The Daily Bric-A-Brac: Only One

Inflating The Tires, Conserving A Talking Point

A Question About Race

A Humble Question

Sparring Over McCain Ads

Bluffing 'Bout Bias?

"Barack Obama has played the race card, and he played it from the bottom of the deck. It's divisive, negative, shameful and wrong."

So nobody really thinks that Bush or McCain have a real answer for the challenges we face, so what they're going to try to do is make you scared of me. You know, he's not patriotic enough. He's got a funny name. You know, he doesn't look like all those other Presidents on those dollar bills, you know. He's risky. That's essentially the argument they're making

Continue reading "Bluffing 'Bout Bias?" »

Obama Raises Money Off "Nasty Turn"

Marc --

As we face the fundraising deadline at midnight tonight, I want you to know what we are up against.

Less than 24 hours ago, the McCain campaign launched the latest and lowest in a series of misleading attack ads.

This Karl Rove-style ploy misleads people about Barack's energy plan and even mocks his ability to inspire voters and bring Americans back into the political process.

Watchdogs in the media are calling McCain's accusations "bogus," "desperate," "wrong," "misleading," "ugly," "offensive," "reckless," and "a nasty turn into the gutter."

Some of McCain's own supporters agree. One senior Republican strategist quoted by the Washington Post called the latest ad a "wild swing at Obama" that reflects his campaign's "increasing bitterness" and the lack of "any coherent strategy to elect McCain."

Even John Weaver, a strategist who worked for McCain's presidential campaign in 2000 and on his current campaign last year, called the ad "childish," adding that this negative strategy "diminishes John McCain" and "needs to stop."

But we will not let any attack stand. Barack himself responded quickly and forcefully, and within hours our campaign created a response ad to take their smear tactics head-on.

Make a donation of $5 or more now to get our response on the air and show the McCain campaign that there is a cost to this kind of negative politics.

America

With the election less than 100 days away, media pundits and Washington insiders will be watching our fundraising numbers more closely than ever.

In the face of these new attacks, you can help demonstrate that a movement funded by grassroots supporters giving only what they can afford is ready to take on the Republican fundraising machine and its onslaught of negativity.

Your support will also give this campaign a crucial boost in momentum as we build our organization to compete in all 50 states.

There are only hours left to make an impact in July.

Watch the new ad and make a donation of $5 or more before the midnight deadline.

Thanks,

David

David Plouffe
Campaign Manager

Obama Taunts McCain: "Is That The Best You Can Come Up With?"

Christopher Beam Presents: This Was Inevitable

McCain Adjusts Language On Social Security And Taxes

"I am opposed to raising taxes. Senator Obama wants to raise your taxes. He wants to raise your taxes and if any negotiation I might have when I go in my position will be that I am opposed to raising taxes, but we have to work together to save Social Security."

McCain and Obama Within The Margin Of Arrogance

37% think Obama is arrogant (34% think McCain is arrogant.); 63% do not think Obama is arrogant. 44% think he's acting as if he's already won the election; 56% don't. 72% think Obama cares about military veterans. 65% think Obama's overseas trip was "appropriate."

The poll also found that Barack Obama has an advantage on issue of taxes, broadly defined.

Quinnipiac Numbers...

Energy In McCain's Move?

Hit Me, Davis, One More Time

Has anybody asked the McCain campaign if they considered Michael Deaver's golden rule of image management -- that the visual images count so much more than the voiceovers?  Deaver famously thanked a network news correspondent (Leslie Stahl, I think) for a hit piece on Reagan, telling her to watch it with the sound off -- which showed a bunch of flattering presidential images with flag-waving supporters. 

 

The McCain ad seems to violate that idea -- the images of Obama smiling and being cheered on by hundreds of thousands of American-flag-waving Europeans are downright inspiring, no matter which side you're on.  Hell, I can't stand Obama at this point and I find those images uplifting.  Yet McCain uses them in his own ad.  Has
anybody asked them about the wisdom of that?

The Daily Bric-A-Brac: Outrages And Nice Things

Obama Follows The McCaskill Model, With Tweaks

SPRINGFIELD, MO -- "They say that he's arrogant," Sen. Claire McCaskill said of Barack Obama. "That he's unpatrioptic. "  Well --  "Blah, blah, blah." 

Today,  McCaskill's pitch to this sea of white faces was cultural. "I know this man," she said of Obama. "He is humble. He is devoutly Christian. He loves his family more than anything else in the world. He reveres our men and women in uniform and he is as red white and blue as you can possible get."

 Obama is spending the day rolling through central and south Missouri, visiting cities and towns where Democrats don't usually go.  Rolla, where Obama traveled later in the day, had not seen a Democrat forever.  This part of the state is culturally closer to the South than to the Midwest.  

McCaskill's 2006 victory over incumbent  Sen. Jim Talent is a puzzle of sorts.  Riding on the tide of Democratic enthusiasm, she overperformed in the state's urban centers  and capitalized on Republican disaffection  in other parts of the state.  When she ran for governor in 2004, she lost, managing to win only nine rural counties. (John Kerry won one.)  Running for Senate two years later, she ran a model populist campaign and focused heavily on rural precincts she had earlier ignored.   She was tough on national security - no "cutting and running," pro-gun, and with the exception of her support for embryonic stem cell research , steered clear of the cultural landmines that tend to trip up Democrats.

Continue reading "Obama Follows The McCaskill Model, With Tweaks" »

RNC's Pushback Against Obama Speech

Continue reading "RNC's Pushback Against Obama Speech" »

Weaver, McCain's Former Strategist, Calls "Celeb" Ad "Childish"

John Weaver,  for years one of John McCain's closest friends and confidants, has been in exile since his resignation from McCain's presidential campaign last year.    With the exception of an occasional interview, he has, by his own account, bit his tongue as McCain's campaign has adopted a strategy that Weaver believes "diminishes John McCain."

With the release today of a McCain television ad blasting Obama for celebrity preening while gas prices rise, and a memo that accuses Obama of putting his own aggrandizement before the country, Weaver said he's had "enough."

The ad's premise, he said, is "childish."

"John's been a celebrity ever since he was shot down," Weaver said. "Whatever that means.  And I recall Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush going overseas and all those waving American flags."

Weaver remains in contact with senior McCain strategists and, for a while early this year, regularly talked to McCain.

The strategy of driving up Obama's negatives "reduces McCain on the stage," Weaver said.

"For McCain to win in such troubled times, he needs to begin telling the American people how he intends to lead us. That McCain exists. He can inspire the country to greatness."

He added: "There is legitimate mockery of a political campaign now, and it isn't at Obama's. For McCain's sake, this tomfoolery needs to stop."

On a conference call with reporters, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis said the ad "addresses a unique facet in Barack Obama's campaign that is unlikenbsp; any other campaign we've seen in modern history: a campaign that is focused on the development of an enormous image of celebrity status."  Davis and Weaver do not get along, and the campaign's  operations chief, Steve Schmidt,was reportedly upset that Weaver told the New  York Times that  the campaign  "lost" the week that Obama went overseas.

Obama, speaking to reporters outside a diner in Lebanon, MO, at first did not answer a question about the ad. Then he said,.

"You know, I don't pay attention to John McCain's ads, although I do notice he doesn't seem to have anything to say very positive about himself. He seems to only be talking about me. You need to ask John McCain what he's for and not just what he's against," he said.

