Republican Coalition Politics

Ex-Bush aide/Giuliani aide/current Romney endorser Patrick Ruffini writes:

"...it seems to me that the conservative establishment’s decision to go nuclear first on Huckabee (who never had a shot but speaks for voters we need in November) before McCain (who always had a shot but speaks mostly for himself) will rank as a pretty serious strategic blunder."

Left unasked is precisely why the establishment felt more threatened by Mike Huckabee that it did by even John McCain. And not just the pro-business, anti-tax wing of the professional conservative establishment: the faith wing, too, from the Family Research Council to various members of the Arlington Group who cast their lot with Fred Thompson, a conservative, to be sure, but someone of an undefined protestant faith who didn't seem to go to church much.

My theory -- and it remains a theory -- is that Huckabee threatened these interests so much because he never depended on them in the past and would never depend on them in the future. In the sense that these interests mediated between leaders and rank-and-file conservatives, Huckabee was able to bypass the mediators and speak directly to faith voters -- the hard core corps of moral conservatives who tend to compromise about 20 to 35% of any given electorate, more so in the South and Midwest.

Another theory, propounded by the likes of David Kuo and other evangelicals, is that Huckabee's economic message (gasp) really did resonate with a large number of evangelical voters -- not just his "undiluted" faith message.

“The question is whether that coalition of self-appointed religious conservative leaders carries any weight with the evangelical grassroots anymore,” Kuo told me for an article in National Journal. “The most conservative religious right base will go with them. But the interesting thing is what happens to the growing middle of evangelical voters for whom abortion isn't the only thing, for whom social justice matters, for whom torture is an affront to God and a moral society. I think McCain will pick up a bunch of those voters.”

Comments

Gov. Mike Huckabee is a true conservative. Vote for Mike!

Posted by Dan | February 2, 2008 6:37 PM

My Arkansas born and raised Daddy always told me, “Its a good life if you don’t weaken”. Now is the time not to weaken for Mike Huckabee! He needs our money, our voices, and our time until Feb. 5th. Let’s take back the White House for America, and say no to more of the same with Mitt Romney or John McCain (John McKennedy)!

Posted by David, Oregon City | February 2, 2008 6:41 PM

Wow! Someone finally gets it!
Just think what a President who wasn't owned by any special interests could do.
Rise up, people. Let's take back the White House!

Posted by Heather | February 2, 2008 6:57 PM

They made a serious mistake. If Huckabee does not get the nomination, I will most likely not support the party nominee. I also have permanently turned off Fox News and no longer listen to Sean Hannity, though I've consumed both of these every chance I got for the past five years. I'm done. They have been so full of themselves and so unfair, while at the same time championing social liberals like Giuliani and Romney (a liberal with a thin coat of conservative paint) that I'm much more furious with the GOP than I've ever been with the Democrats. I feel completely betrayed and there are a lot of people who helped put Bush back in the White House in 2004 who - if they successfully nuke Huck - will just not be there for the party this November. And good luck for them trying to put together another coalition. A few idiots in midtown Manhattan have managed in a couple of months what it took the party decades to build.

Posted by TVV | February 2, 2008 7:01 PM

This really is a good question. The answer may be that establishment Republicans may understand that a Christian candidate like Huckabee would be much less acceptable to voters on a national level than a candidate who is a Christian, like Bush, proved to be.

Going by what happened to the Republican party in my own state, Washington, after the strongly religious elements in the state party put a religious candidate at the top of the ticket, in the race for governor, back in '96, I'd say they would have every reason to be worried about how a Huckabee candidacy would affect the party's future. That excess of religious zeal in my state drove many moderate Republicans into the Democratic camp, and others into the Libertarian party -- consequently, it has been very difficult for Republicans to win statewide elections ever since. As a matter of fact, I don't believe they've won a single one. Both of our senators are Democrats, as is our Governor.

Not that long ago, we were a "swing" state. but not anymore.

Posted by mary | February 2, 2008 7:28 PM

The "Establishment" is not helping their case by attacking a candidate. Huckabee is an INCREDIBLE conservative on ALL levels, with a Pastor's heart. Maybe they can't stand that he actually cares about those of us who struggle to fill up a gas tank for $75!!!! But the approach they have taken in a futile attempt to bury Governor Huckabee will signficantly backfire on them IF it is successful (which I doubt!). The Establishment, including the entrenched "religious right", have shown their true colors and have therefore been marginalized. They are going to have to take Huckabee out this boxing ring on a stretcher if they think he's getting out of the ring at all!!!
Keep up the Faith Huckalovers!

