Does Obama Have A Catholic Problem?

"Amazingly oversimplistic."

Indeed, my mention of Obama's "Catholic problem" caused immediate cranial vasodilation in Chicago today, and so I've decided to explore the topic a little further.

The raw exit polling is quite clear: Hillary Clinton does better among voters who say they are Catholic than Barack Obama.

But a point raised by the Obama campaign is valid.

There is nothing inherent in being Catholic that pushes a Democrat or independent to either candidate. Indeed, there is a correlation in states above the Mason-Dixon line between white, working class voters and the Roman Catholic religion. It is therefore unsurprising that Clinton does better among Catholics. Indeed, one could project Clinton's performance level among Catholics simply by looking at socioeconomic variables.

Does this force work bidirectionally? What identity claim most impacts a vote? Socioeconomic? Or religious?

The evidence, so far, is that religion plays less a role than economics.

The data appears to show that the demogrpahic groups that Obama has the most trouble with are disproportionately Catholic; the groups that form Obama's base are disproportionately not Catholic. (Obama won Catholics in Vermont; he lost them in Rhode Island. Catholicism in those two states is not all that different.)

Now -- the perception that Obama has a Catholic problem is nothing to skip church over. One way to reach white working class voters is to engage them through their religious identity, as Obama's Catholic advisory council is doing. And, of course, the very idea that Obama has a Catholic problem becomes as poisonous as an actual Catholic problem if his campaign cannot effectively rebut the charge.

Comments

The premise should probably be this:

Catholics have a Catholic problem.

There are so many types of practicing Catholics anymore, I really find this kind of approach so outmoded it's just sad. It doesn't really serve a useful purpose until you can clearly delineate as to which strain of Catholics you are focusing on-- the ultra-right anti-gay, anti-abortion ones? the non-Pope following progressives?

Clarity would be better than generality here, Marc.

Posted by Betty in Baltimore | April 11, 2008 3:09 PM

IIRC, Kerry had a "Catholic problem" in 2004. I don't have the figures right now, but I believe he won a smaller percentage of the Catholic vote of any Democratic Presidential candidate in a long, long time. And Kerry is Catholic.

The fact is, Obama is, for all intents and purposes, the Democratic nominee. Thus, the Clinton-Obama matchup among Catholics becomes irrelevant. What is more important is the McCain-Obama matchup among Catholics. We will have to wait and see on that.

Since a big McCain supporter is Hagee who calls the Catholic church a whore, it might end up not being that big a problem.

Posted by john m | April 11, 2008 3:11 PM

And, of course, the very idea that Obama has a Catholic problem becomes as poisonous as an actual Catholic problem if his campaign cannot effectively rebut the charge.

Or, in other words, when was the last time you beat your Catholic voter?

Posted by Vermonter | April 11, 2008 3:12 PM

All young people had better step back and take a good look a whats going on,how could anyone put someone to take care of our Country with a Musilm background.I don't care what they say diferant The only thing he has going for him his personalitty,It will take you in. If you listn close you will here he copys every thing Hillary says.Back up and see what you are doing

Posted by Rickie Ward | April 11, 2008 3:49 PM

The Catholic Advisory Council released today by Sen. Obama's campaign is surprisingly deep in credible Catholic leaders, including academic stalwarts, women religious, and many individuals that have worked with the US Bishops conference for more than a decade.

McCain's Catholic outreach list seemed to composed mostly of political actors, RNC Catholic outreach volunteers and college Republicans.

I think the seriousness of this group reflects very favorably on Sen. Obama and bodes well for him in the fall match up against McCain.

Posted by David C | April 11, 2008 4:12 PM

Rickie, my man, you seem to be having problems with that computer you just now managed to set up. A hint: it tends to work better when you remember to plug your brain in. Try it, reboot, and get back to me. It may even fix your spell-check problem, too.

Posted by Joe LIsboa | April 11, 2008 4:15 PM

This article is intended to polarize Catholics away from Obama, not to study reality.

