Weren't we supposed to have learned by now that Barack Obama raised more than $50M for the month, thereby breaking all sorts of records?
« Further Evidence That Clinton Won The Spin War | Main | HRC On Comedy Central » Obama's February Money04 Mar 2008 09:28 am Comments (75)
saving it for push back against HRC comeback storyline tonight? Obama08! 
+1 to Kineslaw Makes sense - would be washed out in the drama of today whereas tomorrow it could be the knockout blow or at least help change the story if he loses both.
My inside sources in the Clinton campaign are saying that he raised only in the neighborhood of 10 million.
Tim K: My sources inside your home suggest that you should keep taking your meds.
He did $10 million in one week.
I'd be pretty darn suprised if it was as low as 10 million, but it's certainly possible that the numbers haven't been released because fundraising hasn't been quite as good as expected. That said I wouldn't be shocked if they were just delaying for spin reasons as suggested above.
Maybe he's waiting for Hillary to release her tax returns.
Barack Obama has spent an unprecedented amount of money on the March 4th states. Should Senator Obama fail to score decisive victories with all of the resources and effort he is bringing to bear, the message will be clear:
Tim K is batarded!
I woke up wondering the same thing, but agree that he's saving it for post 3/4 push-back. If HRC refuses to drop out, what better way to say he (and 1M+ donors) are ready to continue on. Plus, can you imagine the donation pitch he could make with claims that the establishment is fighting tool & nail to prevent needed change? It would be a VERY effective rallying point, especially because of the voter bridges HRC is burning with her latest ugly tactics. Based on general blog comment sections, I'm expecting a major blowback in the races to follow that echoes her loss in SC. Too many people want the bitterness that keeps us in gridlock to end & more focus will be put on her scorched earth strategy in the day to come. She's given Obama the opening to go there now.
LawSchoolDem - I saw Terry McAuliffe on Morning Joe, too. But thanks for the rerun.
I think its clear he is holding back until after today to release, because Brokaw is also reporting that they have 50 superdelegates they will be announcing soon.
Hey LawSchoolDem, you should probably come up with your own talking points instead of copying/pasting them from the Clinton campaign. Also, Tom Brokaw just reported on MSNBC that Obama has 50 super-delegates lined up to go public for him after today. That would pretty much be a knockout blow for the Clintons.
obama didn't release his numbers because they are so much higher than hillary's and obama knows that hillary would spin it "can you believe i won even one state with his fundraising advantage?" he doesn't want to let hillary play up the fact that she's competitive even though he has so much more cash
On TNR, Noam Scheiber has the same take as Kineslaw and other posters here: "Also, don't forget the money. Obama probably raised well over $50 million in February, but the campaign's been mum so far about the specific number. As some of our commenters have pointed out, they may be saving the announcement for when it can finish Hillary off once and for all. On the heels of a Texas win, $55 million or whatever would go a long way toward convincing the media and wavering party elites that Obama has this thing wrapped up."
Almost regardless of the outcome today (w/ the exception being an unexpected Clinton blowout in Ohio and/or Texas or a substantial delegate victory for Clinton on the day), Obama's strategy is transparent, obvious, and smart: he's held everything back leading up to today -- hasn't really weighed in on Clinton's gambit regarding media bias, hasn't released fundraising numbers, hasn't had many big establishment endorsements this week; instead he's focused just about everything on on-the-ground efforts in Texas/Ohio/Rhode Island. He's playing to win or tie today, and to unleash everything he's held back tomorrow to dominate the message. Conversely, Clinton's been working the message this week. Another cable townhall, going on every talk show imaginable, strongly pushing every character flaw Obama might have that'd seed doubts should she be close tonight (NAFTA/Rezko/Experience). Fortunately for Obama, Clinton's also been transparent about this and not terribly surprising. I'm dead certain that Obama's ready with major endorsements tomorrow, a flood of surrogates endorsing his experience/judgment/general credibility. When was the last time we saw Ted Kennedy jump on Morning Joe (or whatever) and call Hillary on her bullshit re: experience. Ditto John Kerry, Chris Dodd, etc. Where's Obama's argument been that he really can win the red states (that suspiciously elect Dem governors) that Hillary's written off? Those governors and those states' reps will show up too. There's going to be an unparalleled appeal to pragmatism by the Obama team tomorrow, and I really don't think Clinton's done a thing to prepare for it. Once again, they've prepared for what's coming today and ignored what it'll lead to tomorrow or the next week. As in New Hampshire, "Comeback Kid!" won't last more than a day even if the results are good enough for her to hold on, and frankly she's got nothing else in the pipeline. The fact that they're pushing the ongoing Rezko trial so hard -- with next to zero chance that it'll turn up anything against Obama anytime soon -- shows that they're trying to run out the clock and hope that someone slips up. Doubtful.