McCain Campaign Mocks Obama's Celebrity, Again

To:       Interested Parties

From:   Rick Davis, McCain Campaign Manager

Date:    July 30, 2008

Re:       Barack Obama's Celebrity

 

Barack Obama is the biggest celebrity in the world, comparable to Tom Cruise, Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. As he told Congressional Democrats yesterday, he has become the "symbol" for the world's aspirations for America and that we are now at "the moment ... that the world is waiting for."

 

Only a celebrity of Barack Obama's magnitude could attract 200,000 fans in Berlin who gathered for the mere opportunity to be in his presence. These are not supporters or even voters, but fans fawning over The One. Only celebrities like Barack Obama go to the gym three times a day, demand "MET-RX chocolate roasted-peanut protein bars and bottles of a hard-to-find organic brew -- Black Forest Berry Honest Tea" and worry about the price of arugula

Yet, despite all of the fans, paparazzi and media adoration, the American people still have questions: Is Barack Obama prepared to lead? Is being famous the same as being a credible commander in chief?

Like most worldwide celebrities, this status has fueled a certain arrogance. As The Washington Post reported this morning, Barack Obama has gone from his party's presumptive nominee to "its presumptuous nominee." His advisers are constantly reminded that their candidate is not actually the President of the United States, despite the "presidential" seal. On his plane, his chair reads "President." 

Barack Obama's presumptuous arrogance is staggering considering that as a United States Senator he has almost no re

cord of accomplishment. As Richard Cohen wrote yesterday in The Washington Post:

"'Just tell me one thing Barack Obama has done that you admire,' I asked a prominent Democrat. He paused and then said that he admired Obama's speech to the Democratic convention in 2004. I agreed. It was a hell of a speech, but it was just a speech. On the other hand, I continued, I could cite four or five actions -- not speeches -- that John McCain has taken that elicit my admiration, even my awe."

On issues big and small, there is a gap between Barack Obama's soaring rhetoric and celebrity and the facts behind them.  What he says and what he does are often two very different things, leaving the American people to wonder what he actually believes, or if he believes in anything beyond himself. He says he will change Washington, but in the U.S. Senate, he has requested nearly $1 billion in pork-barrel spending. He says he will only raise taxes on the rich, but he voted to raise the taxes of those making just $32,000 per year. He says he wants energy independence, but he opposes new drilling at home; opposes nuclear power; and opposes encouraging the invention of an advanced, affordable electric car. On Iraq, he says he wants peace, but even today opposes the surge strategy that has succeeded and will succeed in Afghanistan. Our nation doesn't need another politician in Washington who puts his self-interest and political expediency ahead of problem-solving.

As the world's biggest celebrity, Barack Obama has the entourage and all the trappings of fame. Today, his campaign is more about advancing Barack Obama and less about solving the challenges facing our country.

"Quick Draw" Obama Challenges McCain To "Duel" (Updated with McCain response)

 "Wild Bill Hickock," Obama said.

"I was reading on the way over here that he had his first duel in the town square here in Springfield.."

"Now, I don't know if people are aware of the fact... and I have not done ... the research...  Family legend is that Wild Bill Hickock is a distant cousin of mine."

"I'm serious. I'm serious. I don't know if it's true..."

"We're gonna research that. Because I'm ready to duel John McCain on taxes."

He pantomimed a quick draw.

"A quick draw...." he said.

"If Barack Obama wants this so-called 'duel' than why did he and his entourage run for the hills when John McCain challenged him to ten town halls?  The truth is Barack Obama's bad judgment led him to vote in support of higher taxes 94 times in just three years in the Senate, and he can't hide from that."

RNC Accidentally Mocks Messianic Lutherans (Updated)

Being a member of a Missouri Synod Lutheran congregation, I was surprised to find out we were in fellowship with a group I'd never heard of -- Messianic Lutherans. So I went to that link that Ambinder provides for Messianic Lutherans and realized he'd done a Google link to congregations named Messiah Lutheran Church. One of my good friends is a pastor of a Messiah Lutheran Church <http://www.messiahkenosha.org/>  in Wisconsin. Naming your church Messiah Lutheran, or Immanuel Lutheran <http://www.immanuelalexandria.org/> , or St. John's Lutheran <http://www.stjohnsmg.org/> , or Martini Lutheran <http://martinilutheran.org/>  doesn't make you part of a denomination called Messianic Lutherans, Immanuelite Lutherans, Juanite Lutherans or Martini Lutherans! It just means you've named your congregation. All of these congregations are Missouri Synod Lutheran congregations. Just like every other Christian church in the world, they have their own name.  Oy vey! So just to recap, there is no "real denomination" of Messianic Lutherans associated with the Missouri Synod. It doesn't have branches in California and Nebraska. Most of them aren't in Missouri. And we tend to self-identify as confessional Lutherans rather than as evangelical Christians.)

Obama Finetunes Economic Message

"We may be the first generation to pass on an America that is a little poorer than the one we inherited from our parents and grandparents." (Barack Obama at a fundraiser last night)

"We're going to have to work our way out of the pickle we've been put in."

The people I've met during this campaign in town halls and living rooms; on farms and front porches - they know that government can't solve all their problems, and they don't expect it to. They're willing to do their part - to work harder and study more and replace the remote controls and video games with books and homework. They believe in personal responsibility and self-reliance. They don't like seeing their tax dollars wasted.

If Senator McCain wants a debate about taxes in this campaign, that's a debate I'm happy to have. Because while we're both proposing tax cuts, the difference is who we're cutting taxes for. Senator McCain would cut taxes for those making over $3 million. I'll cut taxes for middle class families by three times as much as my opponent. Let me be clear: if you're a family making less than $250,000, my plan will not raise your taxes - not your income taxes, not your payroll taxes, not your capital gains taxes, not any of your taxes. And unlike my opponent, I'll pay for my plan - by cutting wasteful spending, shutting corporate loopholes and tax havens, and rolling back the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.

New McCain Ad Taunts Obama's "Celeb" Status

Messiah W...ell, Actually...

"I have become a symbol of the possibility of America returning to our best traditions," he said.

It's The EconomyThis Week, Not Pakistan

Unfounded Rumormongering Department

The Daily Bric-A-Brac: Provocations

Obama's biggest advantage today is not his historic candidacy or his ability to give a speech or this efficient campaign organization, but the fact he has a D on his back. My guess is any other Democrat running this year would have at least a five point lead if not larger.

Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, on January 10 2007 predicted (watch HERE) that the surge of troops in Iraq would fail

Pakistan's government yesterday abruptly reversed an order issued on Saturday placing the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence agency under the control of the -interior ministry.

Control of the ISI reverted back to the prime minister's office - an arrangement that has existed for years.

It's The Aseity

HUCKABEE: Well, I think he missed an opportunity. Instead of having some fun with it and showing sort of a buoyant 'hey, do what you've got to do, let Obama go play basketball, I'm solving problems.' Do it with tongue and cheek.

Frankly, I thought he looked more like Bob Dole in the last days of the 1996 campaign saying 'look at the record, look at the record,' and there was some anger and sense of frustration there.

Gotta Love Contrarians

Stevens' Indictment

What They Admire About Obama

(1) I admire his beating Hillary Clinton!!  Seriously.  He is quite probably the only person in the country who could have saved us from our unpleasant dynastic tendencies. 

(2) I admire what I understand to be his successful, consensus-building tenure on the Harvard Law Review.  As an ex-law review executive I can tell you this is not the easiest thing in the world to accomplish.

(3) I admire that he had the poise and self-confidence to turn down a clerkship with Abner Mikva and the near-certainty of a Supreme Court clerkship.  The world of elite law schools is so circumscribed and echo-chamber-y that it takes a genuine sense of self to reject that which everyone around you regards as the most desirable achievement possible.  (I am ashamed of how my own personal value system got so bent out of shape during law school -- in three years I went from being unable to name a single federal appellate judge to feeling like a complete failure upon not being hired by one, at least on my first go-round.) 

