Vermont May Be The Most Important State Of The Night

Why?

Barack Obama will win this Dean-inflected anti-war bastion handily.

Vermont will allocate 10 delegates based on the vote at the congressional district level and award three proportionally according to the statewide vote.

In all likelihood, Obama's delegate margin from Vermont will allow him to end this election night having earned a net of between six and ten delegates.

After the euphoria of potential Clinton popular vote victories in Ohio and Texas fades after 48 hours, the only number that will endure ... will be Obama's delegate margin in Vermont.

Comments

OBAMA WINS VERMONT!!!

CHALK ONE UP FOR THE GOOD GUYS!!!

Posted by Jose | March 4, 2008 7:20 PM

Sadly, Vermont doesn't count. Thanks for coming out.

Posted by NHCt | March 4, 2008 7:21 PM

Doesn't VT have just one congressional district? So isn't the winner at the "congressional district level" the same as the statewide winner?

Posted by fer | March 4, 2008 7:22 PM

And we all know that this race is about the delegates at this point. Good point, Marc

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by matt | March 4, 2008 7:22 PM

Think I'm gonna have to disagree with your political analysis there, Marc. Some pretty sharp folks have crunched the numbers in Texas, and it looks likely that Hillary will have to win with a decent popular vote margin just to break even on delegates. I would think even a marginal effect from that disparity would dwarf the blowout in Vermont. Perhaps not, though.

P.S. "Dean-inflection"? "the only number that will ensure"?

Posted by Jeff Larson | March 4, 2008 7:26 PM

The margin will be a paltry three delegates. 9-6.

Posted by eric1974 | March 4, 2008 7:26 PM

Matt: I've really enjoyed your one sentence comments that don't say a thing, followed by a link to your site.

Unfortunately I've never clicked on your links. Go figure.

Posted by Dan | March 4, 2008 7:27 PM

hey jeff, don't fret. texas has a primary and caucus and no way hil is goin to get any delegates.
good nite and good luck.

Posted by linda b | March 4, 2008 7:29 PM

Clinton isn't going to win the popular vote in Texas. The early votes clearly trended toward Obama. He probably has a 100,000 to 150,000 vote lead from the early votes. That's not the sort of stuff which is made up with a 52-48 election day victory (assuming 1 million election day votes, that's a 40,000 vote swing to Clinton), so worst case, Obama wins Texas by 60,000 votes.

Posted by The Bag of Health and Politics | March 4, 2008 7:29 PM

OK, the Hillary shill is back!

See Ambinder already giving Hillary the popular vote win before the polls are closed....

Posted by Fire Ambinder | March 4, 2008 7:30 PM

Vermont has 15 pledged delegates, and they are all awarded according to the state popular vote (for the reason that fer notes).

Posted by Anonymous | March 4, 2008 7:34 PM

So in order to get that net 10-delegate margin, Obama is going to carry the VT delegates 13-2. Right.

Come on, Ambinder -- do you even spend a half second thinking about these numbers?

Posted by Jeff Larson | March 4, 2008 7:36 PM

This media charade is entertaining, in an American Idol sort of way. But the race is finished, and the powers that be are not about to allow Hillary to ruin this thing for everyone just so she can run again in 4 years. It will take a bit of time to get her to quit, perhaps, but she must be stopped. There will be blood. The fall is still No Country for Old Men, and we're not going to blow this election to satisfy the Clinton vanity. Bank on it.

Posted by TrueBlue Hussein | March 4, 2008 7:40 PM

"The fall is still No Country for Old Men"

That's already played. Give it a rest.

Posted by Knemon | March 4, 2008 11:12 PM