Super Tuesday Wire

Early Exit Poll Highlights

(From the AP) - The Republicans
** McCain leads among men, small lead among women overall. (Remember that this characterization is a national sample and that large McCain-favorable states are included.
** McCain has small lead among self ID Republicans and large leads among independents....Romney leads conservatives...
** More than 50% say they were late deciders....
** Economy is most important....
** Men outnumber women.

(From the AP) -- The Democrats

** Obama leads among black voters; HRC leads among Hispanic voters; Obama leading among white men; HRC leading among white women. HRC's margins among women smaller than other states.
** Half of Dem voters made up minds more than a month ago. No late decider data yet.
** Economy is the biggest issue; 7 in 10 said biggest issue was either health care or the economy.
** HRC's voters like experience; Obama's like change.
** 50% of HRC supporters happy enough if Obama won; 50% of Obama supporters happy enough if Clinton won.
** more than 10% of Dem primary voters under 30; 20% over 65.

Comments

I'm thinking the GOP race will be over by the morning. McCain is buoyed by WV and, judging by these polling numbers, is beating Romney among actual GOPers.

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by matt | February 5, 2008 6:14 PM

Yes, I agree with Matt. If McCain is leading among *both* independents and GOPers (albeit losing among conservatives), that's basically it.

Posted by ProfNickD | February 5, 2008 6:28 PM

I confess ignorance. Is 10% for under 30's and 20% for over 65's higher or lower than it usually is?

Posted by Michael T Sweeney | February 5, 2008 6:36 PM

Best I can tell,
9-10% for under 30's and 20% for over 65's is about what we saw in Dem primaries in 2004. Though we are dealing now with different mix of Super Tuesday states etc.

I think "over 10%" for youth vote already is potentially a sign of growth vs 2004...but that could be explained by simple demographics (there are physically more people 18-30 now than in 2004) and Millennials age into the voting age population.

Posted by Wayne | February 5, 2008 6:46 PM

If that's true, Wayne, it's bad news for Obama, no? He has to be counting on a much higher than usual percentage of the youth vote, as well as hoping for a little luck in having the bad weather dampen the old-people vote.

Of course, the ambiguous "over 10%" makes it slightly more difficult to read.

Posted by Michael T Sweeney | February 5, 2008 6:59 PM

Agreed that "over 10%" makes it hard to read.

However, I think Obama's trending/the undecided group breaking may have expanded the relevant demo to under 35 or under 40 rather than just under 30.

Posted by Wayne | February 5, 2008 7:20 PM