The Democratic race: what happens now?
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Comment Thread -- What Happens Now?
23 Apr 2008 12:13 pm
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This just keeps going. Neither Obama nor Clinton can get the nomination on pledged delgates alone. Obama is likely to maintain a slight lead in pledged delegates, though Clinton could possibly close the gap slighly in Indiana, W. Va., Puerto Rico, and Kentucky. When all votes are done, Obama will likely have a 100 or so pledged delegate lead, but nowhere neare the 2024 from pledged delegates alone. The supers will then--some albeit quite reluctantly--have to fuse the ticket. With Obama on the top, and Clinton as VP. Won't make their strongest supporters happy, but we can all see this is where it goes. In fact, if supers want to shut it down, they ought to suggest this right now.
The Clinton folks know that they have to find a way to surprise in North Carolina. No one expects them to win but if they get close (within 5%), and generate a demographic split similar to what's been seen in earlier contests, that could be the gamechanger they need.
Obama gets a steady stream of super endorsements in the next two weeks, wins Indiana and North Carolina, she drops out a few days later. She's broke, last night's $2.5m notwithstanding.
Sick! Sick! Sick! of Clinton.
Will someone please make her go away, she is destroying Obama for the general.
McCain will be the next president if someone dosen't stop her!!
Obama needs a night with his face all over the big screen behind Wolf Blitzer in order to finish this thing. That'll give the Super Delegates all they need to break his way, it'll end the nomination on an Obama victory, rather than a limp across the finish line, and Clinton will concede graciously and the party will begin uniting.
Whether than happens May 6th or June 3rd I have no idea.
The Atlantic comes to their senses and finally fires Ambinder.
Cutting off comments for a week? What are you, China?
If you can't stand the heat, Marc, stop blogging.
Fire. Ambinder. Now.
I'd like to say the supers will step in and stop the bleeding, kind of like the ending of the movie The Incredibles coming to save the day...but they're not going to.
They are going to allow the MSM to portray this as a horserace and like today with PA as some major victory for the Clintons when its no suprise (Iowa was big, GA was not for example) and not near the numbers she needed to actually try and win this thing.
In the end Obama will wearily limp to the finish line only to get his clock cleaned by a fresh and clean and untouched McCain. Not his fault really, he is up against a MSN and an establishment that dosen't want him to win and is working overtime to help prevent it, racism in America which couldn't be more evident than in the PA results, and a Democratic party that couldn't tell their arse from their elbow if it hit them in the face.
Think back to Gore, Kerry, what they have done with control of the senate etc. This isn't the party of Kennedy, Roosevelt, Jefferson and Jackson, its the gaggle of kids fighting so hard to get a cup for water from the table first that they wind up knocking over the table and spilling it all and then no one can have any. At this point, I'm mailing in my Independent registration, embarrased to be a registered Democrat.
So in the last two months we've had "huge" Clinton victories is the "key states" of Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania, a nonstop reality-show featuring such colorful characters from Obama's past as Rezko, Wright, and Ayers, and starring Hillary running around claiming that Obama is an "elitist" and is insufficiently enthusiastic about nuking Iran. And after all that, she still has no visible path to the nomination.
The Clintons' main argument seems to be to imply that Obama has trouble with "key constituencies" which seems to be a roundabout way of saying that the superdelegates should weigh white votes more than black votes, all couched in the argument of electability.
That is just not going to fly in the Democratic Party offf the twenty first century.
We're in a period similar to what happened after TX and OH. After a day or two of excitement amongst the talking heads, reality will set in that nothing has really changed.
While he didn't break into her coalition in PA, she still hasn't found a way to break into his. By Thursday afternoon or Friday morning this week, the narrative will be that she still has no path other than intra-party civil war to win.
Superdelegates are just looking for cover - an excuse to force her out of the race. When Obama wins NC by 10+ points and IA is thisclose (if not an Obama victory), the avalanche will come and the race will end.
The media continues to report that Clinton won by double digits, even though she won by 9.
This semantical digit-blather matters because the media continues to fan the flame of Clinton's futile, exasperating campaign -against Barack Obama- err... I mean -for the Presidency-.
Obama has an insurmountable lead in delegates, states won, money raised and (if you are compelled to irrationally omit official state caucus results) the popular vote. Obama has by far the momentum in accumulating super-delegates since Super Tuesday.
Clinton has won the big states, which leads to her preposterous argument that implies that Obama would not beat McCain in California and other big states (but Clinton would). Clinton has a vain hope that superdelegates will switch the direction of their momentum and decisively endorse the loser of every campaign metric. Clinton won a 9 point victory in Penn., a state the demographics of which line up right with her past successes, after she led by 19-25 points.
Meanwhile, McCain dodders around unchallenged, slowly inching up in national polls, as Clinton degrades Obama with nasty attacks based on nebulous or made-up "issues" . . . the media laps along.
Obliterate Iran? No exit strategy in Iraq? Tax policy bankrupting schools and infrastructure? Supreme Court (J.Stevens)? Teetering economy?
I am one pissed off American.
Some pundint's ask disingenuously, Why Can't Barack Close the Deal? The TRUTH OF THE MATTER, is that Barack is fighting TWO opponents, Clinton & the Republican Machine: Joe Scarborough, Pat Buchanan, Fox News and they fight a lot dirtier, louder, harder than "light"! They fight with lies, distortions, brain wash and money. Barack is doing something new and necessary, though slower because a loud voice gets a lot more attention than a sane, compassionate, low-speaking one, like Barack's. That is why he is having such a hard time. Look at the unevenness and unfairness of the last debate? The new Republican's and Clinton's talking point is why cannot Barack put it away. The answer is he is fighting a three-headed Giant, the Clintons and the Republican Machine -- it is a Giant compared to Barack and the assault goes on 24/7 starting with Morning Joe and continuing all day with Fox News! Then there are the new swift-boat TV adds and false emails, he is being blanketed with -- and then they smile to themselves and ask smugly, "Why can't he put her away? Knowing the dark answer to this question and the dark seed they hope to plant into the minds of the people who are unable to think for themselves and are influenced by fear and ignorance. But humanity's heart is opening to the light and the energy of goodwill. May be this time, we can overcome these awful forces of destruction to mankind, may be this time, so the people of Goodwill & Hope will have to do more -- whatever their intuition relays to them to do to aid Barack in this fight against the Clintons and the Republican machine!
