"There are many important issues in this Presidential election, clearly one of the most important issues is national security and keeping the American people safe. In my opinion, protecting the American people is the most important duty of our next President. I have made comments in the past about John McCain's service and I want to reiterate them in order be crystal clear. As I have said before I honor John McCain's service as a prisoner of war and a Vietnam Veteran. He was a hero to me and to hundreds of thousands and millions of others in Armed Forces as a prisoner of war. I would never dishonor the service of someone who chose to wear the uniform for our nation.
John McCain is running his campaign on his experience and how his experience would benefit him and our nation as President. That experience shows courage and commitment to our country - but it doesn't include executive experience wrestling with national policy or go-to-war decisions. And in this area his judgment has been flawed - he not only supported going into a war we didn't have to fight in Iraq, but has time and again undervalued other, non-military elements of national power that must be used effectively to protect America But as an American and former military officer I will not back down if I believe someone doesn't have sound judgment when it comes to our nation's most critical issues.
A Vice Presidential Brand?
ASPEN -- I'm not really sure what "advanced evolutionary optimization technology" is or how it relates to the cerebral jiggles of John McCain and Barack Obama as they contemplate their vice presidential choice, but I'm a sucker for new age company names, and Affinnova of Massachusetts caught my attention. (Affinity + Nova (new) = Affinnova? New Affinity?)
The company claims that its technology has figured out the "ideal" vice presidential candidate for each party using the same techniques that big companies like Microsoft use to target consumers. The reasons seem conventional; he apparently scores the highest in certain category polls that Affinnova asked voters to fill in.
Among likely Democratic voters, Powell took first place, followed by former Vice President Al Gore and former Majority Leader Dick Gephardt who tied for second place. New York Senator Hillary Clinton came in fourth and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards finished fifth. Among likely Republican voters, Powell came in first with a slight lead. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney were tied for second (though within the margin of error for the Top Ticket). Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani came in fifth.
As a public opinion survey, Affinnova is on to something; I had first suspected that its numbers-crunching turned up a Colin Powell type as vice president, but there is plenty of evidence that voters who know they are thinking about Colin Powell would like to see him as their vice president; that is, both blindly and with information, voters seem to like Powell.
I have a few thoughts.
One is that the vice presidency is not and has never been a position that is responsive to, or even created to service, the public in the same way that the president services the public; (this is part of David Addington's argument, I know, but bear with me). It's kind of a post-facto-elected office; the identity of the candidate is chosen for them and voters don't have the opportunity to affirmatively choose... so it's hard to equate the decision to vote for a vice president with the decision to shop at Wal-Mart. (In general, folks tend to vote their ideologies, and swing voters tend to vote for attributes so you could easily argue that almost no one votes in the abstract for a vice president; that is, the choice between Wal-Mart and Target is already made. If they're instinctively Target-ous, they'll go to Target.)
The best way to explain how Affinnova works is to try out a survey -- click here.
"Dignity" Airs In 18 States
Barack Obama's second general election ad is called "dignity."
The music alternates A/A sharp as the deep-voiced male narrator lets go of a series of action verbs -- "fought," "passed," "turned down," "worked," "slashed." The visuals alternate between pictures of somber Obama and smiling Obama. One includes the archetypal image of the candidate, shirtsleeves rolled up, his elbows at his sides, and his arms extended outward, palms up.
OBAMA: I’m Barack Obama, and I approve this message. Announcer: He worked his way through college and Harvard Law. Turned down big money offers, and helped lift neighborhoods stung by job loss. Fought for workers’ rights. He passed a law to move people from welfare to work, slashed the rolls by eighty percent. Passed tax cuts for workers; health care for kids. As president, he’ll end tax breaks for companies that export jobs, reward those that create jobs in America. And never forget the dignity that comes from work.
Notice how the careful omission of a pronoun makes it sound like Obama himself "slashed" welfare -- a nice and defensible trick of the trade. Actually, the word "passed" here is a bit out of context. As other news organizations have noted, Obama co-sponsored the bill, which brought Illinois into compliance with the '96 federal law; legislators don't pass anything. And it passed overwhelmingly -- Democrats and Republicans in the Illinois Senate supported it; there was only one no vote And Obama glosses over his opposition to the '96 federal welfare reform law.
A Bill Clinton-Obama Call Is Complete!
On the drive from Kansas City this morning, Barack Obama's telephone call to Bill Clinton finally went through. (I word this sentence very carefully.)
“Senator Obama had a terrific conversation with President Clinton and is honored to have his support in this campaign. He has always believed that Bill Clinton is one of this nation’s great leaders and most brilliant minds, and looks forward to seeing him on the campaign trail and receiving his counsel in the months to come,” said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.
And Clinton's spokesman, Matt McKenna, released this statement:
President Clinton had a very good conversation with Senator Obama today. He renewed his offer to do whatever he can to ensure Senator Obama is our next President. President Clinton continues to be impressed by Senator Obama and the campaign he has run, and looks forward to campaigning for and with him in the months to come. The President believes that Senator Obama has been a great inspiration for millions of people around the country, and he knows that he will bring the change America needs as our next President.
The General's Big Mouth
ASPEN -- It could be the thin air up here; maybe that gives me the perspective equivalent to the astronomer who is looking into a black hole and sees the Democrats and Republicans slowly revolving around the event horizon, beneath which is total absurdity and oblivion. Ret. Gen. Wes Clark’s remark -- in response to a question from Bob Scheiffer -- was a provocation; an insult. Critics of McCain have used the same verbiage before, and used it as an insult. Historians and journalists who study the events will first notice that McCain spent five years as a POW; surely, that is the relevant fact, not the way he became a POW. One focuses on the means of his condition only to degrade the subsequent five years, as if to say, yeah, five years of torture was bad, but it was kinda dumb of him to get shot down. Referring to the shoot down strips away the relevant context: McCain was shot down on a daring combat mission whose target, as I recall, was strategically relevant. It wasn’t as if he wandered into Viet Cong airspace and was hit by a stray piece of metal. (By the way – and this is important – McCain admits in both the books he wrote about his Vietnam experience that he wasn’t a great aviator. So why even make the point?)
In partial fairness to Clark, Scheiffer was the one who brought up the "shot down" evocation but did so with the intention of recounting the story -- see here:
SCHIEFFER: I have to say, Barack Obama has not had any of those experiences either, nor has hem ridden in a fighter plane and gotten shot down. I mean...
Gen. CLARK: Well, I don't think riding in a fighter plane and getting shot down is a qualification
to be president.
SCHIEFFER: Really?
Two: the statement is both patently obvious and patently false. Wait, you say. How could it be both? Well, being “shot down” (or being imprisoned) is obviously not a qualification in the sense that the fact that Barack Obama turned down lucrative corporate law work to join a public interest law firm has any bearing, in the abstract, on his claim to be president. Aside from military command service (which was sort of Clark’s point) or being a strong governor of a large and complex state, there really aren’t any other bright line qualifications for being president. Elections are as much about what the presidency is, and to that end, all of these qualifications service a particular view of what the presidency ought to be about. In that way, John McCain’s military service, and especially his decision, as a POW, not to jump the line and walk out of prison when offered, is a piece of who the man is and tells us about the decisions he has made. Same with Obama and his post-law school career choice.
Three: John McCain has the right to be insulted, but he has heard the dig enough not to be outraged. When he heard what Clark said, he probably laughed. Maybe he chalked it up to an
intra-service rivalry; Clark has a reputation for saying weird things. Most of the outrage on both sides is contrived for political effect. Republicans know Clark was being provocative and dumb; Democrats know that Clark was being provocative and dumb. As unsympathetic as I am to these associational semantics, I can’t blame the Republicans for sezing on this one. Clark said what he said as a surrogate for Barack Obama; the Obama campaign trusted Clark’s judgment enough as a surrogate to send him out there. The "new politics" that both Obama and McCain claim to represent is not supposed to traffic in these type of Jack-In-The-Box debates; there’s no need for conference calls and surrogate television appearances and research -- the effort by Republicans to paint the Democrats (read Obama) as unpatriotic is as absurd in this case as it is when professional Republicans noticed that Obama didn't wear a flag pin.
Discuss.
I don't think Obama is really "moving to the center" on FISA, NAFTA, guns, or even taxes" He is, to the contrary, being the authentic Obama: cautious, fairly risk-averse, willing to change his mind as facts (and sometimes political currents) warrant. The broad expanse of his policies remain center-left -- or left-center.
Off To Colorado
I'm headed to Colorado this morning for the Aspen Ideas Festival powered by the Atlantic. For the uninitiated, the Ideas Fest is one of those political-corporate-journalistic hybrids that convenes once a summer where intermingling is encouraged and higher-order intellectual pleasures are to be had.
This isn't my usual crowd, and I'm not used to the close cooperation of journalist and subject and advertiser, so my blogging will focus on both the festival and the sociology of the festival. (Why, for example, do cabinet secretaries attend? Which corporate sponsors seem interesting in burnishing their credentials? Is their swag? What's the default ideology here? Which ideologies don't we see represented?)
Among the notable invitees this year are Bill Clinton; given that Terry McAuliffe told CNN that the former president and Barack Obama will finally connect with the next few days, perhaps we will witness that conversation. (Perhaps not.)
McCain To Press Obama on Iraq
Look for the McCain camp this week to start predicting that Obama will change his position on Iraq and to press the case that Obama has flip-flopped on a half dozen issues within the space of a month. (McCain, in his remarks yesterday, previewed this line of attack).
One McCain adviser says: "He is in a bad place. Caught between his promise to his base and the reality on the ground. Immediate withdrawal isn't a good place to be."
So far, there's no evidence -- aside from some vocal online critics -- that Obama's base is beginning get anxious -- he routinely gets support from more than 90% of liberal Democrats.
June 29, 2008
From The Better Left Unsaid Department...
"I don't think getting in a fighter plane and getting shot down is a qualification to become president."
Ret. Gen. Wes Clark (D-AR), on CBS's Face The Nation.
June 27, 2008
Help Shape The Atlantic
Join The Atlantic Exchange, and help improve the editorial and commercial vitality of our enterprise. Give advice and feedback on our print, online and live products. Talk to Atlantic editors directly. Help us make us more interesting.
The Daily Bric-A-Brac
The Federal Marriage Amendment is reintroduced with David Vitter and Larry Craig as cosponsors.
Yes, David Plouffe's office in Chicago is really spare:
Obama, to Ed Gordon: "“At the beginning I wasn’t black enough, now folks were saying I was too black at one point. I can’t spend my time worrying about that.”
Watch Clinton/Obama Here
And comment away...
Ross And Reihan: Saviors
David Brooks urges Republicans to heed the message of "Grand New Party," the new tome by colleagues Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam.
There have been other outstanding books on how the G.O.P. can rediscover its soul (like “Comeback” by David Frum), but if I could put one book on the desk of every Republican officeholder, “Grand New Party” would be it. You can discount my praise because of my friendship with the authors, but this is the best single roadmap of where the party should and is likely to head.
Several years ago, Tim Pawlenty, the Minnesota governor, said the Republicans should be the party of Sam’s Club, not the country club. This line is the animating spirit of “Grand New Party.” Douthat and Salam argue that the Republicans rode to the majority because of support from the Reagan Democrats, and if the party has a future, it will be because it understands the dreams and tribulations of working-class Americans.
New McCain Ad, New Slogan
"Putting Country First."
ANNCR: American technology protected the world.
We went to the moon, not because it was easy, but because it was hard.
John McCain will call America to our next national purpose: Energy Security.
A comprehensive bipartisan plan to:
Lower prices at the pump.
Reduce dependence on foreign oil through domestic drilling.
And champion energy alternatives for better choices and lower costs.
Putting country first.
McCain.
Hierarchical Analysis Of The Vote
Thomas Riehle of RT strategies passes along a hierarchical vote analysis he completed for the Cook Report; he first breaks down the vote for each candidate into seven categories measuring enthusiasm, and then he evaluates how that "hiearchy of intensity" holds up across 50 different subgroups of voters.
Since March, Obama has picked up 15 percentage points worth of support from "strong Democrats," 31 points among women aged 18 to 39, and 14 points among those without college education. McCain has picked up support among voters aged 50-64, women aged 40 to 56 (17 points -- he leads Obama overall by four points now), and independents who aren't leaners. But he's lost support among conservative Republicans -- down to 81% in this poll and Republican women -- 75% support him.
The demographic contours of Obama's base are clear: African Americans, 18 to 34 years olds, younger women, less educated (a shift since the primaries), and among voters on the Pacific Coast, the Midwest and the Great Lakes regions.
McCain has an edge in the South -- and really nowhere else. He and Obama are running (roughly) equal in the West, the farm-mountain region and even the Northeast. McCain has a 16 point edge among evangelical voters; Obama has a 19 point edge among voters who aren't born again. He's getting about one in four former Clinton voters and ties Obama among women with college degrees.
Unity Watch: Democrats For McCain In New Hampshire
Two prominent New Hampshire Democratic activists, including a political appointee of President Clinton's, have endorsed Sen. John McCain and are forming "New Hampshire Democrats for McCain."
Barack Obama drew his biggest cheers of the night when he vowed to help Hillary Clinton pay off her campaign debt. The pooler was ushered out of the meeting room where about 200 of Clinton's top donors -- those who had raised a combined $230m -- had gathered to watch the Democratic nominee try to build a bridge.
But a few minutes later, a few, less happy donors asked pointed questions. According to someone in the room, one Clinton donor asked Obama directly whether he was going to add her to the ticket as his vice presidential nominee. Even Sen. Clinton looked uncomfortable, gesturing to Obama to move on, which he did.
A second question was edgy: would Obama accept a roll call vote at the convention? Obama responded judiciously, according to the participant, saying, "Hillary and I are going to negotiate this thing and talk about it, and obviously we're going to do what is right for the party. We're all going to make sure we agree."
Several donors took the occasion to speak to Obama. Lanny Davis, a vociferous Clinton defender on television, introduced himself to Obama, who responded, "I know who you are." Davis fidgeted. But he thanked Obama because he son felt for the first time invested in politics. But Obama had to understand: he's known Hillary before she was a Clinton. "I don't want you to take out of context what I said during the campaign," he told Obama.
The mood? "Guarded optimism," according to an attendee.
Clinton Donors Meet Obama: A Pool Report
From the Washington Post's Shailagh Murray:
Quick summary: The 30-minute event was emotional and upbeat. Both candidates warmly received, generous to each other, and very focused on winning. About 200 people attended. Partial guest list below.
Also, before the event, your pooler witnessed Obama finance committee chair Penny Pritzker writing a $4,600 check from her and her husband to help retire Clinton’s debt. “We’re helping. It’s important,” Pritzker said, on her way into the ballroom.
The M.C. for the night was Terry McAuliffe. As Clinton walked on stage, followed by Obama, Clinton’s money man pointed out that the group had collectively raised $230 million for Clinton’s campaign. Congratulating Obama, McAuliffe rallied the troops one last time, “This, folks, was a magnificent race…This party is on fire.”
Turning back to Clinton, McAuliffe said she has great future, “no matter what she does. If she wants to become pope, it doesn’t matter.”
Obama and McAuliffe embraced and joked as Clinton moved up to the podium. She started by knocking down the pope idea: “First, I’d have to become Catholic, and second, we don’t want to go there.”
Clinton profusely thanked her supporters for “what you each have done over so many years. I look out and I see faces of people who have been friends and colleagues and warriors at arms on so many different occasions.”
She lamented that the party had only won three of the last 10 elections. “That is a sobering thought,” she said, adapting her electability argument from the primary campaign. “For me this is intensely personal, because I want to see our country once again not just solving problems, which sounds very pragmatic, but lifting up our sights and finding the promise of our
country by once again producing the progress that is truly the American birthright. It has slipped away from us.”
She recalled her many months on the campaign trail – the countless people she had met, and all of their struggles. Obama stood next to her, looking on as Clinton spoke. “We have to make it a priority in our lives to elect Barack Obama the next president of the United States,” Clinton said, to sustained applause.
“This was a hard-fought campaign,” she continued. “That’s what made it so exciting and intense and why people’s passions ran so high on both sides. I know my supporters have extremely strong feelings, and I know Barack’s do as well. But we are a family, and we have an opportunity now to really demonstrate clearly we do know what’s at stake, and we will do whatever it takes to win back this White House.”
“Here here!” a man shouted, to more robust applause.
Clinton acknowledged Reps. Sheila Jackson-Lee and Stephanie Tubbs Jones, two of her most prominent and devoted African American supporters. Someone pointed out that Rep. Anthony Weiner was in the room as well.
And then she wrapped up with this: “Let me, to my friends, and you are all my friends, I am just so intensely grateful to each and every one of you. We have a lot of work to do, going forward, not only the election, but once the election is over, to making sure we realize all the benefits that this election can and should bring to our country. So let me introduce my friend
Sen. Barack Obama to my friends, all of these wonderful people who have met
so much to me in my life.”
