Puerto Rico Votes

No one expects this to go to June. Are you paying attention to delegate counts....do you see what is happening in Feb. alone? She is going to have to win Texas and Ohio by a landslide in order to pull this out. Are you aware that delegates in dem primary are awarded proportionately? Even if she were to win PR she would only get one or two additional delegates. This is a war of attrition. We are watching the Clintons lose in slow motion. Obama will be competitive in each and every state from now on. Even if he loses it will be close and she cannot overcome his lead (or it is unlikely that she can overcome--of course she could)

Are you shilling for the Clintons?

Posted by heather | February 11, 2008 11:36 AM

Marc, this is pathetic. How many times are you going to move Hillary's firewall?

What do you post on the Harvard for Hillary board???

Posted by David | February 11, 2008 11:37 AM

PR gets 63 delegates? wow that seems like a boat load? Is that correct?

Posted by whoa Now | February 11, 2008 11:42 AM

Heather: what lead are you talking about?
you are imagining things in slow motion. the future hasn't happened yet and the handwriting isn't on the wall yet. Let people vote. are you suggesting he's inevitable? hasn't such thought worked against candidates in this cycle already?
Obama's campaign is essentially tied by CBS calculations for pledged delegates and behind in superdelegates.
The point of marc's and barone's posts are that math is different in PR and it might work against barack and potentially in a big way. Gosh, I'd pay attention.
I also don't see anything that looks like attrition.

Posted by Michael C. | February 11, 2008 11:45 AM

maybe between now and the convention, America can add some new states that would vote for Hillary and can put her over the top!

55 United States Before August! YES WE CAN!

Posted by rob! | February 11, 2008 11:58 AM

Well, if you think Hillary is winning, you are nuts!

Hillary is losing, bigtime!

Posted by ME | February 11, 2008 11:58 AM

If the GOP (finally)gets behind McCain and he can start to attack the Democrats generally as a party, I think there will be a greater impulse to quickly get things over with for the Democrats, and undecided Democrats will gravitate towards the leader at the time. Heading into March, that looks to be Obama, and it might make things very difficult for Clinton to gain traction against him.

Posted by CMC79 | February 11, 2008 11:58 AM

One of the comments over in Barone's post indicates that Jesse Jackson once won PR. I thought that meant it didn't count?

Posted by Jeff Larson | February 11, 2008 11:59 AM

Uh, no, according the the CBS News website, their overall delegate count, which shows them basically tied, *includes* super delegates. He's well ahead in pledged, behind in supers.

Posted by Mark | February 11, 2008 12:06 PM

The Colony selects the candidate for President of the US Empire for the Democrat party.

This could be an alternate article title.

Posted by Boricua | February 11, 2008 12:10 PM

I'd expect Hillary to take a large majority of Puerto Rico's delegates, even if they are allocated proportionally. There's a lot of movement between Puerto Rico and New York, so a great many PR residents have lived in New York and/or have family there. And Clinton dominated 73%-26% among Hispanics in New York state, where the Hispanic population is mostly Puerto Rican.

Posted by Josh Barro | February 11, 2008 12:12 PM

"Last minute boost of adrenaline"?

Marc, I know you're probably convinced all the commenters are shitting on you because they're Obamabots, but I at least am shitting on you because you seem to be deliberately parodying yourself at this point.

Posted by Some dude | February 11, 2008 12:16 PM

For those surprised PR has so many delegates, remember that the DNC gave bonus delegates to "states" (or whatever) that left their contests late in the year.

As for the belief that Puerto Rico is rigged and does not have genuine elections, I think Barone is just making it up. He doesn't offer a bit of evidence. Every late contest has done completely to the winner in recent years.

Posted by John DE | February 11, 2008 12:26 PM

Yeah, have to agree with some dude here. That's really a ridiculous phrase, Marc, and I can only conclude that it's intended as a subtle way to make fun of the idea you're pretending to express.

"Last-minute shot of adrenaline?" Normally you need a surge of adrenaline *before* running the race, not right at the end, after you lose it. But the metaphor makes sense, I guess, if you're thinking about reviving a patient with heart failure.

Posted by Ted | February 11, 2008 12:27 PM

Puerto Rico is the new Texas/Ohio.

