What To Watch For In Wisconsin

1. The weather. As I type, the Weather Channel says it's 3 degrees and feels like -12.

2. The Flake Rate: will it be higher among seniors than among millennials?

3. Madison: Will Madison provide the margin of victory for Obama? Remember: Wisconsin allows same-day registration.

4. Working class women. The suburbs of Milwaukee. Sheboygan. Green Bay.

If Hillary Clinton beats expectations, I'll credit the socioeconomic status cleavages among Democrats, but look for Obama's campaign to say that her "negative" direct mail is responsible. Here are two representative screen grabs:

Comments

Pot calling the kettle black?

Posted by Neil Hohmann | February 19, 2008 12:50 PM

Ballsy prediction, Marc. What are those expectations again?

Posted by Jeff Larson | February 19, 2008 12:52 PM

I'm sorry, but shouldn't this read: "Which of these people *doesn't* deserve health care?" I guess "don't" makes sense if you believe that more than one of them don't deserve health care, but I still think that it sounds odd stylistically.

Posted by wj | February 19, 2008 12:53 PM

Maybe it doesn't sound so odd: "which" can of course indicate a plural subject. But when I first read it I immediately thought of the Sesame Street game: "Which of these kids is not like the others?"

In any case, the woman in the center of the add is clearly a Clinton supporter--steely eyed, grizzled, working class female, probably a smoker--so we won't give her health care. The rest look like Obama supporters, except, perhaps, for the other woman at the far left end of the picture, who I could also imagine supporting Clinton, and who I would consider denying health care for that reason.

Posted by wj | February 19, 2008 1:02 PM

If Hillary loses by 2 points, it's still a loss and the headline is "Obama pulls out close victory in Wisconsin."

Posted by Dan | February 19, 2008 1:02 PM

Hello, Marc, commenters-

Per Marc's post on Wisconsin:

2. Seniors traditionally (key - traditionally) vote at higher rates, and I assume Wisconsinites are pretty used to bad weather... may not be a factor...

3. Madison - the state capital and location of UW - will be the key to an Obama victory statewide, or perhaps more importantly, the location of where he racks up delegates. The state allocates 48 dels proportionally by CD. But the most lucrative CD - the 2nd (Madison-based) - gets 8 dels. Of the remaining eight CDs, five districts receive 6 dels and two others receive only 5 dels...

16 dels are awarded at-large, plus 10 supers (who are pledged).

Same-day registration certainly helps Obama, with the student vote and new voters disproportionalely favoring the fresh face. Plus, the primary is open to indies. With the lack of a competitive contest on the GOP side (McCain gets the lot, winner-take-all), indies flock to Obama... will it be enough?

4. "If Hillary Clinton beats expectations..."

I've been trying to figure out exactly what "expectations", as held by all of us- are. Statewide victory? Keeping it close? Scoring some delegates that she doesn't have to subsequently coax away from Obama? (Per today's news that they are pondering a raid on his pledged delegates, should itbe necessary?)

Obama has gained in the polls, as HRC has already announced plans to not be in Wisconsin tonight (usually a bad sign for the candidate's fortunes and one that generally would have a demoralizing effect on the GOTV effort...)

All the good stuff -
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/WI-D.phtml#0219

Posted by ElectionNightHQ.com (McCain site) Publisher | February 19, 2008 1:03 PM

The weather should aid Obama. His army of youngsters and students probably live closer to polling locations than Hillary's older, poorer crowd. And the rural vote might be wiped out - another disadvantage for HRC.

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by matt | February 19, 2008 1:14 PM

Too bad Hillary didn't make more "No" decisions in the Senate.

This and phony plagiarism charges are the best she can do? Pathetic.

And the ad should say which of these people doesn't want to participate in government run health care?

Posted by Joe | February 19, 2008 1:55 PM

It's amazing how nearly all of Clinton's attacks rely on people not paying very close attention to the details.

Obama "plagiarized"...from his good friend and supporter who didn't mind a whit.
Obama denies people health care...because he doesn't force adults to buy their own health insurance.
Obama voted "present" at times in the Illinois legislature...following a common practice there among legislators who feel a bill still needs more work.

