that they made a strategic error in how they approached those last 5 days. Big crowds with big speeches didn't win over the last minute undecideds.
...and the Blues won 4-3 over the Red Wings...;) Seriously, though for all the talk of Obama's great "surges" the gap between he and Hillary hasn't changed substantially over the past couple of months. On the national level, Obama's lowest polling in 2008 (Rasmussen) was 24% at the beginning of the year and he is now at 37% in the latest daily tracking. Hillary's lowest point was 32% (between Iowa and New Hampshire), and she is now at 45%. Both have registered net gains of 13% over that period, mainly at the expense of the late (and not very great) John Edwards. There is a lot of noise and commotion surrounding Obama, but ultimately it never amounts to much. Curiosity seekers get their fix and move on.
An overly dismissive statement Robert Ethan. Althought I think it is fair to question whether Obama's crowds will ultimately translate into votes.
An overly dismissive statement Robert Ethan. Althought I think it is fair to question whether Obama's crowds will ultimately translate into votes.
With respect to NH, many people look at the end result, but not the events that occurred on the ground. (1)Hillary played the "crying game." (2)Hillary pulled a last-minute attack targeting female voters, using print mailers and emails that trashed Obama's pro-choice position. One such email was signed by several senior women in NH politics to give it added credibility (even though it was a complete lie). Hillary wasn't that far ahead with women in the pre-primary polling. The last-minute pro-choice smear campaign did that. So, it wasn't just a simple case of Obama being up in the polls and then falling flat "for no reason" - there was a reason alright (several). There was all sorts of chicanery in NH.
The losses in NH and NV didn’t “just happen”. That’s why Obama launched “The Truth Squad” in all states.
Zogby just out. Obama up by 4 in CA. Within 1 in NJ and MO. Within 1 in NJ! Up by 20 in GA. The floodgates will break open.
Some STUNNING polls were just released: Obama is LEADING in a new California poll, while the Field poll has a tie. Obama also forces a tie in Missouri and New Jersey in Zogby's trackings, and even Arizona is uncomfortably close. Full roundup of all these polls here.
There were similar reports the 5 days leading up to NH. Crowd size was seen as a sure sign that Obama was about to bury Clinton. Two distinctions: 1) With 22-24 (I can never remember how many) states at once (even with AFSMCE workers in each), the Clinton campaign can't quite game the numbers as well (although they have taken to outright lying since, the night of the SC primary, they claimed in different media venues that 8000 people came to their Nashville rally when, in fact, maybe 1000 showed up and they were 20 to 1 white people at an historically black university); 2) In NH, Clinton had been ahead all along until Iowa. Then, the Clintons made sure they dominated the media with outrageous comments, pounced on and amplified because of their shock value, and with narrative-changing emotive moments. They also had a superior field organization but even with that, would have lost without the hysterics of Billary and the fake agit-prop of the "Iron My Shirt" man who was really a part of the Clinton campaign. The Clintons love nothing so much as to proclaim themselves victimized: it's really why they're so angry with Oprah-the victim culture she expanded would have been a perfect venue for them to whine their way back to the White House. Damn her for denying them that platform.
Daniel, I saw that CA poll. A new UT poll just came out as well (the first) - Obama leads Hillary 53% to 29% in UT (The Desert Morning News Poll), and he's within 5 points in AZ (Razmussen). He has also pulled into statistical ties with Clinton in New Jersey (43% to 42%) and Missouri (44% to 43%), and is leading Georgia by 20 points (48% to 28%), according to Zogby (polls released tonight). I believe he’s also taken a 4 point lead in CT. This is not good for Hillary. She was supposed to have a lock on the NY tristate area (NY, CT, NJ), now Obama is fighting her in her own backyard. I don’t think he’ll take NY, but CT and NJ are in play. Obama is surging like crazy all across the country. He’s the one with the momentum going into Super Tuesday.
Super Tuesday - Was designed by the Clinton Machine as being her firewall. They new that time was against her and that if anyone got a foothold -it was to her advantage to over extend them early (2/5) and take the advantage away from them. But if she does not gain an overwhelming advantage in the delegate count 2/5 (200 delegates) - it is she who is at a disadvantage -AND SHE KNOWS IT. Expectations have been all along that she would take 2/5 by a big margin -if she doesn't have a big win -ALL the momentum will be Obama's. Remember the Primary system was desiged to give voice to ALL Democrats in ALL states not silence them. Half the states still won't have been heard from UNTIL AFTER 2/5. They matter too. For once, everyone will decide.
"Iron My Shirt" man who was really a part of the Clinton campaign Evidence?
The crowd size and NH analogy mademe think of a possible dynamic here. In NH people thought,based on polling, that Obama was a lock and so some young voters did not bother and some independents decided to play in the republican primary and vote for McCain. This time the situation is reversed. McCain seems like a lock and so I wonder if more idependents turn out for Obama in states where they can, i.e CA. The one similarity potentially n Hillary's favor is that I think we are going to see some quais-emotional moment at the very end to sway female voters. I am a little worried about that Hallmark Channel event on Monday night. It is getting a lot fo plugs by the media and HIllary is going to have total control over that thing and it will even look a little like a real moderated event because carol simpson will be there. Remember when the Bush administration made fake news pieces for local tv stations about medicare that were really propganda? Well, I think by bringing in Carol Simpson, the Hillary folks are going to try to do the same thing. I am guessing that there is going to be some emotional pitch to women at that event. She might start talking about Bill cheating on her, or play victim in some way. And I think she is banking on a last minute female surge just like in NH. The bottom line is that Obama does have improtant momentum right now. I think the only thing that can slow it right now is some gender based moment...and look to the Hillary campaign and the media to try to manufacture one in the next 48 hours.