Posted by Jeff Larson | February 11, 2008 12:41 PM

I am overly optimistic having recovered from the 3 digit loss in NH. Here is why:

Obama has gobbs more money.
Obama has gobbs more contributors.
Obama has huge rallies that seem to be growing bigger rather than smaller.
Obama made 45,000 calls via at home people like me in the past 3-4 days and wants to make 55,000 more calls over the next 3-4 days.
On Tuesday night Obama will probably be celebrating 8 wins out of 8 contests in 8 days...
Obama is leading in delegates (including or not including superdelegates).
On Tuesday night Obama's delegate lead will grow and he will become the candidate with the most delegates--on all delegate counting boards from CNN to CBS.
Obama has won the most states.
Obama has won the most votes if you don't count MI and FL and as this month winds down he should be able to say he has the most votes no matter what.
Most delegates, most states, most votes...

There is reason to be optimistic and to think that PR will have little to no effect.

Posted by heather | February 11, 2008 12:58 PM

Oh, Marc. This post is just, well, sad. Puerto Rico is the new Ohio/Texas now? SMH

Hey, Obamabots, I guess that means Texas and Ohio don't count anymore. LOL

Posted by Kelley | February 11, 2008 1:07 PM

the dems will make sure this is decided at the VERY LATEST after Pennsylvania. The Party knows this fight can't drag out through the summer. There's a lot of time between now and Texas Ohio. I suspect one candidate will win both and at that point the race will be over. If Clinton wins, it guarantees Pennsylvania for her. If Obama wins, it's the final death blow. If they split....well let's try not to think about that (though, probably advantage Obama given he will have won more states and delegates). But puerto Rico? Nobody here will give a damn what they say. Besides, who says that's Clinton country? Obama is seen as more "worldly." It may be more appealing to those abroad. It's interesting the difference in preferences among different groups of Latinos. I second that it would be nice to have some analysis of this. How do Texas Latinos compare to those of CA, AZ, and NM? Are they 2nd or 3rd generation citizens, or are they more recent immigrants to America. Is it in fact the generational divide that accounted for Obama's greater success with Latinos in NM? Was is something else? I'm curious.

Posted by blue MN | February 11, 2008 1:08 PM

Will the race still be undecided by then? I'm thinking either Obama 's recent mojo ices the win, or else his fast collapse to Hillary in Texas and Ohio makes him a loser.

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by matt | February 11, 2008 1:16 PM

I see they opened the gates to the CULT COMPOUND and let a few of the inmates out. :(.

It is a virtual delegate TIE at the moment, with Hillary's BIGGEST AND BEST STATES up ahead.

The MAINSTREAM MEDIA and the POLITICAL WEBSITES PAID BY THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN such as Politico and Drudge have been so effective in their CORRUPT BIAS that they even manage to brainwash the BRAINWASHED.

Touch base with reality now and then, CULTISTS.

Oh, and call your parents, they're worried about you.

Posted by robert ethan | February 11, 2008 1:20 PM

I see they opened the gates to the CULT COMPOUND and let a few of the inmates out. :(.

It is a virtual delegate TIE at the moment, with Hillary's BIGGEST AND BEST STATES up ahead.

The MAINSTREAM MEDIA and the POLITICAL WEBSITES PAID BY THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN such as Politico and Drudge have been so effective in their CORRUPT BIAS that they even manage to brainwash the BRAINWASHED.

Touch base with reality now and then, CULTISTS.

Oh, and call your parents, they're worried about you.

Posted by robert ethan | February 11, 2008 1:21 PM

I see they opened the gates to the CULT COMPOUND and let a few of the inmates out. :(.

It is a virtual delegate TIE at the moment, with Hillary's BIGGEST AND BEST STATES up ahead.

The MAINSTREAM MEDIA and the POLITICAL WEBSITES PAID BY THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN such as Politico and Drudge have been so effective in their CORRUPT BIAS that they even manage to brainwash the BRAINWASHED.

Touch base with reality now and then, CULTISTS.

Oh, and call your parents, they're worried about you.

Posted by robert ethan | February 11, 2008 1:21 PM

I'm responding to someone who's clearly insane, but I can't resist feeding the trolls...

"It is a virtual delegate TIE at the moment, with Hillary's BIGGEST AND BEST STATES up ahead."

New York? California? Her home state of Illinois?

Posted by Jeff Larson | February 11, 2008 1:34 PM

Firewall 1.0 - New Hampshire
Firewall 2.0 - Nevada
Firewall 95 - Super Tuesday
Firewall 4.0 & 4.5 - Washington & Maine
Firewall Millenium - Virginia (ok that one is a stretch)
Firewall 6.0/7.0 - Texas & Ohio
Firewall XT - Florida & Michigan get seated becase she won there
Firewall Vista - Pennsylvania
Firewall - Mac Leopard - Puerto Rico

I'm sure I'm missing something, but that's a pretty good list.