Next it was Obama’s turn, and he told two stories about his family to “illustrate the extraordinary nature of (Clinton’s) public service, and extraordinary nature of her campaign.”
One was the familiar tale of Obama’s maternal grandmother, who worked on a bomber assembly line during World War II, but who never went to college because she didn’t qualify for the G.I. bill -- yet rose from bank secretary to bank vice president.
He talked to her frequently during the primary season, and obviously “she was rooting for her grandson,” Obama said. But she also complained that Clinton wasn’t getting a fair shake. “When I see that instinct of hers to fight on behalf of those who need a champion, she reminds me a little of me,” Obama’s grandmother told him. He said the story illustrated “the ability of Hillary Clinton to inspire passion on behalf of those who have been left out in the past.”
Then he told of being surprised that his 9-year-old daughter Malia had been well aware of the historic nature of the Clinton-Obama duel. Her father, she knew, could be the first African American president. But she also observed that Clinton could be the first woman. “Then she said, it’s about time, and rolled over and went to bed,” Obama said.
As the laughter died down, he continued, “between my grandmother’s generation and my young daughter, there’s a testimony to the challenges that are hard won and hard fought. To the point that my 9-year-old takes for granted that of course we can have a woman president. Of course we can have an African-American president. But that doesn’t come just by the passage of time. It comes because people are consistently working and fighting.”
Like Clinton, he recalled the many struggling people he has met on the campaign trail. He said of his former rival, “It was an extraordinary honor to be alongside her during the course of this campaign. It was an extraordinary test.” Her recognized “her tenacity, her fighting spirit. I
am a better candidate as a consequence of having run against Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.”
Obama continued, “I recognize that this room shared the same passion that a roomful of my supporters would show. I do not expect that passion to be transferred. Sen. Cinton is unique, and your relationships with her are unique.” But he added, “Sen. Clinton and I at our core agree deeply that this country needs to change.”
Finally, at the end of his remarks, Obama made a direct appeal for support. “I’m going to need Hillary by my side campaigning during his election, and I’m going to need all of you.” He recounted how he had told his top fundraisers this week “to get out their checkbooks and start working to make sure Sen. Clinton -- the debt that’s out there needs to be taken care
of.” And that, folks, was the night’s big applause line. In vowing to help pay off Clinton’s debt, Obama won a standing ovation.
Obama And Clinton
On Gun Control, Obama Has A Different Answer
The case for Barack Obama's consistency about the DC gun law rests on the following argument. (a) A spokesman gave an incorrect statement on whether Obama supported the DC law. (b) several questionnaires got it wrong -- including one with Obama's handwriting on it. (c) When Obama responded to CNN's Leon Harris, who had just asked him, " You said in Idaho recently, I'm quoting here, 'I have no intention of taking away folks' guns.' But you support the D.C. handgun ban and you've said that it's constitutional?...How can you reconcile those two different positions?" and Obama said: "Right, right." -- he was simply acknowledging the question, and for some reason, did not correct Harris in his answer, and (d) has always favored the right of locales to regulate handguns and (e) had never publicly opposed the DC law.
It's true that Obama regularly says and has said that he interprets the 2nd amendment to hold secure an individual's right to bear arms while being constrained by the rights of the community to "maintain public safety," as he put it today.
It's just that, with regard to the DC law, it seems clear that Obama was OK with how DC government balanced those rights and is now OK with the see-saw swinging in the other direction.
Obama's Bipartisanship
The Obama campaign disputes the description of Obama's record of bipartisan achievement as broadly liberal ( -- "Obama's bipartisanship is more rhetorical and has never really extended outside a broadly liberal comfort zone" -- ), and points to his work with Dick Lugar on loose nukes, his pressuring Democrats on ethics reform (which led to anonymous holds on the bill), his work with Republicans to reform the death penality in Illinois, his work with Sen. Coburn to put all spending bills online.
I think the characterization holds. Working with Dick Lugar on loose nukes was a good thing, and an example of Obama's willingness to write legislation Republicans, but it didn't piss off liberals. (Who's in favor of looser nukes?) Same thing with health care in Illinois, or the death penalty. Obama rightly claims as an accomplishment the pressure he put on Democrats to accept more aggressive ethics provisions -- brave, in an institutional sense, but exactly what liberals would have expected a reformer to do. Obama's record is solid, but he simply hasn't risked as much as McCain has. That may well be a consequence of their relative lenghts of services, but it's true.
Now -- an Obama campaign spokesperson did not mention one area in Obama HAS gone outside of his comfort zone, and that's with his support for the FISA compromise. Liberals are pissed off; Democrats in Congress are angry, and Obama went ahead and did what he thouht was right. So FISA's a good talking point for him. I'm surprised the Obama campaign isn't using it.
Some Senate Race Polling
The Quinnipiac surveys have new numbers for the competitive Senate races in Minnesota and Colorado. No big surprises in the results: Sen. Norm Coleman has been resilient, Al Franken has an image problem, and Minnesotans are independent enough to separate Franken from the Democratic wave: Coleman leads by 10 points, 51% to 41%. In Colorado, Rep. Mark Udall (D) has a comfortable lead over Republican Bob Schaffer, 48% to 38%.
suggest that the make-up and mood of the 2008 presidential electorate is right now perfectly trimmed to embrace Barack Obama. As Quinnipiac puts it, "[a]n emerging Democratic coalition of women, minorities and younger voters is propelling Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to leads." As with every statewide poll, we must wave the caution flag: these numbers can and probably will change over time.
At least the McCain campaign knows who they can target: white conservative independents, especially men. But even as McCain performs solidly with that group, the composition of the electorate is changing so much that they can't help him. (Obama, for example, is doing well with Hispanics but is doing extremely well with younger Hispanics.) Obama wins independents; he does weakest among them in Michigan, but Republicans in that state are demoralized. Some of the more interesting nuggets: In Colorado, Obama and McCain split the white vote and almost split the vote of those 55 and older; same with Michigan. The gender gap in Minnesota is huge: Obama leads by 26 points among women and seven points among men and double digits among white voters. In Wisconsin, Obama even leads among white men -- 51 to 40%. The polls have margins of error of no more than +/- 2.5%.
Obama Likes Heller
From a statement:
“I have always believed that the Second Amendment protects the right of individuals to bear arms, but I also identify with the need for crime-ravaged communities to save their children from the violence that plagues our streets through common-sense, effective safety measures. The Supreme Court has now endorsed that view, and while it ruled that the D.C. gun ban went too far, Justice Scalia himself acknowledged that this right is not absolute and subject to reasonable regulations enacted by local communities to keep their streets safe. Today’s ruling, the first clear statement on this issue in 127 years, will provide much-needed guidance to local jurisdictions across the country.
“As President, I will uphold the constitutional rights of law-abiding gun-owners, hunters, and sportsmen. I know that what works in Chicago may not work in Cheyenne. We can work together to enact common-sense laws, like closing the gun show loophole and improving our background check system, so that guns do not fall into the hands of terrorists or criminals. Today's decision reinforces that if we act responsibly, we can both protect the constitutional right to bear arms and keep our communities and our children safe.
The Other Important SCOTUS Ruling
The Court today struck down the "millionaire's amendment" to the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, with Justice Alito writing that it's unconstitutional to set different limits for candidates competing against one another, even when one of them has the resources to self-fund. Election law expert Rick Hasen believes that the "5-4 decision has much broader implications, laying the groundwork for striking down limits on spending by corporations and unions" and may signal the beginning of the end for public financing because "the opinion repeatedly (see maj opn 10-18) rejects the idea that Congress has any ability to try to level the playing field, stating that doing so would take the question away from voters."
Republican lawyer Ben Ginsberg e-mails to say that "[t]he case itself means that wealthy individuals will once again be able to write checks to their congressional campaigns without being penalized by the Millionaires Amendment. On a broader scale, it's the latest as applied challenge chipping away of BCRA since it was upheld in a facial challenge in 2003. It does provide encouragement -- as did Wisconsin Right to Life -- for additional challenges to BCRA. All the decisions, including today's, have been 5-4, showing the impact of Justices Roberts and Alito replacing Justice O'Connor on the Court. Another thought -- the Millionaires Amendment was added to BCRA as an incumbent protection measure to get the votes needed to pass BCRA. Many said at the time the Millionaires Amendment was unconstitutional. If BCRA's sponsors had been honest about that at the time, would McCain-Feingold ever gotten the votes to become law?"
Democrats And Guns
Here's a hint as to what Barack Obama might say about today's Heller ruling, courtesy of Third Way's Jim Kessler, who is, on balance, pleased:
“
The Supreme Court’s decision in the Heller case is fair and appropriate. It affirms that the Second Amendment right to own firearms is an individual right of self-defense but one that is subject to reasonable restrictions. By overturning the DC gun ban, the Supreme Court said that while Second Amendment rights are not absolute, neither are gun restrictions. The DC gun ban simply went too far.
“This decision gives constitutional support to nearly all existing federal, state, and local gun safety laws. It closes the door on any potential challenges to the federal Brady law or such proposed federal laws as the assault weapons ban and gun show loophole bill.
“As for the political ramifications, there will be no cheering at NRA headquarters today. For forty years, the NRA has opposed nearly all proposed gun laws on constitutional grounds (“what part of ‘shall not be infringed’ don’t you understand?”). The Supreme Court just told them to get a new argument.
The Schmidt Memo: Where's The Outrage?
A memo this morning from McCain adviser Steve Schmidt reads as a lecture to journalists covering the race who unhesitatingly refer to Barack Obama as the candidate of change. The memo makes some not bad points: over the arc of John McCain's career, he has risked his life, certainly, and his political fortunes, too, for the sake of principle; at key junctures, he bucked his party when doing so would damage his standing. Obama's bipartisanship is more rhetorical and has never really extended outside a broadly liberal comfort zone. As NBC News's First Read team notes this morning, the electorally vulnerable parts of McCain's own party doesn't think the argument will stick, with Gordon Smith throwing McCain under the bus, with Republican strategists backing down from their efforts to demonize Obama.
Subject: COUNTRY FIRST vs. SELF-SERVING PARTISANSHIP
To: Interested Parties
From: Steve Schmidt, McCain 2008 Senior Advisor
Date: June 26, 2008
Re: Country First Vs. Self-Serving Partisanship
Today, our country faces great challenges. But the problem is not a Republican Administration that has disappointed many or a Democratic Congress that cannot take action on the challenges facing our nation. The problem is that politicians in Washington are working for their own self-interest or that of their party.
Too many in Washington are putting politics first and country second. Too few are setting aside their own interests to work together on solutions for America.
For John McCain, country first is how he has lived his life and how he has worked in Washington. When John McCain was offered early release as a prisoner of war, he refused, subjecting himself to torture rather than give a propaganda victory to his captors. Is it any wonder that during the Republican primary, John McCain was working with Democrats and
talking about the need for comprehensive immigration reform? Is it any wonder that at the nadir of the Iraq war, John McCain was arguing for the successful surge strategy rather than timetables for withdrawal?
Does anyone think that John McCain would have broken his word on a bipartisan agreement for public financing in the general, even if it accrued to his benefit?
Senator Obama's rapid ascent to the Democratic nomination is an historic achievement of which he should be proud. But while Senator Obama is certainly a fresh face, his campaign offers more of the same old typical politics that have broken Washington. In his time on the national stage, he has consistently put his party and his self-interest first.
On campaign finance, Barack Obama had to choose between keeping his word or enjoying a financial advantage. He chose the money. On town hall debates, Barack Obama called for an elevated, civil debate, but has worked to undermine the possibility of joint town halls where he would have to answer questions from real voters. On Iraq, Barack Obama has refused to acknowledge success on the ground because he would risk losing his base of support. Likewise on energy he has refused any supply solution to our energy crisis because of left-wing opposition.
There has never been a time when Barack Obama has bucked the party line to lead on an issue of national importance. He has never been a part of a bipartisan group that came together to solve a controversial issue. He has never put his career on the line for a cause greater than himself. Even as a state Senator, Obama voted 'present' on controversial bills. We have seen Barack Obama forced to choose between principle and the interests of himself and his party. He has always chosen the latter.
We don't need to trade Republican partisanship for Democratic partisanship. We need to put our country first and put our politics second.
That is what John McCain has done his whole life, and that is what he will do as President.
The Politics Of Contrast
I was just thinking that McCain's reaction to the Heller -- not the substance but the style -- has all the hallmarks of the campaign's passive acceptance of Karl Rove's hectoring -- that they have to be extremely aggressive and confrontational with Obama; they have to hit traditional conservative/Reagan Democrat trigger points, etc. There's a debate to be had here: it's in the DNA of younger Republican consultants and strategists to seize on every opportunity to draw contrasts in the most extreme manner; it served them well in congressional races in the 1990s against liberals who had no idea how to respond and against a Democratic Party in the early aughts which was too internally conflicted to figure out how to respond. Will it work today?
Are Guns The Keys To The Kingdom For McCain?
Judging by the rapidity of the RNC's reaction to DC v. Heller, the craftmanship of McCain's statement and the sudden appearance of McCain surrogates on the cable networks, the answer is: he thinks do. McCain adviser Steve Schmidt likes to say that elections are about contrasts, the campaign has been looking for issues to draw clean, unsubtle distinctions between the two candidates. There is a particular demographic group in the balance here: white, working class men. It's another example of two different approaches to the electorate. McCain has different things to say to different groups of people -- not inconsistent things, but just different things -- while Obama's message is holistic.
Today's decision is a landmark victory for Second Amendment freedom in the United States. For this first time in the history of our Republic, the U.S. Supreme Court affirmed that the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms was and is an individual right as intended by our Founding Fathers. I applaud this decision as well as the overturning of the District of Columbia's ban on handguns and limitations on the ability to use firearms for self-defense.
Unlike Senator Obama, who refused to join me in signing a bipartisan amicus brief, I was pleased to express my support and call for the ruling issued today. Today's ruling in District of Columbia v. Heller makes clear that other municipalities like Chicago that have banned handguns have infringed on the constitutional rights of Americans. Unlike the elitist view that believes Americans cling to guns out of bitterness, today's ruling recognizes that gun ownership is a fundamental right -- sacred, just as the right to free speech and assembly.
This ruling does not mark the end of our struggle against those who seek to limit the rights of law-abiding citizens. We must always remain vigilant in defense of our freedoms. But today, the Supreme Court ended forever the specious argument that the Second Amendment did not confer an individual right to keep and bear arms.
The RNC's first memo is titled: "OBAMA'S SUPREME MISTAKE ON GUNS The Supreme Court Rules Against Obama's Anti-Gun Views On D.C. Gun Ban, Further Demonstrating Obama Is Most Anti-Gun Presidential Candidate In History."
In part this aggressiveness serves as a prophylactic against what the McCain campaign thinks Obama will do, which is to say that he never opposed the DC gun ban in the first place. You can read the two RNC research memos after the jump.
On yesterday's longish post about Republicans scaling back their voter fraud efforts, Trevor Potter, McCain's lawyer, sends along a statement: "Any impression that we’re not committed to stopping voter fraud is 100 percent false. Make no mistake: both the McCain campaign and the RNC will ensure that all eligible voters have the opportunity to vote and that ONLY eligible voters have their vote counted in November."
(Note: nowhere does the article suggest that the campaign suddenly favors voter fraud).
Brian Rogers, a McCain spokesman, said that the campaign is "committed to working with Republicans, Democrats and nonpartisan groups to ensure a fair election this November."
And Carlo LoParo, who experienced the 2004 election as Ken Blackwell's press chief, sends along a dissent:
Regarding Ken Blackwell and your anti-voter fraud post, I'm afraid your source doesn't have all the facts when it comes to the 2004 Ohio presidential election. As a former director of media and voter services for the Ohio Secretary of State, please allow me to set the record straight.
Blackwell did not tighten provisional ballot rules ahead of the 2004 election. Ohio's provisional ballot laws had been in place since 1992. Democrats did petition the court to loosen the law but the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals rejected their argument. It was an interesting lawsuit
because 27 other states had the same provisional ballot rules as Ohio. Even so, according to Electionline.org, only three states did a better job of counting provisional ballots in 2004.
What The Obama Campaign Is Really Saying
Never will a campaign predict a landslide, but if only, say, half of the assumptions that guide Obama's general election strategy are true, his campaign is, in essence, preparing for a landslide in the popular vote. There's no way that 10,000 Obama volunteers in Texas won't influence his vote totals there even if he doesn't win.
June 25, 2008
Plouffe On McCain's Squandared Opportunity
The most interesting moment of David Plouffe's 90 minute briefing and press conference was a casual assertion that he didn't think McCain "used the period from March 3rd [until the end of the Democratic primaries] very effectively, and for that, we're grateful." What he means is that the McCain campaign did nothing during those months to build the type of political organization that could match what Obama's primary campaign forced him to build.
