Quinnipiac in Ohio: Clinton 49, Obama 45

The trendline shows a shrinking Clinton lead. Apparently, Obama has gained among men and black men (really?). The gender gap is huge -- men support Obama by 21 points -- 55 to 39; while women support Clinton, 55 to 39.

The classic Clinton demographic coalition -- working class whites and older Democrats -- is giving her the edge here. Obama's getting fully 90% of the black vote, more of the votes of those younger than 45, and the votes of the wealthy. White men remaining a swing demo: Clinton and Obama tie at 47 to 46; Clinton wins among white women, 68 to 26.

Comments

Certainly good news for Obama. These numbers point to a disturbing pattern, though. If Clinton were to get the nomination, would she be able to get intelligent white men to vote for her? Or would they vote for McCain? I think that's a real problem for her and if she gets the nomination, I think it's something that demands a lot of attention. The media is really letting this slide - when will they finally start getting tough on her? Maybe America's just not ready for a white woman president.

/snarkrific

Posted by Craig | March 3, 2008 9:34 AM

If Clinton were able to take the nomination would she be able to get African Americans (after her and her supporters have said every day that African Americans don't count as democrats)? No Marc/Craig, she would not, people have their dignity, and McCain really can't be painted to be a racist.

Oh well not like African Americans are in states that matter, well except for Ohio, FL, and MO and VA. She lost the General Election a long time ago (after SC) it would be nice if the news media started to realize that.

Posted by eh? | March 3, 2008 10:35 AM

Very funny, folks. But I do think that if Obama wins (and I certainly hope he will) he'll have to work hard to keep those white women HRC supporters from jumping over to McCain (McCain's own record will be a help in this, fortunately). I think a lot of them see themselves in Hillary, and are seeing themselves passed over for the Next New Thing.

Posted by Persia | March 3, 2008 10:39 AM

snarkrific...

they...i...would vote for McCain.

Posted by intelligent white man | March 3, 2008 10:52 AM

Overall, using the exit polls, Obama is only up about 2 points, give or take, among white men. The huge margins lately come from white independent males, who aren't likely to be voting for Obama in the general.

Demographics among Dem voters are all strongly pro-Clinton. Right now, she's up over 20% among white Democrats, 25+ points among Hispanic Democrats, and 4 points (roughly) among all Democrats.

The last number includes caucus voters; if I assume all caucus voters are white (which is probably true except for Nevada), and add in Obama's total, she's still ahead by 19 points.

Posted by Cal | March 3, 2008 11:09 AM

Overall, using the exit polls

That would be your first mistake, yes.

Posted by Persia | March 3, 2008 11:11 AM

Sadly - a lot of other polls show a big jump for Clinton in Ohio. I just pray that's not the case in TX

Posted by Dan | March 3, 2008 11:13 AM

Obama's supporters certainly use exit polls to yap about his support from white voters, so it's odd they suddenly don't matter.

I imagine the bad news from New Jersey, showing Obama losing a blue state by a huge margin, don't matter, either?

Of course, polls about the future only matter if they show Obama winning.

Posted by Cal | March 3, 2008 11:35 AM

I'm not a Clinton fan, they could have done much better being public servants than they did.

Still, there is hope for them yet, if they can get over themselves as young and hip. How can we tell them they're not?

I hope HRC wins Ohio, quits next week and goes on to a great senate career.

We've got a storm moving through, HRCs old women backers may sit home, more so than they did in New Hampshire.

Posted by Kim | March 3, 2008 11:37 AM

Another person saying Hillary should quit when she has 1200 delegates? Why in hell would any one quit with such an amazing number of delegates pledged to her? Can you name a single candidate with such a huge number of delegates and money who didn't shake the dice and go to the convention?
Kim thinks a leader has to be young and hip?
How pathetic a test is that?
Remember FDR didn't get the nod until the third ballot at the convention. Bill didn't clinch nomination until June. Lincoln got it on the 11th ballot.
Hillary should keep going because the young and hip may not have the stamina to keep up.

Posted by Michael C. | March 3, 2008 11:50 AM

Why are you only linking to a poll that shows a shrinking Clinton lead when several other Ohio polls have Clinton's lead steady or expanding? That's pretty blatant cherry-picking.

If anyone would like to see a comprehensive summary of the polls go to www.pollster.com

Posted by Tim K | March 3, 2008 1:49 PM

I also highly recommend www.analpenetration.com

One of my favorite sites.

Posted by Tim K | March 3, 2008 3:47 PM

Listen, a lead is a lead. And 4 point lead with 24 hours to go in what is arguably the most important state to vote so far - is significant.

Let's not forget Obama is expected to win all 4 of these states.

With another 24 hours for the Red Phone ad to make people they need hillary at 3am, this 4 point lead should increase and Hillary will change the narrative.

Never forget NH, NM, CA, MA, and FL. Tomorrow night we'll see who was right and who was wrong.

Hillary '08!

Posted by Fred Agbot | March 3, 2008 4:23 PM

Hillary wins Ohio by 8. But Obama wins Texas by 2 or 3. Crossovers help Obama in Texas, but not enough of them in Ohio. Also, early voting shows Obama up in Texas but not in Ohio.

Delegates will be close to even at the end of tomorrow night. Hillary will flash her silly grin about being the comeback kid and the braindead media will believe her like they did after Super Tuesday when she won "the significant states." Then reality will set in and superdelegates will realize this is, actually, over for Hillary Clinton. Wyoming and Missisippi will only drive the point home.

Posted by Elrod | March 3, 2008 11:21 PM