It's possible to campaign and contest without being slimy and dishonest and misleading. Senator Clinton just hasn't found it yet. I'd love nothing more to be proud of both Democratic contenders, but she and her campaign so often act like a bunch of creeps.

Posted by Ban Johnson | February 19, 2008 2:00 PM

I'm pretty anxious to see the results today. All Hillary's negative campaigning has done for me is help me determine never to vote for her in any election and on any ticket. Of course, I'm 61 and have only been a Democrat my whole life. So I'd like to see how sharp the voters in Wisconsin are.

Pathetic is right, but then, that's the Clinton(s)' campaign style.

Posted by Mary | February 19, 2008 2:12 PM

"The Flake rate"

Hey! I resent that! And so does Cousin Jeff in Arizona!

Stop using the word good name Flake pejoratively!

Posted by KathyF | February 19, 2008 2:38 PM

I am a wisconsinite and anecdotally, my polling place in downtown madison near Williamson Street, traditionally a Hippie/Indie/LGBT mecca, was super busy with voters, and an Obama presence outside in that chilly weather cheering people on and handing out "I voted" and "Obama" stickers to passersby.

Though I did get calls from both Obama's and Hillary's campaigns today reminding me to vote, and multiple emails from Obama's campaign (I had initially supported Hillary).

Good times, fingers crossed (I am an Obama supporter).

Posted by N M | February 19, 2008 3:30 PM

Ban Johnson is right. Clinton's attacks rely on distortions, and on the cynical premise that working-class people will not have enough time to pay attention to all the details.

This is why I feel Obama will eventually gather support among blue-collar workers, once the information peters down to them.

Posted by Ni | February 19, 2008 5:13 PM

If you have any reservations about Barack being a better executive, having better morals, principals,and judgement pleas look at Hillary's campaign this last year.

First off she has assured her early donors "additional access" to her as President, admiting this in a march 2007 time magazine but saying she said this in "jest" (although her donors dismiss this).

Than she loses Iowa, running a horrible campaign..shows the same problem managing campaign finances she had in the Senate, and the same problem that led her to be surprised to find out after Super Tuesday the campaign was bankrupt.

After Iowa in New Hampshire several top top people i her campaign, (like in Iowa campaig) resigned, got caught sending mass e-mails accusing Obama of being a Muslim and refusing to pledge allegiance.....she wins, Obama congradulates her victory. All of this is documented.

Than Nevada happens...she assumes she has race locked up until days before Obama gets the endorsement of the biggest labor union at the casinos, who are a big voting block with voting taking place at the casinos. Bill Clinton morning of election was in process of suing the state and democratic party to cancel the elections..went on TV, went to the press saying this was not a fair election, results should not matter.....saying they didn't follow the rules when they followed the rules to a T from the plan 10 months before...hasn't cited any change....than she wins this election after more violations of illegal activity than that were 90% for her campaign, none for Obama very few for others....these violations were ridiculous and clearly coordinated with her campaign.

Than what's next.......South Caroline....they marginalized the black voters, characterizied him as a black candidate.....at beginning of campaign she had more black votes than he did, and she charaterized these people as just voting for him based on race, Bill's efforts were disgusting...and because she doesn't want to go negative she finds Black endorsers of hers to stand next to her and make baseless and immoral attacks that she smiles and claps afterwards, admits they were wrong but waits a day to apologize to see how the press plays it out, see if they buy into it..

After SC....we go to Michigan and Florida...before SC she agreed she would let lay Michigan and Florida and not press for results to count...Obama, Edwards and everyone else followed what the DNC wanted and removed their ames...she didn.t ....she has said explicitly she wants Mich election results to stand even though she was only one on ballot and still struggled to get 50% of the vote...Florida she promised not to campaign there and she was the only campaign that had surrogates campaigning for her...Obama, Edwards, Kucinish followed the rules...promised she wouldn't callit a victory...did...promised wouldn't visit state...did..

Super Tuesday rolls around....she went on national tv and lied to the american people saying she won the most delegates, but refusing to produce this match.....every single group that did the count had him up by 32...there is no way it could have shifted...her math had her up by 1 delegate, but at same time she definitively said she won, something you can't say with an estimated win of 1 delegate and enough votes not counted to push it guaranteed a few delegates either way.....she lied to the press..