Over and over in the briefing, Plouffe emphasized the volunteer capacity the campaign has; even in a state like Texas, where McCain is likely to beat Obama fairly soundly, there are thousands of Democrats and independents who want to help. And so the campaign will build an organization for them and send them out. In other red states, Plouffe said that Obama presidential volunteers would focus on helping Democrats win House and Senate races.
Obama Iraq Trip Details Coming Soon
The Obama campaign expects to release information about a trip to Iraq in the coming days.....
Plouffe: Obama Will Pick VP On Qualifications, Not Geographical Help
In a briefing with reporters here in Washington, Obama manager David Plouffe offered the campaign's first public comments on what criteria Obama would use to choose his vice presidential ticket-mate.
Responding to a reporter's question, Plouffe said that Obama would choose someone "qualified to be president and someone who'll be a partner in governing."
"We certainly don't want to pick someone who will hurt," he said.
He then referred to President Bush's choice of Dick Cheney as any example of a pick that didn't help Bush politically but didn't hurt him either.
And he noted that the pick of Al Gore didn't help Bill Clinton win Tennessee in 1992; without Gore, Clinton would have won anyway.
GOP Prepares To Scale Back Aggressive Anti-Voter Fraud Campaigns
John McCain's election strategists plan to tone down the Republicans' traditionally aggressive and public campaign against potential voter fraud, several Republicans familiar with the situation say.
The strategists and consultants all would speak only on the condition that their names and affiliations not be used because they were not permitted to divulge the information, they did not want to disclose internal deliberations, and because the issue is still being discussed within the party.
Sources with direct knowledge of the coordinated Republican effort this year say that high-ranking Republicans, including some within McCain's campaign, are convinced that GOP efforts in 2004 were damaging.
"Spreading 10,000 lawyers around the country and announcing a challenge to 40,000 new registrants in Ohio was counterproductive," a Republican familiar with the situation said. The Republican said that many within the party believed that then-Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell's efforts to tighten provisional ballot rules ahead of the 2004 may have increased Democratic turnout because it convinced Democrats that Republicans were trying to disenfranchise voters.
Because the RNC is prohibited by court order from directly participating in these types of efforts, the charge is generally taken up by groups with fewer political sensitivities. Democrats tend to oppose stricter voter identification provisions and Republicans support them; Republicans think that Democrats want to encourage non-voters to vote; Democrats think that Republicans want to intimidate black, Hispanic and poorer voters into not voting.
The emerging McCain-Republican view today is that with provisional ballots in wide use, the traditional Republican legal position can change to careful monitoring, rather than aggressive challenging. If there's evidence that the provisional ballots were somehow illegally cast, then those ballots can be challenged post-election.
"We would, of course, welcome an end to traditional Republican vote suppression activity, but we will believe it when we see it," said Robert Bauer, the Obama campaign's general counsel. "We will have a strong, comprehensive program to promote and protect the vote and need really no more from the McCain campaign and their allies than actions fully consistent with true respect for the voter and the voting process."
Another reason for the shift, Republicans say,is that McCain has not generally identified himself with the issue, and they say that McCain's campaign counsel, Trevor Potter, has expressed the view that previous Republican efforts have created a backlash.
Other high-ranking Republicans believe that is politically precarious to be so aggressive in the context of a presidential race against an African American.
"The Democrats will unfortunately try to bring race into play when this discussion happens, as they do every cycle,” another top Republican who is advising the McCain campaign said. “It's unfortunate because illegally cast votes disenfranchise real voters by potentially canceling out their votes, and it's in everyone's best interest to have elections conducted fairly with no suspicion of foul play hanging over the winners.”
.
But perception will force Republicans to modify their footprint. They imagine the hullabaloo if Republicans in 2008 were caught caging -- using the controversial method of matching names to address from the voter lists in preparation to challenge illegal voting (or to suppress legitimate voters) on Election Day.
Someone who attended last week's National Association of Attorneys General meeting in Providence, Rhode Island said that Potter suggested to state solicitors general that Republicans and Democrats work together to identify and avoid Election Day problems. Potter, according to the attendee, endorsed election law expert Ned Foley's suggestion that bipartisan vehicles be used for conflict.
Bauer joined Potter on a panel and seemed skeptical of whether common ground could be reached, according to one attendee. Potter noted that the two might work together on poll closing extensions; Potter implied that Republicans would readily agree to extend poll closing times under certain conditions, to which Bauer responded, according to an attendee: "Well, that's an example of the limits of bipartisan cooperation." Figuring out whether individual voters were legitimately in line when polls closed, he said, is practically impossible. Mr. Potter declined to comment on the meeting and Bauer referred a reporter to a draft of his prepared remarks. Democrats will be skeptical of Potter's proffer, and with reason: Republicans tend to make the offer every cycle and agreements are never reached.
The McCain campaign is pushing back against the new LA Times / Bloomberg survey showing Barack Obama with a 15 point lead over John McCain among registered voters. The essence of the argument is that the poll overstates the Democrats' party identification advantage.
TO: McCAIN CAMPAIGN
FROM: BILL McINTURFF / LIZ HARRINGTON / DAVID KANEVSKY RE: RECENT LOS ANGELES TIMES SURVEY
DATE: JUNE 25, 2008
1. Party identification on the most recent Los Angeles Times survey is out of line with what most other public polls are showing.
The L.A. Times survey has party identification at 22% Republican, 39% Democrat, and 27% Independent.
The first major concern is that leaves 12% of the survey’s sample unaccounted for. Having double digits don’t know or refused on party ID is a quite unusual finding. Furthermore, since the LA Times does not release other demographics like age and ethnicity, it becomes very difficult for an independent observer to verify whether a survey is methodologically flawed or simply an outlier in public opinion trends.
Second, party identification is greatly out of line with what most other surveys are reporting. Most surveys have a party ID gap in the high single digits / low double digits.
In addition, the PEW Research Center released data from the first two months of 2008 which showed that across 5,566 interviews with registered voters, party ID is 27% Republican, 36% Democrat, and 37% Independent. Given the large sample size, that is a useful barometer by which to measure party identification.
2. If the L.A. Times survey is recalculated to a more normalized range for party identification, McCain would be down in the mid-single digits, which is what we are seeing in most other polls.
McCain’s double digit deficit is not a reflection of reality, simply a result of an unusual party identification result in this survey. The L.A. Times own survey shows that in a head-to-head match-up, McCain is winning the Independents, the crucial swing vote, by eight points (44% McCain – 36% Obama). Given what we are seeing in other surveys, it is almost impossible to believe that McCain is ahead among independents by eight points, yet losing by double digits.
If party identification on the L.A. Times survey is recalculated to just down by ten (29% GOP / 39% Dem / 27% Ind / 5% Don’t Know/Refused), the ballot would be 40% McCain – 47% Obama.
3. Party identification is out of line with historical trends.
While most pollsters will acknowledge that party identification does shift over time, and that Republican identification has declined since 2004, the party identification gap on the recent L.A. Times poll is neither born out by other recent public polls or historical trends.
Even in 2006, when Democrats made big gains in the Congressional elections, Democrats had just a two point advantage on party ID (36% GOP / 38% Dem / 26% Ind).
The Bottom Line
It is important that both the campaign, as well as reporters covering the campaign, not over-react to every single survey that is released.
The key for the campaign is to make sure that when the media is reporting on survey results, that they look beyond the horse race but also look at the survey’s methodology and demographics. We are now seeing polls, like the L.A. Times and Newsweek surveys, which are getting heavy coverage in the press, even though they clearly showed unusual results on party identification, as well as other demographics like age, in the case of the Newsweek survey.
Our hope would be that on all public surveys that important variables like party, race, age, education and gender be shared with the public. By releasing these demographics, it will help all those who cover the campaign make better and more informed decisions about methodological differences that can account for these types of results.
Oh, No You Didn't, Mo Dowd
In a column about the Republican fetish for pseudo-populism, Maureen Dowd betrays a certain infelicity with stereotypes. She writes:
The cheap populism is really rich coming from Karl Rove. When was the last time he kicked back with a corncob pipe to watch professional wrestling?
Actually, the average WWE viewer is middle class, and if you happened to watch, as I did, Monday Night Raw this week, you'd see that every commercial hawked expensive consumer goods to the show's younger male devotees with money to spend. So there.
Nader The Gator
Ralph Nader tells Barack Obama what a black guy should really say and really think.
"I mean, first of all, the number one thing that a black American politician aspiring to the presidency should be is to candidly describe the plight of the poor, especially in the inner cities and the rural areas, and have a very detailed platform about how the poor is going to be defended by the law, is going to be protected by the law, and is going to be liberated by the law," Nader said. "Haven't heard a thing."
Not a parody.
Nancy Pelosi And FISA
With high-profile defections in the Senate (Sen. Reid and Sen. Dodd), the FISA compromise looks like less of a sure thing than it did when it comfortably passed the House last week. There's still (probably) enough votes for cloture.
The Democratic Netroots have been furiously pressuring members of the Senate and have been critical of Barack Obama for reluctantly support it. Which leads me back to a question, really, about Nancy Pelosi. Did she support the FISA bill in part because she wanted to provide cover for Sen. Obama with the left flank of the party? As a former ranking member of the intelligence committee, she knows more about the subject than most of her colleagues, and her every public utterance has tended toward a very different view than the expressed intent of the compromise bill. What do you think?
The End Of An Era: Mike Berman Won't Run The Convention Podium For Democrats.
Since 1976, one Democrat has been a ubiquitous and calming presence for every politician and activist who ever spoke at the national convention. Michael Berman, now the president of the Duberstein Group, Inc. and a longtime Democratic activist and patron, was a volunteer. It became a specialty of his, something he would take the time to do every four years. He was the podium guy, developing and managing the schedule. In 1988, he built the first media liaison team designed to help broadcasters get the kind of guests they needed for prime time. In '92, '96, '00 and '04, Berman reprised his role as chief scheduler. "After a while, everyone kind of listened to me because I had been around so long," he says.
Berman, not incidentally, is a friend of Bill and Hillary Clinton's. But he is also universally respected within the party. So it took some Democrats by surprise when they learned that Berman would no longer be running the podium this year. Some were convinced that Barack Obama's team was clearing the decks, even of honorary knights like Berman.
That's not true.
Berman says that he simply decided to retire.
In May of 2007, Berman said he informed convention chief of staff Leah Daughtry that he would not accept her invitation to join the show this year.
"This all occurred long before we had any idea who the nominee would be," Berman said. "In politics like life, it is important to know when it is time for someone else to have their turn."
Crist's Purchase
This column almost broke kayfabe last week and insinuated that Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida reversed himself on off-shore oil drilling because he wanted to curry favor with John McCain, whose vice presidential ticket he covets.
Give credit where credit is due: Crist's announcement yesterday that Florida would buy the sugar cane company responsible for sucking a lot of water out of the Everglades was a pretty bold and audacious move. The Orlando Sentinel notes that the deal "with U.S. Sugar Corp. results from a convergence of interests: The state is trying to restore the Everglades and clean up pollution caused by Big Sugar and other growers, while the American sugar industry is being squeezed by low-price imports." Crist recognized the opportunity and exploited it.
The Viacom MTV Networks channel -- once known for round-the-clock music videos and now home to a host of reality shows -- says it will now take political ads, though only from political candidates and party political committees -- not from third parties.
Now -- it's kind of easy for them to do this when Barack Obama's the Democratic nominee, no?
Obama Says Donors Should Help Clinton With Debt -- If They Want To
In a call with his major donors today, Barack Obama encouraged his donors to "give what they could" to Hillary Clinton, but only if they're inclined to, according to a Democrat with direct knowledge of the matter.
ABC News and CNN first reported that Obama had urged his donors to help Clinton retire at least $10m of her campaign debt; Obama advisers interpreted Obama's comments more passively -- he was responding to a question from a donor.
Whether Obama would ask his donors to help Clinton retire her debt has been a major question that Clinton donors have asked in the days leading up to Thursday's meeting with Obama.
Clinton owes about $10.35m in unpaid bills; you can bet that the donors will not pay her back the $11m+ she loaned herself.
I've Never Seen An Ad Like This
Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) brags in a new television advertisement that he was worked closely and fruitfully with -- and the music really does swell -- Barack Obama.
Not Smith's good friend John McCain.
But Barack Obama.
Not the incumbent president (a la Max Baucus and tax cuts in 2002), but the Democratic presidential nominee.
Obama And Iraq
Remember The Dukakis Bounce, But...
We're getting into Dukakis-Bush'-88 territory here: the Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg survey out today finds that Barack Obama wins in a landslide if Ralph Nader and Bob Barr make it on the ballot -- 48% to 33%. The Times polled more than 1,100 registered voters -- and RVs are really the best universe at this point.
The Times's explanation for Obama's rise is simple: the economy is our top issue, and we trust Barack Obama to fix it.
There are more conservatives than liberals, but nearly 80% of libs say they'd vote for Obama; 58% of conservatives say they'd vote for McCain. The party identification gap is huge: Democrats + 15; and only 29% of respondents had a positive view of the GOP. (51% had a positive view of the Democratic Party.)
Susan Pinkus:
It's a Democratic year," Pinkus said. "This election is the Democrats' to lose."
Sounds about right.
(Reader CH notes: "The major difference between '88 and '08 is that the outgoing Republican president in '88 was nowhere near a 23% approval rating.")
The Daily Bric-a-Brac: Road Trip!
More McCain overseas travel: he'll go to Colombia and Mexico next month. Still no word on when Barack Obama will travel to Iraq, although -- just guessing -- it's probably going to be sooner, rather than later, and it will not be announced in advance.
The DNC says that Michelle Obama will keynote their Gay and Lesbian Leadership Council (GLLC) Gala at the Waldorf Astoria in New York City this Thursday.
The American Federation of Teachers unanimously endorsed Barack Obama today.
There's plenty of buzz in town about Kay Bailey Hutchison's new communications adviser -- Rich Galen, formerly with Fred Thompson's presidential campaign, the Bush White House, the RNC, and Newt Gingrich's shop. Mr. Galen is on paid staff as a "senior adviser" and is said to be a prevailing voice in the office. The chain of speculation looks like this: She hires Rich Galen, increases her profile on national cables and now her staff is getting restless. (That doesn't translate to running for governor of TX.) Does McCain double down on experience and bring the HRC women by choosing her?
Charlie Black's Position Is Secure, For Now
Democrats hope to pressure McCain strategist Charlie Black to resign, but so far, McCain is having none of it, according to two people with knowledge of the situation. As of last night, "Internally, McCain is supporting Charlie," said one of those people. Black recongizes the gravity of his mistake, people close to him said.
Why Bill Clinton's Miffed At Obama
In politics, Hillary Clinton speaks for the Clinton family now, and aside from her campaign debt, she has no real difficulty supporting Barack Obama privately and publicly.
But Bill Clinton has a beef. A Democrat who has spoken directly to Clinton about his feelings said that the former president remains “miffed” for two reasons. One is that he feels that Obama’s candidacy was essentially an anti-Clinton candidacy; that Obama ran against Clinton’s presidential record at times, implying that it was timeworn, divisive, and damaging to the party while adopting policy positions that seemed to flow directly from the Clinton oeuvre. Why should Clinton embrace a guy who spent the past twelve months bashing him and his accomplishments?
Two: Clinton is convinced that the Obama campaign went out of its way to portray the former president as a racist. Clinton wants a private meeting with Obama to sort these things out; he has reconciled himself to the reality of Obama’s nomination and does not want to sit on the sidelines.
"President Clinton is obviously committed to doing whatever he can and is asked to do to ensure Senator Obama is the next President of the United States," said Matt McKenna, Clinton's spokesperson, in a statement provided to news organizations today.
How does this play out? I don’t sense much of a desire from the Obama campaign to completely placate the former president, but his absence from the campaign trail will be noticed, and I do get the sense that they’re willing to meet him halfway. So – don’t expect a public apology from Obama. Perhaps, at some point, he will murmur some private words of regret, and that’ll be the end of it. After all, as famous as Bill Clinton is for holding grudges, he’s also a guy who forgives.
A.B. Culvahouse, Call Your Office
Not to read too much into this, but this headline alone, if it truly describes the facts, is devastating for Gov. Tom Ridge's vice presidential chances, no?
According to research compiled by one Democratic media buyer, John McCain is spending roughly $1.5 million a week on television advertising across the country with an average buy rate of about 400 gross ratings points per market. A McCain campaign spokesman would not say whether the Democrat's compilation reflects their purchasing trends, although an Obama campaign adviser, when shown the data, said that it comports with what they're seeing. The data is valid at least in part because the Democratic media buyer compiles the numbers from television stations themselves; it's possible that McCain is spending more than these amounts, but not less.
