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Obama Can't Win The General?

13 Mar 2008 04:18 pm

They let Mark Penn out to speak and... this happens.

The USA Today link includes two minutes worth of audio, so you can make up your mind about the context.

Of course Obama can win the general election; it's illogical to generalize from the vote totals alone, as I and others have pointed out. Yes, Obama's Gary Hart-Jesse Jackson coalition is untested in modern general elections, but we live in hyperpartisan times, Democrats have an enormous partisan identification identification advantage, and Democrats are much more enthusiastic about their candidate than Republicans are. There's just no way to justify Penn's assertion from reading a poll.

It is worth pointing out that several polls suggest that Obama may lose white working class voters, especially men, to John McCain. That's something to keep an eye on. But it's not a reason to pre-emptively declare that he can't win the general election.

Incidentally, there are several conversations at once.

Penn is talking to reporters and superdelegates.

Clinton and Obama are talking to voters and superdelegates.

Republicans -- those folks who are playing the Jeremiah Wright sermons -- are talking to their activists.

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Comments (20)

Who is Geraldine Ferraro talking to?

Posted by goethean | March 13, 2008 4:30 PM

What Next in Democratic Primaries?
With Barack Obama's win in Mississippi he now leads Hillary Clinton in pledged delegates 1411 to 1250. So the question arises, can Hillary Clinton catch up with Obama if she wins Pennsylvania, Indiana and Puerto Rico? A total of 272 delegates (not counting super delegates) are in play.

Assuming that Hillary Clinton wins all three primaries and delegates are allocated by same margin as in Ohio (Hillary's 75 to Barack's 66), she will gain 144 delegates to Barack's 128. This will bring her total pledged delegates to 1394 compared to Barack's 1539, so she will still be behind by 145 delegates. There still remain other states like North Carolina, where Barack is expected to win with a large margin.

If the democratic Party is seriously interested in taking back the White House, isn't it time for it to put some sense into the Clintons and tell them this is beyond their reach. Intrigue, insult and large state argument will not win her the nomination. It is the number of delegates that counts at the end of the day. McCain is out fund raising and consolidating while Democrats are still fighting it out.

Isn't there anyone in charge of the Democratic Party who can say enough is enough and tell Hillary to fold her tent gracefully?

Posted by Ajaz | March 13, 2008 4:32 PM

Hey, I got a better story than Jeremiah Wright sermons.

I heard, and have proof that Obama drinks human blood, nearly every Sunday.

Blood of Christ, to be exact.

Posted by D | March 13, 2008 4:40 PM

"That's something to keep an eye on. But it's not a reason to pre-emptively declare that he can't win the general election."

That crazy penn. Making a case for his candidate. The guy must be nutz.

No really. Is the the stuff that runs through the "liberal medias" heads? penn makes a case for his candidate. The "liberal meida" is baffled.

Anyway I can't wait till ambinder copies and pastes a gaint email blast rebuttal from the slim, good looking and always charming axelrod.

Posted by hadenough | March 13, 2008 4:45 PM

Anyone who thinks that playing those sermons only appeals to Republicans is very mistaken. I have been a liberal Democrat all my life and I must say that any person that could comfortably sit and listen to that type of rhetoric and not leave that church lacks the integrity to be President. It is beginning to look like the movie Annie Hall, when Woody Allen is accused of being a bigot. He says sure I am, but at least I'm a bigot for the left. Hate is wrong, wherever it comes from.

Posted by allan | March 13, 2008 5:48 PM

It is worth pointing out that several polls suggest that Obama may lose white working class voters, especially men, to John McCain.

It's worth pointing out that several polls suggest that Clinton may lose independents and moderates of both genders to John McCain.

Posted by Ike | March 13, 2008 5:53 PM

Well, it seems that the Clintons' brief against Obama can be summed up as followed:

1. He's young
2. He's inexperienced
3. He's black
4. He's all rhetoric and no action
5. He's a plagiarist
6. He's black
7. He's unelectable
8. And, oh by the way, he's black

Their desperation is palpable. I think I owe my father an apology. He was right about the Clintons all along.

Posted by mbtogut | March 13, 2008 6:07 PM

Again, Clinton Playbook, Rule No.1: PERCEPTION TRUMPS REALITY. Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, Hillary Clinton would have you to believe that her opponent, Barack Obama, can't win. Don't believe your lying eyes, says she, he can't win. Steady-on: http://theseedsof9-11.com

Posted by Peggy McGilligan | March 13, 2008 6:07 PM

Well, Mr. Penn, you picked a strange day to make that absurd claim when a poll is released showing Obama running stronger than Hillary in PA against Mccain:

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_031308.htm

John McCain 48%

Hillary Clinton 42%

Undecided 10%

John McCain 47%

Barack Obama 44%

Undecided 9%


Maybe those Rush voters are not going to stick with her in the General? Who knew?

Posted by RKA | March 13, 2008 6:17 PM

Uhm, while Obama MAY lose white blue collar voters to McCain, Hillary is 15-20% behind McCain among men in every major poll.