Posted by Huck Supporter | February 2, 2008 8:00 PM

The "Establishment" is not helping their case by attacking a candidate. Huckabee is an INCREDIBLE conservative on ALL levels, with a Pastor's heart. Maybe they can't stand that he actually cares about those of us who struggle to fill up a gas tank for $75!!!! But the approach they have taken in a futile attempt to bury Governor Huckabee will signficantly backfire on them IF it is successful (which I doubt!). The Establishment, including the entrenched "religious right", have shown their true colors and have therefore been marginalized. They are going to have to take Huckabee out this boxing ring on a stretcher if they think he's getting out of the ring at all!!!
Keep the Faith Huckalovers!

Posted by Huck Supporter | February 2, 2008 8:00 PM

The "Establishment" is not helping their case by attacking a candidate. Huckabee is an INCREDIBLE conservative on ALL levels, with a Pastor's heart. Maybe they can't stand that he actually cares about those of us who struggle to fill up a gas tank for $75!!!! But the approach they have taken in a futile attempt to bury Governor Huckabee will signficantly backfire on them IF it is successful (which I doubt!). The Establishment, including the entrenched "religious right", have shown their true colors and have therefore been marginalized. They are going to have to take Huckabee out this boxing ring on a stretcher if they think he's getting out of the ring at all!!!
Keep the Faith Huckalovers!

Posted by Huck Supporter | February 2, 2008 8:00 PM

Great article--I think people try to paint Huckabee as unelectable by exaggerating the amount of anti-Christian bias in this country--but you've hit on why they really don't want him in the White House. Most of the candidates claim to be religious, but what gets me is that Huckabee is rarely the first one to mention his faith. Bill O'Reilly spent an entire interview grilling him about Adam and Eve, when clearly Gov. Huckabee was trying to share his positions on the relevant issues, the FairTax for one, which many conservatives love.

So I would agree that while the media and Republican establishment has repeatedly used his faith to marginalize his candidacy, that is already backfiring (as the Clintons' attempt to marginalize Obama did) by nominating a moderately liberal conservative (McCain, even Romney)and by killing all chances of success in the general election as the marginalized Huckabee/Paul supporters sit out the general election.

Posted by Jodi | February 2, 2008 8:29 PM

Amen to this article!

And to the commenter who blames Bush's religious zeal on the defection of moderate Republicans - I think if you look at the 2006 election results, I think we can safely say that it was not the result of too much religion in D.C...

Posted by Grace | February 3, 2008 1:10 AM

Take away the "Christian" label from Huckabee and you basically get a tax-and-spend liberal. Nothing more.

Posted by ProfNickD | February 3, 2008 11:21 AM

I don't understand the idea that we don't want a pastor for president. The word "pastor" means shepherd. A shepherd cares for their flock, people, in this analogy. A pastor leads and protects by example, has no imidiate power but must have vision and be able to communicate it. A good pastor must be rock solid in their values and convictions. A good president must have skills, but more importantly, a pastor's heart. We can best judge a presidential candidate, or any person for that matter, by looking (actually researching) at their record.

Posted by Jeff Thomas | February 3, 2008 2:22 PM

Maybe the "conservative establishment," meaning talk radio, bloggers, and the conservative press, ought to try supporting a candidate they like (where were they when Fred was in the race?!) rather than "going nuclear" on those whom they don't. The arrogance of the chatterati, calling Republican voters "stupid" and "RINO" for not marching in lockstep and instead voting for Huckabee or McCain, just makes them look stupid and emotionally retarded. They're doing more to destroy the conservative legacy than McCain or Huckabee could ever do, by pushing people away.

Case in point: the commenter above who won't vote if Huckabee isn't the nominee. (A massively self-defeating plan, but still...)

With their feces-flinging at McCain lately, they're doing a great job at turning away potential Republican/conservative recruits. They make me sick. I'm a conservative (and a blogger), but I sure as hell don't want to be lumped in with those hysterical jackals, so why would anyone who isn't conservative want to join ranks with them?

Posted by Beth | February 4, 2008 2:20 AM