The Daily Three: My Critics

1. The indispensible Brendan Nyhan's take on why party elders refuse to interfere with Obama is pretty convincing:

.....most party elders would prefer that Hillary withdraw but don't want to pay the cost of pushing her out of the race. There are two classic economic problems here. The first is that the collective benefits of pushing Hillary out are much larger than the individual benefit to any one party leader. Why would Pelosi or Reid risk becoming a hated figure to millions of Hillary's supporters? As a result, everyone is likely to sit back and hope that someone else will pay the cost of forcing her out.

The second problem is it's difficult to coordinate. If all the leaders could magically come together to ask her to withdraw, it might be less costly to them individually to push her out, but any effort to make this happen would inevitably leak, generating untold recriminations and infighting. The incentives to defect from such an agreement would also be strong. As a result, no one is likely to chance it.

For both of these reasons, it's likely that the race will go to the convention unless (a) Hillary decides to withdraw on her own or (b) the accumulation of superdelegate commitments after the primaries drives her out.

2. But why are the costs so high? A lot of Democratic voters are not supporting Barack Obama. Also, I'm beginning to be persuaded that Nancy Pelosi is doing everything she can to nudge Clinton out of the race, including the adoption of Barack Obama's superdelegate argument. The reaction by Clinton donors today is evidence enough that the Clinton campaign was really, really bothered by Pelosi's small intervention.

3. "Allies key to McCain's foreign policy vision." That's the CNN headline out of McCain's foreign policy speech in Los Angeles today. The BBC headlines: "McCain urges closer foreign ties" and features this quote:

"Our great power does not mean we can do whatever we want whenever we want."

Most other audiences are reading the speech as an affirmation of the necessity of the surge in Iraq. Meanwhile, the lead of most newscasts tonight will be violence in Baghdad and the expected battle between the Madhi Army and Iraqi/US forces. Read the full remarks here.

Comments

Pelosi, (the Bizarre, Bastard, Vampire Daughter of Bella Lugosi), wants to be Queen of The Cult. Then she can live forever by drinking the blood of the Accolytes, instead of relying on Botox, Cosmetic Surgery and Human Growth Hormones. That gets expensive after awhile.

Posted by robert ethan | March 26, 2008 5:37 PM

"2. But why are the costs so high? A lot of Democratic voters are not supporting Barack Obama"

Exactly. Hillary owns dems. obama not so much. That's what really scares axelrod about the supers.

Posted by hadenough | March 26, 2008 6:03 PM

I think I saw this argument in another thread here a few days ago and I agree with it:

the reason the supers are not going en masse to Obama and pushing Hillary out is that they can't/don't want to seen as doing that before the voters have had their say. If Hillary were to loose on May 6th I think Bowers argument about her being more pressured to get out is right but until then they will not do it.

It is not about "a lot of voters not being for Obama" it is about when is the right and most credible/effective/least costly moment to apply the pressure.

Posted by lfo | March 26, 2008 6:13 PM

Well. The transaction costs are low IF YOU'RE AL GORE!!!

Also, that superdelegate primary being floated is essentially the collective action scenario you envision, a shortcircuit to the convention battle that occurs after all the voting, thus avoiding disenfranchisement or claims of such.

Posted by WHERE THE HELL IS AL GORE? | March 26, 2008 6:16 PM

This interview with Harry Reid from the Las Vegas Review-Journal seems to suggest that the nomination will be over one way or another and sooner rather than later.

Question: Do you still think the Democratic race can be resolved before the convention?

Reid: Easy.

Q: How is that?

Reid: It will be done.

Q: It just will?

Reid: Yep.

Q: Magically?

Reid: No, it will be done. I had a conversation with Governor Dean (Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean) today. Things are being done.

Posted by Anonymous | March 26, 2008 6:26 PM

I love how Hillary supporters claim they'll vote McCain over Obama and cite Wright every chance they get - and then conveniently ignore Hagee.

"Living Hypocrisy" would have been a better title.

Posted by Jack | March 26, 2008 6:32 PM

Actions speak better than words.

Mr Obama choose Mr. Wright as his spiritual teacher for 20 years and included Mr. Wright in his election staff, these are the actions of Mr. Obama. When shocking hate messages began to flow from the mouth of Mr. Wright on television, hyperbole spin was written for Mr. Obama distancing Mr. Obama from Mr. Wright. The weird thing is, some people actually believe the spin written by Mr. Obama’s election machine. But regardless what Mr. Obama says, he chose Mr. Wright as his spiritual teacher for 20 years and added Mr. Wright to his election staff.