Every place that Obama campaigns, Clinton media surrogates like John King and Wolf Blitzer on CNN or Marc Armbinder pick out a rich demography and then ask these disingenuos questions. The sole intend is to condition the less intelligent Latino, White female, blue collar worker, Jewish voters and of late, Catholics.

It's like push-polling. They'll ask a rhetorical question under the pretense of 'legitimate discussion' yet in reality, they are attempting to condition your prejudices. This is the sort of 'slicing and dicing' for political exploitation that Barack refers to in his convention speech and, recently, in his courageous speech, "A More Perfect Union".

If Barack had anywhere near the scale of demographic "problems" as these Clinton-leaning bigotry-pushers often overstate, Barack would not just be trailing in the polls, but he'd have been out of the race ages ago.

That's not the case. America's wisened up to your bait. ;)

Posted by Emily | April 11, 2008 4:15 PM

As a Catholic, I can tell you that no, Obama doesn't have a "Catholic problem".

Catholicism has always confounded political labels of "liberal" and "conservative", because so did it's founder, Jesus. While the teachings of Jesus about sexual chastity mirrored his times (and would be considered conservative today), Jesus's social gospel was (and is) shockingly liberal, with an emphasis on helping one's fellow man, on the dignity of the poor, on the dangers of wealth, and on forgiving and loving one's enemy.

As a result, members of both parties (both liberal and conservative) run up against different aspects of those teachings. Given our current political divide, it would be hard (if not impossible) to find a modern politician who did have a "Catholic problem", in the sense that their views did not match up 100% with the church's teachings. But Obama's concern for the poor & disadvantaged in our society, his willingness to see his enemies as human, and desire to give peace a chance all reflect profoundly Christian/Catholic values.

Posted by Adam | April 11, 2008 4:20 PM

Doesn't look like Obama has a "Catholic problem" anymore. The impressive Obama Catholic Advisory list includes:

National Co-Chairs *

Senator Bob Casey

Representative Patrick Murphy (PA-08)

Former Congressman Tim Roemer, President of the Center for National Policy

Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas

Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia

Tom Chabolla, Assistant to the President, Service Employees International Union

Victoria Reggie Kennedy, President, Common Sense About Kids and Guns

Sr. Jamie Phelps, O.P., Director and Professor of Theology, Institute for Black Catholic Studies, Xavier University

Sr. Catherine Pinkerton, Congregation of St. Joseph

National Steering Committee *

Mary Jo Bane, Professor, Harvard Kennedy School

Nicholas P. Cafardi, Catholic Author and Scholar, Pittsburgh, PA

Lisa Cahill, Professor of Theology, Boston College

M. Shawn Copeland, Associate Professor of Theology, Boston College

Ron Cruz, Leadership Development Consultant, Burke, VA

Sharon Daly, Social Justice Advocate, Knoxville, MD

Richard Gaillardetz, Murray/Bacik Professor of Catholic Studies, University of Toledo

Grant Gallicho, Associate Editor, Commonweal Magazine

Margaret Gannon, IHM, A Sister of the Immaculate Heart of Mary, Scranton, PA

Don Guter, Judge Advocate General of the Navy (2000-2002); Rear Admiral, Judge Advocate General's Corps, U.S. Navy (Ret.), Pittsburgh, PA

Cathleen Kaveny, Professor of Law and Professor of Theology, University of Notre Dame

Jim Kesteloot, President and Executive Director, Chicago Lighthouse

Vincent Miller, Associate Professor of Theology, Georgetown University

David O'Brien, Loyola Professor of Catholic Studies at the College of the Holy Cross

Peter Quaranto, Senior Researcher and Conflict Analyst, Resolve Uganda (Notre Dame Class of 2006)

Dave Robinson, International Peace Advocate, Erie, Pennsylvania

Vincent Rougeau, Associate Professor of Law, University of Notre Dame

* Organizational Affiliations Listed for Identification Purposes Only

Posted by David C | April 11, 2008 4:32 PM

So, Marc, when faced with a deadline and nothing intelligent to post _this_ is the best you could do?
Amazingly fatuous would make a better opening line.

