McCain's Two General Election Targets

(What happened to New Mexico? Click here.)

Republicans tasked by John McCain's presidential campaign with planning for his general election strategy have settled on two states John Kerry won in 2004 as their prime turnover targets for 2008.

They are Pennsylvania, which has 21 electoral votes and New Hampshire, which has 4.

The targeters seem to have Barack Obama in mind as their opponent, but the logic holds even if Hillary Clinton gets the nomination.

None of the three states will be easy to flip. Even though Pennsylvania is arguably the weakest large state in the Democratic electoral coalition, party identification is trending their way. In Philadelphia suburbs like Montgomery County, Republicans still control key county commission seats, but Democrats gain with every election. The economy in Pennsylvania is faring better than in the industrial Midwest, and the war is very unpopular. Watch for McCain to target Northwestern counties won by Sen. Bob Casey -- and Reps. Holden, Murtha and Carney. Watch for the Philly suburbs to be ground zero in any Democratic effort to highlight McCain's pro-life credentials.

Comments

Actually, Kerry lost New Mexico in '04 (Gore won it in '00). Regardless, a definite target for both parties. It should prove to be a particularly interesting state given its location, demographics and open Senate seat.

Posted by Kathryn | March 31, 2008 11:59 AM

He'd better, because he's going to lose Iowa and probably either Virginia or Colorado this time around.

Posted by TH | March 31, 2008 12:06 PM

You Beltway types that think McCain will lose VA to Obama are fools.

Look at the numbers: in 2006 Allen won non-NoVA by 55,000 votes and lost in NoVa by 63,000 votes, resulting in a Webb win by 8,000 votes. So to win Obama must retain the Scott-Irish Highlander votes in the SW corner of the state. You really see them being blind dems? You think NoVA growth can offset those defections. You think the % of military vote that went to Webb will go to Obama over 624787?

PLUS the less educated, less liberal voters come out for the Presidential election and skip the midterms, especially the military voters. Obama will lose VA by at least 6 points.

Posted by McCain Hater | March 31, 2008 12:24 PM

Mark, that would be the Northeastern counties won by Bob Casey. The Northwestern counties are far less populous and the Congressional districts you mention are in the east and northeast.

McCain may have a shot at Pennsylvania in November, but it will be difficult given the assured high vote totals for the Democratic candidate from the City of Philadelphia and its immediate suburbs, as well as southwestern strongholds with far fewer voters.

Posted by Dan | March 31, 2008 1:16 PM

Marc over-interprets the surging Democratic registration in Pennsylvania when he says: "party identification is trending their way. " A lot of this switch in "party identification" is likely due to Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos," and so has the opposite meaning from what Marc assumes. Here's what a book I'm now writing says about "Operation Chaos":

The day after Hillary’s March 4th comeback, winning Ohio and Texas, the online edition of the Koch-funded Reason magazine headlined “It’s Rush Wot Won It,” and David Weigel linked to comments that Rush Limbaugh had made on Fox “News” on February 29th. Weigel concluded, with evident joy, “There’s no way to explain this [win for Hillary] unless you assume some eventual Bush voters were making mischief for the Democrats.” In the February 29th telecast, Laura Ingraham had introduced Rush by saying, “He’s been urging his Republican listeners in Texas and Ohio to vote for Hillary Clinton next week. ... I understand that the Rush Limbaugh audience is mobilizing in Texas for Hillary.” Limbaugh replied: “I am urging people ... We need Barack Obama bloodied up politically.” Limbaugh now told this television audience, “I want Hillary to stay in this, Laura. ... So, yeah, I’m asking people to cross over and, if they can stomach it — I know it’s a difficult thing to do, to vote for a Clinton, but ... I think it’s something we need. It would be fun, too.” He then proceeded to tell his fellow fascists not to feel embarrassed to pass around allegations that Obama was a Muslim, because Hillary and her supporters were the sources of those charges. “All of this stuff — the middle name, the drug dealing, the drug selling, the picture of Obama in the turban, all of this — has come from the Democrats,” he said. This trick apparently worked in the Ohio and Texas primaries. And John McCain won the Republican Presidential nomination on March 4th. So, this tactic by Limbaugh and Fox “News” was henceforth able to be used in the upcoming Democratic primary states. This trick would be the only way left for Republican voters in those states to affect the 2008 primary contests, since the Republican nomination was already settled. These Republicans could just vote for Hillary in the Democratic primaries, so as to help give the Republican nominee John McCain the weakest possible opponent to run against in November.