Reagrding the Iron my Shirt episode, there is no conclusive evidence that they were planted but there are 2 very suspcious things that lead some to conclude that. 1) As soon as they started yelling, hillary asked that the lights in the room be turned up so that all, including the TV cameras, could get a good look. She was totally playing stage manager. 2) One of the guys had a Hillary Clinton for President sticker on his carrying case. This is one news account of those two suspicious details. http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dc/2008/01/sexist-jamokes-disrupt-hillary.html Anyways, we don't know for sure, but Hillary has been caught planting before and my guess is that this was staged. It is just way too convenient. It does not pass the smell test. People kecek because they are anti-war or 9/11 conspiracy theorists....an iron my shirt protest in this day and age does not seem credible at all, unless you are trying to whip up the older, working class female vote in the hours before an election. When you do, make sure the lights are on so the cameras can get a great look!
Reagrding the Iron my Shirt episode, there is no conclusive evidence that they were planted but there are 2 very suspcious things that lead some to conclude that. 1) As soon as they started yelling, hillary asked that the lights in the room be turned up so that all, including the TV cameras, could get a good look. She was totally playing stage manager. 2) One of the guys had a Hillary Clinton for President sticker on his carrying case. This is one news account of those two suspicious details. http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dc/2008/01/sexist-jamokes-disrupt-hillary.html Anyways, we don't know for sure, but Hillary has been caught planting before and my guess is that this was staged. It is just way too convenient. It does not pass the smell test. People kecek because they are anti-war or 9/11 conspiracy theorists....an iron my shirt protest in this day and age does not seem credible at all, unless you are trying to whip up the older, working class female vote in the hours before an election. When you do, make sure the lights are on so the cameras can get a great look!
Iron my shirt was a WBCN gag (boston radio), but Whourley might have cooperated or put them up to it. So take it for what it's worth... But the premise that gender is playing no role in this election is patently absurd. Hillary gets away with what she can. As for NH, I hate to say it but robert ethan has a point. Crowds alone do not mean a win, and Obama was up in NH as well before he came up short. BUT, the essential point is astonishing. Obama _does_ get people interested and invested in politics--i have stood in those lines, seen those crowds. The people are also often former Hillary supporters. Hillary was way up in CA and NJ and now that lead has essentially evaporated. Either it was always only name recognition, or she has lost ground to Obama as he becomes better known. Her ceiling appears to be high 40s, he has not hit his ceiling yet. He will do much better in NY than the polls suggest. It could well be a photo finish. The rest is conjecture. But I do wish Gore would step in. He would be the tipping point and make the difference in deciding whether the White House belongs to Washington or to the American people.
Jesus Christ, the level of conspiracy theorizing and Hillary hating here is pathetic! I'm an Edwards guy who's going to vote for Obama in a couple of weeks, but let's face a few uncomfortable facts - HRC won in NH and Nevada in large part because she had a very good ground operation in NH headed by a well-known pro, Michael Whouley, and another one in Nevada led by Rory Reid, the son of the Majority Leader. The idea that HRC secretly won because she used "Iron My Shirt" guy as a reverse dirty trick or that she used one moment when she misted up over what the campaign meant to her (damn you for your emotion, woman, you're supposed to be a nut-cutting robot!) to steal the primary from Obama is horseshit. Ditto the theory, which I've heard but for which I've seen no corroboration anywhere, that HRC strongarmed her way to a win in Nevada. There's a lot of talk here about Clinton whining, but all the whining here seems to be coming from Obama folks. Suck it up, admit your guy lost, and move on. He's in excellent shape for Super Tuesday, and when he points out on the merits how stupidly hawkish HRC was on Iraq and Iran he's on the top of his game. Leave the conspiracy theories and the whining out, and Obama will do just fine.
It's no conspiracy, scott: Hillary won NH in large part because of two lies: (1) the last-minute fliers falsely attacking Obama on his pro-choice record (which some of the signatories have since denounced) and (2) Hillary promise to honor NH's place in the primary process by not supporting the seating of MI and FL delegates. The crying bit, I hate to say, was just good politics, and I agree with RKA that she will likely attempt something similar on Monday at her televised town hall (talking openly about Bill's cheating might do the trick). In order to counter that, Obama may need the Gores' endorsement on Monday -- yes, the Gores plural, as in Al and Tipper. If it's only Al, Hillary may once again be able to successfully play the "ganging-up-on-me" gender-victim card.
Every time you think a crowd of 10 thousand or 15 thousand is telling or conclusive, remember that in los Angeles that means millions of people didn't show up. people go see bad movies and parades in larger numbers, many more show up to audition for american idol in its audition cities. But it's funny reading the group think.
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22,000 in Boise (7,000 turned away)
20,000 in MN
7,000 in DC (w/24hrs notice)
I think it's a mistake to call this a run of the mill campaign.
I really hope Gore decides to step in and lend a hand. It could be the tipping point.
Posted by JC | February 2, 2008 11:22 PM