(4) I admire that he had the courage to write frankly (and lyrically) about his sense of personal racial dislocation and his youthful drug use.  To me, GWB is at his most personally compelling when he talks about his struggle with addiction; imagine if he had had the courage and humility to own up to the complete truth?

      5.       Voting for CAFTA against the trial lawyers association

AFL-CIO On Obama Rumor Patrol

Just Asking...

The Richard Cohen Test

"Just tell me one thing Barack Obama has done that you admire," I asked a prominent Democrat. He paused and then said that he admired Obama's speech to the Democratic convention in 2004.

Weird Correction Of The Day

In her column last Wednesday, Maureen Dowd wrote that a Democratic lawmaker privately asked Gen. David Petraeus why there weren't more Democrats in the military, and he replied, "There are more than you think." Col. Steven Boylan of the general's public affairs office in Baghdad, which was not contacted for comment, says the quotation "is in error as he never made nor would make such a statement."

Discussion: An Elite Backlash Against McCain's Tone?

LARRY KING: We're back with Senator John McCain. We have an e-mail question from Scott in Chappaqua, New York. We haven't heard that city mentioned in a while. I have noticed particularly in the past few days that you've increased your use of negative ads and personal statements about Senator Obama. Whatever happened to your assurances you would not engage in such negativity. What about your calls for a civil and respectful campaign?

MCCAIN: Well, first of all, I admire and respect Senator Obama. He has done a great job securing the nomination to his party. He also used his opposition to the war in Iraq as a way to secure that. Look, there are just start differences between us and those differences need to be drawn, whether it be health care or he wants government to basically run the health care program. Whether it's taxes where he wants to raise taxes whereas I want to keep them low. ...

Not A Good Day For Romney Clips

The Bay State has long served up coverage-specific insurance mandates, such as for fertility treatments, which raise costs. Yet in a just-deserts twist, Massachusetts health planners are now reviewing ways to trim mandates because the state is footing more of the bill, even if they didn't care when imposing them on individuals and small business. A state-sponsored study shows that total spending on mandates was $1.32 billion in 2005, or 12% of premiums. The study is devastating despite its pro-mandate slant.

Not that such practical lessons have stopped liberals from joining the Massachusetts parade. They have to gussy up the state's model because the extravagant claim that led to its creation -- that health care will be less expensive if everyone is covered -- is being relentlessly discredited. It's the same claim they want to make when they try to pass a similar plan for the whole country in next year's Congress.

Prominent evangelical leaders are warning Sen. John McCain against picking former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as his running mate, saying their troops will abandon the Republican ticket on Election Day if that happens.

They say Mr. Romney lacks trust on issues such as outlawing abortion and opposing same-sex marriage and because he is a Mormon. Opposition is particularly powerful among those who supported former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in the Republican presidential primaries earlier this year.

"McCain and Romney would be like oil and water," said evangelical novelist Tim LaHaye, who supported Mr. Huckabee. "We aren't against Mormonism, but Romney is not a thoroughgoing evangelical and his flip-flopping on issues is understandable in a liberal state like Massachusetts, but our people won't understand that."

Forbes Predicts McCain Will Back Away From Cap-N-Trade

Sebelius, Kaine, Bayh, Biden

The Daily Bric-a-Brac

He says the number of likely GOP voters is up for now, probably in part because of Obama's trip and the "laudatory" media coverage of it. "At least in the short term it may have had the side effect of energizing Republicans," he says. Also, he says that McCain's sharp words about Obama and the media last week may have energized his faithful.

Club For Growth Worried About McCain's Social Security Bargaining

Dear Senator McCain:

We listened with concern yesterday to your interview with George Stephanopoulos on Social Security.  When asked if you would be open to raising the payroll tax, you refused to rule out a tax increase, saying "There is nothing that's off the table."

This statement was particularly shocking because you have been adamant in your opposition to raising taxes under any circumstances.  In a March 2007 interview with Ramesh Ponnuru of the National Review, you ruled out accepting tax increases as part of a compromise to entitlement reform.  And on February 17 of this year, you told George Stephanopoulos, "No new taxes . . . In fact, I could see an argument, if our economy continues to deteriorate, for lower interest rates, lower tax rates, and certainly decreasing corporate tax rates, which are the second highest in the world, giving people the ability to write off depreciation in a year, elimination of the AMT." 

We strongly applaud the above statement and believe further tax cuts would play an important role in stimulating the country's economy.  But your comments yesterday send American taxpayers and businesses a mixed message about where you stand on this issue.  Raising the payroll tax or the wage cap on Social Security taxes will increase the tax burden on many Americans and will only exacerbate the key problem with the current Social Security program--the low rate of return workers receive on their contributions into the system.  You have long been a strong supporter of personal Social Security accounts, and we hope you will reaffirm you commitment to free-market-based reforms without tax increases so that we can truly empower and enrich workers in their retirement years.

We hope you will clarify where you stand on this important issue and reaffirm your commitment to eschew all tax increases.

Sincerely,

Pat Toomey

President, Club for Growth

No comment from the McCain campaign.

Holtz-Eakin Doesn't Need No Educating...

"John McCain has no plans to raise taxes.  He has a strong commitment to reverse the fiscal profligacy of the past decade, control spending growth, and balance the budget.  Those commitments are clear and stand in contrast to Senator Obama.  Barack Obama has an ideologically-driven desire to raise tax rates that leaves the only current source of job growth -- small business -- at risk.  Barack Obama plans to expand the already-rapid growth in spending.  And Barack Obama has no plan to balance the budget."

The original version of this story contained a quote by John McCain's economics adviser, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, that some have misinterpreted as suggesting that McCain is not really a tax cutter. The quote has been amended to make clear that when Holtz-Eakin said "I stand corrected," he was referring to his previous statements that Obama raises taxes, not that McCain cuts them.

McCain: Budget News Makes Balancing "Harder"

From a statement released in John McCain's name by his campaign:

"I have an unmatched record in fighting wasteful earmarks and unnecessary spending in the U.S. Senate and I have the determination and experience to do the same as President. As President, I have committed to balancing the budget by the end of my first term. Today's news makes that job harder, but should not change our resolve to make the tough decisions and the genuine effort to reach across the aisle that are needed to ensure a lasting solution to the spending problem that threatens the very stability of our economy.

Itals are mine. In a conference call today, McCain's advisers insisted that the budget would essentially balance itself if Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security are reformed, if hundreds of billions in waste are trimmed from the budget, if troops begin to come home and Iraq begins to cost less, and if (when) McCain's tax cut proposals up the GDP (which would bring more revenue to the treasury,) etc. etc.   If, if, if.  Not that Obama would necessarily do any better here, but he's made it clear that a balanced budget is not a first or even second term goal. In his opening remarks a high-level summit of economic types this morning, Obama did not mention the word "budget," nor the word "deficit," and used "debt" when describing what Americans are mired in.  

The Doyenne Of Tabloid Media On Obama's Tab Strategy

Bonnie Fuller, writing in Ad Age:

If humanizing celebrities sells magazines and movie tickets, why wouldn't some "Obamas are just like us" stories help make voters feel more familiar and comfortable with the Obamas? After all, it's widely believed that George Bush managed to beat out Al Gore in the 2000 presidential campaign because Americans thought he'd be more fun to share a beer with than with "elitist" Al.