I think we know what happens now - Clinton continues down the highway on her ego trip until the delegates (like mark says) get some stones & put a halt to this.
IMHO, a more interesting question is, "what happens after Obama secures the nomination?"
Clinton's refusal to face up to the fact that she can't win seems to be fueling the resentment of those in her camp. Will she be able to convince these people to vote for Obama & NOT McCain (she's not done too good a job of that so far)? Will she actively campaign for Obama? Does he want her to?
Thanks for finally letting us peons have our say. I honestly believed you had one of the highest ratios of good, funny, smart comments to bilious ones on the entire internets. But whatever.
I think the superdelegates are going to hurry up and make their decisions. He's going to get all the SDs he needs pretty soon. And, even if she stays in the race Huckabee style, he's going to end with his typical 60% blowout in the final two Western states, which'll be a nice coda to the primary season.
There are only 250 or so of the SDs left. He needs, what, more than 30% of them? 20% of them? He really doesn't have far to go.
My theory is that Obama is sitting on a reserve of unannounced superdelegates that grows weekly. Once he has enough pledged delegates, announced superdelegates and unannounced superdelegates to constitute a majority, he'll say that the race is over. However, he can only do this after winning somewhere (otherwise Hillary's supporters will call it elitist hijacking or something) so Oregon, Guam, or Montana primary nights seem like the likeliest end dates.
What happens now?
The primary race goes on. The candidates turn their attentions to Indiana and North Carolina. And, barring an Obama blowout in both states or a superdelegate coup, this will go on until June 3.
The Dems have two options... let the campaign continue and continue to degenerate into an increasingly negative food fight with a severely wounded candidate and divided candidate limping into the general election to face a refurbished John McCain... or...
Make a choice now and begin trying to rebuild party unity, give the nominee some time to rest and refurbish his/her campaign, replenish the campaign coffers, get out and support some of the down ticket candidates that could use some early support- and enter the general with a unified party and only slightly wounded candidate.
Given the astonishing lack of willingness to show some leadership by stepping forward and making a choice between two good potential nominees, the (not so) super delegates will dither until the damage is done and the party split. Not only will that hurt the eventual nominee, but the down ticket races as well.
It would really be nice if the "uncommitted" party leaders would lead, instead of trying to look like party sages, and voice a choice.
Hu Jintao reenabled comments on his blog too.
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!
After Indiana and North Carolina, no matter who wins (unless Clinton blows Obama away in both, which will not occur) then someone (i.e. Gore, Edwards and Dean) show Momma the door.
After all her breaks, she still can't close the deal, either. Marc made a comment earlier about Obama getting all this press love in PA, but seriously-- was the ABC debate and the recent media hype surrouding his SanFran fundraiser comments media love? No way, Jose (or Marc). Obama weathered a huge storm of bad news and still cut the huge Clinton lead down to 9. That's impressive. Sure, Clinton won, and she did so on the backs of the old creaky PA electorate.
I wish the media would start saying that Clinton is the candidate of the elderly and of women. If Obama gets tagged as the rich liberals, blacks and youth candidate, then let's be honest: Hillary keeps winning these big states solely because of white women. If she were Chris Dodd, then Obama would have closed it all down by now. Women, understandably, do not want Clinton to go.
But Hillary turned her head for too long at the process, and she cannot prevail.
Drip drip of supers to Obama. The inevitable rises up again. To quote the Clintons themselves, "A win is a win."
Indiana...if he can beat here there, then she will finally get the push of the cliff that we have all been waiting for. If not it goes through June...at which point, McCain will have another month of unchallenged campaigning. Hopefully it will end then.
George
The Clinton camp spins it as "if you only count the states Hillary won, she is dominating the popular vote."
The race is exactly the same as it was, except Indiana is the new Pennsylvania. I'm not saying that makes sense as an analysis, just predicting that's the narrative that's going to emerge. This is good for Obama, since he seems to be roughly tied with Clinton in the polls there. If he campaigns well, I give him a slightly better than even chance of winning. If he wins it, Clinton drops out.
If he doesn't win, the race after May 6 will depend on the margin in NC. If Obama wins by less than 7 or 8, it gives Clinton a real boost. If he wins by more, as he probably will, nothing changes.
Clinton rarely, if ever, exceeds expectations, and therefore I don't think we're going to see any big shifts in North Carolina. That's Obama's state, and it will stay that way. She'll need to go there and press to make sure her people turn out to prevent an Obama win of 15 or 20%.
Indiana will be close, but I think Obama should pull it out and end the race right there. You can bet that he'll spend her into the ground there, and that he'll trot out as many superdelegates as possible before primary day.
At some point, I expect the hopelessness of Clinton's campaign will seep down to the voters. Clinton has done about as well as she can do in convincing the media that she has a real chance, but that can't last forever, not when she continues to fail to make significant progress on pledged dels or superdels.
My prediction:
NC - Obama by 11%
IN - Obama by 2%
(The real question is why does Obama have to answer any questions at this point... SHE's the one who has to move mountains to get the nomination. SHE's the one who needs to win basically everywhere by huge margins. He can coast to the nomination. I hope he knocks her out on May 6th for the good of the party, but he by no means has to do so to be the nominee.)