In the Mississippi primary, on March 11th, Obama won by 61% to 37%, but Hillary won 70% of the White vote. (By now, almost all Blacks were turned off to Hillary’s subtly racist campaign.) The next day, Chris Matthews on MSNBC’s “Hardball” pointed out that a remarkably high 24% of her voters in Mississippi were Republicans. Another anomaly shown in the exit polls was that Obama won lower-income voters, and Hillary won wealthier voters. Republicans tend to be much wealthier than Democrats in Mississippi, and Hillary’s large Republican vote raised the income-level of her average voter in that state. Moreover, a remarkably high percentage of Hillary’s voters described themselves as “conservative.” Rush Limbaugh seems to have contributed substantially to Hillary’s vote totals in Mississippi.

On the day of the Mississippi primary, March 11th, the Boston Globe bannered “Many Voting for Clinton to Boost GOP,” and Scott Helman quoted Republican voters who admitted they were voting for Clinton in primaries because of Rush Limbaugh. The transcript of Limbaugh’s March 19th show was headlined “Rush the Vote: Operation Chaos Meeting and Exceeding Objectives,” and Limbaugh proudly quoted MSNBC’s David Shuster, from the day before, having said, “this month, things changed, and a lot of people are pointing to one man — Rush Limbaugh.” Also on the 19th, blogs.tnr.com headlined “Limbaugh for Hillary” and reported: “it turns out that roughly 119,000 Republicans voted in the Texas primary ... for Hillary. ... Her margin was almost all from voters who cast their ballots for her on instructions from Rush Limbaugh.” A blog at Oprah — who was a passionate supporter of Obama — headlined on March 20th “Rush Limbaugh and His Operation Chaos.” There were comments such as, “Rush Limbaugh is gloating on the radio these days.” Then, on March 21st, Steve Rosenfeld, at alternet and truthout.org, bannered “Will Rush Limbaugh Be Indicted for Voter Fraud?” Finally, voter fraud was an authentic factor in U.S. elections, as the Republican Party long had alleged; but the perpetrators were actually Republicans, and not Democrats as Republicans had been alleging. This was voter fraud to distort the other party’s primaries, and not voter fraud in the general election. Rosenfeld wrote: “As the Board of Election in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, where Cleveland is located, launches an investigation into illegal crossover voting in the state’s 2008 presidential primary, a big open question remains unanswered: Will county officials go after the ringleaders of apparently illegal electioneering where thousands of Republican voters swore — under penalty of law — allegiance to the Democratic Party in order to vote for Hillary Clinton?” The transcript for Rush’s program on March 24th was headlined “If Rush Gets Indicted for Operation Chaos, Indict Obama, Clinton, Too.” Limbaugh said that, “If I am indicted, Obama’s going down with me,” because Obama had been inviting Republicans to vote for him in Democratic primaries. Of course, there’s nothing illegal about a candidate’s trying to expand his voter-base. Limbaugh was comparing apples and axels. Limbaugh urged his listeners in the next big primary state, Pennsylvania, to switch their party-registration, just so that they could legally vote there for Hillary, and bloody Obama up some more. On March 26th, ABC News bannered “Republican Crossovers Fuel Record Democratic Voter Registration in Pennsylvania,” and Keith Staskiewicz reported that, “The pattern echoes the Republican crossovers in the run-up to the Texas and Ohio primaries, which some political experts attributed to calls from conservatives like Rush Limbaugh for Republicans to register and vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton.” Furthermore, “county voter registration officials in [conservative] central Pennsylvania told ABCNews.com that many new registrants spoke openly about changing their party affiliation to give McCain ‘a better shot in November.’”

Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” was massively successful. Pressure was thus building within the Democratic Party leadership to shut down Hillary’s campaign as soon as possible, so as to retain a chance of winning the Presidency in November, and of electing enough Democratic Senators and Congressmen so that that Democratic President would be able to have a successful Presidency, not be blocked by Republicans.

Although Limbaugh had earlier promised to sit the 2008 Presidential election out if the Republican candidate turned out to be McCain, Limbaugh was actually supporting McCain now to the hilt.

Posted by cettel | March 31, 2008 1:20 PM

Don't let the Congressional representation fool you, there's no way McCain wins the northwestern tip of PA. The Republicans have had that seat since 1982 because of Tom Ridge (who's still almost universally beloved in the area). Erie County has voted Democrat in every national election since 1984. I just don't see it happening in Erie, or anywhere else along the Ohio border (possible exception of Crawford County).

Posted by Tel | March 31, 2008 2:07 PM

Meanwhile, in Obamaville, we're going to see if we can flip the grand motherlode known only by one name: Texas.

If Republicans lose Texas, they lose everywhere. Obama puts it in play.

Posted by Abe | March 31, 2008 10:24 PM