If you make the choice to listen and learn from Hitler every week over 20 years, do you expect me or any other rational being to believe that you wouldn’t be or want to be influenced by Hitler’s ideas? And what does that say of your personal integrity if you chose American hating Mr. Wright, or Mr. Hitler as your guide in life?

Action is the real measure of a person, not their words. We know who Mr. Obama is by his life and his teachers, not the words he spins. And we can only image the amount of hatred Mr. Obama will unleash once he achieves ultimate power. And woe be the whites, the poor, those of the Jewish faith and anyone else Mr. Obama thinks deserve retribution.

And also consider recent announcement that the chief of the firm involved in the State Department’s passport breach is one of Obama’s adviser. (And why is this not being discussed?) And that Obama has been caught lying about Rezko, regarding the amount of money Rezko gave him, and that Obama still hasn’t come clean about his Rezko land deal. Or further, how Mrs. Obama makes a phenomenal $317.000 a month at a hospital in Chicago that is famous for turning away the poor, especially the black poor.

If Obama were to become president, what would stop Mr. Obama from appointing Mr. Wright to his cabinet? And after Mr. Wright’s appointment, if anyone complained they would be called racist. And it seems as if this strategy - that it is racist to criticize a black man - is already in effect as Mr. Obama can do anything corrupt with minimal impunity by the public or the press. But if Hillary so much as sneezes, she is taken through the laundry and hung out to dry and then beaten some more. Such an obvious bias treatment towards Mr. Obama because of his race is racial discrimination. And I believe another reason why Mrs. Clinton is unfairly criticized to such an extreme is because a handful of powerful men in the media can’t stand the idea of a woman for president – likely a libido thing.

We should have as our country’s leader someone with wisdom and knowledge, whose goal is the selfless betterment of the world. We should not elect someone with a personal agenda of personal power or select them because of the fashionably of their race or the preference for a gender.

Obama is not old enough or experienced enough to take on the role of the president, and if had simple wisdom, instead of a misguided desire for power, he would know this.

Posted by Thomas Richards | March 26, 2008 6:50 PM

Wow. Crazy much?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that no, President Obama probably wouldn't put Wright in his cabinet. (There's also that pesky Senate confirmation.)

But otherwise, you're right on message - victim card, Hitler, experience, etc. etc. etc. Watch out for sniper fire on your way out.

Posted by Jack | March 26, 2008 6:55 PM

Why stop at the Cabinet? Make Wright his VP! That's the logical conclusion based on the evidence. I'd say it's inevitable.

*SNARK*

Posted by Anonymous | March 26, 2008 7:28 PM

"The reaction by Clinton donors today is evidence enough that the Clinton campaign was really, really bothered by Pelosi's small intervention."

Makes sense. Pelosi is the top ranking woman in government and speaks to Hillary's core demographic of elderly white women. Can't accuse Pelosi of being a misogynist woman-hater when she rags on Hillary.

Posted by Helter | March 26, 2008 8:12 PM

Great point Helter. This is the kind of insight that can slip by even as it's decisive.

Posted by Anonymous | March 26, 2008 8:18 PM

Yeah, Marc doesn't have an HRC bias! He calls it right down the middle...

Posted by DSG | March 26, 2008 9:36 PM

DON'T BE DUPED !!!

Large numbers of Republicans have been voting for Barack Obama in the DEMOCRATIC primaries, and caucuses from early on. Because they feel he would be a weaker opponent against John McCain. And because they feel that a Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama ticket would be unbeatable. And also because with a Clinton and Obama ticket you are almost 100% certain to get quality, affordable universal health care very soon.

But first, all of you have to make certain that Hillary Clinton takes the democratic nomination and then the Whitehouse. NOW! is the time. THIS! is the moment you have all been working, and waiting for. You can do this America. “Carpe diem” (harvest the day).

I think Hillary Clinton see’s a beautiful world of plenty for all. She is a woman, and a mother. And it’s time America. Do this for your-self, and your children’s future. You will have to work together on this and be aggressive, relentless, and creative. Americans face an even worse catastrophe ahead than the one you are living through now.