I think that the swing in the last two weeks from 20 points down to almost tied in two large (and I am sure expensive) states was a pretty good investment, and a major victory for the Obama campaign. The ability to spend so much money suggests that Obama raised what it needed to, and I am sure it will be more than $50 million. Because of this major shift, to buy this idea that Obama needs to have a decisive victory in all states or Clinton wins is absurd.
Brokaw? 50 superdelegates lined up? Wha? Link please.
Obama's already said he's raised $50K plus. It's obvious they're saving the announcement to bring Hillary's "victory" lap to an early end. Same with the superdelegates. His team has run an incredible campaign.
Once Hillary wins 3 of the 4 contests tomorrow: TX by 5% (with more delegates), OH by 8%, and RI by 10% she'll be the front runner. Hopefully then Edwards will come out for the candidate best positioned to beat McCain - Hillary Clinton. Laugh all you want - the media is still pushing Obama when it's clear that Hillary's got the momentum ...
Yes, there's a ton of momentum that comes from losing 11 straight contests. Also, think about this: There has not been a single day in the entire campaign when Clinton has had more pledged delegates than Obama. Clearly, she's on a roll. I doubt Obama's campaign would have so definitively stated that they raised more money than Clinton if it weren't true. And they've certainly spent a ton of money in these primaries, so unless Obama is planning to loan himself $5 million, I think this is an indication that they're pretty solid financially. But they gain nothing by revealing the figure now. It doesn't help; it might even hurt by reinforcing the notion that he's the big bad man picking on Hillary. Instead, they wait until after the results, so that they can release the number -- along with, supposedly, those superdelegate endorsements -- to either blunt Hillary's momentum if she wins Ohio and Texas, or finish her off if she doesn't.
Craig -- Voila: http://thepage.time.com/2008/03/04/tom-brokaw-says-obama-has-50-more-superdelegates-in-his-back-pocket/
This race has closed with two simple questions -- who is ready to be Commander-in-Chief and who is ready to be the steward of our economy? If Senator Clinton has the kind of successful day we anticipate it will be clear that she is the candidate who has passed those tests.
Senator Obama fail to score decisive victories with all of the resources and effort he is bringing to bear, the message will be clear: Or it could be that he has overcome a 20-point gap in just a few weeks to deny Clinton the decisive victory she needed to close the massive deficit she faces in the race for delegates. All in how you look at it.
Once Hillary wins 3 of the 4 contests tomorrow: That's right, don't forget to turn out to the polls for Hillary tomorrow, March 5! TX by 5% (with more delegates), OH by 8%, and RI by 10% she'll be the front runner. RI "doesn't matter." (h/t MP) Those other healthy margins would indeed give Hillary quite a shot in arm, but it's unlikely those wins would whittle down Obama's lead in delegates enough to make a difference that won't be reversed with WY and MS later this week. The result you outline falls into the "dead man's zone" where the delegate math isn't appreciably altered, but the campaign will be prolonged regardless. I think this is a bad thing given that the Republicans have their nominee (and a nominee who can't spend any money until August -- not that he's particularly good at raising it) but it's an open question.
But I thought he had "momentum"?
Tim.K should be banned he is a troll. Enough said.
LawSchoolDem -- You are hilarious.
Or it could be that he has overcome a 20-point gap in just a few weeks to deny Clinton the decisive victory she needed to close the massive deficit she faces in the race for delegates. Which, I think, is unquestionably the "objectively" correct framework to look at this. Texas and Ohio are states inherently favorable to Hillary's candidacy. Obama was way down in those states until approximately two weeks ago. The final results tonight, and the correspondence (or lack thereof) to the state of the race two weeks ago, should inform coverage of the events of tonight. And I'm not saying that Obama has already triumphed compared to that previous state of the race -- I think Hillary has about an even chance of going 3 for 4 tonight with healthy margins in those states. That would be a worse result for Hillary compared to her strength coming in, but given the movement of momentum over the last two weeks, an impressive and important recovery with respect to continuing her campaign. Don't get me wrong, losing 20 points in a week ain't great, but if she winds up losing 10 points over two weeks ... well, better than it was before.