The chart reveals the McCain campaign's priorities. For example: over the past two weeks, less than $3000 was reported to have been spent in the Philadelphia television market. In contrast, the campaign spent $19,000 in Pittsburgh for the week ending 6/15and $26,000 for the week ending Monday. They're spending heavily in Erie and Wilkes-Barre, two strongholds of Reagan Democrats.
In Minnesota, the campaign is saturating the Minneapolis-St. Paul market; the data suggests that they've spent at least $150,000 dollars during the past two weeks.
The campaign is spending heavily in the Cleveland, OH market and the working class Youngstown, Ohio market, and less so in the more conservative Cincinnati market.
In Nevada, the campaign is spending about $100,000 per week in Las Vegas and Clark County, and no money at all in Reno.
In Michigan, McCain is concentrating as much on the Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo-Battle Creek market as he is on Detroit.
The biggest single-market purchase for McCain: Denver, where the campaign spent at least $150,000 last week.
"Words"
The McCain campaign's latest video press release chastizes Barack Obama for flip-flopping on public financing. The video -- I won't call it an ad until it appears on television -- is notable for the message that it tests.
Plouffe Powerpoint Sets The Stage For The General Election
Here's a new Powerpoint briefing from Obama campaign manager David Plouffe that's making the rounds of Clinton donors. It's a fairly standard presentation, but it makes a few points about where the campaign sees itself as the general election begins.
One slide reads: "Obama poised to win historic amount of support from women," with data points showing that Obama's margin over John McCain is nearly equivalent to Bill Clinton's margin over Bob Dole in 1996.
Another notes that "Obama Holds Dominant Lead Over McCain Among Hispanics, A Key Swing Group," with polls showing that Obama recieves the same percentage of the Hispanic vote that Al Gore did in 2000.
Citing Rassmussen's weekly tracking, the Plouffe briefing claims that "Obama [is] Consolidating Democrats as He Builds Strength Among Independents," although the data shows that Obama still lacks the support of between 20% and 22% of Democrats.
The Powerpoint also answers a question many of us have had for a while now: just how big is Obama's e-mail list? The answer: 5 million strong. The campaign also claims to have more than one million volunteers.
Here's an excerpt from my cover feature for this week's National Journal.
Internally, fewer than 10 senior staffers are permitted to advise McCain on the selection. Conversations about the process are limited to a circle of five key staff advisers and a few others, including former Sen. Trent Lott of Mississippi and Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. Campaign staffers who interact with the press are kept in the dark so that they have
plausible deniability.
Some friends of McCain believe that he made up his mind about a vice presidential short list a long time ago and is simply going through the motions to satisfy the news media's need to see the slow arc of a purposeful search. Indeed, before the campaign tamped down such talk,
advisers and aides freely speculated that Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, an evangelical Christian, was the odds-on favorite. McCain likes and trusts Pawlenty and is said to think that the governor makes an effective surrogate for the campaign. At least one ex-governor is in the GOP mix. Aides say that McCain has developed a much better relationship with Mitt Romney since the primaries.
Politics may force McCain to broaden his horizons. One of his most senior advisers is pushing McCain to consider picking a woman, perhaps former eBay CEO Meg Whitman or former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. Others have advised him to consider a running mate with top-notch national security credentials to strengthen the contention that Obama and his team are dangerously inexperienced. Several in McCain's inner circle want him to seriously consider former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, the first secretary of Homeland Security. Other McCain advisers worry about a massive convention protest if Ridge, who supports abortion rights, were on the ticket. On the other hand, some prominent Democrats, including Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, think that Ridge could help McCain put Pennsylvania, which went for Kerry, beyond Obama's reach.
From National Journal: Obama's Vet
Here's an excerpt from my cover feature for this week's National Journal.
Some Obama advisers who are not privy to the process have come up with an informal short list based on previous discussions with Obama and informed guesswork. The list includes Sebelius, with whom Obama has a warm and easy friendship; Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, one of the first elected officials to endorse Obama; Daschle, who has become one of Obama's closest advisers; Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia, who is too politically appealing to avoid vetting; and Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, another early endorser whom Obama has grown to admire. Before the campaign clamped down on leaks, Obama's friends said that Clinton remained a remote possibility, but added that her chances could improve if Obama seems to be having trouble uniting the party.
Two associates said that Daschle told Obama months ago that he did not want to be considered, but Daschle told National Journal that he wasn't adamant: "What I said was that I'm not anticipating going back in government. I didn't say I wouldn't do it. I, of course, would consider something if it were offered. But I have absolutely no desire to put my name in consideration." Dodd and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson are both interested in the job, their advisers say. Dodd recently hired Miles Lackey, who guided Edwards through the process in 2004, as his chief of staff. Edwards has said publicly he doesn't want the job and has told friends he would not accept it. Kerry has his sights set on a national security Cabinet post, according to a close adviser.
In weighing potential VP nominees, political reporters start with politics and end with personal qualities. Obama has been advised to do the opposite. Advisers say that as he thinks about his possible choices, he will first determine whether the person would make a good vice president and, if necessary, a good president; whether the person is someone he could get
along with for eight years; and whether the person is trustworthy. Only when Obama is satisfied that the person passes those tests will he begin considering the political angles.
June 23, 2008
Catholics For Democrats
The Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate at Georgetown has some new data that shows that Catholics identify as Republicans at a lower rate than at any point since 2000, when Al Gore won the Catholic vote.
The Republicans labored mightily to disqualify John Kerry's Catholicism for conservative Catholics in 2004,and on the surface, it appears as if they succeeded: according to the 2004 exit polls, President Bush won a majority and increased his margin over 2000 by five points -- Gore won them by three points in 2000. (Note: a Pew study which I can't find online found that regular massgoers actually swung away (by three points) from President Bush in 2004, which suggests that the communion and abortion controversies weren't that relevant.)
The CARA study finds that 57% of US Catholic adults identity as Democrats or Democratic leaners, while 40% identify as Republicans or Republican leaners. (69% of Hispanic Catholics are Democratically inclined.) The shift from 2004 holds across all attitudinal levels, including frequency of mass attendance and the degree to which Catholics rely on doctrine i.e., the catholicity of Catholics, age, and gender.
Of course, the question of Catholic presidential votes has always been more of a "where" than a "who for" -- Obama can win Catholics in concentrated urban areas and in the Northeast cleanly; in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, in parts of Western Iowa, in Missouri, he has work to do. As George Marlin noted in his 2004 tome called "The American Catholic Voter," the Catholic flight out of the New Deal Coalition (and, geographically, out of the inner cities) was driven by cultural factors and racial tension. Obama is black and a cultural liberal;
There are plenty of Catholics in the Southwest, too -- they are among John McCain's target audiences. It's true that Catholics generally favored Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race, but there are no studies I am aware of which shed any light on the degree to which Catholic voters voted as Catholics first in the primaries.
In 2004, there was a lot of talk among conservatives about the great Catholic-Evangelical coming together. What happens in 2008?
Charlie Black's Kinsleyian Gaffe
McCain adviser Charlie Black "deeply regret[s] the comments" he made in Fortune Magazine -- "they were inappropriate. I recognize that John McCain has devoted his entire adult life to protecting his country and placing its security before every other consideration.” Black, in response to a question -- see the context below -- told the truth as he sees it. In the event of a terrorist attack, would McCain benefit? Black gave a straightforward answer. In our post 9/11 etiquette, campaign advisers are never supposed to answer questions like that, even if they are questions which we journalists get all the time... and we know that our subjects ponder often. (Obama spokesman Bill Burton called Black's comments a "disgrace." )
Let's put aside our Humean selves and ask: is Black right? When existential worries predominate, will voters flock to the security blanket provided by a guy with decades of national security experience? Or will they blame McCain by proxy?
Not America's dependence on foreign oil? Not climate change? Not the crushing cost of health care? Eventually McCain gets around to mentioning all three of those. But he starts by deftly turning the economy into a national security issue - and why not? On national security McCain wins. We saw how that might play out early in the campaign, when one good scare, one timely reminder of the chaos lurking in the world, probably saved McCain in New Hampshire, a state he had to win to save his candidacy - this according to McCain's chief strategist, Charlie Black. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December was an "unfortunate event," says Black. "But his knowledge and ability to talk about it reemphasized that this is the guy who's ready to be Commander-in-Chief. And it helped us." As would, Black concedes with startling candor after we raise the issue, another terrorist attack on U.S. soil. "Certainly it would be a big advantage to him," says Black.
Energy In The Executive
John McCain, for once, is sticking to a theme, and that appears to be a step in the right direction for a campaign who might have otherwise been subjected to lessons in object permanence. For the second week in a row, he's talking about energy security and the environment. Last week's news focused on McCain's newly-found support for off-shore oil exploration; (an irony: had Charlie Crist not flip-flopped, the coverage in Florida would not have been as atrocious as it was.) This week, the message is on renewables:
My administration will issue a Clean Car Challenge to the automakers of America, in the form of a single and substantial tax credit based on the reduction of carbon emissions. For every automaker who can sell a zero-emissions car, we will commit a 5,000 dollar tax credit for each and every customer who buys that car. For other vehicles, whatever type they may be, the lower the carbon emissions, the higher the tax credit. And these large tax credits will be available to everyone -- not just to those who have an accountant to explain it to them.
Furthermore, in the quest for alternatives to oil, our government has thrown around enough money subsidizing special interests and excusing failure. From now on, we will encourage heroic efforts in engineering, and we will reward the greatest success.
I further propose we inspire the ingenuity and resolve of the American people by offering a $300 million prize for the development of a battery package that has the size, capacity, cost and power to leapfrog the commercially available plug-in hybrids or electric cars. This is one dollar for every man, woman and child in the U.S. -- a small price to pay for helping to break the back of our oil dependency -- and should deliver a power source at 30 percent of the current costs.
This isn't really a gimmick, certainly not like a gas tax holiday, although it remains to be seen whether the Obama campaign can force the perception that McCain's policies are all gimmicky. Seems to me that both Obama and McCain face obstacles:
(1) With the exception of his support for ethanol subsidies, Obama generally has little to say about how to reduce gas prices in the short term largely because he and his advisers don't believe that there's much the U.S. can do to bring the prices down, short of shaming or threatening the oil companies.
(2) With his gas tax holiday, his renewable challenges, his support for nuclear energy and his support for off-shore oil drilling, McCain has a package of action verbs he can use to show votes that he is serious about fixing the problem. But with the exception of the gas tax holidays, all of his ideas would reduce carbon emissions over the long-term, and they wouldn't begin to help lower gas prices for decades. Building new nuclear plants would probably increase emissions in the short term, would require a new regulatory apparatus, will require years of testing and debate about where nuclear waste goes, and will require a massive, as of yet undiscovered shift in public opinion.
A No "Seal" Zone, Starting.....
I've had my fun with the Obama campaign's seal, and now that fun ends. I'm told that Obama recognizes that it was a silly mistake, that the universal reaction at Wacker and Michigan was, "Boy, was that dumb," and that they don't think the seal staging will matter to actual voters.
Does the press think Obama is arrogant? Yes. Does the seal represent arrogance? Only tangentially, actually. The worry for Obama's image managers is that it gives the press a pretext to call Obama arrogant, an example for them to add to a list of arrogant moments, and a way to distract them from what Obama is saying. Obama, as I've written, is certainly more confident than the average Democratic presidential candidate. He doesn't particularly care about making nice with his traveling press corps, and he is personally disciplined and self-contained. Just like McCain's staff is remarkably sensitive to how the press covers their candidate, Obama's staff is hyperattentive to Obama's public image. They want him to appear strong and presidential; they want him to appear loyal and patriotic and down-to-earth; they take a broad view of history and try to make sure that Obama falls on the right side of it; they are protective to a fault; unlike McCain, Obama generally does not operate outside his comfort zone, and his political instincts are very cautious and risk-averse. Some Obama aides are enraptured by the idea of an Obama brand that transcends politics; others, including most of those who are actually close to the candidate, are much, much more concerned with the type of hubris that all the talk of an Obama brand actually encourages.
All of which is to say that if you were to exchange brains with your typical Obama staffer, you can kind of see how designing a new seal seems cool and presidential, and you can also realize that those closest to the candidate don't vet every single stage prop that appears with the candidate, and you can feel a little sympathy for the staffer who has to explain to Valerie Jarrett just what the hell he or she was thinking when the seal was approved.
"I Don't Bend That Way"
I found his political commentary to be quotidian and his scatological humor to be pedestrian, but George Carlin was one of my favorite comedians because he loved language and especially because he delighted in its absurdity. Here is one my favorite routines:
The jokes are commonplace now, but they were his first.
Vice Presidential Searches: An Update
Both presidential campaigns are doing a very good job of keeping the progress of their vice presidential searches a secret. With respect to the most obvious question: who's on the short lists? -- answers won't be forthcoming for a while. Here's what I do know:
(1) Timing: the McCain campaign is looking at an early August date to reveal the choice; the Obama campaign is looking at early or mid-August; both campaigns are aware that the Olympics begins on August 8.
(2) Vetting -- having spoken with aides and advisers to folks I'm guessing will be on the short lists, neither candidate seems to be at the point where they've begun to formally vet a smaller selection of potential nominees. In general, only a handful of VP hopefuls on both sides are asked to submit to interviews with lawyers, to relinquish their medical records and tax returns, to alert the vetting teams to any potential scandal lurking in their pasts. It does not seem as if the major short list suspects have yet been contacted by the search teams.
(3) Winnowing -- My best guess is that both candidates are in the stage where they're reviewing open source political and personal data for any number of potential candidates and are in the process of figuring out whom they want their vice presidential search teams to approach.
Bad Info On Clinton/Obama
So I'm now told that the first Obama-Clinton campaign event won't take place in Pennsylvania after all. When I learn more, I'll pass it along.
Hubris
The Obama campaign's hubris is unflattering to the national political press corps, which is used to Democratic candidates who are indecisive, overly humble, or insecure. When was the last time a Democrat was actually confident about anything?
Barack Obama refused John McCain's town hall debate invitations, opted out of the public financing system, allowed his campaign to create his own Great Seal all for different reasons guided some the same strategic impulse: his campaign sees these as matters of style, not substance; not no way, not no how would Obama set foot on the fairly narrow turf that the McCain campaign claims as its own.
June 20, 2008
So What's The Canadian PM Doing While John McCain Visits His Country?
Here's the message of the day:
PRIME MINISTER HARPER ANNOUNCES NEW BRIDGE TO COMPLETE RING ROAD AND EASE TRAFFIC CONGESTION IN SASKATOON
June 20, 2008
Ottawa, Ontario
Prime Minister Stephen Harper, joined by Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall and Saskatoon Mayor Donald Atchison, today announced that the three levels of government are joining together to build the South River Crossing bridge and complete the Saskatoon Circle Drive Southwest Project.
“The Saskatoon Circle Drive Southwest Project will ease traffic congestion throughout the city and help keep the local and provincial economy growing by improving its connections to markets across the continent and around the world,” said the Prime Minister. “It will reduce fuel consumption and expense, improve city air quality, lower greenhouse gas emissions, and shorten commute times.”
The project includes construction of a new four-lane bridge across the South Saskatchewan River to complete the final section of the Centre City Ring Road, which will help divert commercial vehicles and other through traffic from the downtown core.
The total eligible project cost is $242.5 million. Under a three-way cost sharing arrangement, the federal and provincial governments will each contribute up to $86 million, with the City of Saskatoon contributing $70.5 million.
“This project is a testament to what can be achieved when governments embrace the true spirit of open federalism and work together to make Canada stronger, safer, and better,” Prime Minister Harper said.
The Saskatoon Circle Drive Southwest Project is part of the Building Canada Plan, the federal government’s strategy for renewing the country’s national economic infrastructure. The $33-billion undertaking is Canada’s largest infrastructure development program in over half a century.
The General Election Map
It's been a month since I first took a serious look at the general election map, so now is as good a time as any for an update.
Here's my best sense of the interviews, reportage, polling and guesswork. The big moves this month: New Hampshire is back in the tossup column. I think I may have prematurely moved it to lean Obama, but I'm getting the sense from some NH Dems that the big liberal wave has crested there. I'm also moving North Carolina from McCain's base to tilt-McCain. Several recent polls have shown Barack Obama within five points. North Carolina is a state where a huge turnout, and only a huge turnout, would make Obama competitive; he doesn't need to increase his share of the black or white professional vote, he needs to make sure that those groups vote at a higher rate relative to others. As of today, there's no evidence that Georgia can be Obama's Ohio. I'm moving Wisconsin to the lean Obama column and making Missouri a toss-up.
McCain's base states + his leaners: 220 electoral votes.
Obama's base states + his leaners: 212 electoral votes.
Tossups: 107 electoral votes.
McCain's base states -- 159 electoral votes.
Texas (34), West Virginia (5), South Carolina (8), Kentucky (8), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Louisiana (9), Arkansas (6), Wyoming (3), Idaho (4), Utah (5), Arizona (10), Alaska (3), Oklahoma (7), Kansas (6), Nebraska (5), South Dakota (3), North Dakota (3) Goergia (15)
Tilt McCain states -- 61 electoral votes.