Oh, history. Presumably, Fuller forgets that Al Gore won a popular vote majority in 2000. So Bush didn't "beat out" Gore because of any particular characteristic; he won the election because his electoral college / legal strategy was superior (or the Supreme Court handed it to him, whichever you prefer.)

Maybe the margin would have been bigger had he been a better "pal," but there's no evidence, really, that the beer gap was dispositive. People seem to appreciate that they're voting for president, not for best friend.

Obama's image issues are different. He has an unusual name. His life story is 21st century American, not 20th century American. Internet rumors claim he's a Muslim. He's lived his adult life in urban Chicago.   

Is it really a coincidence that the ultra-warm Barack family People portrait appeared on newsstands just a week after a controversial New Yorker cover that satirized the Obamas as fist-jabbing Muslim militants?

Yes, actually, but Fuller's final point is true enough:

He and his wife are telegraphing in a brilliant marketing move that like Brangelina -- with their ubiquitous kids in their arms -- they are hands-on loving parents and devoted partners who live in a traditional All-American-style house, and yet are deeply concerned with the serious issues that affect you, the American voter.

Just Asking...

Does a mole excision from the face of a 72-year old presidential candidate with a long history of malignant skin cancer merit more coverage than a 47-year old tweaking his hip while playing hoops?

It's not the easiest question to ask, but...

Caution On An Obama Bounce

Mystery Pollster Mark Blumenthal is cautious:

It is true that some events produce a temporary "bounce" that rarely persists, especially if the coverage is uniformly good for one candidate and not so good for another (as seems to have been the case for the last few days). One possibility to consider is that surveys with short field periods might have some bias toward those who happened to be at home viewing that positive coverage.

Second, while Obama's lead on the Gallup was bigger than they have shown previously, it is only slightly bigger. Since Hillary Clinton endorsed him in early June, but before last week, Obama had led on the Gallup Daily by 7 points (once) and 6 percent (five times). And Gallup's data continues to show Obama doing very slightly better on weekends (but perhaps not significantly -- more on this issue later this week).

Third, and most important, if the volatility is about voter preferences and not poll methodology, it reflects the fact that (as David Moore has been reminding us) as many as a third of registered voters are willing to say they are less than certain about their choice. This hesitance is not unusual. Contrary to what Robert Novak implies in his column today, candidates rarely "close the deal" with uncertain voters in July, especially when they are non-incumbents and relative newcomers.

 The Obama campaign is unconvincingly trying to lower expectations, with Obama even suggesting that the polls might tighten because he was overaseas. (Did his team neglect to show him McCain's national press clips?)  Wait a week... and wait for a few national polls to come out.. and then make your conclusions. 

The Cover Up?

Double Entendre Kisses Off MoveOn's Youth Moblization Effort

MoveOn.Org claims this is the first political ad to air on Comedy Central:

"I've been living with it for a while now."

No, not the syph.

It's "hope."  The guy on the right is Rider Strong from "Boy Meets World."  The commercial also features Amber Benson from "Buffy The Vampire Slayer."

MoveOn is spending $150,000 to air the advertisement on MTV and Comedy Central, according to a spokesman. 

Prominent GOP Strategist To Me: "Insane."

A VP Choice, Fedexed To McCain?

A dark horse, to be sure, but some McCain advisers are asking others what they'd think about Frederick Smith, the chief executive officer of  Federal Express. Mr. Smith is 64, an articulate spokesperson for Republican economic principles, knowledgable about globalization and economic flattening, and a long-time friend of McCain's, to boot. He was also a Marine and served in Vietnam, earning a chest full of medals.  And while he's a reliable support of GOP causes, he has many Democratic friends....  

A Defense Of McCain's Strategy

CW tells us that John McCain's ADD-like inability to focus on domestic policy issues and the campaign's repetitive, reactive taunting of Barack Obama will burn through whatever goodwill he has with independent voters.

The truth is McCain's strategy may be at once reactionary, ill-conceived, and entirely rational, especially during this pre-convention period. While in excess of 90% of self-identified Republicans support McCain, this segment of the electorate has shrunk. A lot of Republican leaners no longer identify as Republicans. Instead, they identify as independents. Their political identities have changed; their ideology has stayed the same.

As political scientists Karen Kaufman, John Petrocik and Daron Shaw point out in Unconventional Wisdom, "party voting is at its highest level when candidates are typical representatives of their party and no exceptional issue or event is on the public agenda."  McCain is atypical of Republicans, and there are at least two issues -- Iraq and the economy -- which serve to uncercut the appeal of the incumbent party.  It stands to reason, then, that his first challenge is to solidify Republicans. He has the solid Republicans; what he needs is the least solid Republicans; the "moderates," the Republican-leaning independents, the weak partisan identifiers.

If the hypothesis that Iraq has become a partisan issue is correct, and if McCain has figured out how to finesse the energy issue, it stands to reason that weakly partisan Republicans are beginning to re-associate with the party they've historically associated with.

So being partisan now -- and from now and until the convention -- might not be the worst thing in the world for McCain.

The Education Of Douglas Holtz-Eakin?

STEPHANOPOULOS: Social Security. You're a longtime supporter of the private accounts, as President Bush called for them. 

MCCAIN: I am a supporter of sitting down together and putting everything on the table and coming up with an answer. So, there is nothing I would take off the table. There was nothing I would demand.  I think that's the way that Ronald Reagan and Tip O'Neill did it. And that's what we have to do again. 

STEPHANOPOULOS: In the past you said there was essentially -- and you told the "Wall Street Journal"... 

MCCAIN: No, I have said and will say, I will say that everything has to be on the table, if we're going to reach a bipartisan agreement. I've been in bipartisan negotiations before. I know how you reach a conclusion. We all have to sit down together with everything on the table. 

STEPHANOPOULOS: So, that means payroll tax increases are on the table, as well? 

MCCAIN: There is nothing that's off the table. I have my positions, and I'll articulate them. But nothing's off the table.

The Iraq Convergence

McCain Ad Blasts Obama's "Troop" Visit Snafu

Anncr: Barack Obama never held a single Senate hearing on Afghanistan.

He hadn't been to Iraq in years.

He voted against funding our troops.

And now, he made time to go to the gym, but cancelled a visit with wounded troops.

Seems the Pentagon wouldn't allow him to bring cameras.

John McCain is always there for our troops.

McCain. Country first.

John McCain: I'm John McCain and I approve this message.

"John McCain is an honorable man who is running an increasingly dishonorable campaign. Senator McCain knows full well that Senator Obama strongly supports and honors our troops, which is what makes this attack so disingenuous. Senator Obama was honored to meet with our men and women in uniform in Iraq and Afghanistan this week and has visited wounded soldiers at Walter Reed numerous times. This politicization of our soldiers is exactly what Senator Obama sought to avoid, and it's not worthy of Senator McCain or the 'civil' campaign he claimed he would run."

McCain Ad Blasts Obama's Troop Snafu

Anncr: Barack Obama never held a single Senate hearing on Afghanistan.

He hadn't been to Iraq in years.

He voted against funding our troops.

And now, he made time to go to the gym, but cancelled a visit with wounded troops.

Seems the Pentagon wouldn't allow him to bring cameras.

John McCain is always there for our troops.

McCain. Country first.

John McCain: I'm John McCain and I approve this message.

For Once, Republicans On The Leading Edge Of The Online Tech Curve

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Veepstakes Rumor Du Jour

A Respite And A Migration

Today, the web wizards of the Atlantic Media Company will migrate this blog to a more advanced version of Moveable Type.

That’ll take a while.

I'll be back in a few hours.

In the meantime....

Assess John McCain's week and share your comments below.

