Why I Won't Pay Attention To The Gallup Tracks Anymore

Except for three-day rolling averages....

Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal has got me all guilty about reading meaning into randomness.

Comments

Hmm,

He concludes there has been little change since Feb 5. Feb 5 figures reflect the first four states and Obama's big win in SC.

If we are to believe that Obama didn't gain, or gained marginally, through 10 consecutive victories in February then there are two antithetical conclusions I can reach:

1) People aren't paying attention. Hillary's name recognition and emergence as a blue dog fighting democrat carries her numbers despite Obama's momentum.

2) The base is extremely polarized.

I guess both these scenarios might be playing out...

Posted by yiannis | March 25, 2008 1:36 PM