Info from our trusty pals at CBS News: this electorate is very white; only four in ten have a "college degree." They're "less affluent" than Dems in other states. The percentage of late deciders is declining: only 27% made up their minds within the last seven days.
-- Issue number one is, of course, the economy, followed by health care... adding the economy and health care brings you to nearly 70% of the electorate.
-- Change trumps experience, 52 to 24.
-- Very few first time voters -- only 17%.
-- 27% of the electorate were independent
-- Clinton was seen as the most unfair attacker;
-- Obama (55%) was seen as the candidate most like to improve relations with the res tof the world.
-- Clinton and Obama are seen as equally qualified to be commander in chief (50% and 48%), while Obama draws 60% or more on the questions of who best can unite the country and beat the Republicans.
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Wisconsin Exit Polls: A Less Affluent, Less Well-Educated, Economically Sensitive Electorate
19 Feb 2008 05:30 pm
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Comments (48)
I have no idea which way these tea leaves point. Some of this stuff is favorable to Obama (high percentage of independent voters, most likely to improve relations), some is very favorable to Clinton (not as many affluent/educated voters). With as close as the Wisconsin polls have been and with Clinton's surge in Gallup's daily tracking, it's hard to get a real read on how this one will go and the exit poll isn't clarifying a lot.
I read that MSNBC is saying 59% of the voters earn more than $50K
That last question is utterly critical. How many people vote [i]against[/i] the person that is best able to unite and beat the Republicans. Looks like Obama wins the electability argument soundly.
I think I will be close, but based on this number I think Obama wins it.
Exit polls also saw a President kerry and an Obama NH win: I don't trust the polls, lol.
This sounds like it will be close. Plus with all that "plagarism" stuff out there and video it seems from the gallup tracking poll the attacks connected and worked against Obama.
My recollection of exit polls from New Hampshire was that they weren't terribly conclusive.
If change trumps experience 52 to 24, Obama must be way up. At this point, a question like this is practically code for "who are you going to vote for?". What percentage of Obama supports answer "experience"? What percentage of Clinton supporters answer "change"? Even if we conservatively place these at 0 and 33 percent respectively, we still have Obama coming out ahead (among folks who answer this question) 40 to 36.
Let's compare to Missouri:
% indie: MO 22, WI 27
college graduate: MO 33, WI 40
Change/experience: MO 55/20, WI 52/24
All in all, it's looking very similar to Missouri. But I think the overall favorability spread has tilted a bit further towards Obama, and he's campaigned harder. So I'll say Obama by four or five.
The exit polls show Obama winning women, union households and low income earners all by 51-49.
But as we know, he has his own solid base outside of that. So he HAS encroached on her base quite a bit !
But of course they are exit polls only.
The demographics look to favor Clinton, but the actual preferences favor Obama. Either there's a Bradley effect going on or Obama's made some huge inroads into Clinton's base. Looks like this primary is going to be even more important than I thought.
In VA, change trumped experience 57-21. Obama won "can bring change" 5-1, HRC won "experience" 15-1, Obama won the other two (cares about people like me and electability) 2-1 and 5-2, respectively. So with 52-24, my math says:
Obama 52 * 5/6 + 21 * 1/16 + 24 * 7/10 = 61.5%. Assuming the breakdowns are the same as Virginia, of course ...
There was an exit poll Clinton is leading Obama 49/45. Is this more trust worthy?
Since polls close at 9:00, isn't it early to be counting exit polls?
Georgee, what exit poll shows Clinton leading?
Yeah, I've seen a couple Clinton supporters reference this 49-45 poll, anyone got a link?
Voter turnout is lower than expected as of 3:00PM. The weather is being blamed for it. When I voted at 8:30 AM the temp was 1 degree in the southern part of the state. The roads and sidewalks are very icy. This is having a navigate effect on the elder voters.
27% of the Democratic voters are Independent with 9% of the voters being Republicans. I wonder who they are voting for?
I just hope Wisconsin is the start to turn this Obama craze around.
Who is surprised by recent revelations that Hillary plans to steal Obama's pledged delegates?! Come on, People!
By now we know the Clintons are capable of ANYTHING, whether legal or ethical or not, to get power. There is NOTHING NEW here, is there!?!
Enough of Washington politics as usual. The politics of personal destruction, as perfected by the Clinton Dynasty over the years, has gone far enough!
So, turn the focus where it should be: have Bill and Hill immediately release their incriminating tax returns and have them immediately release their secret White House papers (which they are pretending they can’t release now!) so that we all can judge for ourselves whether Hillary really had any experience in the White House besides parties with dignitaries and her miserably failed Hillary-Care-Gate.
"27% of the Democratic voters are Independent with 9% of the voters being Republicans. I wonder who they are voting for?"
Wild guess: Obama. And the margin? 2-1. Just a guess.
"Very few" first-time voters? 17 percent? Isn't that, actually, very high?
I do not get the Clinton's ditching the Badger State and pulling a Rudy and pulling back to restart in
Texas and Ohio?!? Obama will do very well in Texas and if he closes he gap in Ohio, wins in Vermont the same night, Clinton will have dug a deeper hole and not gained at all. Her going negative again the last three days just shows she is desperate not different. Going 0-10 in February will not make her look good any way you slice it.
If the independents are actually making up 27% of the vote and if Obama is winning the electability argument (60%) then this promises to be at least a 10 point victory.