Marc, I appreciate that you ate your Wheaties today, but Puerto Rico? You have been paying too much attention to Howard Fineman.

The Democratic voters are seeing what perils lie ahead and they may be starting to end this thing. Tomorrow's margins will be instructive, assuming Hillary decides to acknowledge them.

Posted by swarty | February 11, 2008 1:36 PM

Robert ethan,

Go f*** yourself. That is about as simple as I can say it.

Your ALL CAPS screeching just looks pathetic. Just come out and say that you will vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee.
I have said numerous times that I will support Hillary if she is the nominee. Either be a real democrat or take it elsewhere.

Posted by swarty | February 11, 2008 1:43 PM

Wow, this is the most pathetic thing I've seen. Why not make an actual meaningful post, like an analysis of the effect of the recent and upcoming primaries that's more than a single line?

Posted by m | February 11, 2008 1:45 PM

I EAT FECES!!!

Posted by robert ethan | February 11, 2008 2:19 PM

Well, we'll always have Sullivan and Yglesias for honest reporting.

Posted by Anonymous | February 11, 2008 2:28 PM

I hate to delve into the silly racial dynamic that's spread in this campaign, but latinos are not homogenous. African-Americans and people of Mexican descent have had their clashes based upon fights over resources, but AA's and Puerto Ricans have always had a kinship that supersedes the normal black-brown divide. Hillary folks expecting her to automatically win Puerto Rico because of Latino numbers in CA and NY might be disappointed when Puerto Rico comes around.

Posted by Derrick | February 11, 2008 2:39 PM

What in the world is Barone talking about, with Puerto Rico party bosses somehow managing to get 100% of the delegates for Clinton? Considering that Puerto Rico's primary is in June, it's hardly surprising that, historically, it's had unanimous delegate counts for whoever the presumptive nominee at that point is.

I fail to see how that has any predictive power for contested caucuses.

Posted by John | February 11, 2008 4:26 PM

Swarty said - (among other things)

"Robert Ethan......I've stated numerous times I will support Hillary if she is the nominee. Either be a real Democrat or take it elsewhere..."-

Did you get as upset when Michelle Obama was asked ON NATIONAL TELEVISION if she would support the nominee and she responded "I would have to think about that..."? Imagine if the cameras weren't turned on....

Or does she get a pass on the standards plaguing us mere mortals by being CHOSEN QUEEN OF THE CULT?

Posted by robert ethan | February 11, 2008 4:36 PM

At least be honest... When she was on TV, Michelle was asked if she would work to support Hilary. And her answer was honest. Would she WORK for Hilary.

There is a big difference between voting for someone and working for them. Would I vote for Hilary YES!! With supreme court nominees on the table, I would never vote for a Republican who was not always and clearly pro-choice. But would I work for her? Would I make calls for her and do other volunteer work? I really don't know. I guess a lot would depend on the next several months. I have to truly believe in you to give up what little time I have. And I am sorry if Hilary can not engage in my enthusiasm. But I will vote for her. As a proud Democrat, I will at least promise that much.

I think Michelle gave an honest answer. She would have to think about WORKING for Hilary. She wasn't asked if she would vote for her, she was just asked if she would work for her.

and btw, you keep calling me a cult member doesn't bode well for convincing me I should work for Hilary. If this is how Hilary wants her supporters talking to people, I don't think this cult member will give much time.

Posted by Joshua Gold | February 11, 2008 5:11 PM

After the voters handed Barack Obama a huge victory in the State of Maine, perhaps the handwriting is becoming clearer, and it does indeed bode ill for Hillary Clinton. The State of Virginia weighs in tomorrow and I urge Virginians not to be outdone by South Carolina. It's a win win situation for Virginians who don't like Hillary, but do like Barack. And let me tell you, I do like Barack but not Hillary. I think this is one of the, if not, the, most exciting races I've seen. Hillary Diane has spent a great deal of (your) money telling you how important it is to her. No matter what your predilection Virginia, get out there tomorrow and show 'em what you got: http://theseedsof9-11.com

Posted by Peggy McGilligan | February 11, 2008 6:11 PM

I'm no mind-reader, but I'm about 97% sure that this post was tongue-in-cheek. Really.