The Clinton campaign will limp along for the next few weeks, short on cash, behind in the polls and with just about no chance to win until the 5/20 primaries. Along the way, more supers will declare for Obama. On May 20th, Obama will pass the 50%+1 point for pledged delegates, Clinton's trickle of money will dry up and she'll be forced to suspend her campaign.
Obama knocks her out May 6th and the Democratic party can sing ding dong the witch is dead. Then I will suggest that they burn the body just to make sure she is dead.
And Obama becomes President and finally a great presidency is born and finally we can rest this country from the fanatical right.
Clinton goes even more negative on Obama, and she continues to jump the shark with more batshit crazy comments about going nuclear to defend an already-nuclear-armed Israel. This prompts superdels to come forward for Obama student than they otherwise would have, in order to hasten the inevitable & quell the intraparty war in the run-up to November. Clinton stalwarts go ballistic & begin screaming about counting every vote (MI & FL), suggesting that they (like Gore in 2000) are being robbed of what's rightfully theirs. When November finally rolls around, some of the diehard Clintonistas vote McCain, but most of those hard cores stay home, handing the election to McCain. John Paul Stevens retires, and speculation about how much longer Ginsburg can stay on abounds. The makeup of the Supreme Court threatens to go 7-2 for generations to come. Needless to say, Roe is overturned.
Marc,
My question is.. why do they keep asking why Obama can't close the deal?
A better question is, why can't Hillary?
She's got the name recognition, the 'experience', a former first lady.. she should be KILLING it in delegates.. this shouldn't even be an issue?
Additionally, she should have beat Obama by at least 20 points in Penn.
To answer your question, however, she will continue to drag this out because she wants to change the rules that she originally agreed to because it's 'her turn'.
Simple as that.
Grow some balls Ambinder! Turning off comments you wuss! Wahhhhhh people are mean in the comments!
What happens? The supers come to their senses and realize that Hillary's own argument for her candidacy is the one that sinks it: experience. If this is really the metric that she wants to be judged by, then she loses to McCain, hands down. He's been a Washington player for decades, not six years. Plus, he's a genuine war hero, not a craven fabulist who invented the threat of gunfire to enhance her credentials.
Barack Obama challenges Hillary Clinton to a paintball duel. Obama picks Claire McCaskill as his second; Clinton picks Ed Rendell. The appointed time is April 29th, high noon, in the middle of a mostly deserted Indianapolis Motor Speedway, with only the superdelegates in attendance. Clinton wins the toss, and takes aim at Obama's chest. She fires, but the pellet misses him by a few feet. Obama points his gun into the air, and with a mischievous grin, deliberately misses his shot. Clinton growls and takes aim again, this time at his crotch. The pellet zooms between his legs. Obama aims at her foot and shoots. The pellet misses it by an inch, spraying paint up her leg. She is dirtied, but still in it.
Al Gore descends from the stands and announces that they will both take the next shot at the same time. Obama and Clinton both aim dead center, and the gunshots are deafening. Obama has a large pink stain on upper-left shoulder, but Clinton's entire torso is caked in paint. The superdelegates assemble in a circle and ritualistically sacrifice a lamb. The pour the blood in a cup and offer it to Obama. He sips carefully, and everyone erupts in cheers.
The next morning, the remaining superdelegates all announce support for Obama. He immediately gains 10 points in the polls against McCain. Clinton gives a gracious concession speech, and the following month becomes Senate Majority Leader. Her and her family blow their multi-million dollar savings on a series of luxury vacations, where they all reminisce joyfully about the 8 years they spent living in the White House and running the country. Chelsea decides to become a space tourist, blowing a chunk of her hedge fund earnings. Obama wins the election in a landslide, and is remembered greatly for his beautiful speech on global warming and environmentalism, which influences the public to support several sweeping legislative bills.
Obama gets a needed narrow victory in Indiana 52-48, and a typical southern victory in NC 58-42. This combined with a drip, drip drip of superdelegates to his side helps stop the flow of cash to clinton. Obama secures enough pledged and super delegates by Oregon to gain the nomination outright.
McCain wins in November.
Congratulations Democrats, another losing presidential election in the bag.
Obama will win NC & IN. The only states left that Hillary can assuredly win are KY and WV. They won't be near enough to overcome his lead.
According to Obama's leaked spreadsheet this will be over on May 6th. They have been accurate with their spreadsheet predictions from the beginning.
I'm looking forward to detoxing on May 7th.
1) HRC has a money surge over the next week or two, but is exceeded by Obama's loyal small (and pumped/pissed) donors during the same period.
2) In Indiana, Obama brings in a ton of Red/Purple State surrogates/Supers, pours money into positive TV, comes after Bush/McCain on the stump, people realize (again) why they like him. He barely edges HRC out, then gives a stirring speech in Indianapolis at the same site where RFK spoke on the night of MLK's assassination.
3) In North Carolina, Obama cruises despite possible Edwards endorsement of HRC. I have had several conversations with staffers on the ground there who, while tight-lipped, are VERY confident and are working their asses off. These staffers are ones who performed well in earlier states and were kept on by the campaign.
4) By this time, Obama has erased any gains HRC received from PA. There's less reason to doubt Obama's ability to close the deal (among undecided Supers), or to talk about such possible doubts (among the MSM). The contests won, pledgee delegates, and popular vote margins remain insurmountable. More Supers are rolled out by Obama.
5) HRC has a decision to make. If she stays in, she still likely wins KY and WV. Obama wins OR, MN, SD, Guam, and Puerto Rico.
6) If any undecided Supers remain, they make up their minds by the end of June.
3 scenarios
1) Supers flock to Obama over the next 2 weeks. He squeaks out a victory in Indiana and wins +10 or more in NC. Clinton drops out.