Who Are Independents And What Do They Want?

Alex Gage of Targetpoint consulting sends along a fascinating study of independent voters he and Alex Lundry completed in June. Mr. Gage was a senior strategist for Mitt Romney's presidential campaign and was the chief microtargeter for the Bush-Cheney re-election 2004 campaign.

Gage and Lundy urveyed 900 independent voters to assess existing attitudes about the two presidential candidates and figure out optimal ways to persuade independents to support them.

Today, the results of the survey.

Yes, Mr. Gage and his team want to help Republicans; if current trends don't change, they estimate that Democrats stand to gain several million voters over the next few years.

Among the key findings: Democrats have a built-in structural advantage among independents to the score of between five and ten points. But McCain remains competitive because a lot of those independents are ideological conservatives who have weak partisan attachments to the Republican Party. Without being pushed, 45% of the sample, including 59% of the self-described moderates in the sample, said they would vote for Obama and 39% said they would vote for McCain. With leaners, McCain makes up two points of the margin.

Political scientists often break independents into two categories: engaged party switchers - those high-information voters who base their decisions on issues and a rational appraisal of the candidates - and a category of voters who are interested in politics but don't know a lot about the issues and thus are swayed fairly easily by good messaging. Gage's survey seems targeted at both types of swing voters.

On issues, a supermajority believe that the U.S. has an "obligation" to establish stability in Iraq; about half care about gun issues, with a plurality supporting gun control; less than half vote on abortion, with more pro-choice identifiers than pro-life identifiers. 56% of the sample support making permanent the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003.

The candidates

Obama is seen as a candidate of the future; an agent of change; the positive words they associate with him are "change" "future" and reform. " McCain is seen as the more competent candidate; the positive words associated with him are "experience" and "integrity." Independents feel "warmer" about Obama than McCain. The demographic cleavages that exist within the electorate - Obama's loved by the young and McCain is popular with older folks - exist within the sample of independents, too.

Continue reading "Who Are Independents And What Do They Want?" »

McCain, Armstrong Live Strong

COLUMBUS -- Here are bugbears that make Sen. John McCain angry: states that use money from last decade’s tobacco settlement for purposes other than cancer care and prevention. (That’s most every state in the union.)

"It's disgraceful," McCain told delegates at an annual gathering of Lance Armstrong’s Livestrong
foundation.

McCain’s war against the tobacco companies – and this former POW does believe the metaphor is appropriate – stands as a self-acknowledged failure. In 1997, McCain was the moving force behind legislation to expand government powers to regulate tobacco and to levy a tax on cigarettes of more than a dollar per pack. In 1998, the legislation failed, but McCain helped to broker the industry’s $338 billion settlement with state legislators.

McCain developed an antipathy to tobacco lobbyists. He once threw lobbyist Charlie Black out of his Senate office because Black worked for Phillip Morris at that time. (Black now works for McCain as a strategist.)

McCain now opposes sin taxes on cigarettes. He said he worries that Congress would put the additional money into a general revenue pool. "Does anyone here have confidence in Congress?" he asked the crowd. Moderator Paula Zahn was skeptical. Might McCain change his mind if researchers proved that raisng the tobacco tax would help lower smoking rates?

"It would have to be proved. I don 't think it's in the constitution of this Congress.” He hastened to add, “By the way, I’m not for anybody’s taxes.” He later implied that raising the cigarette tax would lead to more smoking as a way of explaining his decision not to support a Democratic attempt to use a tax hike to pay for more children’s health insurance. McCain said he would sign legislation establishing the FDA’s authority to regulate tobacco.

McAuliffe Clarifies Kaine 'Endorsement'

Tracy Sefl, an adviser to former Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe:

"Terry McAuliffe obviously thinks very highly of Governor Kaine and was praising him in his trademark, exuberant way to a packed room of Virginia Democrats. There's a tremendous field of potential Vice Presidential candidates, including Senator Clinton and Governor Kaine. And Mr. McAuliffe supports whatever decision Senator Obama makes."

Another McCain Poke At The Media

Here's what Sen. John McCain plans to say at the top his remarks to the audience at Lance Armstrong's presidential town hall meeting in Columbus, OH:

"You have billed this event as a Presidential Town Hall, and I sincerely hope that the next president is here today. My opponent, of course, is traveling in Europe, and tomorrow his tour takes him to France. In a scene Lance would recognize, a throng of adoring fans awaits Senator Obama in Paris -- and that's just the American press."

Why I Haven't Written About _That_ Story

You know the one I'm talking about. About him.

Honestly, I have nothing new or interesting to say about it. When I do, I will write about it.

Notes From The J.V. Squad: A 4:45 pm ET Call Time

COLUMBUS, OH -- Sometimes it's good to be on the junior varsity squad.

We arrived in Columbus, Ohio last night to find that (a) our baggage had neglected to make the trip with us and (b) McCain would not have a public event until late tonight -- 7:00 pm ET, when he speaks with Lance Armstrong at a Livestrong cancer forum. So most of us have been hanging out the lobby of the Renaissance hotel in downtown Columbus watching the orgy of cable coverage devoted to Obama's overseas trip. I noticed that McCain, in a consolation interview with MSNBC, confirmed that he, too, had begun to plan for his presidential transition.

Paraphrasing Lloyd Bridges: I certainly picked the right day to leave my battery charger on "Straight Talk Air."

We head to Denver late tonight. Tomorrow, McCain will make a short hop to the Aspen Institute and chat, very briefly, with the Dalai Lama. This is not a PR stunt; McCain accepted the invitation as a favor to the Aspen Institute's Walter Isaacson. Nice photos, though.

The McCain campaign is obviously happy with the new surveys from Quinnipiac showing a competitive race in several key battleground states, including and especially Michigan and Colorado. C. Cillizza makes a point of noting that the data from the new surveys does not explain McCain's more solid numbers. I have a theory. McCain's emphasis on Iraq and the elite's conclusion that the Surge was a success, combined with the campaign's push on energy, has made weakly-partisan Republicans feel more comfortable and confident about their nominee.

Macker Said What?!?!?!?

Uber Clinton loyalist Terry McAullife wants Obama to choose his guy for VP.

You heard it right. His guy.

The former national chairman of the Democratic Party who ran Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign this year told 200 Democratic activists in Fairfax County Tuesday that Virginia Governor Tim Kaine would be his party's best choice as Barack Obama's vice presidential running mate.

McAuliffe was adamant in his recommendation of Kaine as the Democratic Party's vice presidential nominee Tuesday, although he stressed to the News-Press after his speech, which included an informal half-hour question and answer period, that the ultimate choice will be Obama's very personal one.

However, the fact that he proposed Kaine over his own candidate and long-time friend, Hillary Clinton, suggested that he knows the Clinton option is off the table.

He told the large audience in the school cafeteria that there are only two factors in picking a vice president. The first, he said, is the ability of the choice to govern effectively as president, if need be. The second is personal compatibility with the presidential candidate.

So does he know something we don't?

Das Ein In Berlin ; Or, America As Global Citizen

Nora McAlvanah's guest post provoked a flood of angry e-mails into my inbox, and to tell you the truth, I kind of agree with some of their sentiments: who, exactly, set these strictures that Obama has fallen afoul of?

What's so bad about Germans cheering an American, especially when the visuals were stunning. Hundreds of American flags, waving. 200,000 Berliners cheering an American presidential candidate.

A short speech, mostly, carrying the message that animates Obama's presidency:

The message of the speech was the common values that unite the citizens of the world. Obama's Berlin is a shining beacon of hope to the world, "where a wall came down, a continent came together, and history proved that there is so challenge too great for a world that stands as one."

