Where The Republican Race Is Now

John McCain is well on his way to the nomination.

But McCain continues to have problems with conservatives, even in his own state of Arizona. His performance in most of the states Tuesday night among self-identified conservatives was abysmal. But he won among mainstream/centrist and liberal Republicans, and the share of the conservative vote in the larger states wasn’t large enough. Is it shrinking?

Where will conservatives turn in a Huckabee v. McCain race? Both have, if you listen to talk radio, disqualifying qualities.

Arguably, they distrust McCain and think Huckabee is wrong on the issues.

Romney faces an enormous challenge. Conservatives heard him – they did not listen to him. There is no reason why, right now, they’ll start to listen to him. If Romney stays in… he will try to game the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington this Thursday and use this as a pretext to stay in. If he stays in, he could win Texas… but…

Huckabee’s challenge is clear: he will not win the Republican race if he does not broaden his appeal. McCain can win the Republican race without broadening his appeal.

Attributes seem to matter more than issues in the Republican Party. A lot of Republicans seem to be more comfortable with McCain because they know where he stands .…a lot of Republicans like Romney…. And a lot of Republicans are suspicious of Romney’s motives. Romney’s lead among economic conservatives is not as big as McCain’s lead among national security conservatives; neither’s lead are as big as Huckabee’s lead among values voters.

In one way, McCain can thank Rudy Giuliani for his eventual nomination. Giuliani was strong enough as a person to drop out and endorse, therefore not splitting moderates and independents. McCain’s biggest win is New Jersey, and his wins in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut are larger than his margin in Arizona. Giuliani’s votes in California and Illinois also helped McCain

Comments

The calendar from here on is so slanted towards McCain that the only scenarios are: McCain coasts to victory, or something unexpected happens and we have a whirlwind to the convention.
In a general, Romney could actually try and win some support from non-conservative-base people (if he is smart enough to recall his Ma. record)
The only thing that really scares me is Huckabee a heartbeat from the presidency. Yet a lot of guys are saying that McCain, who is 71, should pick him as veep. I'd rather have Dan Quayle.

Posted by Obamafan89 | February 6, 2008 9:13 AM

The only way for someone other than McCain to win at this point is to have a brokered convention.

Do the republicans want this ? I'm guessing mostly no.

Posted by jb | February 6, 2008 9:42 AM

Huckabee gives strength to many who view McCain as weak from a conservative viewpoint. Personally I'd rather see Huckabee as President than either McCain or Romney. Not an evangelical view... just straight up candor, leadership and experience. Like many of Huckabee's supporters, religion isn't the issue. Trust and shared values are central. Regards-

Posted by Mike | February 6, 2008 10:21 AM

The only thing I can say is that the Majority of the American people need to wake up and stop being sheep.
Those individuals not voting for Dr. Paul need to research and discover that All of the Democratic and Republican’s Presidential runners with the exception OF Dr. Paul had and will allow the continuation of our Be loving Constitution to be handle as if it is JUST a piece of Paper as if it is not the HIGHER LAW OF THE LAND.

Dr. Paul Message is well and alive, changes we need and changes will occur in the coming years, 2,4,6,8 where finally those individuals in Congress which are allowing the Constitution to be chipped will be put to pasture and the new youth who cares for the Constitution will take over and restore OUR REPUBLIC TO ORDER where the Constitution is preserve, Protected, and defended against all enemies, foreign and domestic.

VIVA LA CONSTITUTION OF THE UNITED STATE OF AMERICA!!!
VIA DR. PAUL AND HIS MESSAGE!!

Posted by Roger | February 6, 2008 10:40 AM

McCain won 9 states, Romney won 7 states, Huckabee won 5 states, if you count West Virginia. Does that sound like there's a clear front runner? Every state Romney won he won by double digits, while 3 of McCain's wins were close. Aside from Arkansas, none of Huckabee's wins were by double digits.

So, why would Mitt go on? Aside from the fact that McCain only has about half of the delegates that he needs for the nomination, it could be that Mitt has the resources to go on, and he has reason to hope that he can still win the nomination. Why? He was ahead in Texas in the last poll there, which is winner-take-all and 140 delegates. That's pretty good incentive. There are caucus states coming up, and Mitt has won every caucus state this year except Iowa. Also, and I'm just guessing here, he probably doesn't like McCain. Those of us who have followed McCain's career closely for the last couple of decaades have come to loathe and despise him. Mitt has had a crash course....he didn't need that long.

Posted by Dave | February 6, 2008 10:42 AM

"McCain won 9 states, Romney won 7 states, Huckabee won 5 states, if you count West Virginia. Does that sound like there's a clear front runner?"

When those 9 states are almost invariably the largest, and when he's been vastly outspent in several of them, yes.

"So, why would Mitt go on? Aside from the fact that McCain only has about half of the delegates that he needs for the nomination, it could be that Mitt has the resources to go on, and he has reason to hope that he can still win the nomination."

Mitt needs something like two-thirds of the remaining delegates to win. You'd have to resurrect Abraham Lincoln to win that many even if this were a tight race. From behind, it's simply implausible.

Posted by Punditish | February 6, 2008 12:42 PM

It is not impossible. McCain is a puppet of big business. Romney has not connected with the anxiety of the middle and working class with the exception of Michigan. It is not enough to say he will fix the economy. Romney is right on the illegal immigration issue. He needs to prove to social conservatives he will take their side against big business. He has his own money. He does not need to kowtow to big business.

