« In Bingaman, Obama Bags A Senator, Superdelegate | Main | Wright And Obama: Another Interpretation »

The GOP Generational Time Bomb

28 Apr 2008 04:01 pm

813-1.gif

It's no secret that Republicans have a brand problem; the gap between Dem and GOP party identification is greater today than at any point since the vanguard of the Reagan revolution, when Republicans held a double-digit advantage. Researchers at Pew have put a decade's worth of data through their analytical minds and come to the conclusion that the leading edge of the Democratic edge is among young voters. This isn't surprising, but it is noteworthy. Consider: Voters under 30 in the Midwest are twice as likely to call themselves Democrats as they are to identify as Republicans. 63% of women under age 30 identify as Democrats versus just 28% who call themselves Republicans. Democrats even have the affiliation of a majority of young men. A potential objection: that old canard, that young people are liberal and become more conservative? The historical data doesn't support it. When Bill Clinton was elected, a plurality of people under 30 identified themselves as Republicans. Same thing when Ronald Reagan was elected. Politically, today's cohort of 18-to-29 year olds came of age during the Bush presidency. It has turned them into Democrats.

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/mt/mt-tb.cgi/22280

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference The GOP Generational Time Bomb:

» Near Sighted Republicans from RedStateEclectic
Marc Ambinder has a nice review of some new Pew Research numbers. Be sure to click on the link for his commentary. Here, though, is the chart that accompanies the story: The obvious conclusions (as I see them): in 1992, [Read More]

» The coming progressive era from The Old Eighteen
Marc Ambinder has taken a look at a recent Pew Research study comparing voter affiliation numbers over the last decade or so, and he's come up with some interesting observations on the data that bode extremely well for the future [Read More]