The "burdens of global citizenship continue to bind us together. A change in leadership in Washington will not lift this burden in the new century, Americans and Europeans alike will be required to do more, not less."

Is this too presumptuous? Is it what globally conscious Americans have been longing to hear? Will Americans be able to distinguish between the domestic politics of foreign nations and the foreign politics of our nation? This is a show, to be sure. Will it be renewed in the fall? Or dropped from the schedule?

McCain Responds To Obama In Germany

Sen. McCain will talk to reporters a little later, but his campaign spokesman, Tucker Bounds, had this to say:

"While Barack Obama took a premature victory lap today in the heart of Berlin, proclaiming himself a 'citizen of the world,' John McCain continued to make his case to the American citizens who will decide this election. Barack Obama offered eloquent praise for this country, but the contrast is clear. John McCain has dedicated his life to serving, improving and protecting America. Barack Obama spent an afternoon talking about it."

GOPers Wait a Lifetime for a Moment Like This

A guest post from

Nora McAlvanah

GOPers may have a field day with at least one oft-used-line from Obama’s speech today, which he amended slightly for his Berlin audience:

“America, this is our moment. This is our time” – Obama, speaking in MN the night he officially won the Dem nomination (6/3).

“People of Berlin -- people of the world -- this is our moment. This is our time” – Obama, in his first formal speech of his foreign tour (7/24).

What ad guru won’t be tempted to play the clips back-to-back, only one to a widely ecstatic cheering crowd of Europeans? Insert announcer with an appropriately unnerving, deep voice, asking: “Which is it, Obama? Who’s moment? Who’s time?”

It’s not John Kerry showing off his proficiency in French. Quiet the opposite, really. But maybe when a candidate is on foreign soil he shouldn’t use such un-foreign rhetoric.

Biden Wasted No Time In 2008

What a spring Sen. Joe Biden has had:

President Bush signed into law: Biden's (and Sam Brownback's) Second Chance act, which appropriated hundreds of millions of dollars to help criminals transition back to society. Next week, Bush will sign PEPFAR, a global HIV/AIDS bill that Biden played a key role in shepharding through the Congress. He led a CODEL to Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkey. His legislation reducing the crack/powder cocaine disparity will be considered in the fall. His approach to Pakistan has become the default approach supported by both Republicans and Democrats.

He's delivered three major foreign policy speeches, including one -- at Georgetown's Gaston Hall -- that helped to influence how the Obama campaign frames John McCain's national security judgment. He led early hearings on the global food crisis and the rising crime rate, two issues on which the two presidential candidates are behind the curve; his legislation authorizing helicopters for Darfur passed the approps committee; he's held numerous oversight hearings on Iraq and foreign policy....

The point of this isn't to blow smoke at the Delaware Senator. It's to pause and wonder whether he wouldn't be just as happy being a senior senator under a President Obama as he would be a vice president. His stamp on policy would be larger than it is even now, and he'd have far fewer ceremonial duties.

On the other hand, no top-tier potential Democratic vice presidential candidate can lay claim to have had as productive a spring as Biden.

And yes -- Biden allies -- Obama and his team are very aware of this.

Obama Team Begins Work On Presidential Transition

With less than six months to go before he would be sworn in as the nation’s 44th president, Sen. Barack Obama has directed his aides to begin planning for the transition.

"Barack is well aware of the complexity and the organizational challenge involved in the transition process and he has tasked s small group to begin thinking through the process,” a senior campaign adviser said. “Barack has made his expectations clear about what he wants from such a process, how he wants it to move forward, and the establishment and execution of his timeline is proceeding apace.”

Last month, the Post’s Shalaigh Murray reported that campaign advisers were sounding out John Podesta, a former White House chief of staff to President Bill Clinton and currently the president of the Center for American Progress, for his advice.

An aide confirms that Podesta will probably be asked to head the transition team, which would take over from the campaign if Obama wins in November, and would be tasked with ensuring a smooth handover of power.

Podesta’s Center for American Progress is working with the Third Way think tank on a Homeland Security Presidential Transition Initiative; its director is Michael Signer, a former senior policy aide to Ex-Sen. John Edwards.

Cassandra Butts, a longtime Obama friend who is a CAP executive vice president, is working closely with Podesta.

Butts, via e-mail, would not confirm her participation in the project.

Podesta remains a close friend of both Clintons and his participation will help assuage the concerns of Clinton-era Democratic policy and political appointees who might have felt abandoned in an Obama administration.

New Presidents have only three months to complete a herculean remaking of the equivalent of ten of the world's biggest companies. Most presidential candidates don’t spend precious campaign time thinking about to do, so the questions come fast and furious: how do you your turn your ideas into policy? What do you do first? What does Congress expect? What last-minute executive orders should you overturn? What will your first 100 days look like? How will you vet and when will you appoint major cabinet secretaries and political appointees? What’s he proper balance of power between executive department? Budgets, costs, logistics?

Continue reading "Obama Team Begins Work On Presidential Transition" »

No Orleans

ALLENTOWN, PA -- Sittin' on the tarmac waitin' for the candidate. But -- surprise -- we're headed to Columbus, Ohio instead of New Orleans. No oil rig photo op in hurricane weather. No meeting wtih Gov. Jindal either.

McCain Defends Anbar-Before-Surge Scenario

"Yesterday," a reporter asked McCain, "you suggested that the surge in Iraq predated the Anbar rebellion, and actually the Anbar rebellion came a couple of months previously. Did you misspeak, or did you have something else in mind?"

McCain said that he was referring to the successful counterinsurgency strategy in the Anbar -- the co-option of the Sunni sheiks -- which provided a model for troops who later surged into the country.

“First of all, a surge is really a counter-insurgency strategy," McCain said.

I'll separate that, because McCain says it often. Most of us equate the surge with troop levels, but for McCain, it has always been about a strategy; to executive the strategy, more troops were needed.

Colonel McFarland, in Anbar province, McCain said, "had already initiated that strategy in Ramadi by going in and clearing and holding in certain places. That is a counter-insurgency. And he told me at that time that he believed that that strategy, which is quote the surge, part of the surge, would be, would be, successful. So then, of course, it was very clear that we needed additional troops in order to carry out this insurgency. Prior to that -- counter insurgency. Prior to that they had been going into places, killing people or not killing people, and then withdrawing. And the new counter-insurgency, the surge, entailed going in and clearing and holding, which Colonel McFarland had already started doing. And then of course, later on, there were additional troops, and General Petraeus said that the surge would not have worked, and the Anbar Awakening would not have taken place, successfully, if they hadn’t had an increase in the number of troops."

"So I’m not sure frankly that people really understand that a surge is part of counter-insurgency strategy which means going in, clearing, holding, building a better life, providing services to the people. And then clearly a part of that, an important part of it, was additional troops to help insure the safety of the sheiks, to gain control of Ramadi, which was a very bloody fight, and then the surge would continue to succeed as a counter-insurgency.’’

Say Something Nice About T-Paw, But Bring Up Jindal Spontaneously

From an impromptu press availability:

Elisabeth Bumiller (New York Times) -- Can I ask you about your feelings about Tim Pawlenty right now? Talk that he is top on the list.

McCain: "You know Elizabeth that I can’t but when we’re – we can’t mention any names – we have the process going on."

Bumiller: "You can’t say anything positive about him?"