2) Supers are weak. No movement. They split Indiana & NC keeping their coalitions. It goes on through June 3 and possibly to the convention. Both candidates incur more damage.
3) Supers flock to Clinton. She wins Indiana & NC. Stays in to the convention. Floor fight. Hate fest continues.
In order of likelihood, I would rank them #2, #1, & #3. I think #2 & #3 effectively hand over the general election to John McCain.
Just to add, I agree with all the comments that it's really bizarre that the media keeps buying the Clinton spin about "expectations". Obama has to do this, has to win this state by that many points, has to closse the gap with these demographics, etc. Obama doesn't have to do anything. He competes in every state, does as well as he can, and will end up with more delegates and the nomination.
Tapper jumped in yesterday, asking why Obama can't win Pennsylvania. What an idiotic question. He didn't win Pennsylvania because more Pennsylvania Democrats prefer Clinton. But most other states prefer Obama. And you don't have to win every state to win a national election. You'd think a political reporter would be able to grasp that.
Unsure. Maybe it comes out that Hillary Clinton eats babies. The media commentary becomes "Obama just holds babies. Why can't Obama close the deal and eat a few? It's just more proof that Obama doesn't have what it takes to be president."
What happens now? I think I told you how this whole thing would play out 8 weeks ago before Hillary had her triumphant "Dewey Defeats Truman" moment in Ohio. And frankly, I've been right on ever since, and expect to be right on through June 3 and the convention.
The best thing to come out of last nights stunning and unexpected Hillary win is the fact that a large majority of people now realize that:
1) she can not conceivably win the most pledged delegates because of the ridiculous caucus system
2) she likely won't win the popular vote since Howard Dean continues to unabashedly laugh in the face of common, decent democracy by not fully seating Michigan and Florida for Hillary.
These realities, combined with her very high negatives (untrustworthy, declining national polls, etc.) show she really has no where to go but UP. On the flipside, Obama with all his high margin wins, delegates, popularity and bundles of cash has no where to go but down.
If you want to win in October, you need momentum. Obama has peaked and has flatlined. The only way to get this momentum is in a thrilling comeback coup by state elders/party faithful - the automatic delegates know this, and I expect them to begin her coronation at the convention.
Clinton hangs in there waiting for something to come out of the rezko mess. Even though the national press hasn't given it much press recently many people in Chicago feel that unfortunately there is probably more dirt in there for Obama.
Clinton continues to play Tonya Harding, relying on her paid surrogates and unpaid pundits (Scarborough, Buchanan, Blitzer) to kneecap Obama... doing enough damage to guarantee McCain a win in November so that she can run in 2012.
Obama will lock up the delegate count here in Oregon but I genuinely wish our May vote was irrelevant in the presidential nominating race.
Finally, a note to "idiotic:" having read your post, your signature is redundant.
9.2% is not double digits. Marc, why can't the media get that one right?
Now, the proud citizens of Guam will finally have their voices heard. Elsewhere in the country, Clinton continues to make the "why can't he win big states?" argument. If Obama can counterpunch that deftly, lose by less than 10% (or squeak a win) in Indiana, and win big in NC, and get some of the superdelegates off the fence, he has it wrapped up.
It depends what is mean by "happen."
Obama has the nomination wrapped up. It is mathematically impossible for Clinton to win the popular vote or pledged delegate count and a major of superdelegates are not going to overturn that metric regardless of the arguments she puts forward. This has been the case for months now and it hasn't changed since the end of February.
From a public relations standpoint, what happens is much murkier. There is no question that Obama will be the nominee, but the media and much of America seems to be seeking some kind of definite closure on the issue that won't come from simply edging out Clinton with math. He really wants to finally land a knockout blow on her and it looks like Indiana is his best chance. If he can swamp her in spending again, I think his odds of beating her there are quite good.
9 more contests do they keep going.
So far this primary season dems have seen record nubmers of voters register as dems, record numbers of dems voting and tons of new people getting involved. Gotta love it.
PA was hilary's last stand to make an impact...
she has been trying to get a narrative going about why obama cannot win the big states... i think that is a flawed question because in that same token ppl should then turn around and ask her why is she losing the delegate race?
i think indiana is much more important to her as a must-win state...if she loses, she's out... the metrics will be totally against her in every way that matters
Obama clinches after June 3. Hillary is not the VP. We go on to a general election campaign.
If Hillary wins Indiana--and, that is very possible--then, we really are looking at "math at its fullest." The very important math of "pledged and super delegates" is a significant branch of math; and, as we move toward fall, learning the "electoral math path" to the White House becomes unavoidable and very significant. If Hillary wins Indiana, we will all take part in geography lessons as we look at the map of states won in the primary--and, calculate the probability of winning electoral votes in which states in the fall. (By the way: Florida and Michigan are on that map--their popular and electoral votes add up.)
I agree with the general consensus here. Indiana is really the only competitive primary left and if Obama doesn't win there, this will just go to the end. And at the end Obama will probably only need about 100 more supers to support which is about a 1/3 of them out there (seems like Pelosi's coattails should be long enough for that).
Let me add that this campaign has shown that there is no momentum between contests and that neither candidate has shown any real ability to eat into each other's base, so I can't imagine that this result in Penn. will have any real effect going forward apart from the fact that it gets Clinton some cash.
What happens now?
More kids get killed in Iraq.
More people lose their jobs.
More houses get foreclosed.
And the stupor-delegates played on.
Here's my theory as long as we are talking trash. From here on out, Hillary will clobber Obama with the older voters, who let's face it, are more reliable than the college vote. Most of these voters were young during the 60's and most of us hate the 60's. It might have been prudent for Obama to tie his future to radicals in Chicago to win in Illinois, but it's just killing him nationally. The bloom came off the rose with Wright and is continuing with his other Chicago homies. To older voters, it difficult to get past Hil would be smart to keep poking those stories in people's face and Obama would do well to come up with some serious answers to put it to rest.