Kathy: I never said Obama will only have raised 10 million in February, I would never say something so clearly false. Clearly he's going to have raised at least 50 million, if not more. Jeff: Realistically how could a candidate lose 11 contests in a row and be outspent from between 2-1 and 4-1 on television and maintain a 20 point advantage in a contested state? That just flies in the face of everything we know about how campaigns work. Since the polls have been so tight over the last two weeks a win will be a win in any of these states. A win of any scale in Texas will be even greater since several polls last week had Obama slightly ahead. If the Clinton strategy going forward is to make the case for her "moral claim" to the nomination than the precise delegate outcome tonight is irrelevant. What is important is for her to win the popular vote tonight over the 4 states, and in particular, to win the popular votes in Ohio and Texas (with little regard to the Texas caucus results). An important part of the argument going forward is that primaries are more inclusive and are therefore more representative of the will of the Democratic party electorate. For those of you who call that kind of argument a form of sour grapes, I would remind you that this would be the first time that the choice of nominee has come down to the caucus states. Without dispute, Obama would be losing this nomination decisively were it not for the caucuses. If Clinton can take a popular vote lead in this process then she will have a moral claim to the nomination equal to or greater than Barack Obama claim based on a lead based on pledged delegates awarded. Let me also remind you that there is nothing in the rules of this process that say it is the winner of the pledged delegates who becomes the nominee. It's the winner of the most delegates that convention, including party leaders and elected officials who can make an independent judgment based on popular vote, electability, their opinion on the caucus system or whatever they see fit.
Tom Brokaw just reported on MSNBC that Obama has 50 super-delegates lined up to go public for him after today. Sounds like they're going to be "automatically" lining up behind the frontrunner - Barack Obama.
LawSchoolDem is obviously attending one of those unaccredited schools in California. But it's cute to hear talking points based in denial. Keep it up, LawSchoolDem! How do you explain Obama erasing all of Hillary's big leads in every state the longer he campaigns in them? It's a serious question for you, but I'm sure you'll just spout something about how that's not change you can believe in. Get a life and look at the facts. Hillary moves about 5% back and forth, Obama always swings up about 10-20%. So who is the insurgent?
she will have a moral claim to the nomination Ha! Thanks, Tim K, that was no doubt the best laugh I'll have all day. The Clintons and morals mentioned in a sentence that doesn't also contain the word 'no'. That's rich, real rich...
Tim, your talking points bore me. Hillary came into this race with enormous advantages, including universal name recognition, proven fundraising capabilities, and marriage to the greatest campaigner the world has ever known. If you pick arbitrary points to chart the dynamic of the race, of course you can "prove" that any candidate is under- or overperforming. But in the words of a great Canadian, that don't impress me much. If Hillary wins both big states by 15+%, it's a win. Between 0-15%, she falls into the dead man's zone. If she loses either one, the race is over. Also, please stop with the pedantic "let me remind you" crap. I'm well aware.
My inside sources in the Clinton campaign are saying that he raised only in the neighborhood of 10 million - Tim K So in addition to being a moron you're a liar too. Wow.
Also, Tom Brokaw just reported on MSNBC that Obama has 50 super-delegates lined up to go public for him after today. It makes you wonder why he didn't release prior to today, to give him a boost in the four contests. Makes me suspect they're holding something back in case of bad news. If they do get bad news, don't be shocked if some of those fifty deny reports they've pledged themselves to Obama. And, at any rate, as Congressman Lewis recently demonstrated, automatic delegates have been known to go back and forth. Additionally, I'd say it's more than likely that Hillary, too, will announce a clutch of automatic delegates following today's impressive wins.
It seems like the comments have become primarily populated with impostors and/or people proclaiming various implausible opinions. I think Fred Agbot is somehow to blame.
Jeff Larson. Tim.K should be ignored he is a troll. Prehaps he can make his way to TalkLeft that is a Hillary lovefest. They ban anyone who gives a rebuttal to them or argues with their premise.
please stop with the pedantic "let me remind you" crap He can't stop. Tim K's a serial pedanticist.
If Hillary wins both big states by 15+%, it's a win. Between 0-15%, she falls into the dead man's zone. If she loses either one, the race is over. If she wins three out of four by even tiny margins, it's a huge win for Hillary from the perspective of momentum. If she fails to win Texas, but it's reasonably close, she may go on to lose the nomination (though I wouldn't bet on it given the tough scrutiny the media is finally giving Obama's dealings with they very shady Rezko), but it's certainly not "over." Clinton's campaign is pretty clearly telegraphing they'll continue as long as they take Ohio.