Posted by mrsaturdaypants | February 11, 2008 6:28 PM

Obama needs to get past tomorrow before he worries about anything else.

Run each race as if it's your last. Do NOT get cocky.

Posted by G Davis | February 11, 2008 6:43 PM

Joshua Gold, read the post before you go off on a rant. Swarty was ragging me for not "SUPPORTING" the nominee, (potentially). I brought up the point of Michelle Obama not "SUPPORTING" the nominee, (potentially). It's the same thing, the only difference is the candidate in each case.

Posted by robert ethan | February 11, 2008 6:58 PM

Wow, big shocker, Barone wrong, Ambinder too lazy to find that out for himself.

Posted by John | February 11, 2008 8:21 PM

"I'm no mind-reader, but I'm about 97% sure that this post was tongue-in-cheek. Really."

That's a highly logical explanation, but unless
Marc has been incredibly jokey these last two weeks, this post is not out of character for Bizarro Ambinder.

Posted by Jeff Larson | February 11, 2008 9:00 PM

Another blogger analyzing Clinton/Obama with interesting views:

www.whynotboth.com

Posted by Anonymous | February 11, 2008 10:33 PM

I know it is difficult for the Republican supporters to see their dream of a landslide over Hillary snatched away (how's old Romney doing, by the way?) but Puerto Rico's delegates are allocated in the same manner as any other state.

"The Delegate Selection Plan for Puerto Rico provides for its pledged delegates to be allocated proportionally to presidential preferences based on
Senatorial District Caucuses on June 7, 2008."

http://www.prideintheparty.org/pdf/PR.pdf

Puerto Rico has 63 TOTAL delegates

Pledged (elected) delegates: 36
Party leaders (superdelegates+unpledged): 14
At large (usually go to winner of pledged): 12

Puerto Rico's selection process is about the same as any other state Democratic party.

Posted by Get your facts straight | February 12, 2008 11:16 AM

Oddly enough those totals add up to 62, I'm not sure if the missing delegate is due to a mistake in the preliminary plan document or if it represents something interesting about the delegate selection process that I do not know.

Posted by Get your facts straight | February 12, 2008 11:21 AM

Womanh@@ders for Hillery!

Posted by ecoavila | February 13, 2008 12:57 PM

I LIVE PUERTO RICO AND FOR THE FIRST TIME OUR DELEGATES COULD MAKE A DIFERENCE IT`S TIME TO LISTEN TO THE CANDIDATES WHAT THEY HAVE TO SAY ABOUT PUERTO RICO`S POLITICAL STATUS AND OTHER ISSUES THAT CONCERN US IN THE ISLAND.IN THE PAST THEY HAVE ONLY COME TO FOUND RAISERS AND LEFT WITHOUT ANY COMPROMISENOW THER 63 DELEGATES ON THE LINE LET`S LISTEN TO BOTH AND SEE WHO WINS.

Posted by jorge morales | February 17, 2008 9:41 PM

I LIVE PUERTO RICO AND FOR THE FIRST TIME OUR DELEGATES COULD MAKE A DIFERENCE IT`S TIME TO LISTEN TO THE CANDIDATES WHAT THEY HAVE TO SAY ABOUT PUERTO RICO`S POLITICAL STATUS AND OTHER ISSUES THAT CONCERN US IN THE ISLAND.IN THE PAST THEY HAVE ONLY COME TO FOUND RAISERS AND LEFT WITHOUT ANY COMPROMISE, NOW THE ARE 63 DELEGATES ON THE LINE THEY WILL HAVE TO COMPROMISE,LET`S LISTEN TO BOTH AND SEE WHO WINS. HILLARY BETTER OPORTUNITIES TO WIN HERE.

Posted by jorge morales | February 17, 2008 9:50 PM

IT'S NOT OVER TILL, IT'S OVER .....
LET THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS GO FORWARD.

Posted by Jose Chompre | February 18, 2008 3:02 PM

IT'S NOT OVER TILL, IT'S OVER .....
LET THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS GO FORWARD.

Posted by Jose Chompre | February 18, 2008 3:02 PM

Hillary is the best candidate and has done much more for latinos. I don't think Obama has even seen one.

PUERTO RICO PARA HILLARY!!!!

Posted by david | February 25, 2008 3:36 PM

Tell me ONE thing that PR has done for Puerto Rico or latinos.

Posted by Judith in NYC | March 5, 2008 5:58 PM