She ignored states after Super Tuesday.

Now she has said explicitly that if trends follow, Obama wins 60% of vote, 60% of delegates she will not accept the peoples vote and cede Obama victory...she will try and get the peoples vote reversed with a sweep of the governors, senators and congressman that make up super delegates and have 20% of the vote....If this happens she will guaranteed LOSE the election, and destroy the democratic party.

There is a reason why she gets bad press....she is a liar, manipulative, and morally corrupt.....the media see these....I can guarantee you none of this bad press is coming from Obama's caqmpaign...she has done more to make the press shee her as immoral, corrupt, having poor judgement than anything coming out of Barack obama's campaign has....She doesn't get that when she calls Obama supporters a c ult she won't get their votes in Nov if she gets the nomination.

Pitching Obama supporters as these uneducated people that are easily swayed is funny becaues college educated people support him 3:1...

She gets most of her base from women that somehow feel as a woman she is an advocate for them....They if polled will admit they don't realize that Hillary is the worst rated Dem candidate between Obama/Hillary/Edwards/Kucinish by planned parenthood....she is only one who has loosed her stance on pro choice which she did being arrogant thinking she won the democratic nomination.

The Latinos that support her 2:1 if polled don't realiesz she has repeatedly said in debates, in interviews, on her site that she advocated "any immigrant that is hear illegally that has committed a crime will be automatically deported without the chance of a trial or legal recourse." As someone who is 100% against amnesty and is not pro immigration, I can see that this position is unconstituional and will result in tens of thousand of peopke forced out of here that were wrongly put on that list, or wouldn't be if put in a trial. She is against them having drivers licesnese where if they are caught without a license than they have committed a crime and will be automatically deported without a trial..Obama was able to articulate the argument that these people aren't here to drive, but are here to work and focus should be on penalizing employers....she wasn't....that is why she got backlash in NY pushing Obama's view to give them drivers licenses, but Obama wasn't because he was able to communicate it....she can't do this....people don't trust her...she has lied so many times.

The blue collar supporters of hers, making under $50,000 don't realize that at Wal-Mart as a corporaqte lawyer she worked to squash the unions...they don't realize that she has taken more money from these corporations she says she will fight than anyone.....they don't realize that she did vote for the war in iraq, no child left behind, patriot act, bush given benefit of doubt on iran....give me a break...this woman showed no courage..

In the debate she made up all these reasons why based on info she had she supported war in iraq, voted for that...Obama didn't have all this info...,he didn't have a spouse like she did that has same security clearance as bush, gets all these security documents...he was able to figure it out....and took a stand, willing to jeopardize his career.....she bses about how she was first to give senate a bill for a timeline to get out of Iraq but month before she was asking for a doubling of US troops there.

If she wants to talk about naivety of supporters, what about bulk of her supporters that see this as Bill Clinton's 3rd term, and don't realize that she not he will have to lead these meetings, meet with world leaders and make decisions, will have to be able to go on tv and sell american people on difficult policies to build a mandate...watch the campaign so far....she became a huge target with Bill as her surrogate, speaking for her, it makes her look worse and weaker, our country worse and weaker.....we already saw how it did't work to have a president who can't make a decision is followed around by his advisors.

Lets look at major issues democrats want now

1) Transparency in government...Hillary's current campaign head admittted in grand jury testimony she had illegally broken into the office of Vince Foster the day after he committed suicide to steal files for Hillary.....read the transcripts....secret service agents testifeid she was in there the moring he ommitted suicide...Hillary has ducked answering more questions in these debates than any candidate dem or rep......she hads sais "I don't remember" to a grand jusry 60 times........she refuses to go into detail in her own policies lke healthcare on how she will "force " peopel to buy it..she also won't disclose family tax return to see were 5M$ came from she put in campaign.

