As I do more reporting on PSD -- that's Patti Solis Doyle's resignation, I see that the Associated Press has called the state of Maine for Barack Obama.
« Patti Solis Doyle's Letter | Main | An Obama Memo: Sweep » Obama Wins Maine10 Feb 2008 06:38 pm Comments (31)
On the PSD "latina" angle that Drudge is playing up: about a week ago my house got robocalled by the Hillary campaign. My wife is Puerto Rican, and the call was from PSD, emphasizing that she was the first latina to run a national campaign. There was an eye-rollingly strong emphasis on the word "latina" on the call, so its not like the Clintons haven't been trying to use PSD's ethnicity to their advantage in the past. 
She will stick it in until Ohio and Texas. But mark my words. If he wins one - or better yet the two - I don't think she will be able to resist the pressure to leave. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. We have some other races in February that needs some ass-kicking. Wisconsin in particular looks shakier than people (including me) had assumed.
I take it the, er, "Baldacci Machine" isn't what it once was?
With 70% of precincts reporting, Obama is ahead 58% to 41%.
Yes We Can. We are fired up & ready to go. Barack is the best choice for President this year.
No one would have predicted it? I think not. My son called it for Obama after the Bangor rally. His estimate was 60-40, not far off from the total. BTW, Maine is THE WHITEST STATE IN THE COUNTRY.
I don't see why Wisconsin wouldn't go for Obama. There's no special connection to the Clintons there, all the other Midwestern states have gone for Obama save Michigan where no one campaigned and Wisconsin has the combination of urban Milwaukee and progressive-minded Madison that are both prime Obama territory. I mean this is a Feingold state the same way Minnesota is a Wellstone state. And while this is an extremely slight sample, I made some calls for the Obama campaign today to some women in the state and most of the women were strongly for Obama while everyone else was undecided but willing to consider him and had nothing bad to say about him. No one was strongly pro-Clinton or anti-Obama. There's no reason the momentum shouldn't sweep these women up and get them voting for Obama at the polls.
Well, how about that? There's hope yet for everyone aiming to get a Democrat in the White House over McCain.
It's beginning to look like people are waking up to the fact that even moderate Republicans and independents can't STAND her and that you can't win a general election unless you can bring over people from the other side. Exit polls continue to show that Obama's race is far less a factor than Hillary's negatives..too numerous to mention here.
What was that again about the Baldacci Machine, Marc? Eh? :)
Marc...I will just refer you to your previous blog...telling Obama supporters not to assume he would win.."we didn't" but "he did" BIG TIME
Marc...I will just refer you to your previous blog...telling Obama supporters not to assume he would win.."we didn't" but "he did" BIG TIME
There haven't been too many states like Wisconsin that have had primaries, rather than caucuses. Illinois, but obviously Obama was expected to win there. Otherwise, I guess Missouri is closest demographically (although not really very close at all) and Obama barely won there. But the state doesn't have a huge number of black people, and has some white working class elements, no? I don't see why Clinton, if she chose to compete there, wouldn't have a shot at it.
Obama will own Madison, and will presumably do very well in Milwaukee. I would guess he'll do well in the quite liberal Western part of WI too. I don't have a feel for how the Milwaukee suburbs, the Fox Valley (where I live now -- the most conservative part of WI), and the frozen center and North of the state feel about Clinton. The true conservatives despise her, of course (just describing, not saying that's fair), but those folks are almost all Republicans. The Democrats in those areas may go hard for Clinton. Still, with no polls to go on, I'll wager that this is a fairly easy win for Obama.
One big difference between WI and MO: Missouri doesn't have a liberal bastion like Madison. Democratic bastions, yes, but Obama is money in college towns.
@ mrsaturdaypants Don't know whether the folks of the Fox Valley will care but the Wisconsin primary is an open primary :)
"Everything I have said has been factually accurate. I have never said anything factually incorrect against Senator Obama." - WJC/MSNBC - Roll of the Dice - This is the biggest fairy tale I have heard. Give me a break. - Jessie Jackson won SC twice (1984, 1988). He ran a good campaign. Sen. Obama has run a good campaign. Etc. Etc. Etc.
It sort of does seem like the Clintons just gave up, not spending enough resources organizing the post 2/5 states, because they never expected to have a contest this late. This lack of foresight, is extremely apparent with their fund raising surprise, management shakeups, and complete lack of organization in the caucus states. Sure Obama spent some time and effort into these contests, but he's running up the score on pledged delegates in them, and holding even in the big primaries. Can Hillary go into March with these humiliating losses and survive? I predict Hillary will drop out of the race on March 5th after losing Ohio and Texas. Momentum and excitement are not on her side.
Actually, for WI there is a post-Feb. 5 poll (ARG) showing Clinton +9. Obama can certainly win there, yes, but let us not put the cart before the horse. Things should look a lot clearer after Tuesday. Can Clinton hold onto VA, or at least come very close?
Regarding Ohio, there was an article in the times today about how Secretary of State Jennifer L Brunner, Democrat, wants to get everybody who wants one a paper ballot in touch screen dominated Ohio. This will only cost 68,000 dollars, but "some state officials" have legally challenged her on it, so that right now she is legally not allowed to go ahead and provide those ballots. The touch screens are hackable, and after the 2004 election there were some indictments of Ohio state officials for manipulating the vote so as to avoid an official recount. i wonder why these state officials would challenge her on something as straightforward as providing paper ballots, to the point of taking it to court? Sounds very suspicious. It is imperative we get a fair vote in Ohio.
