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Early Views From The Clinton/Obama Campaigns

04 Mar 2008 05:35 pm

Note: NONE of this information comes in any way from my own knowledge of embargoed exit polls. All references to the exit polls come from the campaigns themselves.

The Obama campaign expects to net seven or eight delegates out of the night from winning Vermont… they expect, delegate-wise, RI and Ohio will tie, and Texas, because of the caucus, will be a wash.

The Clinton campaign, having recieved leaked exit polls showing slim leads in both Texas and Ohio, is already challenging, in the press, the aggressiveness of Obama’s caucus operation but is generally happy with early reports that turnout in Texas is high.

In preparation for tonight’s precinct conventions, the Clinton campaign has worked with the Obama campaign and the Texas Democratic Party over the past few weeks to ensure that there was clarity of the rules and that every voter has a chance to participate in the process on an even playing field.

Unfortunately, we have received numerous reports that the Obama campaign is violating Texas Democratic Party rules by circulating precinct convention sign in sheets in advance and are having them filled in now. These underhanded tactics undermine the process that all parties agreed to.

Comments (46)

Ugh, Hillary's camp just doesn't know how to quit when they are ahead.

HUGE HUGE NEWS

EARLY EXITS FROM AN INSIDE SOURCE:

OH: 51 Clinton, 49 Obama
TX: 54 Obama, 51 Clinton

Hillary looks to be toast

Wouldn't exit polls exclude early voters, which seem to be more for Obama in TX and for Clinton in Ohio.

The news about independents should be helpful for Obama.

via http://thepage.time.com/preliminary-exit-poll-results/
From the Associated Press:

–Self-described independents were about one in five voters in Ohio’s Democratic primary, one in four in Texas, a third in Rhode Island and four in 10 in Vermont.

–In the GOP race in Ohio, independents were about one in seven voters, in Texas one in five.

Um, so 105% of people voted in TX? Nice math there

Ken,

Your TX numbers total more than 100%, with majorities for both candidates.

What do you have?

Gosh, Ken certainly is committed to his crazy numbers; he's posted them on every comment page he can find. And yet, when questioned on why his numbers add up to 105%, he turns out to be less responsive than Ambinder himself.

Curious.

Ah, it wouldn't be an election day without Marc finding some way to say, "Neener neener! I have exit polls and I'm not telling!"

But what's this? RI and Ohio are going to cancel out? Texas will be a wash because of the caucus? That makes it sound like Ohio is going to be a close race and Texas is going to be a Hillary blowout.

EARLY EXITS FROM INSIDE SOURCE:

OH: 56 Clinton, 42 Obama

TX: 54 Clinton, 45 Obama

Obama winning Texas 54-51 would be REALLY HUGE NEWS.
Particularly because the vote total would add up to 106%.

The concept of a priori truth is also toast. 54 + 51 = 100! Amazing.

The exits are meaningless in TX anyways because half the electorate voted before election day.

Tune in at 1 am ET tonight if you want to know what really happened. There's going to be a lot of misinformation before that.

Why anyone plays any attention to early exit polls in reasonably close races is beyond me.

Ken 54% + 51% = 105% WOW! I really believe the info now.

Wouldn't early exits underestimate people planning on going late to be able to vote and caucus with one trip to the polling station. It seems to me that a lot of Obama voters might be waiting until 5 or 6 PM local time to vote so they can just caucus right after.

EARLY EXITS FROM INSIDE SOURCE:

OH: 50 Clinton, 48 Obama

TX: 52 Obama, 45 Clinton

this from the Clinton campaign who issued a Caucus manual in Texas telling Hillary supporters to control the process - and overtake the precinct captains?

are they kidding?

http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/03/02/clintons-texas-caucus-strategy-revealed

is anyone else SICK of the spinning?

RKA:

My mom lives in Midland and the Obama campaign pushed folks to vote early so that it would be easier to caucus tonight.

Looks like the Inside Source is telling folks what they want to hear.

Seriously, notice that the Obama campaign is TOTALLY focused on delegates. They are going to start beating that drum until it sinks in. It's not about percentages tonight, it's about pledged delegates.


Grist for the mill:

Sent: Tue Mar 04 17:18:14 2008 Subject:
Exits 1 and 2 wave RI -- 49/49 OH -- 49/51
TX -- 51/49
First numbers are HRC


TEXAS
CBS News – HRC up 2 or 3 in TX

Fox News - Make up in the electorate is 31% Hispanic (2 to 1 for HRC); 19% African American (82% for Obama). Change is only polling 43% in Texas .

OHIO

Fox News – [O] Down about 2 to 3 in Ohio .

CBS News – [O] Say up about 2 to 3.


BOTH cautioned that the numbers are too close to be reliable.


Fox News – It’s close. Suggestion that he’s doing okay with White woman, maybe as much as 60%. Economy is the most important issue, say 61% Democrats. African Americans… Obama is winning 90%. Change is most important in Ohio .

LATE ENTRANCE FROM OUTSIDE SOURCE:

HO: Obama 84, Clinton 05
XT: Clinton 54, Obama 25

mark, the sign in sheet stuff has been debunked by the fort worth star telegram:
http://startelegram.typepad.com/politex/2008/03/sign-in-sheet-f.html

And once again, the press, evidently feeling guilty over its negative coverage of a candidate who has lost 11 consecutive contests by double-digit margins and whose campaign appeared hellbent on making her look like a complete fool, has decided to air Clinton's argument virtually verbatim as its own.

Hey, when you guys are done putting headlines on Clinton's press releases, could you ask her why she hasn't released her taxes yet? I mean, if it's not too much trouble or anything.

REDACTED EXIT RESULTS FROM INSIDE SOURCE (MY IMAGINATION):

OH: 99 Obama, 1 Clinton

TX: 99 Obama, 1 Clinton

Thank you Dan, for making my point. :)

va cynic, well executed. I like the time/date stamp. Very convincing!

RESULTS FROM AN INSIDE SOURCE:

OH: Clinton 20, Obama 20, Ditka 60
TX: Clinton 15, Obama 16, Grassy Knoll 69

Geraghty at National Review has actual exit poll numbers (although two different sets of them).

They show really close races in Rhode Island, Ohio, and Texas, and Obama way ahead in Vermont.

OH: Clinton 12, Obama 8, Rove 80
TX: Clinton 16, Obama 4, Jack Ruby (write-in) 76

ACTUAL INFO

TX: 56 (BO) 44 (HC)
OH: 53 (HC) 47 (BO)

Howard, just to confirm re: our conversation, that I have no formal involvement with the campaign in invalid states like South Carolina, Iowa and Vermont.

Mark Penn

Forgive what may be an obvious question, but are early voters counted in the exit polls?

Attaturk, its called "Early Exits" - in fact they don't include a single voter from today. This is why the numbers you have seen above are so skewed and/or add up to more than 100%.

EARLY EXIT POLLS FROM INSIDER!

Me: Current President
Bush: Current BAC .12

Please note these are early results and may change throughout the night!

My father has given me this information. The scoop out of his firm in Austin is thus

BO: 50
HC: 49

Obviously this is not counting caucus predicitons in which Obama does well.

After caucus Obama should come out victorious.

My father has given me this information. The scoop out of his firm in Austin is thus

BO: 50
HC: 49

Obviously this is not counting caucus predicitons in which Obama does well.

After caucus Obama should come out victorious.

OBAMA WINS VERMONT!!!

CHALK ONE UP FOR THE GOOD GUYS!!!

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