The Gap

Question twelve of the NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll asks whether voters want a Congress controlled by Republicans or by Democrats...

Republican-controlled Congress....... 33
Democrat-controlled Congress ......... 52

That's the largest gap since the budget shutdown in 1995. It's up four points from two months ago, and it's higher than the 15 point margin that Democrats held when they took back control of Congress in the 2006 midterm elections. It’s also by far the highest margin for either party in the 13 years of data available from previous polls. No guarantee that the number holds, but it's hard to imagine how it narrows that much.

Comments

1932.

Posted by Leo | June 12, 2008 3:09 PM

Dear Marc,

In the first draft of this post (since edited) which was sent to my RSS feed, you said:

"That's the largest gap since the budget shutdown in 1995. That number is up four points from two months ago, and is higher than the 15 point margin that Democrats held when we took back control of Congress in the 2006 midterm elections."

Either Google f'ed up or you just showed your true stripes.

Posted by Matt | June 12, 2008 3:17 PM

Hmmm. The Republicans really aren't so popular, it appears.

I wouldn't compare this to 1932 -- I think that's a bit cocky -- but if I were G.W. Bush or Karl Rove, I wouldn't be feeling too proud of myself right about now.

Posted by dem. | June 12, 2008 3:19 PM

Apropos of the Table...and I am genuinely asking...why did Johnson get so much attention, such that e left, and Sen. Graham's conflicts did not. Is this a function of more skillful pushing of an issue? Obama's quick hook?

Posted by DH | June 12, 2008 3:38 PM

This is bad news for Democrats. Those numbers will take a huge hit after VetterGate.

Posted by TomT | June 12, 2008 4:21 PM

Matt,

Is there any question that a writer for a website that is not openly right-leaning and claims to be "independant" is really left-leaning?

That's pretty much commonly understood.

Posted by sam | June 12, 2008 4:33 PM

Is there any question that an independent writer not openly right wing defending a poll that's favorable to the left, not right, is right about the centrists being independent about right wing independents on a centrist blog that's openly not left-leaning?
That's pretty much commonly understood.

Posted by Jack H. | June 12, 2008 4:48 PM

This might be the election ('1932' indeed) that will help answer a question raised during the Repub 'redistricting' of many states after the 2000 census. I'm thinking of TomDeLay etc; wonderful theater back then with the Texas legistators on the lam in Oklahoma and DeLay calling the FAA Chief to demand their aircraft be tracked so he could arrest and hogtie the wayware lawmakers.

Back then someone wondered what would be the reaction if a vast popular wave swept the country and COULD NOT change the core of Congress, esp the House? Could PoliSci and Constitutional Law types find a point at which the majority had protected themselves by gerrymandering until the Constitutional democracy-in-a-republic was simply gone? And what would we do?

This might be it.

Posted by JohnMcC | June 12, 2008 5:27 PM

JohnMcC,

That's a really interesting point about redistricting. But it has its flip side, I think. The GOP technique was to create a lot of districts with a modest GOP majority, and a smaller number of heavily Democratic districts. But if the political tide turns, a 52-48 Republican seat could go Dem. If there are lots of 52-48 Republican seats, we could see a bigger shift than otherwise.

Posted by Hal | June 12, 2008 6:42 PM

To JohnMcC, interesting point but you assume Democrats haven't done the same thing. As naked of a power grab that the Delay redistricting was, it basically redrew the lines in a way to make up for previous Democratic gerrymanders. In the 1990s for instance, Democrats won a majority of U.S. House seats (17 D-13 R or something like that) yet voters gave Republicans 55% of the vote statewide for House candidates. The GOP gerrymandering in states was sometimes correcting earlier Dem. gerrymanders.

Posted by John | June 12, 2008 7:27 PM