The other exit polls on rightpundits.com were extremely non-specific and that could have just been the third wave that had Hillary up by four.
Who knows?
Here on the ground in Wisconsin, a couple of thoughts: Daytime exit polls often are off here, undercounting working-class folks just getting to polls now, parents taking turns at the polls while one stays home with the kids, etc.
Yes, it is cold today and still icy from the monster storm -- but it's not snowing and it was (it's dark now) sunny. After the storm, the cabin fever, people like to get out . . . if they can, of course. The icy roads and walks are awful for the elderly.
And turnout is very good in many areas of Milwaukee, where there are local races as well. Polls are calling for extra ballots. And we vote more here than in many states, so we planned for a 35% turnout, which is higher than in most statesso far this season.
Just some thoughts from the closest state in the 2004 election. Enjoy.
The Wisconsin poll with Hillary at 49% over Obama 43% was done by American Research Group (http://americanresearchgroup.com/) on 2/15-2/16. They updated the poll for 2/17-2/18 and it showed Obama at 52% and Clinton at 42%.
How quickly we forget the love affair with George! Just think of where this nation could be if quit asking for "change at all cost" and begin to look for substance.
In the end, I think Obama makes moving speeches while saying "nothing". I also know that Clinton has shown that she will make the hard changes.
Let's see if America deserves Hillary. Go USA!
p.s. to Portland John: Clinton cannot go 0-10 in February. She even won a state in the last week -- New Mexico. Or did you miss that? Not surprising, as it got no media coverage.
The Wisconsin poll with Hillary at 49% over Obama 43% was done by American Research Group (http://americanresearchgroup.com/) on 2/15-2/16. They updated the poll for 2/17-2/18 and it showed Obama at 52% and Clinton at 42%.
17% for first time voters is very high. In Maryland, the number was 5%.
Clinton cannot go 0-10 in February. She even won a state in the last week -- New Mexico. Or did you miss that? Not surprising, as it got no media coverage.
That it took them over a week to count and recount New Mexico does not change the fact that it was a Super Tuesday state and thus obviously does not factor in when people are looking at post-Super Tuesday voting. Sheesh.
The Wisconsin poll with Hillary at 49% over Obama 43% was done by American Research Group (http://americanresearchgroup.com/) on 2/15-2/16. They updated the poll for 2/17-2/18 and it showed Obama at 52% and Clinton at 42%.
I am pulling for Obama!
I am pulling for Obama!
Sorry for the duplicate posts. Having trouble with the site.
With women at 57 percent of democrat voters in Wisconsin this might be real close. She may even squeak out a win. The issue of NAFTA and her more aggressive attack ads may help barack. In addition the bad weather might deter some of her older base from getting to the polls.
Barack by 4
I don't see how these numbers point to an Obama victory. It's a blue collar state and women far outnumber men. The low number of first time voters indicates young people aren't coming out to vote. All bad things.
Women outnumber men, 57-43, but CBS has Obama winning women 51-49, and winning men 61-35. That adds up to a big Obama victory.
Women outnumber men, 57-43, but CBS has Obama winning women 51-49, and winning men 61-35. That adds up to a big Obama victory.
CBS has pulled their exit poll information.
Interesting...
Why is everyone so impressed with the substance of a Hillary speech? Do they really think it relates to what she will do in office? We know how great Bill Clinton's health care ideas were and he was elected on the premise that he would realize these.
In the end, he accomplished nothing saying "Sorry, not my fault. Congress shot it down." I didnt hear Hillary crying then "how can politicians sleep at night knowing 50 million of us dont have health insurance" as she cried three weeks ago.
We have plenty of proof that Hillary's, as well as the others "experience" is really experience at pulling the wool peoples eyes. Thats what "experience" in politics means. Baracks the best bet.
I have read Milwaukee Journal online newspaper Blog. I am very concerned about a posting that stated students at Madison campus have a history of registering and voting at all 3 or 4 voting locations. This poster feels Obama will win due to this illegal voting practice. If this is true the DNC must investigate the Madison campus and any other campus registration practices to assure a legal result. I have also read on blogs that in WA and other caucus states the Obama campaign bused in voters from Illinios due to lack of checking ID's in Caucuses.
Busing to WA from IL and college kid fraud stuff is totally fabricated by the Hillary campaign. I worked at polls as a challenger and its all about IDENTIFICATION and check lists from prior elections. Dont believe all the conspiracy theories as they are for they gullible.
Hillary Clinton's fatal flaw in the 2008 primaries seems to have been this whole ethnicity thing, i.e., pandering to voters by race, gender, etc. While these are valid political considerations to be sure, the science of exclusion to which the Clintons attach their methodology, in my way of thinking, goes beyond Eugenics. What about actual public affairs? Talk about sexism ... I read the slogan on a Starbucks coffee cup: There is a special place in hell for women who refuse to help other women. The quote was from Madam Albright. Had the message been for purposes other than electing Hillary, and from some source other than that gorgon, Albright, perhaps yes. But I know where Mrs. Clinton stands, and just saying no to her is a civic duty. Bravo Wisconsin – bravo! Again, I’ll be happy when I see this link advertised on every Starbucks cup: http://theseedsof9-11.com
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Is in 4 in 10 having a college degree actually low?
Is 17% first time voters low?
What are we to compare these figures to?
Posted by John | February 19, 2008 5:50 PM