The Obama campaign needs to escape the standard how-to-counter-kitchen-sinking (Swift-Boating) advice. It's a trap...that is, Obama needs to stop feeling he can't ignore negative stuff. He not only can and but he must, especially when it's from Clinton. He can say, "There she goes again." He can develop some other standard, quick repostes which will show that he KNOWS better than to allow her attacks to distract from the important issues. He CAN accuse her of playing to the lowest common denominator. He CAN address media questioners the same way. He can tell them they are they going for cheap shots which are NOT in the interests of hte country.
If he plans to focus on McCain on the issues as I think someone suggested he did, this is a good thing, a much more fruitful road to take.
Kitchen sink (swiftboating)tactics get somewhere for a number of reasons, but among the most powerful is the fact that people are looking for an excuse to confirm their prejudices. Kitchen sink-ing (swift-boating)gives it to them. Once the swift-boating tactics have been used, there are some voters you shouldn't bother trying to work with. Even the candidate's own anger won't do much to change their minds. It's enough to make clear you don't accept the swift-boating and then to move on to the real issues FAST.
REad a book called "Mistakes Were Made (but not by me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts)" by Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson (Harcourt).
What happens:
First, punditocracy (including you Marc) realize the issues about "closing the deal," about outspending and losing, about not having the white blue collar voters are all a canard sold by Clinton campaign. 1. I find it humorous that the implication is Clinton should win because she is still in the race and he hasn't closed the deal. Please someone explain why the trailing candidate should win in this scenario? 2. outspending. So what. Ad buys are marginal and move a few % points. Voters are not that gullible. And nonsense about favorable media in weeks leading up to PA? Please... 3/ White blue collar voters. Why can't we say Clinton cannot win the Black vote and therefore can't win in November? The primaries show that. That is the most loyal component of the democratic party yet she has lost that.
What happens. Continued silliness, media running to and fro for 2 weeks with Obama beating her in IN by 2 points and NC by 10. clinton suspends campaign.
By November - a tarnished Clinton legacy is the unfortunate side effect of this race but a self-inflicted wound.
Please, God, let Obama win IN!!! I'm cautious with that statement as it's a very conservative state. Still, it is a neighbor of IL, allowing for a tide of volunteers to hit the state from Chicago in the next two weeks. Clinton may have Bayh but Roemer was an early Obama supporter. I'm also wondering if Obama will play up his close relationship with Lugar.
I'm also infuriated by MSM's psychobabble about Obama not closing in PA, despite all that cash. For heaven's sake, he had to play against a major Dem machine! Moreover, does anyone believe that, if HRC wasn't broke, she'd not have spent at least as much against Obama? PA would have looked like Gettysburg Redux.
Hopefully, others are right and, should Obama win NC and IN, the superdelegates will come through the gates. Clinton will not be stopped. Like a mad pit bull, she'll have to be locked up or put down. It will be her own Dog Day Afternoon, crying "Florida! Michigan!"
Ugly, uglier, ugliest. That's how it continues. Now that she won Pa. by turning into a Republican, there is nothing to hold Hillary back. And Obama will hit her just as hard, if only to show the Supers that if they don't intervene the two will destroy each other and take down the party. Obama needs to rout in NC and win in Ind. He can't back into the nomination. He needs a really big night for things to break his way. Then if the Supers don't get off their asses, they might as well switch parties, because the Dems will be done for a while.
I think the most likely outcome is that by June 4 Obama will have both the pledged delegates and the popular vote lead. Florida may be counted, by Michigan never will for obvious reasons, and so Hillary will be behind. The question then before the superdelegates is who do we choose? I think they will move to one candidate almost immediately after the contest is over because they need the summer to define McCain as representing 4 more years of Bush. They will choose Obama, barring some unforeseen mishap, because he has the strongest claim to the throne so to speak. Both candidates have strong bases of support, and both are smart, capable candidates, whose elections would be historic if only for what they symbolize. In all likelyhood, there will be plenty of hurt feelings when all is said and done, but if the supers overturned the clear, albeit narrow, will of the people, the democratic party would collapse, snatching certain victory from its own mouth once again. African Americans are the most loyal of all the party's ethnic/cultural groups, and they have been dreaming of voting for a Black candidate for years. That that chance would be taken from them by the party's largely white elite would be a colossal slap in the face that would depress their turnout in the general, and perhaps even drive some of them away. Furthermore, Obama's incredible success in engaging young voters will pay dividends well into the future for the party. But those gains would be wiped away if he is pushed out by the supers while holding the lead by every metric. Young people are easily turned off by politics, especially the politics of their overly combative and divisive boomer parents, and that is why Obama's more inclusive and uplifting rhetoric is so appealing to them. He is the future of the party, and the party bosses would be loath to destroy their future just to sate the narcisistic wants of politics' most self-indulgent couple.
It seems pretty clear that the media narrative will focus on Indiana as the next major battleground. North Carolina will probably only get attention if she manages to do better there than expected, which means holding him to single digits, I would imagine.
It also seems clear that Clinton will not drop out of the race unless Obama reaches 2024 delegates. If Obama manages to win Indiana, I expect the media narrative may turn against her to some extent, and there may be increased pressure on her to leave the race, but if superdelegates decide collectively to wait until after the final primaries in June to decide, then I don't believe the race will end until then.