Hillary Clinton has actually won by much larger margins than the vote totals showed. And lost by much smaller vote margins than the vote totals showed. Her delegate count is actually much higher than it shows. And higher than Obama’s. She also leads in the electoral college numbers that you must win to become President in the November national election. HILLARY CLINTON IS ALREADY THE TRUE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE!

As much as 30% of Obama's primary, and caucus votes are Republicans trying to choose the weakest democratic candidate for McCain to run against. These Republicans have been gaming the caucuses where it is easier to vote cheat. This is why Obama has not been able to win the BIG! states primaries. Even with Republican vote cheating help.

Hillary Clinton has been out manned, out gunned, and out spent 2 and 3 to 1. Yet Obama has only been able to manage a very tenuous, and questionable tie with Hillary Clinton.

If Obama is the democratic nominee for the national election in November he will be slaughtered. Because the Republican vote cheating help will suddenly evaporate. All of this vote fraud and republican manipulation has made Obama falsely look like a much stronger candidate than he really is. YOUNG PEOPLE. DON’T BE DUPED! Think about it. You have the most to lose.

The democratic party needs to fix this outrage. I suggest a Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama ticket. Everyone needs to throw all your support to Hillary Clinton NOW! So you can end this outrage against YOU the voter, and against democracy.

I think Barack Obama has a once in a life time chance to make the ultimate historic gesture for unity, and change in America by accepting Hillary Clinton’s offer as running mate. Such an act now would for ever seal Barack Obama’s place at the top of the list of Americas all time great leaders, and unifiers for all of history.
The democratic party, and the super-delegates have a decision to make. Are the democrats, and the democratic party going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee to fight for the American people. Or are the republicans going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee through vote fraud, and gaming the DEMOCRATIC party primaries, and caucuses.

Fortunately the Clinton’s have been able to hold on against this fraudulent outrage with those repeated dramatic comebacks of Hillary Clinton’s. Only the Clinton’s are that resourceful, and strong. Hillary Clinton is your NOMINEE. They are the best I have ever seen.

Sincerely

jacksmith...

Posted by jacksmith | March 26, 2008 9:40 PM

jacksmith- um are you crazy? Clinton would rather destroy her party then drop out. she believes that she is entitled to the nomination. universal health care will never work! why? lobbyists control congress and last i checked, she has received a ton of money from health care knobbiest.

Vote stealing? Let me guess, the vast right winged conspiracy is at it again, right? Last I checked, I can wright in Mickey Mouse, why can't I switch parties if I want? Clinton is a cold manipulative LIAR who will lie, cheat and steal to get what she wants. I'm still waiting on her to explain her 32 years experience to me. I'm still waiting on her to explain exactly what foreign policy experience she has. Why should Obama concede to her? HE'S THE FRONT RUNNER. She should bow out gracefully.

I'm a proud republican and believe me, I love how she is tearing the party apart. However, if I am going to be stuck with a Dem for president, I would rather have Obama. He isn't old establishment. If the Clinton's are in the WH again, count on an increase in the body count, count on the Lincoln Bedroom to once again be rented out to the highest bidder, count on higher taxes, count on more promises for a better America and ending up with more corruption and greed.

Posted by midtownrebecca | March 26, 2008 11:07 PM

American hating Wright?

Hardly.

In the early 1960s, at a time when many young people were being radicalized by the Vietnam War, Wright left college and volunteered to join the United States Marine Corps. After three years as a marine, he chose to serve three more as a naval medical technician, during which time he received several White House commendations. He came to Chicago to study not long after Martin Luther King Jr.'s murder in 1968, the U.S. bombing campaign in Cambodia in 1969, and the shooting of students at Kent State University in 1970.

From an essay by Martin Marty, an extremely well respected professor of religious history

Posted by Mark | March 26, 2008 11:22 PM

jacksmith, your attempt at logic makes acid trips seem sensical.

Oh, by the way, "White House" is two words.

Posted by Jack | March 27, 2008 12:15 AM

On why more party bigwigs aren't pushing harder for Clinton to quit, it may be that Obama himself wants it to be clear that he beat her, not that she was forced out of the race.

One of these days -- maybe Pennsylvania, maybe by taking both NC and Indiana on May 3 -- he may well win the latest "Hillary's last stand" contest. Then he can indisputably go into the general as the giant killer who whooped the Clintons without much help.

Posted by John Z. | March 27, 2008 11:22 AM