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Obama Up

19 Feb 2008 09:15 am

A surprise Clinton win in Wisconsin would surely bollox this up, but Barack Obama now has a seven point lead in Gallup's national tracking, having gained among women, Hispanics and self-identified Democrats. He is also gaining appreciably in the West.

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"He is also gaining appreciably in the West."

Unfortunately the West (except Oregon) has already voted.

With most of the country already having voted, national Clinton-Obama polls don't seem to mean much at this stage.

I guess one thing polls like this do show is that Obama tends to wear well and catch on as marginal voters become more familiar with him.

Posted by John Z., Mt. Pleasant, IA | February 19, 2008 9:54 AM

A surprise Clinton win in Wisconsin

Gosh, I know! What a shocker if Clinton were to win a state demographically friendly to her candidacy, in which the most recent polls have demonstrated a tight race!

The Comeback Kid rides again!

Posted by Jeff Larson | February 19, 2008 11:35 AM

The problem is that her best demographic, the uninformed voter, can evaporate by transforming into an informed voter. It's a race against time, and her best shot was super Tuesday.

Posted by Phoebe | February 19, 2008 12:08 PM

The Wisconsin Primary is open to independents and republicans and has same day registration.

Unlike NH,

1) Independents will not be torn by voting for McCain.

2) University of Wisconsin is pretty big and Milwaukee has a sizable black community.

3) Voting in sub zero temperatures requires commitment and do Hillary sympathizers have enough enthusiasm to turn out in droves?

4) Barack outspent Hillary more than 4:1 and spent many many days in WI.

5) People have heard about Obama's 8 straight and know Iowa was not just a one-off.

Posted by yiannis | February 19, 2008 1:43 PM

It is clear that Barack Obama is attracting much more excitement than Hillary Clinton. I don't see how Clinton can stop Barack Obama from winning the nomination.

Posted by Sheldon | February 19, 2008 2:22 PM

You used yesterday's poll. today's Gallup shows Obama up 1 over Clinton.

Posted by Abby | February 19, 2008 3:19 PM