So, it seems more likely than not that the campaigns will continue at least into June. If the superdelegates decide for Obama, that may come before July 1st, as Dean would like. If some new political gaffe or scandal occurs, or Obama underperforms enough that superdelegates do not decide to end the race in his favor, I expect that there is little chance they would end the race in her favor in June, since that would seem to be such a clear repudiation of the "popular vote", even if Clinton is leading in one of the counts thereof. So I think he can win in June, but her only path leads through the convention.
A big open question at this point, to me, is how negative will this contest get? Will he get more negative, as some in the media predicted this morning? They are already pushing the line on this with some of the "contrast" ads and direct mailing pieces, but there is a huge risk there of basically invalidating the foundation of his campaign's message by getting too negative. As an Obama supporter who is strongly against this kind of politics, I hope his campaign can resist the urge.
I think that Hillary needs to decide what she wants for her political future. Does she want to kamikaze it in this campaign, going for all or nothing? Or does she blink and bow out gracefully? I think she still has time to do so, with the shameful moments of her campaign getting swept under the rug as history moves on. If Obama can win Indiana, that's a clear opportunity for her to leave, as would be once the superdelegates finally show some guts and make their votes known. If Hillary pulls out, she can still go on to serve in the Senate, possibly become governor of New York, and even possibly run again.
If she continues on to the convention, she is truly sealing her fate and making her conduct during this campaign her legacy. She'll be providing justification to all those who were weary of the Clintons since the Clinton justification, whether they were right then or not. She'll go down in history as the woman who played the referees and did her best to go against the will of the people and take down the first serious minority candidate with underhanded tactics. I hope that she'll choose to preserve the legacy of her and herself husband, rather than go for the extremely unlikely path to victory.
I still feel like she will ultimately concede. She has given herself a couple of outs, with talk of how she's waiting until the issues of Florida and Michigan get decided. Still, with the way she's played this game lately, I'm not betting on anything.
What nobody, nobody seems to be addressing is what paths are open to Clinton to become president. I keep looking at this and I can't see it. Marc you commented on the campaign hurting Obama--it has surely annihilated Clinton. Her negatives were high enough before the campaign; they are stratospheric now (about 60%). Meanwhile Obama keeps hoovering up the delegates--can the party really turn around and hand Clinton the nomination. I can't see it. The story is that HRC is making no headway. It is time for the superdelegates to do their job.
A few things are certain for me, personally:
1. I have stopped donating to the DNC. Dean's apparent incompetence in getting the party out of this current mess, the Florida/Michigan situation that he should have seen coming, and his (public) lack of effort to get the supers to commit is infuriating to those of us who care deeply about the party.
2. I no longer identify as a democrat, but as an independent, and will switch my position after the primary here in NC. See above for an explanation. And this is coming from someone who has voted the straight ticket before.
3. While I won't vote for McCain, I not sure I can get myself to vote for Clinton either. It will take a lot of convincing.
There have also been incredible ripple effects from this. At least in my profession, the women's listserves have been torn apart by charges of sexism and racism, and whatever was left of the feminist "movement" has collapsed as each side accuses the other of "not being a feminist."
I wonder if the democratic party realizes that while this fight goes on, their grassroots coalitions are collapsing around them. Even if obama/clinton is able to rally the other's supporters around them to hold their noses and help elect them, will the coalitions reform in time to support progressive policies from a new administration? Or will we remain too "bitter" at the others side, creating permanent old/new splits?
I don't see Clinton dropping out as long as she has money, which a win by Obama in Indiana and North Carolina would squash.
One thing I think is somewhat funny in the media coverage and narrative so far is that Obama is viewed by his supporters as some type of messianic figure. "Drinking the kool-aid" is a phrase I hope I never hear again after this primary is over.
However, Clinton's argument to superdelegates is "he can't win". Some of her campaign have stated this is the reason that she perserveres. Somehow the voters have been suckered and Hillary Clinton is the only one who can save the party from itself. This sounds far more like someone with a messiah complex than Obama has.
Obama has won despite the fact that the party primary base is 58% women. Yes! 58% women. Despite this fact he is the leading on all fronts. That is the hard cold truth in this. Women vote for HRC. White men and Black for Obama.
They have identical positions on everything. So it comes down to this. However there is stark differences between Obama v McCain which can be made. Hence why the Dem nominee has the upper hand. Hence also why HRC is dogged not to lose.
Wow, an actual Ambinder thread open for comments and my personal ban is over too.
In fairness to Ambinder, he seems to be being a little more careful lately to show balance and objectivity. And I'm not saying that to avoid another ban; if he was still being an ass, I'd say so.
That being said, on topic. I'm a pessimist. Here goes:
(1) No way it ends before June.
(2) In June, barring a dramatic shift in the narrative, the suppers declare, and Obama goes over the 2024 delegates he needs to win without Michigan and Florida. He does not, however, go over the 2207 he would need with Florida and Michigan.
(3) Clinton decides to keep fighting for the Michigan and Florida delegates till the convention.
(4) Clinton loses the credentials fight at the convention, and Obama wins the nomination.
(5) Obama goes into September with a double digit deficit to McCain, mainly because of the damaging convention fight.
Can Obama come back to win in November despite all of that? Maybe. He has several things in his favor, including fundamentals, McCain's weakness as a campaigner, and so on. He could do it. Though his chances would be a heck of a lot better if he can somehow end it in June.
After June 3 Obama is ahead by every metric except popular vote counting Florida and Michigan. The arguments for counting Michigan, now mostly confined to pro-Hillary blogs, are taken up by the mainstream media and debated exhaustively until the convention.
What nobody, nobody seems to be addressing is what paths are open to Clinton to become president. I keep looking at this and I can't see it.
There are two paths.
1) A real scandal of some kind for Obama.
But you have to think if there were real dirt, Clinton's people would have found it by now, and instead they've been leaning on Wright and "bitter."
2) She wins the popular vote by some metric that most Democratic voters consider legitimate.