Posted by No_mOre_Clintons! | April 11, 2008 4:33 PM

Rickie, my man, you seem to be having problems with that computer you just now managed to set up.

"You call Rickie an illiterate fool who has little real understanding of the candidates and is making statements based upon tiny scrap of information and lots of preconceived notions. I call him my base." --Hillary Clinton

Posted by LFC | April 11, 2008 4:44 PM

What is up with this "for all intents and purposes" Obama already being nominee...

Hold your horses.

Posted by sabdra sheppard | April 11, 2008 4:57 PM

What is up with this "for all intents and purposes" Obama already being nominee...

Hold your horses.

Posted by sabdra sheppard | April 11, 2008 4:57 PM

What is up with this "for all intents and purposes" Obama already being nominee...

Hold your horses.

Posted by sabdra sheppard | April 11, 2008 4:58 PM

Catholic Catholics (not just Americans who happen to be Catholics) have always puzzled me as a political group. They're steeped in an old, traditioned religion, which would make you think they'd have a firm tie to the ideas that the church supports.

The idea has always been that they were Democratic voters just because of Kennedy, but I don't buy that. You'd think their opposition to abortion would distance them from most Democrats, but the Republicans (and certainly some Democrats) complete embrace of the death penalty, and that should be equally as repelling.

This train of thought has always just led me to view them, as has been suggest, as an economic group. Catholicism is sort of like Judaism, in the David Cross sense - "Well, you say you don't believe in the Torah, so you're not a Jew, but I ask you this: was your mother's vagina Jewish?"

Posted by socctty | April 11, 2008 5:10 PM

Dear David, I have a longer list of Catholics who oppose Obama. It is far too long to post. Their affiliation. to help identify them, is with a strong America that lives up to its international obligations, frees the oppressed, keeps the faith with those who are protecting our nation, helps crush ditators who kill tens of thousands of his own people, and they affiliate with churches that preach God's word, not racism and hatred. If good Catholics everywhere take their advice they'll send this light weight packing.

Posted by v racer | April 11, 2008 5:12 PM

In Obama’s autobiography, "Dreams From My Father," Obama mentions studying the Koran and describes the public school as "a Muslim school." In fact Obama learned to recite the Quran in the Arabic language rather than his native language (Indonesian) at the time, which is accorded the highest value and status in the mindset of Islamic fundamentalist societies.

Obama describes his new found "Christian" faith as: (1) Suspicious of dogma (2) Without any monopoly on the truth (3) Nontransferable to others (4) Infused with a big healthy dose of doubt, and (5) Indulgent of and compatible with all other religions.

On February 27th, speaking to Kristof of The New York Times, Barack Hussein Obama said the Muslim call to prayer is "one of the prettiest sounds on Earth at sunset."

In an interview with Nicholas Kristof, published in The New York Times, Obama recited the Muslim call to prayer, the Adhan, "with a first-class [Arabic] accent."

According to Islamic scholars, reciting the Shahada, the Muslim declaration of faith, makes one a Muslim. This simple yet profound statement expresses a Muslim's complete acceptance of, and total commitment to, the message of Islam. Obama chanted it with pride and finesse.

The Indonesian Times reports: "Barack Hussein Obama might have convinced some Americans that he is no longer a Muslim, but so far he has not convinced many in the world's most populous Muslim country who still see him as a Muslim and a crusader for Islam."

http://web.israelinsider.com/Articles/Politics/12745.htm

Posted by Charles Talaros | April 11, 2008 5:22 PM

Obama's problem is WHITE CHRISTIANS. Not Catholics!