They could have released the numbers on March 1st. Instead they stuck with "quite a bit more than that" and waited. I concur that they're saving up ammo for Wednesday. Clinton has made it clear that any result whatsoever (including four defeats) will be claimed as a victory, so this has two prongs: First, do as well as possible in all four states without seeking to drown her in superdelegate endorsements, which could backfire by reinforcing the piling-on-poor-me narrative. Second, deal a follow-up set of punches later this week: Pledged delegate gap? Still there. Money? We're drowning you. Superdelegates inclined to smile on 4 more months of McCain endorsements and then bestow the crown upon the loser? Not happening. She may still not drop out. But the party will have given her every chance to join the reality-based community; if not, time to, yes, pile on.
Automatic delegates are ultimately going to decide this thing for Hillary. She's got the message, the experience chops, and the political will to stand up to the special interests. I look forward to that day when she dons the crown of Democratic victor courtesy of the automatics.
Clinton's campaign is pretty clearly telegraphing they'll continue as long as they take Ohio. http://www.fanforhire.com/images/comical_ali.jpg Hey, if they win both, I can certainly see why they think they should stay in. But I just don't see a healthy scenario in which she wins the nomination without racking up big delegate gains tonight.
"Clinton's campaign is pretty clearly telegraphing they'll continue as long as they take Ohio." Seems like they're telegraphing this through Igloo. "Automatic delegates"? No one outside the campaign or its most intense fellow-travelers calls them that. As for "momentum," it really hasn't amounted to much this whole campaign, has it? Is Hillary going to now win Wyoming and Mississippi? Doubtful. Unless Obama suddenly unravels, which isn't likely, the only way for Hillary to win the nomination is to utterly destroy him, and guarantee a McCain presidency in the process.
She's got the message Hell, she's got more than one - she's got a new one every week! the experience chops Silence on the phone.... and the political will to stand up to the special interests Okay, I get it. Snarkrifically done, igloo.
Jeff larson: If she carries more than that into the convention Obama's convention might not be yield him the crown. And the thing is you still haven't mentioned any precedent for someone with so many delegates and a pile of money dropping out when the math gets tricky.
I think it's pretty clear that Clinton is in this thing for another month, probably even to Pennsylvania. Unless she loses Ohio badly, which isn't going to happen. Dems are lucky that McCain is broke. I think she views the situation as a no-lose one. She can conintue on and get the nomination and go against McCain; or, she can burn bridges with Dem voters - which will really just debilitate the party and set her up nicely for 2012. She can run on her platform in any election. Obama's is only relevant now. The radio/fake AP ad is pretty disgusting, by the way. Obama's restraint is pretty impressive.
"If the Clinton strategy going forward is to make the case for her 'moral claim' to the nomination than the precise delegate outcome tonight is irrelevant." This is the sort of claim which depends on people not understanding math. As I pointed out elsewhere, the pledged delegate count is highly relevant to the "moral claim" strategy. That is because: (1) the greater the pledged delegate gap, the greater the percentage of superdelegates who will need to accept Clinton's "moral claim"; and (2) the greater the pledged delegate gap, the worse Clinton's "moral claim" (because the more obvious it will be that the superdelegates would not be breaking a tie, but actually overruling the result of the elections). And this is really Clinton's last good opportunity to significantly close the delegate gap (the remaining states at best look like a wash). Of course, all this is obvious--and in fact it was actually being said by the Clinton Campaign not too long ago! The only reason they are not still saying it is because they find themselves in a situation where they are very unlikely to achieve what they need to achieve, so they have no choice but to change their story.
The Automatics will make it so.
Laugh all you want. Hillary, too, will announce a clutch of automatic delegates following today's impressive wins. Ha. Ha ha ha ha. She's been going backward in superdelegates and would have every reason to announce any gains, especially last week as they fled with the goalposts to Rhode Island. Just one super joining her cause would have helped with that ephemeral momentum shift. Obama, in contrast, doesn't gain that much from each individual endorsement in these contests. It won't get him more votes in any of the states today. Saving them for a deluge is a much better strategy. To review: blowing your 20 point lead is not a momentum shift, even if you win by 5 points. Increasing the 20 point lead to 25 or 30 is a momentum shift.