I don't think the popular vote is a legitimate metric at all, let alone one that includes Florida or Michigan--but that's irrelevant. In fact, any argument among commenters on the Atlantic blogs about what "legitimate" means is irrelevant. What matters is how the majority of Democrats view Hillary's claim to a popular vote victory. If her claim is viewed favorably, the superdelegates might give her the nomination.
Even scenario 2) is unlikely. A popular vote count Michigan is never going to appear legitimate to a majority of Democrats. Her win in Pennsylvania was bigger than I'd hoped, but not big enough to give her a realistic shot of closing the popular vote gap even including Florida. And even if she did close that gap, it's not clear the superdelegates would support her in the numbers she would need.
Of course, either of these scenarios would depress black and youth turnout in the general election. I don't think it's possible to predict how much, but it undermines any argument for her greater electability.
One point regarding Florida and Michigan - if they do end up being seated (unlikely) the nomination may come down to the Michigan uncommitted delegates and Edwards few delegates (this is close to Hilary's BEST case scenario, which is why her chances are so low & probably lower today that Monday).
Does anyone have any reliable information about the Michigan undeclared delegates? Have they been selected? If so, upon what basis?
If Obama gets those delegates, the math all of the sudden looks even better for him in the "Florida and Michigan delegates seated" scenario.
Basically, right now Obama needs the following delegates (of any type, pledged or super) under the following assumptions:
Michigan/Florida not seated: 312
Michigan/Florida seated, uncommited delegates truely uncommitted: 418
Michigan/Florida seated, Obama gets the Michigan uncommitted delegates: 363
Obviously the numbers are much worse for Hillary under any of those scenarios.
Mary,
I think you are right about the internal shredding of the Democratic party. I also think McCain would be savvy at this point to wait out this fight before making any moves. It is quite possible that he would want to pitch his election bid to the losers in the primary battle. If the primary winner is Obama, he gets to pitch himself as a war-hero, tough-talking, in your face sort of guy, but one who would take a balanced stand on issues of import to women and the elderly. Expect someone in the mold of Susan Collins or Olympia Snow on the ticket. If the primary winner is Clinton, McCain gets what he really wants, the opportunity to boot the pesky nut-jobs out of his party by appealing across dissolving party lines to minorities and socially liberal (and often economically moderate) elites. He'd have to pick up a figure for VP who appeals to both groups. And, while I think it is a remote possibility, here is the chance at a multi-generational political realignment, the Republican party becoming slightly more economically moderate and realist and significantly more socially liberal, and the Democratic party becoming a coalition of economic populists and social conservatives. Quite frankly, in such a shift, I'd happily move to the party of Lincoln.
I hate to say it, but there is one "X" factor here that Clinton may be relying upon.
As it stands now, one of the biggest electability issues favoring Obama is that he is the only candidate who can lock down the nomination in June, and that a convention fight will be incredibly damaging to the party.
If Clinton can, though, credibly keep the fight going to the convention, Obama loses that particular argument. I happen to think that Obama still should easily win any electability argument, but I guess Hillary thinks that, if she can drag it out that far, her chances of winning the electability argument with the supers improves.
Of course, while one can see why she would continue to fight on under those circumstances, her supporter's motivations are different. Or should be.
For now, continuation of the status quo. Clinton continues to attack the de facto Democratic nominee. The media and the voters continue to act like she has some chance of winning.
Here are the variables:
1. When Clinton runs out of money.
2. The outcome of IN, and Obama's margin in NC.
I predict that the Clinton campaign is gonna be flat broke on or about May 7. That alone might force an end to this thing.
I'm also predicting Obama will will do better than expected in both IN and NC, completely wiping out her gains in PA.
The superdelegates start moving en masse after that. Maybe not those representing the few states who haven't voted, but the rest of them just won't have any reason to sit on the sidelines anymore. Obama should control enough delegates that FL and MI won't matter.
Clinton may or may not "take it to the convention". I honestly don't know whether she'd commit political suicide for one final, slim, desperate chance at the Presidency.
Back on 4/3 Rassmussen gave Obama a 23 point lead in North Carolina. So, using the logic of Obama supporters, anything less than a commanding primary victory by Obama of at least 20 points is really a Clinton victory.
Through 4/21, SurveyUSA gives Obama a slim 9 point lead.
So, really, Hillary has already won North Carolina (using Obama supporters' logic). Not really any need to vote there at all now.
How does this play out? Just as we would expect by demographics. Hill wins a moral victory - per Obama supporters' logic - in North Carolina. Hill wins Indiana by a very narrow margin, crushing Obama's spirit (who has already conceded that Indiana is virtually a must-win for him). All other primaries go the way that demographics would predict.
Hillary ends up with about 100 fewer pledged delegates than Obama. The RBC seats the FL superdelegates, recognizing that Dean imposed an illegal penalty per DNC charter, and further increasing Hill's advantage amongst superDs. All of those superDs are rabid Hillary supporters because she's the only one fighting for their voices to be heard. The MI and FL delegations are seated at half strength by either the credentials committee or all of the delegates at convention, because they recognize that the Dems have zero chance of winning unless they take one of those two states in the general. Hill therefore wins the popular vote once those two states are included. Her delegate disadvantage at that point is miniscule, not enough to sway any superDs with the silly 'overruling the will of the people' argument.
That test vote (seating MI and FL at half-strength) also shows that Hillary may well win enough votes to secure the nomination. So furious negotiations begin and we get: Clinton/Obama (he sees the light!) or Gore/? as the nominee. Clinton will refuse the VP spot (she's too old) and will instead use her considerable power as a Senator to muck things up for the Democrats in congress.
As we knew two months ago, and know today, it all comes down to the superDs. I don't believe they yet know everything they need to know to make a fair call, so the remaining primaries need to play out before they commit.