Please, someone show me a national poll that says Obama does better with white Protestants than white Catholics, because I am not aware of one. The polls I have seen say that he loses to Hillary by equally wide margins with both groups. If he does worse among Catholics more generally, it's because lots of Hispanics are Catholics, and lots of blacks are Protestants.

Yes, Obama lost big in heavily Catholic states like Rhode Island and Massachusetts. He lost just as big in heavily WHITE PROTESTANT states like Arkansas, Tennessee, and Oklahoma -- and in those three states he actually did WORSE among white Protestants than among white Catholics. (Look at the exit polls!)

Yes, in the Catholic Northeast he does better with white Protestants than with white Catholics. But in the Protestant South he does worse with white Protestants. In California, where neither white Catholics nor white Protestants dominate, Obama did about equally well with both. Does that show that Obama has a Catholic problem, or that white Christians act less racist when they are the religious minority in their region? Probably neither, but more likely the second than the first, I would say.

The bottom line is that nationally, Obama does just as well with white Catholics as with white Protestants. He's losing both groups, plus Hispanics, to Clinton; he's winning the nomination because he has big margins among blacks, non-Christians (except for Jews, where he's even), and non-religious people. So enough about Obama and the Catholics!

Posted by Dave | April 11, 2008 5:24 PM

This whole blog reeks of "Rovian" politics. "Does Obama have a Catholic problem?".... sounds very similar to "What would you do if you found out that McCain has a black child?"

Posted by Janet | April 11, 2008 5:37 PM

"Indeed, my mention of Obama's "Catholic problem" caused immediate cranial vasodilation in Chicago today, and so I've decided to explore the topic a little further."

Because when Chicago says, "Jump", Marc Ambinder says, "How high?"

Posted by Petey | April 11, 2008 6:33 PM

The Indonesian Times reports: "Barack Hussein Obama might have convinced some Americans that he is no longer a Muslim, but so far he has not convinced many in the world's most populous Muslim country who still see him as a Muslim and a crusader for Islam."

Nor has he convinced most Indonesians that the Mossad was not responsible for 9/11.

Posted by Truesdell | April 11, 2008 7:10 PM

Catholics are not a monolithic group. I don't see how anyone can assume that my family will vote for Obama or Hillary. We don't run in packs. Morals will play a great part in who I choose to vote for in Nov. Of course I'm referring to morals in decisions about campaigning, attacks, twisted truth ect. I'll observe and then decide.

Posted by Jessica | April 11, 2008 7:44 PM

The 3:49 PM poster "Ricky Ward" is an imposter and not a good one. The man or woman behind the Ricky Ward moron act is not quite as stupid as he's making out -- and he's a lot less honest.

What's his game? Maybe he's trying to discourage any criticism of his real chosen candidate by casting it as evidence of the critic's idiocy. "Ricky Ward" is a puppet being used to prepare the battlefield in a corrupt, hyperpartisan troll's play.

Posted by ERF | April 11, 2008 8:58 PM

Catholics believe in salvation through works
Obama and Protestants believe in salvation through faith. Hope and change are not works.

Nice list of academics and politicians on his Catholic advisory board. That will go along way in convincing working class Catholics to vote for him.

Posted by Pope Sixtus VI | April 11, 2008 9:27 PM

Obama's main problem is that he is a racist, anti-American traitor. The man is a disgrace.

Posted by jim | April 12, 2008 9:30 PM

Quite the opposite "Pope Sixtus".... it's the Catholics who believe salvation ONLY comes through faith and disagree strongly with the Protestant view of salvation through works.

Posted by Janet | April 13, 2008 2:33 PM

Jim's post is not only ridiculous, it's slanderous. You may disagree or agree with Obama's policies (and if you're unfamiliar with them, I suggest you spend some time reading them in his website)... but the name calling and the extreme inaccuracy of the facts about Obama's history of public service and community activism is not being politically astute, it is simply a rant.

Posted by Janet | April 13, 2008 2:36 PM