Indiana (11) -- haven't seen a good general election poll since April
Montana (3)
North Carolina (15)
Florida (27) -- This one may be moving away from McCain, too. He's underperforming in South Florida and North Florida and getting roughly what he needs from Central Florida.
Nevada (5) -- This is an unusual state where the regular rules don't apply.
Tossups: Virginia (13), Missouri (11), Pennsylvania (21) Iowa (7), Ohio (20), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), New Hampshire (4), Michigan (17) -- 107 electoral votes
Obama's base states -- 159 electoral votes --
Washington, D.C. (3), Maryland (10), California (55), New York (31), Vermont (3), Massachusetts (12), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Rhode Island (4), Illinois (21), Hawaii (4), Maine (4)
Tilt Obama States -- 53 electoral votes
Minnesota (10) -- If Pawlenty is McCain's veep the state is marginally more in play; the GOP gets the force multiplier of the convention. Else, the state would be safe Obama.
Washington (11) -- McCain campaign wants to contend here
Oregon (7) -- McCain campaign wants to contend here
Wisconsin (10) -- Working class whites in WI vote differently than working class whites in states south of Wisconsin.
New Jersey (15) -- McCain should be doing better here.
June 19, 2008
Bauer V. Potter: The Lawyers Spar Over Whether They Sparred
Political reporters listened to a remarkable series of conference calls where two of the nation's finest lawyers argued over what the meaning of the word "aggressive" was and what the original intent of said meeting. Not exactly the KGB resident and the Berlin Chief of Station meeting, but it came close: there was misdirection, submerged motivations, suspicion, rivalry (Bauer and Potter have been on opposite sides of the campaign finance reform debate for a decade), and cryptic language. Actually, the truth is pretty plain, as almost all of the reports today will reflect. Barack Obama did not pursue aggressive negotiations with the McCain campaign over the public financing system fo rthe general election. He reversed his position wearing just a figleaf over his naugty motives, but almost no one -- not even, privately, some McCain advisers, berudges him for being ambitious and acting in the service of his ambitoins. In another era, they might even buy his argument: "OK, so I went back on my word. But I discovered a new, and better, public financing system and I'm going with that." In another era, McCain aides might have bought the Obama arugment that McCain began the general election months earlier and has been raising and spending money exclusively for the purpose, and that, by obtaining loans on the basis of the presumed primary financing windful, McCain had it both ways and enjoyed it both ways.
Unclear is whether one of the lawyers, McCain's general counsel Trevor Potter, was essentially sandbagged by the Obama campaign into an unadvertised discussion of public financing that, inter alia, would later be used as the sufficient and necessary "aggressive" negotiations that Mr. Obama had promised. But it is hard to believe that a 40 minute conversation where at least two different subjects were discussed was tantamount to a vigorous pursuit of a negotiation, but it should have also been clear from the hints that Mr. Bauer dropped in the conversation that Obama was not inclined to opt in. In any event, Bauer says he was tasked by the campaign to conduct negotiations and he said he did what was asked. His tasking did not include a notation -- ("Dear Bob: make sure the negotiations are aggressive. From: D. Plouffe"), and Bauer's take away was pretty clear: the McCain campaign didn't really want to negotiate. Potter said he had no idea that the meeting was intended to give Bauer a clue as to whether the McCain campaign would indeed be willing to bargain.
No need to go over the timelines as presented by the lawyers. Both Potter and his Obama counterpart, Robert Bauer, listened to the conference calls live, and so their responses and clams are presented unvarnished.
The upshot here is that Obama is going to have at least $100 million to spend that the RNC and John McCain and whatever 527s exist will not. Add in the Democrats' labor spending, and that advantage is probably at least $200 million. Financial disparities tend not to matter unless they are huge, and this year, they are huge. McCain will need all that much more of a moment in a debate, or a major Obama gaffe, to perservere.
Kudos, by the way, to the media for reporting this straight. All three evening newscasts, as the RNC noticed, made sure to note Obama's reversal.
John McCain tells reporters that he will accept public financing for the general election. Here's a pool report from Laura Meckler of the Wall Street Journal.
"On the Straight Talk Express from the airport to the hotel in Minneapolis, Sen. John McCain said that his campaign has decided that it will accept public financing for the general election. “We will take public financing,” Asked what his thinking was, he said, “Because we decided to take public financing.”
McCain also expanded on comments yesterday about whether he would reconsider opposition to drilling in ANWR. He said if given new information he would of course consider it, but that he remains opposed to drilling.
On the bus, most of the questioning was done by two local reporters. Gov. Tim Pawlenty and his wife, Mary, were aboard, and one of the reporters asked McCain in several ways whether Pawlenty was being considered for VP. McCain praised the governor but declined to say whether he was on a short list or give any other insight into the matter. He said there really isn’t a short list.
The other reporter asked a series of questions along the lines of “if you could have any super power, what power would you want” and “what is the worst thing you ever did as a youth. (McCain didn’t name a super power but spoke of his awe for Mohammed Ali; he could not manage to decide which of the things he did at the Naval Academy would be the worst.) He was also asked what he wanted his epithet to be: “Served his country honorably.” Favorite TV shows: He mentioned “24,” “The Tudors” and “Damages.”
Obama's Financing Decision
Why Did The Obama Campaign Choose Today?
The campaign's national finance committee meets tonight in Chicago. Kind of a way to tee off the summer agenda, no?
McCain has previously opposed increased deep sea drilling off the coasts of Florida and other coastal states.
For years, McCain has opposed drilling for oil in Alaska's Arctic National Refuge Area (ANWR).
But during today's town hall meeting, McCain said he'd be willing to reconsider that stance.
“I would be more than happy to examine it again,” McCain said.
McCain's Counsel: We Never Negotiated.
I asked John McCain's campaign general counsel, Trevor Potter, whether he agreed with an Obama campaign aide who told me that "our campaign counsels met and it was immediately clear that McCain's campaign had no interest in the possibility of an agreement" for the general election.
"This is not true!," Potter writes in an e-mail. "I met with [Obama counsel] Bob Bauer on a different subject (a joint panel we had yesterday in Rhode Island sponsored by the National Assoc. of Attys General) about 10 days ago. During that meeting, he asked what Sen. McCain’s position was on public general election funding, and I said we were for it, and hoped Sen. Obama would participate as well. There was absolutely NO discussion of “negotiations” about participating—the word was never mentioned."
"What was odd is that Bob Bauer then made the argument to me that neither candidate needed public funding—that Sen. McCain could raise as much for the general election as Sen. Obama “within $5 or 10 million”. I responded that Sen. McCain believed in the general election public funding system, and thought it was good for the country."
"So—no discussion of “negotiations” and no rejection of negotiations—only a clear statement by me that Sen. McCain hoped both candidates would participate in the system. If they wanted to “negotiate,” they NEVER mentioned it to me."
Obama Airs First General Election Ad
Barack Obama's first general election advertisement virtually screams its intention from the first line of script: he IS a patriot, damn it, and he has regular guy values and priorities to prove it.
"Country Love" is 60 seconds long and will air in 18 states at a cost to the campaign of, and i'm estimating, more than 1.5 million per week; if he's saturating the airwaves, the figure is closer to $3 million.
The ad will air in Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia, per the campaign.
Note the provocative references to welfare reform and tax-cutting.
Here's the script: "OBAMA: I’m Barack Obama. America is a country of strong families and strong values. My life’s been blessed by both. I was raised by a single mom and my grandparents. We didn’t have much money, but they taught me values straight from the Kansas heartland where they grew up. Accountability and self-reliance. Love of country. Working hard without making excuses. Treating your neighbor as you’d like to be treated. It’s what guided me as I worked my way up – taking jobs and loans to make it through college. It’s what led me to pass up Wall Street jobs and go to Chicago instead, helping neighborhoods devastated when steel plants closed. That’s why I passed laws moving people from welfare to work, cut taxes for working families and extended health care for wounded troops who’d been neglected. I approved this message because I’ll never forget those values, and if I have the honor of taking the oath of office as President, it will be with a deep and abiding faith in the country I love."
McCain's Secret Service Code Name
is, according to a source who knows, "Phoenix."
It was McCain's choice. Associations: rising from the ashes. Arizona. Etc.
Cindy McCain has also picked a code name. It probably also begins with a "P".
As has been previously and extensively reported, Barack Obama is "Renegade." His wife Michelle is "Renaissance."
No comment from the McCain campaign.
McCain Campaign Responds To Obama: "Typical Politician."
From the campaign:
“Today, Barack Obama has revealed himself to be just another typical politician who will do and say whatever is most expedient for Barack Obama.
“The true test of a candidate for President is whether he will stand on principle and keep his word to the American people. Barack Obama has failed that test today, and his reversal of his promise to participate in the public finance system undermines his call for a new type of politics.
“Barack Obama is now the first presidential candidate since Watergate to run a campaign entirely on private funds. This decision will have far-reaching and extraordinary consequences that will weaken and undermine the public financing system.”
Some Background On The Obama Decision
From an Obama aide:
"[During] the past couple of weeks, our campaign counsels met and it was immediately clear that McCain's campaign had no interest in the possibility of an agreement. When asked about the RNC's months of raising and spending for the general election, McCain's campaign could only offer its expectation that the Obama campaign would probably, sooner or later, catch up. And shortly thereafter, Senator McCain signaled to the 527s that they were free to run wild, without objection."
Obama Opts Out: What Happens Now
(1) Does John McCain try to turn Obama's decision into a cri de coeur? The media will not help him; instead of focusing on Obama's circumstance-based decision to go back on his implied promise, they'll probably take Obama's side. It's true that voters generally don't pay attention to this type of thing, but if McCain puts it front and center on his mantle, will they?
(2) The potential money gap in the general election is huge -- Obama could raise as much as $300m, and the McCain campaign/RNC budget team doesn't anticipating spending more than $150m.
(3) The McCain campaign did not expect Obama to announce his decision this early, and so they were caught unawares.
(4) How will the "reform" community react?
Obama Opts Out
As expected, Barack Obama has decided to opt out of the public financing system for the general election, declaring his "independence" in a video he sent to supporters this morning.
It's not an easy decision, and especially because I support a robust system of public financing of elections. But the public financing of presidential elections as it exists today is broken, and we face opponents who've become masters at gaming this broken system. John McCain's campaign and the Republican National Committee are fueled by contributions from Washington lobbyists and special interest PACs. And we've already seen that he's not going to stop the smears and attacks from his allies running so-called 527 groups, who will spend millions and millions of dollars in unlimited donations.
Obama will NOT ask his supporters to cap their donations, an idea that had been floated by some campaign advisers. That would have been too risky, apparently.
The McCain campaign will point out that Obama went back on his word, and Obama will point to his millions of individual donors.
June 18, 2008
McCain To Iowa Tomorrow
Sen. John McCain will tear up his Thursday schedule and head to Columbus Junction, Iowa tomorrow to inspect flood damage. President Bush will also be in Iowa tomorrow, but the two won't cross paths.
Obama's NAFTA Tone
Another View Of "Deep Sea"
From a Republican aide:
"Not to align myself with the Frank Luntzes of the world, but there’s a good reason to say “deep sea” rather than “offshore” … “offshore” makes it sound like we’re talking about putting oil rigs right off the coast, like the ones you can see from the beaches of Southern California. We’re talking about at least 50 miless out to sea. The horizon line is 11 miles. I think it’s important to make it clear – particularly in places like Florida - that we’re not talking about something that will screw up the view from anyone’s vacation home or a beachfront resort."
The Mayflower Compact
What's on the agenda for next week's donor confab featuring Hillary Clinton's national finance team and Barack Obama?
Based on discussions with Clinton donors, here's what I think will happen:
(1) Obama will be very well recieved; the donors will be polite; they will not grill him.
(2) Whether the meeting is a success may be determined by how many top-ticket donors and raisers show up -- those who've raised more than, say, $250,000 for Clinton. If they're absent, they're unconvinced. And these are the folks who generally drive the contributions.
(3) Will there be a separate, smaller meeting for the absolute upper echelon of Clinton donors?
(4) The donors expect Barack Obama to tell him how he plans to help Sen. Clinton retire her campaign debt. There's concern that Obama hasn't said a peep about the subject so far.
(5) No money will be exchaned; the event is NOT a fundraiser.
McCain To Appear With The Bushes
George H.W. Bush and Barbara Bush, that is. They're co-hosting a 7/31 fundraiser in his honor at Walker's Point in Kennebunkport, ME.
For Obama, The Muslim Issue Tightrope Snaps
Politics has found its Jack-In-The-Box story for the day, courtesy of Ben Smith's article on two Muslim women who were denied the chance to sit behind Obama because they looked too Muslim-y. The story itself is fine and worth the read, and my political take on it is banal: of course there is a sensitivity within the Obama campaign anything that fuels the rumors that Obama isn't a Christian. (I half expected Obama to join the First Christian Evangelical Catholic Christ Church of All Saints when he quit Trinity). Ben's reportage makes it clear that there's a consequence to being too sensitive; not only do your volunteers pick up on the vibes, they take it upon themselves to "protect" Obama, and in doing so, inevitably raise the very issue that they seek to avoid. (Remember when a staffer planted a question for Hillary?)
The Log Cabin Republicans aren't sure whether they plan to endorse John McCain, or whether extending a presidential endorsement is even necessary. The Arizona chapter endorsed McCain's re-election in 2004. Here's an e-mail sent to LCR members calling McCain an "inclusive" leader. When I last checked with the group and with the McCain, they were working to find a mutually convenient time for McCain to meet with the LCR board.
An Oil Split
Hey, that was real nice of President Bush to make sure and promote the benefits of drilling in ANW R in his presser this a.m. From the McCain campaign's perspective, they can now cleanly distance themselves from POTUS in part and agree with him, in part. "Well, I thought the president had some good ideas and some bad ideas..." That sort of thing.
Oil Drilling = Deep Sea Exploration
You know what I like?
I like it that John McCain refers to drilling for oil offshore as drilling for oil offshore, and not "deep sea exploration," which is what the Frank Luntzes of the world would have him say. It's more honest that way. Straightforward.
A side note: so McCain changed his mind about an issue. He's moving away from the default environmentalist position, so his "flipflopping" is automatically an issue. Criticizing the policy is an appropriate way to approach it if you're an Obama supporter, but why begrudge the man for changing his mind as conditions (our general awareness of climate change, the Iraq war, gas prices, etc) have changed? Perhaps he changed his mind for the wrong reason... but that's an argument that one has to make, not just assume.
On Gitmo, How Far Apart Are McCain And Obama? (Updated)
There are clear policy differences between John McCain and Barack Obama on national security, and beyond that, their approaches differ conceptually -- Obama is inclined to see terrorism as a sequence of criminal acts that can be combated with a broad range of policies, including offensive military engagement overseas. McCain sees it as a larger, coordinated, military-esque assault on the US that requires, first, a military response. But on the question of what should be done to the Gitmo detainees, the candidates' rhetorical differences are greater than their policy differences. In the wake of last week's SCOTUS ruling, McCain seems to believe that the existing set of laws was more than sufficient to protect the rights of detainees. His concern now, based on what he told Dana Bash yesterday, is procedural, rather than constitutional: the detainees' having access to habeas in our federal courts would create a tangled web of lawsuits, would expose intelligence secrets, and would needlessly draw out these legal proceedings.
DANA BASH: you said it, he was very strong in saying that he thought that decision was one of the worst decisions that the supreme court has ever made in its history. again, a pretty strong statement there. obviously the question isn't so much about the past for john mccain and barack obama, it's what about the future? this is something regardless of how you feel about the substance of the decision, that it has created a legal mess. when i asked john mccain is about that. the reality is, as president, he would have to deal with it. regardless of what you think about the decision, the reality is now there's a legal mess and it's going to be in the lap of the next president. if you are president, what next? what do you do?
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN: i think maybe legislation working with the congress, which would define more narrowly the habeas corpus rights of people who we have detained. it's very broad right now. at least try to provide some definition of that so we're not ending up in endless lawsuits. already the detainees have brought suit on diet, on reading material, on all kinds of other things that are certainly not central to what we have detained them for. so i would hope that we could at least do that.
Don't usually pay this much attention to campaign press releases, but we can learn a lot about a candidate's worldview by looking at his sources of advice. Today, Obama is rolling out his National Security Working Group.... potential cabinet members and agency heads can be found here...as can some former Clintonites.
* Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
* Senator David Boren, former Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
* Secretary of State Warren Christopher
* Greg Craig, former director of the State Department Office of Policy Planning
* Secretary of the Navy Richard Danzig
* Representative Lee Hamilton, former Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee
* Deputy Attorney General Eric Holder
* Dr. Tony Lake, former National Security Advisor
* Senator Sam Nunn, former Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
* Secretary of Defense William Perry
* Dr. Susan Rice, former Assistant Secretary of State
* Representative Tim Roemer, 9/11 Commissioner
* Jim Steinberg, former Deputy National Security Advisor
The Obamas and US
US senior editor and long-time Atlantic reader Henry Seltzer passes along news of a six-page Obama family profile with the headline: Michelle Obama: Why Barack Loves Her
Bounce-obsessives can calm themselves: Quinnipiac's out with surveys of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania this morning showing Obama gains in each state as compared to the last time Q-PAC polled. The sample sizes are huge -- more than 1,400 likely votes in each state, although I'm a little wary of likely voter samples at this stage. No matter:
The crosstabs: Obama's leading among white voters in PA, and his multi-ethnic coalition puts him over the top elsewhere. He leads by double digits about women everywhere; men are split evenly. The economy is the major issue in each state; President Bush's approval rating is highest (27%) in Florida.
Obama's getting the votes of 13% of '04 Bush voters in Florida and Ohio, and 19% in Pennsylvania. McCain gets the support of 24% of Clinton voters in PA and roughly equivalent percentages in OH and FL. So, from O's perspective, maybe it doesn't really matter that a quarter of Clinton Democrats turned Red.
Not really, but we've figured out where MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty is vacationing: the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness near Lake Superior.
June 17, 2008
A Huffington Post Feature That Even Tucker Bounds Will Like
They're posting all the campaign conference calls online.
PSD, HRC, and BO
Obama Vice Presidential Team Meets
Sen. Barack Obama is at the Democratic National Committee right now for one meeting, and two floors away, his vice presidential search committee chairs -- Caroline Kennedy and Eric Holder -- are meeting with prominent Democrats, including Rep. Charles Rangel and Rep. George Miller.
Ellen Malcolm In Chicago
According to an Obama campaign source, Emily's List founder Ellen Malcolm visited Barack Obama's campaign headquaters in Chicago today for meetings with campaign manager David Plouffe and others.
Malcolm has been a Clinton stalwart from the start; a few days ago, she formally announced her support for Obama and warned him that he had work to do with blue collar women.
The ABC News / Washington Post poll suggests that McCain is trouncing Obama among white women; among all women, Obama has a single digit lead.
Canvassing And Fundraising Conjoined
A trusted reader known personally by this columnist writes in to ask about an unusual canvassing technique she discovered last night, when a friend greeted an Obama volunteer at the door to her home in Arlington, Virginia. At first, the male volunteer asked her who she was supporting, if anyone. Then, he asked her for a $200 donation on Obama's behalf.
It is very unusual for a presidential campaign to solicit donors as part of their door-to-door canvassing program; is this an isolated case of a volunteer departing from the script? Or is this strategy?
I put the question to the Obama campaign. A spokesman for Virginia State Director Mitch Stewart said that the conjoining of what's known in the trades as "IDs" and fundraising is not standard operating procedure and to his knowledge, was not what the volunteers were instructed to do.
In any event, it ought to impress folks that the Obama campaign is canvassing this early in Northern Virginia -- in the middle of the week, no less.
That's the official slogan of the McCain campaign, and it makes its first formal appearance this morning in a new McCain television advertisement about global warming and the environment. Where Obama is associated with change, the McCain campaign wants McCain to be associated with those three words, much like Bill Clinton aimed to be associated with "hope, growth and opportunity." Or was it: "responsibility, opportunity and community?"
Kerry Blasts McCain's "Iraq War mindset"
Remember when John Kerry and John McCain were allies? Friends? Potential ticket-mates? Comity, no more.
"What John McCain has done in his comments** ... is that he has fully embraced willfully, openly, fully embraced the failed, tragic policy of the Bush Administration over the last seven and a half years," Kerry said on a conference call today. "He's really defending a policy that is indefensible. He's proving every day that he doesn't understand Iraq, or the Middle East, or the war on terrorism."
McCain is embracing " George Bush post 9-11 war of choice strategy," of which he is "Washington's biggest supporter." McCain "failed to learned the lessons of 9/11. He is the candidate of the Iraq War mindset, a mindset that completely misunderstands and dangerously underestimates the threats of the 21st century."
** = Actually, these were comments offered by McCain adviser Randy Scheunemann, who said on an earlier conference call that Obama, in commenting on terrorism here, was a "perfect manifestation" of the pre-9/11 mindset. Richard Clarke, the former NSC official in charge of counterterrorism, dismissed the binary choice between treating terrorism as a law enforcement matter or a military matter, and Kerry noted that every Democrat in the Senate voted for war in Afghanistan. Both Clarke and Kerry insisted that Obama's approach to terrorism was comprehensive and not limited to any branch or single function of government: law enforcement, military, intelligence gathering.
Quote For The Day
McCain national security adviser Randy Scheunemann:
"Senator Obama is a prefect manifestation of a September 10th mindset."
Seems like the McCain campaign has been waiting for Sen. Obama to discuss the intersection of terrorism and law enforcement; they were well-prepared to pounce on it as a perfect manifestation of what they believe is Obama's inexperience. So far, Obama hasn't responded, but I get the sense from his campaign that they're eager to have this debate but just not today, when they're rather focus on McCain's newfound appreciation for drilling for oil and natural gas off the coasts.
The Obama campaign is sending around this clip from McCain on 5/5, where he says he'd be "glad" to look at a winfdall profit tax, which certainly jibes with strong language he's going to use tonight.
Images Of The Election: A Pin In Dallas
As seen at the Republican Party of Texas's state convention in Dallas, according to the Dallas Morning News.
After September 11, there was a period of consensus among those in power in Washington that terrorism, until that time treated as a crime and thus a matter best dealt with by the justice system, was obviously an existential phenomenon that had all the hallmarks of sovereign malevolent force that was best combated by the military and, uh, military justice. Not since...ever... has the issue been clarified for the electorate.
Barack Obama:
And, you know, let's take the example of Guantanamo. What we know is that, in previous terrorist attacks -- for example, the first attack against the World Trade Center, we were able to arrest those responsible, put them on trial. They are currently in U.S. prisons, incapacitated. And the fact that the administration has not tried to do that has created a situation where not only have we never actually put many of these folks on trial, but we have destroyed our credibility when it comes to rule of law all around the world, and given a huge boost to terrorist recruitment in countries that say, 'Look, this is how the United States treats Muslims.' So that, I think, is an example of something that was unnecessary. We could have done the exact same thing, but done it in a way that was consistent with our laws
John McCain's foreign policy guru, Randy Scheunemann:
"Barack Obama's belief that we should treat terrorists as nothing more than common criminals demonstrates a stunning and alarming misunderstanding of the threat we face from radical Islamic extremism. Obama holds up the prosecution of the terrorists who bombed the World Trade Center in 1993 as a model for his administration, when in fact this failed approach of treating terrorism simply as a matter of law enforcement rather than a clear and present danger to the United States contributed to the tragedy of September 11th. This is change that will take us back to the failed policies of the past and every American should find this mindset troubling."
Let us concede that both Obama and McCain's positions encompass shades of gray. But the difference is fairly fundamental, no? McCain's response to the SCOTUS ruling last week that Gitmo detainees were due the right of habeas corpus was to say, in effect, judges shouldn't determine which terrorists belong in custody; this is a war; the executive branch should. Obama's response was basically the opposite.
A Final World On Tim Russert's Place In Our Universe
In the wake of Tim Russert's I've noticed among a lot of my journalistic friends an enormous amount of introspection and self-assessment, even among those who, like me, did not know Tim well. It is a perfectly appropriate to remark upon and even to criticize, the fact that the media treats a death in its family like a death in its family. But Tim's death seems to have hit the Washington political community by an order of magnitude greater than the passing of a loved one.
Here is one reason why I think that this is so, and it has to do with the general esteem that professional political journalists of all stripes have for themselves in relation to their profession. The truth is that most of us -- well, maybe I'll just speak for myself, but I think it this opinion is common -- are exquisitely aware of how our journalism doesn't always live up to our standards; how it can debase the debate discourse than enhance it; how it can magnify idiotic side stories and render as insignificant the most pressing questions of the day.
There were a lot of folks in town, and I consider myself one of them to some degree, who emulate Tim Russert consciously and conspicuously. Tim Russert -- as Tim Russert -- helped to build and sustain the professional bearings and even the confidence of many political journalists because he got it right. He did it right. (It can be done right!) We loved Tim's method and style -- and not only his method and style, but also the notion that esteem for him was near universal (and so it could also be for us) -- and that he was able to enjoy the game of politics without guilt and still be a figure of enormous respect. The fact that one guy was capable of getting it more or less right... gave a lot of us hope that we might one day be able to cover politics meaningfully, too.
So, take that hub of hope away, and a good part of many political journalists in down just froze. When Peter Jennings, whom I did know, passed away, this same paralysis took hold. Eventually, it broke, and some ABC News staffers I know began to hold themselves to higher-order standards as a way of honoring PJ's memory and making sure that his standards did not die with him.
Your Electorate, Folks
ABC News and the Washington Post are out with their first post-primary poll, and, as should not be surprising, it is fairly identical to the results found by CNN, Fox, USA Today, Gallup, CBS News, NBC News. (These polls are the gold standard; with Gallup tracking daily, wouldn't it be better if the networks put their resources into state polls?).
There is a remarkable consistency across all these polls, one that helps us draw certain boundaries around the electorate. There will always be variation, either random or events-driven, but the rough plot lines of the next few months are clear:
(1) McCain runs better among Republicans than Obama does with Democrats. The difference is not that big -- eight points in the CBS News survey, if I recall, and five points here -- but it is noticeable. This is probably an after-effect of a contested primary; it may also have to do with racism, with unease about Obama's resume, and with unease with the content of his message (butter versus bread.) There are more Democrats than Republicans, so Obama comes out about even, if a little bit ahead. Given the composition of the electorate, he should be doing a little bit better among Democratic women, among white Catholics in the Midwest and among national security-conscious swing voters.
(2) Independents are split almost evenly among the two candidates, suggesting that McCain's reformer/unorthodox branding is sticky. In this environment, Obama should outperforming McCain among independents, and he isn't. This raises a question: is the primary contrast argument of the Obama campaign -- that a McCain presidency is tantamount to a third Bush term -- not yet credible to independents? Maybe -- not yet working? I know that the Obama campaign and the DNC have survey data about McBush and have run focus groups about it, but so far, it persuades the choir, not the congregation.
(3) McCain's tricky balance. Democrats who support Obama are more enthusiastic than then are Republicans who support John McCain. The risk for McCain is not that these folks will switch, it's that, convinced he won't win, they'll stay at work on Election Day because they have no special motivation to vote for him. How does McCain give them the motive? Several options: he changes positions and becomes more of an orthodox Republican and ignites some sort of brand loyalty. Or he could argue that electing Obama represents a clear and present danger to the security of the country, to the prospect for economic growth, to the status of the family, etc. The campaign seems to be halfway there, arguing that Obama is untested and inexperienced and therefore he represents an etc. etc. etc.... but
Obamanology: Interpreting Patti Solis Doyle's Hiring
There's a straight reading of her hiring; there's a political reading of her hiring, and then there's a conspiratorial reading of her hiring. My best guess is that the truth lies between the straight reading and the conspiratorial reading.
The straight reading: Patti Solis Doyle was hired because she fit what the campaign was looking for, she knows every Democrat in the universe, and can be trusted and discreet. As Mo Elleithee, a Clinton aide, said in a statement:
“Patti will be an asset and good addition to the Obama campaign. After nearly two decades in political life, she brings with her the ability to tap an extensive network that will be a huge asset to Senator Obama. As Senator Clinton has said, we’re all going to do our part to help elect Senator Obama as the next President of the United States,
The political reading: Obama is paving the way for Clinton to join the ticket.
The conspiratorial reading: there are a hundred political reasons to hire Patti Solis Doyle, but only one reason to put her in this specific job. It's not as if she's uniquely qualified for it, unless that unique qualification is the ability to disqualify Hillary Clinton.
My best reporting indicates that Obama has not figured out whom he wants on the ticket AND that he is NOT going to put Clinton on the ticket unless for some reason he has to. He has no incentive to deliberately send an F-U to Clinton world.
I suspect that the truth here is either
(a) that folks in the Obama campaign did not anticipate the reaction of some major Clinton donors and aides. After all, Hillaryland right now is beset by a case of recriminitus; After all, blaming Solis Doyle for the campaign's missteps is very much in right now; even neutral observers concede that her mistakes were major, and she has few defenders left. (Although: question: who made PSD her campaign manager?) Or..
(b) maybe that the Obama campaign did anticipate the reaction and yet could not be bothered to care what a few Clinton donors and former aides think. There are lots of Obama aides and advisers who don't think that the feelings of Hillary Clinton's inner circle are terribly important right now.
Obama On His Reach-Across-The-Aisle Record
From Jake Tapper, here is a question that the McCain campaign has been waiting for a reporter to ask Barack Obama:
TAPPER: You and Senator John McCain are both talking about the need to reach across the partisan divide.
OBAMA: Right.
TAPPER: It's not difficult to look at Senator McCain's record and see examples of times when he reached across the partisan divide at great political risk to himself: immigration reform, Gang of 14, campaign finance reform. I know that you have worked across the aisle.
OBAMA: Absolutely.
TAPPER: But have you ever worked across the aisle in such a way that entailed a political risk for yourself?
OBAMA: Well, look, when I was doing ethics reform legislation, for example, that wasn't popular with Democrats or Republicans. So any time that you actually try to get something done in Washington, it entails some political risks. But I think the basic principle which you pointed out is that I have consistently said, when it comes to solving problems, like nuclear proliferation or reducing the influence of lobbyists in Washington, that I don't approach this from a partisan or ideological perspective.
And the same is true when it comes to the economy. The same is true when it comes to national security. You know, this administration, the Bush administration, has made, for example, the war on terror into a sharply partisan issue.
But the truth is, is that I admire some of the foreign policy of George Bush's father. And I've said so before. I think that there's a tradition of us working together to make sure that we are dealing with the threats that are out there and that we are building a consensus here in the United States. That's the kind of approach I intend to take when I'm president of the United States.
Watch for the McCain campaign to make this one of the centerpieces of their change argument -- that McCain has taken stands that caused him to go out of the GOP comfort zone and Obama has never taken a risk on anything that would cause him trouble with liberals.
Reformer v. Reformer
Some Clarification On McCain's Cap
So here's what I think John McCain was referring to when he said that he opposes mandatory caps.
The reporter who asked McCain the question referred to a new European plan to impose mandatory targets on renewable energy. McCain opposes that, apparently. But what's confusing is that McCain answered by noting that he favored cap-n-trade instead, which is kind of like answering a question about your team's defensive line by referring to their offensive line. Defense: how you limit carbon emissions. Offense: how you promote renewable energy resources. Incidentally, and again, I write this without a detailed understanding of environmental policy: is it contradictory to tour the country and lecture us about reducing our dependence on foreign oil and on petroleum generally and then, at the same time, propose to allow states to find patches of oil (and natural gas) offshore and exploit them? What am I not getting here?
Solis Doyle's Hiring A Pretext To A Unity Ticket?
That's the implication of an unnamed Clinton insider (aren't they all unnamed these days?) and of Jerome Armstrong.
I just don't think the evidence supports that argument. First, Patti Solis Doyle and Hillary Clinton have some issues to work out between them. I don't know if they've spoken within the past seven days, but they certainly did not speak for several months prior to that point. One would presume that the Obama campaign would first offer the job to Maggie Williams if they're intending to pave the way for an Obama-Clinton campaign. They did not. Thirdly, Solis Doyle worked in Hillaryland for 17 years. She is identified with Clinton. She is an obvious advocate for Clinton. Perhaps I've read too many Charles McCarry's novels here, but I don't think the Obama campaign would telegraph their bosses thinking like this, unless you assume that they assume that no one would assume that they would telegraph their bosses thinking like this. Fourthly, Solis Doyle will not be a part of the vetting or selection process; like other Obama advisers, she can certainly voice her opinion about Hillary Clinton to her boss.
To me, the selection of Solis Doyle reads a sign that Obama hasn't made up his mind but is confident enough in his decision-making capabilities to appoint someone so obviously identified with one of the candidates as that candidate's chief of staff. In point of fact, the vice presidential staff that John Kerry put together before he picked John Edwards included partisans for several potential nominees.
When Mandatory Isn't?
Driving around Virginia this afternoon, I caught Rush Limbaugh on a tear about John McCain's refusal to endorse drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. McCain, in a press conference, just would not change his mind, but he offered a carrot: he wants to lift the federal moratorium on states exploring for oil off-shore and even incentivize them to do so. There are cavets to the carrot; this would do nothing to help bring down gas prices in the short term, and McCain, by opposing various drilling proposals off states like Florida and California has already taken several big states out of the equation.