"It sort of does seem like the Clintons just gave up, not spending enough resources organizing the post 2/5 states, because they never expected to have a contest this late. This lack of foresight, is extremely apparent with their fund raising surprise, management shakeups, and complete lack of organization in the caucus states. Sure Obama spent some time and effort into these contests, but he's running up the score on pledged delegates in them, and holding even in the big primaries. Can Hillary go into March with these humiliating losses and survive?" They took the first day off after Feb. 5 because they had no schedule. They took 2 days to go up on the air in Feb. 9 states, I can only assume because they had no money. I think at this point it is abundantly clear who has run their campaign with more managerial skill.
John, Maybe this is my perspective as an Illinoisan talking here but with all due respect, Missouri and Wisconsin are very different in many key ways that make it a more favorable state for Obama. Sure, both states border the Mississippi river and are considered to be the Midwest. Also, Missouri probably has a higher percentage of African-Americans which one might think would play a key role in determining Obama's viability (though since Obama has pretty much won all the whitest states in the union I'm not sure how long people can continue to make that argument). There are many key differences between Missouri and Wisconsin that might not be apparent at first, especially to those on the East and West coasts, but are very key to the respective candidates' chances. Missouri has no Air America affiliate the way that Wisconsin does in Madison. Missouri has no history of supporting strong progressives from Fighting Bob LaFollette to Feingold the way that Wisconsin does. This is key in understanding the states when you consider that Missouri sent a Republican to the Senate in 2002 as the state was so pro-Bush then whereas Wisconsin re-elected a Democrat in 2004 who had opposed the Iraq War. Parts of Missouri are distinctly Southern with a strong affinity for country music (i.e. Branson) and this state has a history as a slave state while Wisconsin has no such cultural heritage being up there way north by the Great Lakes. Wisconsin is more tied into its fellow states with Big Ten schools the way that Missouri is more tied into its fellow states with Big 12 schools. It seems odd I know to break down the country based on athletic conferences but in this instance I think it absolutely makes sense. Wisconsin's closest kin is probably Minnesota, which went overwhelmingly for Obama, the same way Missouri's closest kin is probably Arkansas, which went overwhelmingly for Clinton.
Hillary had huge name recognition and big leads before Iowa everywhere. Where Obama has campaigned, he has won. Democrats have huge affection for the Clintons, and New Hampshire was a sympathy vote. They basically tied NM, and Obama won decisively in SC. Super Tuesday was too big (this NJ voter never saw one commercial) and Obama couldn't overcome the Hillary name recognition in NY/NJ, MA, and CA. The biggest most expensive media markets. Since then, it has been one sided for Obama. Those Democrats voting out of sympathy for Hillary feel now that she can leave with her head held high and are now voting for Obama. I'd love to see Hillary get Reid's job, and a big party gesture, like leaving earlier than later, would be a good way to do it.
WI is a great test at a great moment. Can Obama Edwardsify enough to draw lunchbucket Democrats? I would also look hard at Northern VA and across MD Tuesday to see if Obama is extending his reach.
"As I do more reporting on PSD -- that's Patti Solis Doyle's resignation, I see that the Associated Press has called the state of Maine for Barack Obama" By all means, don't let Obama winning 5 out of 5 contests this weekend distract you from posting more Clinton press releases.
I'm from Maine (but currently living in Korea) and any talk of any kind of political machine in Maine is very stupid. Maine is one of the most independent minded-states in the nation and it should've been easy to predict that Maine was going to go for Obama since Maine generally always votes against party line insider types. Perot did his best outside of Texas in Maine and all of those sort of voters are much more likely to go for Obama than Clinton.
As James Carville once said - when your opponent is sinking throw him an anvil. It is abundantly clear to everyone - including Hillary's supporters - that she has run a terrible campaign. She's run out of momentum, money and management at probably the most critical moment in the primary season. It is not a fluke or bad luck. She has never personally been tried before. She skated to a win in her Senatorial run while Bill was still President and Rudy pulled out as her opposition at the last minute. All she had to do was show up, look competent and not make any big mistake. But that's not enough now. She has let her supporters down, watching her be humiliated in repeated landslide wins through arrogance, bad planning and management - not a great calling card. This will do more to hurt her than any wound Obama could inflict.
I was assuming Obama would do well in Wisconsin based on its proximity to Illinois and Minnesota and my knowledge of its political culture. But then that recent poll came out, and now I am less sure. But Wisconsin is still a long way away, so we shall see.
"Obama Wins Maine" This is the biggest fairy tale I have ever heard. Give me a break.
The Wisconsin polls show Hillary leading Barack, so it will be quite an upset for him to win Wisconsin.
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This is quite a remarkable win. I don't think anyone would have predicted he'd win here, much less dominated it like he appears to have done.
And now with the Clinton campaign in tatters, it may be time for her to step aside and spare the party a drawn out battle.
Posted by Mike | February 10, 2008 6:44 PM