2) Lessenign lobbyist influnce - give me a break...this woman took more money from lobbyists than any candidate dem. or republican...has admitted promising early donors additional access to her in white house.....She has been in more lobbying scandals than any presidential nominee...all of her campaign and fundraising heads in senate were indicted in the biggest campaign finance fraud in senate history with Peter Paul.....She hid documents of Clintons business dealings...she had the magical stock fund she managed that went from $1,000 to $100,000 in a few months with 455 consecutive successful stock transactions she made, someone with no stock exeprience....she had donors commit suicide than steal files from their office...she had rented out lincoln bedroom to donors....she is current in federal court with fundraising issues...

3) Healthcare...she has taken more money from HMO's than any other senator...1M$...That is why she is not pushing as Barack will the #1 goal of lowering the overall cost....because her backers don't want that...they just want to cover the 10% extra people and everyone else at inflated rates....she has not pointed out how much HMO fees have inflated last 5 years like Obama has....also she failed in 1993 because she was arrogant about it, was self rigthgoues, completely unwavering, wouldn't meet with HMO's or any one else in writing it....this lost the democrats the house/senate after 42 years....showed clinton's arrogance.

4) War in Iraq...all these leaders she will have to meet with in surrounding countries are smart enough to realize she voted for it, so are the people..she should come out and admit it like Edwards did what she voted for.....She tried to pass a bill to double troops....Obama between his judgement and people trusting him when listenign can sell american people she can't.

I really hope Hillary at her fuure campaign stops is willing to go out and remin these people that whether they vote or her or not, she will try and reverse the people's vote....I hope she will remind them in Texas that she discounted Obama's wins in other red states saying they should not be factored into who is a better candidate.......Please tell these people you don't care how they vote...please continue to insult their intellignece like you did in other states......continue to place people in the audience at your speeces to ask set questions, continue to refuse to do interviews with reporters, play all these games..

This woman is divide and conquer...if she wins omination and presidency she will have 51% of people voting her, sold on things she can't deliver and will soon recede support and 49% of people hating her.....how could she possible get anything done..

And the idea of this "team" of her and Hillary...Bill Clinton went on 60 minutes AFTER it was clear there were no WMD's in Iraq and said if he were president he would invade, but would have waited a few months......this is the team....Clinton was not outspoken about war around vote time.....Obama was smarter than Bill Clinton about that.

And Now bill goes on 60 minutes and tries to clean up his wife's shaky senate record saying he told her to vote for no child left behind so we can "fix it later" despite her not wanting to vote for it...now she is tryig to repeal law..if way of fixing it is to repeal it why vote for it? Bill, stop lying for your wife. Than Obama's ethics bill in senate which was toughest ever, she votes against it....give me a break.

If Hillary is such a coureagoues person she should have taken a stand on Iraq much earlier, on Patriot Act, on No Child Left Behind, on the Bush Iran deal....instead of just trying to stay out of controversey wth the sole purpose of not reminding people how divisive she is, how much atarget she is for republicans, how much she can not sell a policy to the american people (she didn't in 1993 with her health care bill)....and Bill Clinton her husband....he wasn't courageous anti-Iraq like Obama has been.

If Hillary wants credit for experience tell her to

1) Let white house records be released showing what you did for 8 years.
2) Respond to your senate record.
3) Allow financial records of family last 8 years to be released like other candidates.
4) Give a truthful response on no child left behind, iran, iraq votes.

This woman was married to pres of us 8 years, worked in west wing, worked in senate for 8 years, and still her own supporters would peel off very quick if she didn't have bill clinton campaigning wth her, helping her run white house, helping her run campaign...if she left him, or he passed away with his heart problems she would have no support.

Now he is going on tv saying people not voting for her are sexist....give me a break....Look at the women Bill has exploited and Hillary has helped sweat it under the rug, prevent these women from having voices, going in front of a jury.....and she stays with this guy because of political aspirations....give me a break.

Posted by dave | February 19, 2008 5:26 PM

Man Dave... that was hands down the most thorough and concise explanation of what's wrong with Hillary. Right on target. How in the world does this woman expect to run a country in turmoil when she can't even run her own campaign well... and this is with the automatic advantage of name recognition, lots of money, and a powerful political machine in place. Obama had none of those advantages, and look what he has done. Amazing. Give me a good ole community organizer over a Washington insider any day.

Marco

Posted by Marco | February 19, 2008 6:11 PM