Anyway, McCain plans to spend the next several weeks on the energy crisis. I did catch something interesting. Asked about mandatory emissions caps in Europe, he demurred, saying that "I would not impose a mandatory cap at this time." He emphasized "at this time" a little bit. Is there a big difference between "cap and trade" and a mandatory cap? Europe's cap and trade system didn't work very well (emissions rose because too many credits were handed out), and the "cap" across the pond is mandatory, Just like the one McCain and Joe Lieberman proposed. I am NOT an expert here; maybe I'm missing something, so feel free to read me in, as they say. But hasn't McCain already endorsed mandatory emissions caps?
Because Mark Sanford refused to endorse John McCain ahead of the 2008 South Carolina presidential primary, conventional wisdom mongers have all but ruled out his chances at becoming the Republican vice presidential nominee. What these mongers don't know is that McCain accepted Sanford's non-endorsement early on, and the two had numerous and regular conversations throughout the primary. Sanford believed that his position as governor required him to be neutral; he announced that position, he stuck to it, and McCain respects him for it. There are some McCain advisers who believe that Sanford was hedging his bets, but all the information I have suggests that McCain does not hold a grudge against Sanford. As a national Republican figure, Sanford has kept his profile low, but he has started to increase his visibility. He keynoted the Republican Party of Arkansas's dinner last week; he is hosting the Republican Governors Association summer retreat this weekend in Charleston. He's soon to speak to Republicans in Michigan. Last month, he attended the National Summit on Competitiveness in Chicago and spoke alongside two cabinet secretaries. And he joined Kathleen Sebelius at the Bilderberg Society meeting in Virginia two weeks ago.
The Atlantic's Boldest
A post this morning transposed numbers on a poll. In Nevada, John McCain leads by two; he does not trail by two.
A post about former National Counterterrorism Center director John Brennan on March 22 contained several errors. Mr. Brennan did not found a consulting company; he joined a company that started in 1990. And the employees mentioned in the post had security clearance levels higher than "Secret."
Al Gore Resurfaces (In Politics)
Former Vice President Al Gore will campaign with Barack Obama tonight in Detroit. See Gore's letter to Obama's supporters after the jump.
Pardon the interruption on blogging; I have several meetings off campus today.
One bit of information I'd like to write about is the news that the Obama campaign has hired Patti Solis Doyle to be chief of staff for the vice presidential candidate, whoever she or he may be, and Stephanie Cutter to be Michelle Obama's chief of staff. Solis Doyle's hiring is best seen in the context of her longtime friendship with David Axelrod, her admiration for Obama (which was palpable even when she was Hillary Clinton's campaign manager) and her Chicago roots. Not for nothing will she be the campaign's highest ranking Latina. Stephanie Cutter and Michelle Obama both seem the type of people who disdain nonsense and silliness and silly journalism. Cutter is sharp, has solid relationships with many national political reporters, and knows how to harangue journalists she considers to be unfair. Michelle Obama has long needed a bigger team, and Cutter would seem to be an ideal choice to lead it.
McCain Courts The Clintonites
So John McCain likes Alito and Scalia, but to Democratic audiences, he notes that he voted for Justices Breyer and Ginsberg too:
Bower said he'd liked McCain's answer on judges, in which he "pointed out that he supported Bill Clinton with both Ginsberg and Breyer."
Another person who was present, but asked not to be named to avoid conflict with fellow Democrats, said he'd pressed a McCain staffer on McCain's position on same-sex marriage.
The staffer "said it was the same as [John] Kerry's position," he said.
The exculpatory answer is that there's a difference between supporting qualified nominees and prefering Alito and Scalia. But, as MK notes, "this is the sort of leftward wink that will drive conservatives crazy, with reason."
Also, the McCain staffer who told a Democrat that McCain's position on same-sex marriage was like John Kerry's is clearly incorrect. McCain and Kerry might oppose same-sex marriage but only in the same way that they both supported the origin of -- and then condemned the Rumsfeldian prosecution -- of the Iraq war. Kerry strongly supports civil unions for gay couples and supports modifications to federal laws that discriminate against gay people; McCain does not.
"Grandma and the Kids" -- The AP and Bloggers
The biggest question I have about the Associated Press's new aggressiveness toward bloggers is: why now? Seems like the train left the station years ago. If the AP was serious about protecting it copyright, it would not have so easily licensed its content to websites galore, the obvious effect of which was to widely distribute the AP's content. The AP now seems to realize that they've (a) charged to little for their content, (b) made a huge mistake in not figuring out a way to centralize, brand and distribute AP content from an AP website, and (c) has to try and put the jack back in the box somehow.
Nevada Poll: McCain 42, Obama 44
A new Mason-Dixon poll for the Las Vegas Review Journal finds a dead heat in Nevada. Obama is strong with young voters, with women and with Hispanics. McCain has strength with every other demographic.
June 13, 2008
Comments Thread: Tim Russert
A forum for your Meet The Press memories, your observations on TR's contribution to journalism, your debates about his style, or whatever else you have on your mind.
Here is the NBC News Special Report, anchored by Tom Brokaw.
Laura and I are deeply saddened by the sudden passing of Tim Russert. Those of us who knew and worked with Tim, his many friends, and the millions of Americans who loyally followed his career on the air will all miss him.
As the longest-serving host of the longest-running program in the history of television, he was an institution in both news and politics for more than two decades. Tim was a tough and hardworking newsman. He was always well-informed and thorough in his interviews. And he was as gregarious off the set as he was prepared on it.
Most important, Tim was a proud son and father, and Laura and I offer our deepest sympathies to his wife Maureen, his son Luke, and the entire Russert family. We will keep them in our prayers.
John McCain:
"I am very saddened by Tim Russert's sudden death. Cindy and I extend our thoughts and prayers to the Russert family as they cope with this shocking loss and remember the life and legacy of a loving father, husband and the preeminent political journalist of his generation. He was truly a great American who loved his family, his friends, his Buffalo Bills, and everything about politics and America. He was just a terrific guy. I was proud to call him a friend, and in the coming days, we will pay tribute to a life whose contributions to us all will long endure."
Barack Obama:
We all I think have heard the news about Tim Russert. Ive known Tim Russert since I first spoke at the convention in 2004. He's somebody who overtime I came to consider not only a journalist but a friend. There wasnt a better interviewer in TV, not a more thoughtful analyst of our politics and he was also one of the finest men I knew. Somebody who cared about America, cared about the issues, cared about family. I am griefstricken with the loss and my thoughts and prayers go out to his family. And I hope that even though Tim is irreplaceable that the standard that he set in his professional life and his family life are standards that we all carry with us in our own lives."
Former vice president Al Gore:
The US and the world have a lost a great journalist, interviewer and author. He was an original and will be greatly missed
Tim Russert Is Dead
An unbelievable shock; this city will all but shut down over the next few days, so vital was he to its voice. I did not know him personally, but I know many people who did and they are devastated; passionate about politics and his integrity, he nurtured so many careers and is responsible for so many innovations in modern political journalism. He was, for everything that people may they know about about him, much more of a creature of Buffalo than a denizen of Washington. Above all, an unbelievable father to Luke and a loyal, devoted husband to Maureen Orth. A life marvelously well lived.
“I was greatly saddened to learn of Tim Russert’s untimely death. Tim was a warm and gracious family man with a great zest for life and an unsurpassed passion for his work. His rise from working-class roots to become a well-respected leader in political journalism is an inspiration to many. Tim asked the tough questions the right way and was the best in the business at keeping his interview subjects honest. My thoughts are with his family.”
Ambinder Veepstakes Lists, 6/13
The top five prospects, based on reporting, observation and mostly guesswork, in no particular order. And yes, these lists change from week to week. That's part of the fun.
BARACK OBAMA
1. Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) -- She and Jim Johnson had some quality time together at the Bilderberg meeting before Johnson was axed....
2. The Virginia boys: Kaine and Webb. Still in that order.
3. Ex-Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) The Consiglieri would be an ideal choice: he's trusted, knowledgeable, competent, white, and older.
4. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) -- she clearly wants to be considered; she'd be great in a debate with any of the Republicans McCain is considering.
5. Gen. James Jones -- the name leaked for a reason.
Names I'm not hearing about: Sen. Chris Dodd (and he has a new Countrywide crisis to handle) and Joe Biden. Not sure why.
JOHN MCCAIN
1. Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) -- still the odds-on favorite, and he's playing this exactly right.
2. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) -- rumors of a rapprochement are not just rumors.
3. Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) -- yes, he's back on the list. A senior McCain adviser is talking up in conversations with friends.
4. Gov. Bobby Jindall (R-LA) -- will his college exorcism chase the VP slot away? He's on my list, for now, because McCain wants a governor, but I think his selection is most improbable.
5. Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC)
McCain Doubles Down On Town Halls
John McCain's campaign sees an opportunity in Barack Obama's refusal to accept multiple joint town hall meetings before the party conventions. According to a McCain aide, the Obama campaign has proposed one joint meeting to be held on July 4. That won't work for the McCain folks, who don't believe that folks would be watching television that day. Today, McCain's team acceptd two more invitations: one from Nancy Reagan to be held at the Reagan library, and the other from the daugters of President Johnson to held at the LBJ library in Texas. The next McCain-proposed joint town hall -- actually, the first, because last night's meeting was full of McCain lackeys -- is scheduled for June 19 in Minnesota.
Rick Davis, in a letter to Obama manager David Plouffe, writes that "our negotiations over joint town hall meetings are turning into a debate about process. That is exactly what we have always hoped to avoid, and why we proposed a town hall format that would render many of these process issues moot. As Senator Obama has said, he is prepared to meet "anywhere, anytime" for a town hall."
What The 3,600 Are Actually Doing
Sometimes it's hard to keep all these programs and titles straight. So the Obama Fellows -- the 3,600 activists who'll work for the campaign over the next six weeks, will spend a lot of their time registering voters and a lot of their time participating in what the campaign calls its Unite for Change events. On June 28, the fellows will host several thousands UFC events in neighborhoods across the country, and yes, as I wrote that, I was thinking about Chuck Liddell too, but nevermind.
As described in an e-mail from deputy campaign manager Steve Hilderband:
"In all 50 states, supporters like you -- seasoned veterans and first-time volunteers alike -- will host house meetings with the express purpose of reaching out and bringing together folks who supported all of the Democratic candidates (and those who are just tuning into the process now)."
These house meetings form the core of the campaign's organizing model. The concept derives from organizing theory as taught by Saul Alinsky and as adopted by community organizers across the country. Never before has a major party presidential campaign used them to expand their support in a general election.
Plouffe Responds On Town Hall Meetings Proposals
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe:
“Barack Obama offered to meet John McCain at five joint appearances between now and Election Day—the three traditional debates plus a joint town hall on the economy in July and an in-depth debate on foreign policy in August. That package of five engagements would have been the most of any Presidential campaign in the modern era—offering a broad range of formats—and representing a historic commitment to openness and transparency.
“It’s disappointing that Senator McCain and his campaign decided to decline this proposal. Apparently they would rather contrive a political issue than foster a genuine discussion about the future of our country.
“Senator Obama believes that the American people deserve an open and accessible debate as they choose between real change and four more years of failed Bush policies, and he welcomed McCain’s invitation to offer voters ‘the rare opportunity of witnessing candidates for the highest office in the land discuss civilly and extensively the great issues at stake in the election."
Clearly, Obama did not want to committ to a series of pre-convention joint town halls. Too much time away from campaigning -- it's a big country and there are lots of places to go, too much prep time, too much schedule disruption. And, truth be told, McCain is better at these kinds of events than Obama is.
5 events would be, I believe, the most since 1960.
Obama Begins To Appoint State Directors
Barack Obama is making public the first of its campaign state director hires.
Mitch Stewart will be the Virginia State Director. He ran the coordinated campaign for the DFL in MN in '06 and was Sen. Tom Daschle's re-election field director in '04.
Buffy Wicks will be the Missouri State Director. She helped to put together the campaign's winning primary field teams and served as field director in California and deputy field director in Texas. Before that, she worked as an organizer for the UFCW union and cut her teeth on Howard Dean's presidential campaign.
Today is Ray Rivera's first day as Colorado State Director. He was Obama's CO state director for the Feb 5 caucuses and worked as a political director and organizer for AFSCME.
As Chris Cillizza notes, the team bears the imprint of Sen. Tom Daschle's extended universe. That's because Steve Hilderband, Obama's deputy campaign manager and field general -- he's the Tommy Franks in this metaphor -- ok, the Schwarzkopf? The Wes Clark? -- is one of Daschle's closest advisers.
Blind Item: Furmanology
WHICH swing-state Democratic Senator, on 6:00 pm ET US Airways Shuttle from DCA to LGA, was heard complaining about Barack Obama's choice of Jason Furman to be his chief economic adviser?
Ron Paul's Goal: 100,000 By September
Here's Ron Paul's inaugural description of his Campaign for Liberty:
The Hill is reporting that Sen. John McCain and Cindy McCain have more than $100,000 in credit card debt.
Next campaign stop: Suze Orman? ("Jaaahn. You. Can't. Afford. That.")
Closing The Books On Johnson
Opinions among Democrats differ as to whether the Obama campaign handled the Jim Johnson mess this week with care or folly. Some believe that the campaign acted swiftly to remove the problem. Others believe that Obama capitulated to public pressure and made himself look foolish.
There's more to the story than just a Countrywide loan: sources close to the campaign and to Johnson say that Obama was "irate" at the news reports of Johnson's and Eric Holder's meetings on Capitol Hill. Obama had expected all the meetings to be private, perhaps naively, but he was especially perturbed when reports surfaced about specific names that Johnson and Holder had brought up with some of the members of Congress.
A.B. Culvahouse has already consulted with top Republicans in the House and the Senate about McCain's picks. He's managed to do so without creating a ruckus.
In any event, Obama wasn't happy and his advisers weren't happy, and they made their feelings known to Johnson, and Johnson, sensing that he didn't really have Obama's trust and was becoming a distraction (because of the press accounts), he offered to resign. It was accepted quickly.
3,600 * 24 * 6
The Washington Post's Peter Slevin reports that the Obama campaign is dispatching 3,600 full-time volunteers to 17 states for six weeks of intensive, well, we don't really know, but I would suspect that voter registration will occupy a lot of their time.
Under the radar screen, the Obama campaign has been hosting thousands of house parties for undecided voters across the country; normally, campaigns use the model to organize caucuses or primaries, but Obama has taken it to the next level.
Ron Paul's campaign ends. And the R3VOLUTION begins.
Circulating In Republican Oppo Precincts...Obama On Iraq From 2004
Is this video of Sen. Barack Obama from 2004. The context isn't entirely clear, but it appears as if he wants to reassure the host that he has no intention to rapidly withdraw troops and certainly wouldn't set an artificial deadline.
I sent the clip to the Obama campaign and asked his national security senior adviser, Susan Rice, about it. "One year into the war is very different from five years into the war. Those who opposed the war thought it was a massive strategic blunder, but that doesn't mean we didn't want the U.S. to succeed," she said. "It was, in my personal estimation, and I imagine that Sen. Obama had this in his mind too, that it was way too soon [to conclude] that there was no way that a bad situation couldn't be ameliorated, at least partially."
At the time, Rice said, there was no way to know whether a political resolution could be tendered; by 2007, when Obama unveiled his plans for a post-war Iraq, it was clear to Obama that the U.S. strategy was overreaching and underperforming.
A point about consistency: Obama has acknowledged that his policy on Iraq withdrawal has evolved as the conditions on the ground have changed, and so this video doesn't strike me as a smoking gun; it just reminds me that Iraq is an extremely complex issue, and that "stay the course" versus "withdrawal" has never been a good way to think about it. And that Obama's position has not been entirely consistent -- although it's hard to value consistency about a messy, bloody, convoluted war and its equally messy, convoluted, messy aftermath. On this point, during the campaign, Sen. Clinton was not wrong when she pointed out Obama's different directions. (See my National Journal article on the subject from 2007.)
So I guess what I'm getting to... is that Obama hasn't been consistent... but that consistency is not the coin of this realm. The Obama campaign claims that Obama has made an evidenced-based assessment of what to do and will continue to do as president; as the facts on the ground change, he won't stubbornly stick to preconceptions about what to do.
What do you think? Will voters laud Obama for his dexterity? Or do they prefer resilience?
Obama And A Racial Premium
UnityWatch: Hillary Student Chair Endorses McCain
The co-chair of Iowa Students for Hillary is endorsing John McCain for reasons you can read about here. On the one hand, these stories are flies in the forest -- individual folks making their own choices. But the Clinton community is tight-knit. When folks go off the reservation, other folks follow. So far, the Clinton-to-McCain defectors are drops in a bucket; will they ever be anything else? It's eminently clear that Obama, while doing better at this point in the cycle that John Kerry did in 2004, cannot simply assume that undecided Clinton voters -- white working class men, older women, suburban women -- will not be influenced by these stories.