McCain: "Oh Tim. I’m sorry. He’s a great, fine person. Reelected in one of the toughest reelection years in the history of the Republican party. He comes from a –- his father I am pretty sure -- drove a truck. He has pretty successfully been able to work across the aisle in Minnesota with the Democrats. And I think he is, he, Bobby Jindal and a number of governors, I think are the future of the Republican party. The next generation of leadership."

An Ad In Oregon Is A Little Oily

What's good for the goose isn't always good for the gander.

This screen grab comes from a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ad criticizing Sen. Gordon Smith for supporting tax breaks for the wealthy and big oil companies. The ad cites Smith's vote for the 2005 energy bill.

Which, of course, Barack Obama supported.

And John McCain opposed.

Michigan Democrats Take On Romney

Should John McCain decide to pick Mitt Romney to be his vice president, he might want to check his new friend's availability. That's because Romney is an official guest at the opening ceremonies of the Beijing Olympics on August 8 and intends to stay for most of the games. Surely, he'd be back in a heartbeat if McCain decides to ask him to join...

Anticipating McCain's choice, Michigan Democrats released a web ad criticizing Romney's fitness as an economic steward. The portrays Romney as a private sector robber barron who urged companies he "turned around" to profit by cutting jobs and outsourcing. (This is Michigan, remember?) about his potential inclusion on their Presidential ticket.

The Atlantic Panel On Iraq As A Campaign Issue

Here's the first installment of The Atlantic Panel. Each of the two dozen respondents said they did not know who they would for. I asked them whether Iraq would be important to their votes and why.

One writes:

"I am torn between my desire to see the troops come home (which Obama promises/-ed) and trying to measure each candidates judgment on the use of the military. It would be simple for me to connect the dots that "Obama wants the troops out - I want the troops out - Iraqis want the troops out", but just because he (Obama) may be correct right now doesn't mean he was 18 months ago. It is quite possible that McCain's judgment about the surge is the reason that the rest of the discussion is even possible."

A Bush '00 and '04 voter favors Obama's position on withdrawal, but he worries that Obama will "set a timetable based on what the left tells him to do, rather than what's correct, and he'll leave too soon and leave our forces vulnerable to attack."

Indeed, there's a lot of skepticism about both whether either candidate will follow through. One panelist worries that Obama is saying we will get out fast because that is what his base is wanting" and "McCain is playing the stay the course card because that is what his base wants."

A father from Florida "wants to know that McCain is committed to leaving Iraq. The actual timeline is less important than the idea that one exists."

A sales manager "does not perceive too much of a difference in the candidates' forward-looking Iraq policies, more so argument over who had the best judgment over the past five years. I think we have a chance to declare victory and leave with McCain emphasizing the former and Obama that latter - whoever can combine the two most clearly will "win" that issue for me."

A Baltimore public school teacher:

While I like the symbolic nature of Mr. Obama's campaign, I am having trouble swallowing his packet of promises and the tax increases they would bring. Likewise, Mr. McCain does not exactly fill my with great joy, since many of the same party chiefs that are currently in power would remain.

A 28-year old man from New York City

I am not at all certain that either side's promises for the future matter much at all. Both the McCain and Obama camps seem quite likely to take a measure of the actual situation on the ground before making a decision as to how to proceed

A Reagan Democrat turned Democratic-leaning independent does not "for an instant" credit Obama "with courage or judgment" for the war "just because he made a Putin or De
Villepin-like anti war speech to fellow leftists to pander to them in his liberal Hyde Park District back in 2002." So he's voting for McCain, right? Not necessarily. "But Iraq will not be the only thing, or even the primary thing I vote on. The economy, corruption of democracy by special
interests, inability of government to work well with Republicans running it are more important matters."

Bush To Speak On Sept. 1

President Bush plans to speak to the Republican National Convention on Monday, September 1, the White House said today.

Primetime, sure. But most networks will devote a single hour to the convention.

Why Obama Dominates The News Coverage

IN A BASEMENT OF A BIG BUILDING IN WILKES-BARRE, PA --

A. Stanley writes:

But it’s not pro-Obama bias in the news media that’s driving the effusion of coverage, it’s the news: Mr. Obama’s weeklong tour of war zones and foreign capitals is noteworthy because it is so unusual to see a presidential candidate act so presidential overseas. Mr. Obama looks supremely confident and at home talking to generals and heads of state, so much so that some viewers may find the pose presumptuous — as if Mr. Obama believes that not only is his official nomination at the Democratic convention in August a mere formality, so is the November election.

Well -- the news, surely, but what precisely about the news?

Well, the leaders of Europe and the Middle East are treating Obama as if he were the next president. And it shows, in words and pictures.

That's because, probably, they expect him to be the next president even if they're not entirely sure that the crisp cut of his jib reflects an inner competence. It's a soft power world now, and Obama exudes soft power these days. And cuddling up to the guy who most people think will be next leader of the free world is probably a smart thing to do.

It is possible to make too much of King Abdullah's turn as a chauffeur by the way; after all, he once drove our own Jeffrey Goldberg -- a man of esteem and substance, but, alas, with no pretensions of power, around Amman.

Pawlenty's Promise And A Romney Float...

The political world is buzzing today about Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who spent hours yesterday at John McCain's Arlington, VA campaign headquarters and who, according to a source of CNN's Dana Bash, was mentioned by McCain quite favorably and without bidding during a meeting.

Someone else in the meeting confirmed that McCain indeed mentioned Pawlenty but did not find McCain's tone unusual. (McCain also praised Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani.)

McCain's campaign awaits his decision. A full-time staff has already been appointed to service the political and scheduling needs of the eventual vice presidential nominee, and prominent floor space at campaign headquarters has been set aside. The staff reports to campaign manager Rick Davis.

Some allies of Mitt Romney have suggested, in meetings with campaign advisers, that McCain make his pick -- Romney -- sooner, rather than later. They're floating this scenario: McCain picks Romney in early August, and Romney spends three days holding closed-door fundraisers. Then, Romney cloisters himself, bones up on everything that needs boning up, and gets reintroduced at the convention with a major speech. And then McCain and Romney embark on a Midwestern bus tour a la Clinton and Gore in 1992. Just a thought...

Not Jindal; A Visit To An Oil Rig

So the reason why Sen. John McCain is traveling to Louisiana tomorrow has nothing to do with Gov. Bobby Jindal, per se

The McCain campaign tells us that, hurricane-condition permitting, McCain will chopper out to an oil rig and talk about off-shore oil drilling.

As Jonathan Martin notes, the idea is to provide some TV quality pictures to contrast Sen. Barack Obama's rally in Berlin.

The campaign blames the press for it, but the pictures associated with McCain this week haven't been terrific.

McCain was shown sitting on a golf cart with former President Bush. (Press's fault.) McCain stood before a white background at his press availability yesterday at an energy company in New Hampshire thereby reducing the contrast between his white hair and the background. (Press's fault.) The New Hampshire Union Leader reported that only one photographer showed up to record McCain's airport arrival. (Press's fault.)

McCain: When I Withdraw, We're Done. With Obama, We Might Have To Return

WILKES-BARRE, PA -- Barack Obama still won't endorse the surge, and that, says John McCain, is evidence of collosal misjudgment McCain says Obama is reckless -- committed to withdrawing troops even if doing so would set off a civil war If McCain is president and his strategy prevails, "We will come home. We will come home with victory and honor, but we will never have to go back," he said.

"So, when Senator Obama says well if we don't succeed, we may have to go back in, we might."

At his second town hall meeting in two days, McCain faced politely critical questions. One questioner, who described himself as a veteran, plaintively asked McCain to take better care of veterans.

Though Obama is in Israel, McCain did not address his opponent when asked about the future of the country.