Posted by Stan | February 6, 2008 1:14 PM

Huckabee would be a terrible VP because he is a class warfare and religious bigot. Jay Nordlinger said it perfectly:

"I don’t intend to comment much about presidential politics in today’s column, but let me say this: I find the ganging up on Romney a little unseemly. I mean, not the fact of it, because this is politics, and we’re all grownups (allegedly). I’m talking about the manner and tone. There seems to be some envy about — to go with some other ugly qualities.

I know that a lot of people — anti-Romneyites — are fired up by that line of Huckabee’s: “People are looking for a presidential candidate who reminds them more of the guy they work with rather than the guy that laid them off.” Apparently, he was alluding to Romney. And I find Huckabee’s one of the most depressing lines I have heard in ages — depressing from every point of view.

First, grammatical: They say Bush can’t talk? I thought Huckabee was supposed to be silver-tongued.

Second, philosophical, or political, if you like: Huckabee expressed low populism, or “sheer demagoguery,” as Ronald Reagan used to say. Huckabee’s line could have come out of the mouth of John Edwards, or John Sweeney, or David Bonior. Is this what we want in the Republican party now? Why not have just one big Democratic party?

And third — oh, call it moral: It seems we’re now campaigning on the basis of what the other guy looks like. What do we say about how Huckabee looks? Frankly, I think I would have liked him better when he was fat — he might have been humbler.

Posted by sheryl | February 6, 2008 1:24 PM

Hello, Marc, commenters-

Looking at this situation, as dispassionately as possible:

On Marc's points-

Rudy's departure undoubtedly helped to fuel McCain's victories. He left the vacuum in the Northeast, permitting McCain to scoop up a ton of delegates and to do so with a minimal investment of time and money.

On the question of where conservatives will turn in a McCain/Huck battle-

The problem facing Huck, I believe, is that nearly every state that would be sufficiently receptive to his message and candidacy (i.e., in the South and border states) has already voted. The only ones left are Texas, Mississippi, and North Carolina, by my count.

I agree that Mitt does in fact face an enormous challenge. It seems difficult to imagine that he's going to win Texas, given that it's an open primary. Of course, he has the money to stay in the campaign indefinitely...

Posted by ElectionNightHQ.com (McCain site) Publisher | February 6, 2008 3:19 PM

Follow-up to the point - two other things-

1) Parts of Virginia, Ohio and Indiana would also be receptive to Huck, but I doubt that he could win them against McCain, statewide. McCain's message is going to play very well in Northern Virginia, and independents as well as Dems can vote there.

2) I think that Marc had a good insight by noting that paradoxically, McCain performed "abysmally" among self-IDed conservatives - but it still didn't prevent him from winning every big state up for grabs by huge margins (including closed primaries in NY, NJ, California and the open one in Illinois.) It also didn't prevent him from taking Missouri, Oklahoma, and his own Arizona, all of which are red states. Either the conservative vote is shrinking-

or he's doing sufficiently well among conservatives, that racking enough a huge margin among non-conservatives is enough to win many primaries.

Posted by ElectionNightHQ.com (McCain site) Publisher | February 6, 2008 3:26 PM

I just have two words - Go Huckabee!

Posted by chris | February 6, 2008 4:02 PM

I would say that any "Go Huckabee" cheerleaders will have to reconcile his candidacy with the portions of the US that do not want the Constitution to undergoe major changes to more faithfully reflect the values and commands of the Bible.

And while he claims that the evangelicals of the South love him and he would be welcomed by them on the ticket, he is talking about States that always accept the Republican candidate as long as they do not diss the South and are not running against a Southern candidate. At the same time, Huckabee and his followers ran a sly campaign of religious bigotry against the Mormons, much as they would have if a Jew had been running on the Republican side. So The Pastor, if he was running as the Nominee or as VP, would set up some big problems with Mormon heavy states out West that are now the Reddest of States. And several large Jewish donors to the Republicans see Romney's reception down South byv the Huckabee evangelicals as a barometer for how a Jew would be treated..

Posted by chris ford | February 6, 2008 6:11 PM

I think you're overselling the Rudy effect here Marc. He pumped everything into FL and McCain still won handily. With his numbers consistently neck-and-neck with Ron Paul, he wouldn't have been much of a factor on Tuesday.

Oh, and Roger, his supporters calling people sheep and trolling posts they don't bother to read might be why nobody likes Ron Paul.

Posted by Justin K. | February 6, 2008 9:38 PM

To C. Ford: Are you serious? Constitution changes, religious bigotry? Think you need to step back from the kool-aid a little and do some more research. Many of us believe Mr. Huckabee is perhaps the best hope for the GOP, if not the nation. Not from any sense of religious fervor, but rather his leadership and the ability to understand and communicate with real people. Oh, and the knowledge that his convictions are not measured by convenience or transient opportunity.

Posted by Steve | February 6, 2008 11:22 PM

It is amazing to me to see presumed conservatives fighting over just pedantics. What the hell are family values anyway????? Maybe we conservatives should purge and I mean purge the neo-cons from public life. Does anyone think the actions proposed by the American Enterprise Institute , The Project for the New American Century and promulgated by the duplicitious Bush Administration have not crippled our country?? Instead we conservatives ring our hands about "family voters" and run a tired old horse like "100 year" Mccain. I just pray Ron Paul will change his mind and run as an Independent.

Posted by kent r corral md | February 7, 2008 1:09 PM