The Gap
Question twelve of the NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll asks whether voters want a Congress controlled by Republicans or by Democrats...
Republican-controlled Congress....... 33
Democrat-controlled Congress ......... 52
That's the largest gap since the budget shutdown in 1995. It's up four points from two months ago, and it's higher than the 15 point margin that Democrats held when they took back control of Congress in the 2006 midterm elections. It’s also by far the highest margin for either party in the 13 years of data available from previous polls. No guarantee that the number holds, but it's hard to imagine how it narrows that much.
The Table: On Veepstakes And Vetters
Back by popular demand....
McCain's Canada Trip: An Unintended Consequence?
Sen. John McCain's trip to Canada next week will be a small boon for the American, but it might embarass his would-be Canadian counterpart.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government still faces questions about who leaked a memo about Obama adviser Austan Goolsbee's NAFTA climb-downs to the Associated Press.
Given all that, next week's visit couldn't possibly come at a worse moment for the Harper government, which will likely be on the defensive before McCain's plane even touches down on Canadian ground. As for the speech itself, McCain won't have to worry about the turnout - the event sold out within minutes of being announced - but it's unlikely that many senior PMO or ministerial staffers will be in attendance, as their presence would set off a fresh flurry of speculation on cosiness between the Conservatives and the McCain campaign. Even though this is by no means an official visit, his mere presence in Ottawa will be seen, rightly or wrongly, as evidence that the PM is doing whatever he can to help out his Republican buddies.
All in all, the best thing that could happen right now, as far as the PM is concerned, would be for McCain to re-check his datebook, and discover that he has inadvertently double-booked, and has a prior engagement somewhere far from Ottawa that he simply can't miss.
DNC's Merger With Obama Campaign Continues
During general elections, the Democratic National Committee becomes the candidate's national committee, and since the Obama campaign is headquartered near Wacker and Michigan in Chicago, the DNC will pick up and move there.
The Politico's Ben Smith portrays it as a "a major shakeup" and "a departure from tradition," but it's more of a natural evolution. The DNC merged many of its operations with the Kerry campaign in 2004, but no one had to move -- both were located in Washington, D.C. And there's universal agreement, both among Kerry campaign veterans and DNC officials, that there still remained too many layers.
What IS different this cycle is that DNC staffers are being the opportunity to work with the Obama campaign more closely; they won't lose their jobs. Put another way, instead of muscling in and taking over DNC jobs, the Obama campaign is generously giving the DNC staffers a chance to do their jobs from Chicago.
When Paul Tewes, the Obama campaign's election manager now at the DNC, briefed members of the Association of State Democratic Party chairs on the conslidation, they responded positively, according to someone on the call.
Fight The Smears
The Obama campaign's launching a new rapid-response website designed to truthsquad all those (Larry Johnson-generated) Internet rumors about the Obama family. It's called FightThe Smears.com. The site represents a shift in tactics for Chicago. In the past, the campaign refused to talk about the "smears" because they didn't want to give them credibility. Now they've surrendered to the reality that silence often perpetuates the rumors. By consigning the smears to a website, the Obama campaign gives itself a nifty way to respond to these things. When asked, Obama can simply say, "Check the website" and move on.
Smears/truths addressed so far include the Michelle Obama/hatey whitey rumor, the Barack's a Muslim rumor, and the Barack-won't-say-the-pledge of allegiance rumor.
Meet The (Actual) Vetters
Eric Holder and Caroline Kennedy are heading the team of veepstakes vetters; they're putting all the pieces together and overseeing the process. But who does the actual vetting? Turns out that veepstakes vetting is kind of a specialty for a handful of prominent Washington lawyers who take time every four years to help out.
One is James Hamilton, a white collar criminal defense attorney at Bingham McCutchen in Washington. He was at the head of the team that vetted John Edwards in 2004; he helped Warren Christopher vet several vice presidential candidates in 2000. It's Hamilton and his associates who sit down with the prospective VP candidates and politely grill them; it's Hamilton who directs the candidates to send over health records, tax records, financial statements; it's Hamilton whose team pours over those records and prepares a detailed summary for the presidential nominee to peruse.
Is Hamilton playing a lead role this year? He did not respond to an e-mail seeking comment.
NJ Poll: Obama + 6
Quinnipiac's latest New Jersey survey (1476 votes with a margin of error of +/- 2.4%) gives Barack Obama a steady lead, 45% to 39%, on the strength of his support among women (46 to 35). Men are split between the two, as are independents.
WI Poll: Obama + 13
Two political scientists with top-notch reputations -- Charles Franklin of Pollster.com and Political Arithmetik fame, and Ken Goldstein, director of the Wisconsin Advertising Project -- have teamed together to conduct a series of polls for the Wispolitics.com empire, and their first effort has a surprising result: Barack Obama is up by double digits in the state. The two find that Democrats have a substantial voter identification edge in the state -- 12 points. In 2004, party attachment measures were equal. The two surveyed 506 probable Wisconsin voters; the margin of error is +/- 4.5%.
June 11, 2008
Johnson's Departure And Obama's Campaign
Chris Cillizza asks whether the departure of Jim Johnson signals a weak Obama campaign. Perhaps, but not for the reason Chris says.
The RNC's immediate reaction to Johnson's stepping away was a press release asking when Obama would ask Eric Holder to step down. Where does the war of attritition end? And why did the Obama campaign, if they were standing on principle, decide to back down in the face of criticism? If Obama's choice of Johnson was a mistake in the first place, then that's one thing. But if the campaign doesn't believe they made an error -- and they don't -- why give the Republicans a trophy head?
Bye, Jim
Johnson's Statement On Withdrawing
Jim Johnson passes along a statement:
I believe Barack Obama’s candidacy for President of the United States is the most exciting and important of my lifetime. I would not dream of being a party to distracting attention from that historic effort. Therefore, I have withdrawn from the VP selection process.
I am extremely proud of my service to Fannie Mae and in other important dimensions of public service. This withdrawal should in no way imply that I accept the blatantly false statements and misrepresentations that have been written about me in recent days
Johnson's Out: First Thoughts
In many respects, the times and the man just didn't jibe. Johnson is extremely well-liked and well-respected, and is a Washington insider, and a man very much identified with mortgages. And Obama is an outside-Washington change guy. The veep choice is extremely important.
Something changed; yesterday, this was a "game" and irrelevant; today, it was important enough to accept Johnson's resignation. Was he pushed? Did he resign voluntarily?
Will the team of lawyers that Johnson uses to vet the candidates -- the usual suspects who've done this for cycle after cycle -- stay on board? If not, what's the cost of finding a new team of trusted folks?
Republicans have their head. Payback time for all those folks who were forced to leave their positions on the McCain campaign. This war of attrition saddens folks in both camps.
Jim Johnson Out As Chief Vetter
Barack Obama just released a statement:
“Jim did not want to distract in any way from the very important task of gathering information about my vice presidential nominee, so he has made a decision to step aside that I accept. We have a very good selection process underway, and I am confident that it will produce a number of highly qualified candidates for me to choose from in the weeks ahead. I remain grateful to Jim for his service and his efforts in this process."
Namedropping: Gephardt, Mitchell
Here are two names that Washington-based advisers of Barack Obama are circulating among their friends and allies:
Ex-Rep. Dick Gephardt and Ex-Sen. George Mitchell.
Starting with the personal: Gephardt endorsed Clinton but did nothing during the campaign to alienate Obama. Obama has met Gephardt and likes him but does not really know him. Given that Missouri is a certifiable battleground, Gephardt would be an asset; He's a midwesterner; he's close to labor, the white working class, and all that jazz. But he's a lobbyist now, and a registered foreign agent to boot.
Mitchell, an architect of peace in Northern Ireland and the head of a committee investigating steroids in baseball, almost made it to the Supreme Court under Bill Clinton. He's supremely well-qualified and well-resepcted, but so far as I can tell, Obama does not know him, and Obama's not going to choose someone he doesn't really know. Mitchell, now the chair of DLA Piper Rudnick, had prostate cancer in 2007.
Analysis: The question is: On which issues do Bloomberg and McCain agree? Not that many...
Item: Camille Paglia thinks Kathleen Sebelius would be an ideal VP choice because she "is a polished public presence who epitomizes that cordial, smoothly reassuring, and blandly generic WASPiness that has persistently defined the American power structure in business and government and that has weirdly resisted wave after wave of immigration since the mid-19th century."
Analysis: Can you imagine Paglia as a vetter? "Did you ever read Michel Foucault?"
Item: The New Republic's Michael Crowley makes the resume case for former Sen. Sam Nunn (D-GA).
Analysis: A compelling case. But what's missing from this profile is what's missing from every veepstakes profile: evidence of whether Obama likes Nunn, trusts Nunn, knows Nunn, and could work well with him for eight years.
Vetting The Vetter
Supporting Obama: A Different View
Tamila Gresham, a Clinton delegate from Missouri, writes in to dispute the notion that Sen. Clinton urged her supporters to vote for Obama at the convention:
I am an alternate pledged delegates for Senator Clinton from Missouri. I can say unequivocally that she did NOT ask us in any way to vote for Senator Obama at the Convention. She in no way released us. She asked us to "support" him, but not ever with our votes at the Convention. It seemed clear from the conversation and from the answers given by Harold Ickes that she was not releasing her delegates, but that ALL delegates (even Senator Obama's) are not "bound" and are allowed to vote for anyone they want at the Convention.
In addition, it was made known that she would appreciate it if we could stay together as a group in order to support her fight for Universal Health Care with the Platform Committee.
It's Not Important? Context Is Always Important
Democrats and allies are jumping on John McCain for telling NBC's Matt Lauer that "it's not important" when troops return from Iraq. Period. There's no because. There's almost never a because when one side seizes on the comments of another. The context makes it clear that McCain is reiterating his position that the presence of troops isn't the issue; instead, it's the casualties they receive. The differences between McCain and Obama are clear enough; Obama wants a bare-bones U.S. presence in Iraq, and McCain is willing to tolerate a much larger one; Obama believes that the presence of U.S. troops exacerbates the tension and gives Iraqis a crutch to delay political reconcilliation. McCain does not. One would think that those differences are a sufficient basis upon which to launch a political attack. Instead, though, in a conference call with reporters, in remarks by Democrats like Joe Biden, in a blistering statement by Rep. Rahm Emanuel, McCain is being portrayed as, inter alia, not caring one whit about casualties and deaths and chaos and certainly not about the families of troops who dealt with deployment after deployment. That's my reading, anyway. See for yourself:
By the way: The Bilderberg folks actually put out a press release this year announcing their meeting.
Also on the Bilderberg guest list this year: Gov. Kathleen Sebelius....
Two Is Not A Trend
It's true that Barack Obama's support among Democrats is, on average, about seven points less than John McCain's. That's a valid GOP talking point, although we'll see if the trend holds through the convention. But the RNC and the McCain campaign are trying to create momentum behind the idea that there's a mass exodus of Dems. Well, there ain't.
And where the RNC can point to a superdelegate here and a congressman there, so can Democrats.
(1) Chuck Hagel (R-NE) pointedly refuses to say who he'd vote for.
(2) Same with Colin Powell.
(3) Christine DeLay will vote for Bob Barr.
(4) Ron Paul ... and his people.
In 2000, it took Gary Bauer a while before he endorsed President Bush. In 2004, Sen. Linc Chafee would not say whom he voted for. Not that John Kerry was so lucky: a Nexis search finds that the follow lawmakers:
Rodney Alexander (D-La.), Allen Boyd (D-Fla.), Jim Marshall (D-Ga.), Jim Matheson (D-Utah) and Dennis Moore (D-Kan)....
said they would not endorse Kerry, according to The Hill newspaper.
June 10, 2008
Strickland's News Not New
Gov. Ted Strickland's strict and unequivocal statement about his lack of interest in being vice president or accepting a nomination was news to most of the media, and to me. But not to Ohioans. It seems that Strickland has said the exact same thing for a year. Didn't matter whether Hillary Clinton was the presumptive nominee. Here's Strickland in November of 2007.
An aide to Strickland e-mails: "Governor Strickland has said, consistently and unequivocally for several months now, that he has had no interest in appearing on the national ticket and that he would turn down any offers (while trying not to sound presumptuous, of course!)."
So it's not quite right to interpret Strickland's comments as a reproach to Barack Obama.
Does The RNC Want This Debate?
Just asking: does the RNC really want to get into a debate over the number of partisans in each party who don't fully support their party's nominee?
See the e-mail to which I'm referring after the jump.
Ed: the following post will test whether re-enabling comments was a good idea...)
Jonathan Martin picks up the news that Sen. John McCain is headed overseas again, this time to Colombia, in early July.
Independent, non-aligned, weakly partisan voters -- and Democrats and Republicans -- all agree the next president must restore America's standing in the world.
Some Obama supporters believe that the mere election of their candidate will serve as a collective American apology for the sins of the Bush Administration and that the world will greet Obama's presidency as if he were a liberator. Maybe. Even ... probably.
But it's John McCain who's doing the actual work right now. He goes to Europe; runs op-eds in the FT and Le Monde and has productive discussions with everyone from Sarkozy to Gordon Brown to David Cameron (i.e., re-establishing good relationships with our allies)— and now, with a stalled Colombian trade agreement, he’s going to Colombia and doing the same.
When the news here in the states focuses on Obama and foreign leaders, it can be about the universal acclamation he gets from Kenyans -- and there's something to that. But more often that not, it's about the way he'll relate to the bad folks. Or it's Obama getting completely ripped for his stance on free trade by everyone from Stephen Harper to David Milliband to Peter Mandelson to the Colobumian government.
Now, I really do not doubt that if and when a pre-presidential Obama begins to tour the world, the response will be rapturous and the crowds will prove too immense for even the Secret Service's meticulous planning. Last week's international newspaper headlines prove that Obama's candidacy is sparking immense and hopeful curiosity across the world. But the fact is that right now, McCain's the diplomat. At the very least, give him this: if he is, as commander in chief, going to stay the course in Iraq, he's going to need more allies than the US currently has.
When McCain goes before voters in the fall, he'll be able to list the countries he visited as a candidate and the relationships he's begun to build. Work, stuff, doing, action. What Obama will say is TBD.
The Short Lists
I trust Chuck Todd's sources better than my own, but I'm hearing that the list of names he's floating is a bit narrow... and that Johnson and Holder discussed a variety of different names.. at least three former military officers, one of which was, as Chuck as, Ret. Gen. Jim Jones.... Also, several of the names on Todd's list were brought up by the Democrats who were asked, not necessarily by Johnson and Holder. One Hill source who has been reliable in the past says that his/her boss was specifically asked about Sen. James Webb. In general, I shouldn't, and you shouldn't, read too much into this early Galivanting-Sans-Caroline Kennedy. If history is any guide, most of the names floated are courtesies, and a large number of short-listers don't show up in the first round.
The Daily Satire
Check out Harry Shearer's Le Show, June 8th edition, about 42 minutes in.
“If drafted I will not run, nominated I will not accept and if elected I will not serve. So, I don’t know how more crystal clear I can be.”
Does Strickland realize that he really did have a shot?
Over/Under
More On The Johnson/Holder Show Today
Item: Kent Conrad (D-ND) spills the beans, says that Eric Holder and Jim Johnson asked him about 20 names, including several retired military officials.
Analysis: This is an example of the quasi-private nature of the process. The campaign pretends that it’s entirely discreet, but they know that certain things will get out, and in some ways, they welcome the trial balloon effect … and the discussion about whether an Obama/Clark or Obama/Jones ticket would be feasible and worthy.
Informed Guesswork: Ret. Gen. James Jones of the Marine Corps and Ret. Gen. Wes Clark of the Army are probably the names on the list.
Obama Campaign Sneaky In Michigan
Maybe I'll call posts like these "Hildebrand's Hordes, after the Obama campaign's dynamic deputy campaign manager, Steve Hilderband, who is putting together the campaign's registration, persuasion and field operation for the general election. Actually, Hordes sounds hinky. How about Hildebrand's Hellions?
She's from Maryland. He's from New York. For the moment, they are the Obama for President campaign in Lansing.
Laura and Greg, who can't reveal their last names because it is against national campaign policy to do so, are running a voter registration project along with 14 other Obama field offices around the state.
Laura explained that she could "not go on the record with the media" and if she did, she "would get into trouble." She did reveal however that she's been given temporary housing in Williamston and was greeted with a severe thunderstorm over the weekend that knocked out her power and water.
Welcome to Michigan.
Their downtown Lansing office, according to Greg on background, is not the official Obama headquarters and is not exactly a palace. It's about 15 feet by 35 feet and consists of a few chairs, a desk, a refrigerator and a copy machine. They are using Laura's cell phone number for the office phone in what appears to be somewhat of a shoestring operation with no budget so far.
There will not be a grand opening for this temporary office, but Greg thinks there may be one when the official headquarters is found.
"Do you know any places?" Laura with no last name asked.