Besides letting Mark Penn speak is a blessing in disguise. Almost everything he has suggested to Hillary has gone the other way.

Whoops!!!

Posted by yiannis | March 13, 2008 6:33 PM

Just a caution about quoting polls in march/april when the election is in november:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/04/02/opinion/polls/main609944.shtml

KERRY VS. BUSH: CHOICE IN NOVEMBER
(Registered voters)
Nationwide
John Kerry
Now
48%
3/2004
43%
George Bush
Now
43%
3/2004
46%

Posted by kirenaj | March 13, 2008 6:40 PM

HALF this country has said that they will NEVER vote for Hillary Clinton...OVER A YEAR OUT FROM THE ELECTION..

And OBAMA is the one that can't win the General?

Puleeze

Posted by rikyrah | March 13, 2008 8:29 PM

Anyone who thinks that playing those sermons only appeals to Republicans is very mistaken. I have been a liberal Democrat all my life and I must say that any person that could comfortably sit and listen to that type of rhetoric and not leave that church lacks the integrity to be President. It is beginning to look like the movie Annie Hall, when Woody Allen is accused of being a bigot. He says sure I am, but at least I'm a bigot for the left. Hate is wrong, wherever it comes from.

Posted by allan | March 13, 2008 5:48 PM

Barack Obama like many consider their Pastor a member of the family and often times you not only can but also will disagree with Family. My sister and I do not talk about Politics or a number of other topics for that matter. We have agreed to disagree. That doesn’t mean I won’t speak to her visit her and her child and grand children…Some people reading my posts might think I’m a republican actually I’m not

I’m lower income and white, I never went to college only a trade school. I should be Hillary supporter according to all the exit polls and what not. Edwards dropped before Super Tuesday. I was faced with a difficult choice perhaps the most difficult choice I ever had to make support someone who I loathe! Or give my support to someone who might not be up to the job. I decided to go with the unknown as the better choice.

Clinton is indeed a fighter has all these really wonderful bullet points about how she’s going to do this and that from day one. Then I look at reality she’d be facing a deadlocked Senate because of the math 34 seats up for re-election each party has 12 solid seats 10 tight contest. The math for a filibuster proof Senate for the Democratic Party is just this side of impossible.

We as a nation can't afford failed heath care bill after failed heath care bill. The resubmission of an economical stimular package that anyone who passed business math or economics 101 with higher than D average realizes won't work.

For those who haven’t been listening to the opposition? When 24% of the votes cast for Hillary in Mississippi were actually cast by Republicans, you have to wonder why? Rush Limbaugh has publicly Stated that Hillary Clinton is “bloodying Up” Barack Obama for them (the Republican Party) so they don’t need to. Something is radically wrong when the opposition is cheering for the enemy. Hillary Clinton is so busy destroying the Democratic Party. She can't see the forest all these trees are in the way. IS THIS REALLY WHAT THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMETTEE WANTS!!! If not, then everyone had better start writing to the DNC to do something about Hillary Clinton. Almost all the jokes of this political season are “Billery” or “Hillbilly’s from Arkansas” I’ve even heard “Hell Billy’s”…

The time has come to make it clear to the Clinton Campaign. That the brand of roll in the mud dirty politics they want to play to get the nomination at all cost! Is at best going to win them the battle and lose the war AKA the General Election. She is effectively giving the next presidency to John McCain.

Posted by SC Rose | March 13, 2008 10:44 PM

Okay. Obama is ahead in delegates, votes and won more states. Hillary is losing to him.
So, if Obama cannot win the general, how is it again that Hillary thinks she can?
She is second place and LOSING in the democratic primaries.
More Clintonian up is down thinking becasue it doesn't make any sense!

Posted by vwcat | March 13, 2008 11:22 PM

Awww...they cut out the part where Penn says the sky isn't blue and the grass isn't green.

Posted by Tom J | March 13, 2008 11:49 PM

what leads you to believe that this country will elect an African-American President?

And Hillary Clinton can't even beat this guy? What leads anyone to believe this country will elect Hillary Clinton. She can't even beat a black guy. In her own party.

Posted by Pug | March 14, 2008 9:59 AM

There are real limitations to what you can glean from the primaries going into the general.

http://www.slate.com/id/2186204/

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23591347/

As for men being particularly likely to go Republican, Barack Obama has significantly outperformed Hillary Clinton in several hypothetical match-ups among male voters. Some even have Obama winning men.

Posted by Dark Heart | March 14, 2008 11:14 AM

HALF this country has said that they will NEVER vote for Hillary Clinton...OVER A YEAR OUT FROM THE ELECTION.. And OBAMA is the one that can't win the General?

Rikyrah, you just don't understand her general election strategy. It's really very simple. She wins every single other vote, getting exactly half of the country. Then she steps in and makes the tie-breaking vote for herself! Simple!

Posted by LFC | March 14, 2008 12:51 PM