Minority Report: Another Post On The Credentials Committee

So help me, but here is an abbreviated summary of a very, very complex process:

So the Democratic National Convention's credentials committee does not exist in its most basic form -- the 25 Howard Dean appointees -- until June 29.

Before June 29, any appeals from Florida, Michigan, Al Gore, Terry McAuliffe or Bill Nelson would be shunted to the DNC's rules and bylaws committee (RBC).

Any RBC rulings could be appealed to the full credentials committee, which would probably consider the appeal at some point in July.

I've been schooled on the virtue of minority reports. I am not a precog, despite my frequent, albeit heavily qualified projections on this blog, and so I will no longer attempt to predict what will happen to Hillary Clinton's beloved delegates in Florida.

Because 20% of the credentials committee can affix their signatures to a minority resolution, there is a fair chance (that's a qualified conjecture) that the entire Democratic National Convention will get a chance to seat the Florida and Michigan delegation in some capacity. In this scenario, there will be, of course, a majority report that urges against such a seating.

Minority reports are rare, though, and tend to be associated with platform challenges.

Comments

For more information, put "Tanner '88" on your Netflix queue. ;-)

Posted by Nathan | March 7, 2008 3:55 PM

There is lots of discussion about a pro-Clinton minority report to seat the delegates as-is coming out of the credentials committee, but isn't it more likely that a potentially pro-Obama credentials committee would vote to seat the delegates as a 50-50 split, which they wouldn't have to go before the full convention, and therefore settle the issue?

Posted by taricha | March 7, 2008 4:08 PM

Hillary Clinton doesn't care about the Florida Delegates. They get her NOTHING. What she needs is the Michigan delegates. That, with or without Florida, gives her a long shot at victory.

Watch the numbers.

Right now, bottom line is no one can win enough pledged delegates through elections to lock up the nomination. That's been clear since Super Tuesday.

And it's almost inconceivable that a majority of the superdels will go against the popular will.

So, the battle is for pledged delegates.

And, unless you count Michigan--a contest where Obama wasn't on the ballot and voters literally couldn't choose him--it will be Obama who shows up with more popular support.

It's basic math.

With the sanctions in place, Obama has to lose every single upcoming state by more than 20 points for Clinton to catch up in the pledged (ie, won through elections) delegate race. That's simply not going to happen.

So, the question is, what do you do if you want to beat Obama? Aside from hoping he somehow implodes (not likely), Clinton needs to net some delegates that he can't compete for. And the only place for that is Florida and Michigan--really, Michigan.

In Florida, Clinton nets about 42 delegates. But in Michigan she nets a whopping 77--because Obama wasn't on the ballot.

The only way Florida alone brings Clinton anywhere close in pledged delegates at the convention is if Obama loses Pennsylvania by 20 AND loses every other race by 10 or more points (which isn't gong to happen).

So, she desperately needs Michigan and its 77 delegate gain for her. Michigan or, even better, Florida and Michigan are the only way she has a chance at beating Obama in pledged delegates.

Florida's nice, but Michigan is the real prize, because it's the only state where voters literally couldn't vote for Obama.

Of course, it's always helpful to link Florida, a state where Obama couldn't campaign but voters could vote for Obama, with Michigan, a state where literally no one could vote for Obama.

Posted by anonninn | March 7, 2008 4:14 PM

Mother of pearl, can you please stop saying "Ben Nelson" when you mean "Bill Nelson"? Not only does this prove you don't read the comments in your own blog, but it suggests a rather shaky grasp of who's who in Washington. Unless you actually meant that the Nebraska senator, Ben Nelson, might want to protest the non-seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations, instead of the Florida senator, Bill Nelson. If so, why?

Posted by TKD | March 7, 2008 4:28 PM

Make no mistake, if this goes to the convention and the MI and FL delegates represent enough votes to change the outcome, there will be a minority report, and the convention will vote on it. It will essentially be a nomination vote.

The Clinton strategy is to allow the superdelegates to vote for the MI and FL delegations rather than voting for Clinton directly. The hope is that it will provide enough cover to make it look like she is not stealing the nomination. The Clintons have a lot more power among the superdelegates than Obama has, so there's a fair chance that this will work as long as she can get enough public opinion in favor of seating the two delegations.

Posted by some guy | March 7, 2008 4:40 PM