The CBS News/New York Times poll out tonight is a high resolution snapshot of what the Democratic race looks like right now. The poll was taken over the weekend and on Monday and Tuesday, so some of the sample had yet to digest the full effects of Rev. Wright.
Propelling Obama forward more than any other force at this point is the expectation that he will be the nominee. When last polled by CBS and the Times, 70% of Democratic primary voters – a larger set than registered Democrats – said they thought Obama would receive the nomination. That figure, at that time, demonstrated quite nicely that contrary to claims, most Democratic primary voters could do the delegate math and were well informed about the likely course of events. That number has declined to 51% today. Presumably, those Democratic primary voters have not lost their math ability. Less than half of Democrats believe that Obama would have the best chance of beating John McCain, down eight from last month.
NONE OF THIS IS TO SAY that Clinton is doing all that much better. In fact, she’s down overall – losing to Obama among primary voters 46% to 38%. A third of Democratic primary voters expect her to win, and 37% believe she has the best chance of beating John McCain. A better measure here might be the smaller orbit of registered voters, where Clinton trails Obama by five points on this most important question, the question that serves as the central organizing principle for superdelegates. The potential minefield for Obama can be found when voters are asked to judge his personal qualities. He no longer wears a halo; Democrats view Obama and Clinton equally as favorably. But they view Clinton as much more patriotic – 55% say she is “very patriotic” versus 39% who say the same thing about Obama. Correspondingly, he remains much more trustworthy and honest in the eyes of Democratic voters.
THE CONVENTION is where most Democrats surveyed believe that the nomination will be settled, an expectation that helps Hillary Clinton enormously, as it indicates that voters will not be unpleasantly surprised by a hot summer of, well, something. A majority say they do not want party leaders and superdelegates to step in and end the race early, although Obama supporters are much less likely to support this view than Clinton voters are. I've written elsewhere that petulance, by which I mean a gathering ‘round effect common to polarizing enterprises, explains why a fair number of Clinton and Obama supporters right now say they would not support the opponent. It’s assumed that Clinton would have a harder time integrating Obama’s coalition into hers, but the data shows something else: 64% of Obama supporters would be satisfied if Clinton were the nominee, versus 50% of Clinton voters who say they'd be satisfied if Obama were the nominee. Indeed, 35% of Clinton supporters still say that they’ll support John McCain in the fall versus 23% of Obama supporters. The FACT of the support for McCain is not what’s interesting; it’s the disparity between Obama and Clinton. A slender majority of both candidates’ supporters are in favor of a dream ticket.
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