I disagree with may of the arguments posed here today (per Protein Wisdom):
Voters are tired of the campaign? "Voters in Pennsylvania were so tired of the campaign that they turned out in record numbers to prolong it."
Hillary is hurting the party? "Democrats are evenly split on the question of whether the long campaign is hurting the party."
Hillary should drop out? "No candidate who has won as many votes and delegates as Clinton hasn’t taken the fight to the convention."
Clinton's negative attacks are hurting her? "There is no evidence that the tightening of the race was due to Clinton’s campaign tactics. We saw the same pattern in Ohio."
Once voters see Obama the races tighten? PA ended up just the way we thought it would based on the demographics of the state. Obama would appear to be a crappy campaigner. He gave PA his best shot and he didn't move the needle a bit; demographics ruled the day.
Only in the United States could the losing candidate pretend she can win the nomination after most of the game is played by being a racist(come one we all know what she is doing) and lying about stances about issues. How many honest and trustworthy things are there left about Hillary Clinton at this point? But in country where an incompetent boob can be selected and reelected, the loser can win and expect US morons all over the country to vote for her.
She's gonna steal the nomination and hopefully millions of Americans like myself will vote for John McCain because he has the experience she lies about and she will not get one young voter or African American to vote for her.
BTW I'm a 48 year old white woman who has had enough of this soap opera. Only in America.
Hillary's gonna run out of money?
"By the end of today, the Hillary campaign will have raised $10 million since she was declared winner yesterday."
'Nuff said.
I hate to engage in this, but @ sbj:
"By the end of today, the Hillary campaign will have raised $10 million since she was declared winner yesterday."
Oh, hooray! Maybe she can pay off Mark Penn now.
After skimming the above, it seems to me a lot of people just don't get the Democratic nominating process. It's a close race and anything can still happen, it's all up to the superdelegates. And now they're going to hang back and wait; they can keep changing their minds up until August and that's probably for the best. We need the stronger candidate and my guess is that we’re going to the convention.
By the way, to all the people bemoaning the lack of Democratic leadership, the fact that superdelegates aren't taking charge, that they've done nothing in Congress, etc: how about giving Hillary Clinton a chance? You want a tough leader? Someone with balls and grit? She's obviously your girl. Otherwise it's just more of the same.
Clinton also won a few other key demographics: The Haters, the racists and the bigots. Those are groups she cannot win without!
Somehow we'll all get over PA and move on. Though I gotta' tell ya'....I'm really tired of this. Dana Milbank's column got it right today, "Somebody, please make it stop."
If the pundits would stop talking as though being a dirty, negative campaigner is a good thing and shows how "tough" you are; and if they'd stop showing all the negative ads and gaffe's over and over again. If they'd stop repeating the slurs as though they were insight instead of the crummy tacatics that they are; and if just one pundit would ask Clinton what the definition of "obliterate" is, maybe, just maybe, we'd have a chance.
Uh, sbj, you do realize that Rasmussen and SurveyUSA are separate polling companies, right? SurveyUSA has always had Obama's North Carolina lead at around around 10 points - other polling companies differ. PPP has consistently had his lead at around 20 points, for instance. What's interesting is that whenever Obama has a commanding lead in a state, Hillary rarely, if ever, manages to narrow it.
1. Obama wins NC easily, loses Indiana by 3-5%.
2. Clinton(s) keeps running until the convention, or at least to the conclusion of all primaries.
3. By a small margin of super-delegates, Obama gets the nomination.
4. Hillary supports Obama, sort-of, but cannot undo the damage she has inflicted or the disgruntlement of her supporters.
5. Obama's vulnerabilities, both highlighted and validated by a member of his own party, cause him to lose by a modest margin to John McCain.
6. The Clintons blame everyone but themselves and gear up to run again in 2012.
6. A perfect opportunity for Democrats sacrificed to the Clintons' self-absorbtion.
Funny old world isn't it. The fact that SD's can even consider to go for HRC when the most loyal voting bloc in the party has been Blacks. Despite the fact that Dems have never won the majority of the White vote.
To do so would be to allow McCain to position himself as a social liberal conservative and change the party equation for the first time since 40 years. Thats how bad it is now.
There is a lot wrong with sbj's post; it does, though , provide the most likely (albeit very, very long shot) scenario for a Clinton win. But in a thread already this long, I'll mostly leave it to others to debunk his post. (I will note that the kind of very pro Hillary assumptions that he makes about the remaining primaries would, mathematically, leave Obama with a slightly larger lead going into the convention than he posits. More like a 114 pledged delegate lead, rather than 100, and that assumes Clinton not only winning Indiana and getting within 9 points in NC, but also winning WV, Kentucky and PR by absolutely HUGE margins (30%). That really shows just how bad the delegate math is for Hilalry at this point).
But you know what I noticed about the "arguments" that he purports to rebut? Yeah, I'm sure most of you saw it too. He misses entirely the strongest pro-Obama arguments out there, including the argument that letting this go to the convention would BADLY damage the Democrat's chances in November.
The reason you don't see many Hillary supporters taking that argument on is because it is terribly, terribly strong. Oh, sure, you see some Clintonites asserting that it isn't true, but never with evidence or analysis. Whether we look at history, logic or both, a vicious convention fight, whoever wins, does not bode well for the Democrats in November.
And that's a big reason why it is likely that the supers will try to end this thing in June, in Obama's favor, if the dynamics of the race don't change dramatically. Whether they can succeed at this, given Hillary's plans to fight to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates.
But really, bottom line, in order to get to a Hillar
Clinton wins Indiana by two points, Obama wins NC by 10-15 and this thing goes on and on and on and on until the uncommitted super delegates grow some balls.
Posted by mark | April 23, 2008 12:25 PM