Quinnipiac's latest New Jersey survey (1476 votes with a margin of error of +/- 2.4%) gives Barack Obama a steady lead, 45% to 39%, on the strength of his support among women (46 to 35). Men are split between the two, as are independents.
« WI Poll: Obama + 13 | Main | Meet The (Actual) Vetters » NJ Poll: Obama + 612 Jun 2008 09:39 am Comments (9)
NJ resident here... No way NJ goes red, no way. Same for PA, the thought of these states turning red after the last eight years actually makes me laugh. 
Democratic candidates in New Jersey tend not to put up impressive poll numbers, but they usually end up winning by comfortable margins.
At this point I think New Jersey is safe for Obama. If he's leading in Pennsylvania he should be leading comfortably in NJ.
Another NJ resident here. Folks in this state hate all politicians but they hate Republicans more. Remember when there was talk of Corzine losing to Forrester or Menendez losing to Kean Jr? The polls seemed to show that the GOP candidates in both races did indeed have a shot...some of the pre-election polls were virtual ties. Both Corzine and Menendez won comfortably...I believe they each won by 10% over their respective opponents. A 6 pt lead over McCain at this point pretty much means that Obama will win the state easily. And I wouldn't worry about any polls - like the latest Rasmussen - showing Lautenberg in a tight race. No way NJ goes red. Not a chance, especially not this year.
I agree with the above. NJ and Pa are safely blue. I hope the GOP wastes a lot of time and money in these two states. Iowa poll came out and has Obama +7.
"Big Brown" is the overwhelming favorite going into the race. Undefeated to this point in his career. Put your money down folks, you'll never find a surer bet!
Two weeks before each general election, pundits always say that New Jersey and Tennessee are in play. And then NJ ends up blue and TN red, by double digits.
Things are looking good for Obama right now. But I think because of race we have to give at least 2/3 of the white undecideds to McCain. Often, people will answer undecided or don't know if race is a factor, not say they won't vote for someone. So Obama needs to clear 50% in most polls to feel comfortable with those states. If I were him, I'd be nervous about New Jersey. Whites there aren't all that tolerant and it wouldn't surprise me if McCain competes strongly there.
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Well, that sucks. By the fall, I expect NJ to be solid blue.
Posted by goethean | June 12, 2008 11:18 AM