Michael, I'm not going to respond to you without some indication that you actually, you know, read my post. I just can't foresee a positive expected return from trying to reply to a string of non-sequiturs and vague insults. And don't call me Shirley.
Michael C is a Tim K sock puppet.
As I pointed out elsewhere, the pledged delegate count is highly relevant to the "moral claim" strategy. Not nearly as relevant as the popular vote count. Continuing to freeze out Obama in the large states (well, he did manage to win his home state) is the perfect platform for her to close on his modest lead in this category.
Both lose if either wins the nomination. It is clear at this point Clinton supporters won't vote for Obama and vice versa and they don't like each other enough to run together. So the Dems lose altogether. Atleast, we know there's a pretty good chance McCain will be a one term president. The war will go on for 4 more years, big oil will continue to do well, recession city for the remainder of 2008 and perhaps the Democrats will get their act together for a 2012 run.
Zina: Who's currently ahead in the popular vote count? Thanks for playing.
Both lose if either wins the nomination. It is clear at this point Clinton supporters won't vote for Obama and vice versa and they don't like each other enough to run together. So the Dems lose altogether. Atleast, we know there's a pretty good chance McCain will be a one term president. The war will go on for 4 more years, big oil will continue to do well, recession city for the remainder of 2008 and perhaps the Democrats will get their act together for a 2012 run.
Zina - what would the popular vote count need to be at the end of the Primaries for Obama to still be entitled to the nomination? 100,000? Does that count FL and MI???? Let's get specific. Because before we know it, it'll have to be 250,000 then 500,000 depening on what number he has. And he will have a lead, you can be sure of that.
Obama will make up any popular vote deficit from today in Mississippi on March 11th when he wins by more than 25 points.
Hillary Clinton, loyal Democrat: "I have a lifetime of experience I will bring to the White House. I know Senator McCain has a lifetime of experience he will bring to the White House. And Senator Obama has a speech he made in 2002." Stay classy, Hillary.
In the days after Super Tuesday, Obama's campaign made a big deal of its impressive fundraising ...and it seems to have spurred Clinton supporters to make lots of small-dollar donations that added up big (something she had not previously done). I would guess they didn't want to risk a last minute surge of donations to Clinton in the days before the election and will release their number later this week.
The Obama campaign should announce it right as Hillary gets up to give her speech tonight. Heh.
So you think we'll get to see Hillary's patented bob, point, and cackle tonight? I especially love that big 'ol Joker type grin she has painted on her face while she does it.
Obama is done. If anyone is paying attention, it's clear that the Rezko connection is going to sink his campaign. He is more thoroughly compromised than can be imagined: If that isn't bad enough, rumors are floating around Chicago that "illegal campaign financing, outright theft of American taxpayer money, and shady connections to a country who's economic and physical future is dependent upon who will be the next President." are just the tip of the iceberg. Even if none of it is true, Obama is toast. It's time for him to drop out and back Clinton for the general. Even without his history of corruption coming to light, Obama has no chance. The Superdelegates and FL and MI delegates give Clinton more than enough delegates for the nomination. The fairy tale is over.
Zina's comment is also the sort of comment that requires not understanding math. Specifically, if the populations of smaller States A and B add up to the population of bigger State C, then you can't lose States A and B by 20 points each and win State C by 10 points and expect to come out ahead in the total popular vote.
Math! Math doesn't go away just because it's inconvenient! It's like arguing that Wyoming and Mississippi are invisible.
Everyone knows that Hillary is the better politician and that's what this country needs!
Rock -- Is your space suit comfortable? Need us to send you anything from Earth?
tomorrow they will announce 50 super delegates for Obama and 50 million dollars
Rock -- Is your space suit comfortable? Need us to send you anything from Earth? Ground Control to Major Rock....
From a friend in the know. EARLY EXITS: OH: 58 Clinton, 37 Obama, 4 JRE Disclaimer: This is only first round of EE polling, so beware, HRC #'s could be lower, or even higher. Either way looking very good for hillary.....
I haven't received a single donation request from the Obama campaign in over a week, so my guess is that February was very good indeed.
EARLY EXITS FROM AN INSIDE SOURCE: OH: 51 Clinton, 49 Obama Hillary looks to be toast
Obama in jail in '08!
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My guess is he is saving the total for one of two purposes:
1) To blunt Hillary's momentum if he has a bad day in Texas or Ohio
2) To increase the pressure on Hillary to drop out if he has a good day
Posted by Kineslaw | March 4, 2008 9:35 AM