The campaign canceled a press conference but aides said that he would take questions at a pooled press event later in the day. Instead of the press conference, the campaign scheduled an interview with the only network correspondent who is traveling with McCain today: ABC's David Wright. The campaign has grumbled about the lack of attention from network correspondents this week.

Demigod Watch

Touché.

Messiah Watch Returns!

It's been a while, but...

Re: Obama's German-language flier.

The visuals are definitely not conventional American printcraft; when was the last time you saw an American politician be portrayed from such an unusual angle? And the cartoonishly stylized photograph? The subject is other-wordly. (A side note: the Obama logo isn't widely known outside the U.S., which explains why Obama's name is relatively more prominent.)

Tales From The JV Squad: No Press Avail

WILKES-BARRE, PA -- The one scheduled McCain press conference of the week has just been canceled, we are told. No word as to why. Grumble, grumble.

Why? Scheduling. Which is like answering "food" to "what did you eat for breakfast."

My bet is that the campaign much prefers local and regional interviews. Us national press folks will ask qualitatively different questions -- McCain v. the press, McCain v. history, McCain v. Obamania... The priority here in northern Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional district is on getting good local news coverage.

McCain's New Line, Continued

PITTSTON, PA -- John McCain's new language yesterday...

This is a clear choice that the American people have. I had the courage and the judgment to say I would rather lose a political campaign than lose a war. It seems to me that Obama would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign.

....has driven liberals of all stripes and hues into a tizzy, which is probably why it so delights the McCain campaign.

Is McCain accusing Obama (and the half of the country (or more) who agrees with him) of treason?

The campaign doesn't think so, but no one will parse the phrase. And they think the line is entirely appropriate and defensible and say that McCain will continue to use it.

McCain has a press availability today, and I bet he'll be asked to explain what he means.

Extended Versions Of Couric's Interviews

Below, read the extended passage from Couric's interview where McCain describes the Anbar Awakening, which McCain appears to imply happened prior to the surge. Maybe it's Stockholm syndrome, maybe it's the Olbermann program, but check the passage once more. What McCain might have been saying -- and this blog tends to give candidates the benefit of the doubt -- is that the surge helped the Anbar Awakening to succeed because the shieks could actually be protected. But if the Awakening is a chicken and the surge is an egg, the chicken came before the egg.

If you're inclined to criticize McCain, perhaps you can start with my colleague Matthew Yglesias's point:

But the surge troops were overwhelmingly sent to increase the level of manpower in Baghdad (i.e., not where the Anbar Awakening happened) and almost certainly (along with a tactical shift to more of a population protection mission) deserves credit for reducing the bloodshed in Baghdad by stabilizing the borders between now-segregated neighborhoods. I'm not sure I would go so far as to say that it had nothing to do what happened in Anbar, but it wasn't a major factor,

COURIC: Sen. McCain, Sen. Obama says, while the increased number of US troops contributed to increased security in Iraq, he also credits the Sunni awakening and the Shiite government going after militias. And says that there might have been improved security even without the surge. What's your response to that? MCCAIN: I don't know how you respond to something that is such a false depiction of what actually happened. Colonel McFarlane was contacted by one of the major Sunni sheiks. Because of the surge we were able to go out and protect that sheik and others. And it began the Anbar awakening. I mean, that's just a matter of history. Thanks to General Petraeus, our leadership, and the sacrifice of brave young Americans. I mean, to deny that their sacrifice didn't make possible the success of the surge in Iraq, I think, does a great disservice to young men and women who are serving and have sacrificed.

They were out there. They were protecting these sheiks. We had the Anbar awakening. We now have a government that's effective. We have a legal system that's working, although poorly. And we have progress on all fronts. Including-- an incredible measure of security for the people of Iraq. There will still be attacks. Al Qaeda's not defeated. But the progress has been immense. And to not recognize that, and why it happened, and how it happened, I think is really quite a commentary.

Some Humour For A Weary McCain Press Corps

His staff passed out a credential tonight.

In English and French, the credential reads:

McCain Press Corps JV Squad

"Left Behind To Report In America."

On the other side, the same phrase, in French.

Chalabi's Revenge

The estimable Jeffrey Goldberg:

Two sources, one in Iraq, the other in Washington, told me that Ahmed Chalabi was key in Maliki's decision to rather ostentatiously endorse Barack Obama's Iraq withdrawal time-line. Chalabi, of course, has been in and out -- mostly out -- of favor with the Bush Administration, but it's not merely revenge that motivated his advice to Maliki. "Chalabi knows American politics better than nearly every other Iraqi politician, and he knows it's time to line up with the candidate who has the better-than-even shot of becoming President," one source told me.

Novakenfreude

BALTIMORE -- The McCain campaign reacted with amusement to columnist Bob Novak's concession that his tip from a McCain source seemed too good to check out.

Officially, the campaign won't comment on Novak's report even now, and they concede that the strategy of non-response has increased attention from reporters -- although, as one veteran McCain adviser said, "I'm not sure whether that's a good thing."

Body language wise, there are no telltale wiggles. As of today, there are no unexplained gaps on his schedule. McCain hasn't really had the time to meet with his finalists -- assuming he has them -- yet.

Other campaign aides concede that a large universe of choices has been narrowed, that vetting has begun in earnest, that the usual suspects -- Crist, Romney, Pawlenty -- among others have been asked to submit information.

There are some indications that the campaign is looking to the example set by George H.W. Bush in 1988. His team deftly built up suspense. McCain, of course, is not looking to choose another Dan Quayle, and he will almost certainly interview his finalists -- the elder Bush did not.

McCain's New Line On Obama

When we adopted the surge, we were losing the war in Iraq, and I stood up and said I would rather lose a campaign than lose a war. Apparently Sen. Obama, who does not understand what's happening in Iraq or fails to acknowledge the success in Iraq, would rather lose a war than lose a campaign.

Folks on the press bus say that the italicized sentence is new to McCain's oeuvre. So far today, he's used it twice.

McCain Disputes Obama Account Of The Surge

In the third of three excerpts from tonight's presidential candidate interviews on the CBS Evening News, Sen. John McCain calls Sen. Obama's account of why the surge succeeded a "false account" of history.

Couric: Senator McCain, Senator Obama says, while the increased number of US troops contributed to increased security in Iraq, he also credits the Sunni awakening and the Shiite government going after militias. And says that there might have been improved security even without the surge. What's your response to that? McCain: I don't know how you respond to something that is as-- such a false depiction of what actually happened. Colonel McFarlane [phonetic] was contacted by one of the major Sunni sheiks. Because of the surge we were able to go out and protect that sheik and others. And it began the Anbar awakening. I mean, that's just a matter of history. Thanks to General Petraeus, our leadership, and the sacrifice of brave young Americans. I mean, to deny that their sacrifice didn't make possible the success of the surge in Iraq, I think, does a great disservice to young men and women who are serving and have sacrificed.

They were out there. They were protecting these sheiks. We had the Anbar awakening. We now have a government that's effective. We have a legal system that's working, although poorly. And we have progress on all fronts. Including-- an incredible measure of security for the people of Iraq. There will still be attacks. Al Qaeda's not defeated. But the progress has been immense. And to not recognize that, and why it happened, and how it happened, I think is-- is really quite a commentary.

Couric: A commentary on what?

McCain: That Senator Obama does not understand the challenges we face. And ... not understand the need for the surge. And-- and the fact that he did not understand that, and still denies that it has succeeded, I think the American people will make their judgment. And I think that they will agree with me, that at enormous sacrifice, after four years, nearly four years of failed strategy, we have succeeded. And our troops will come home with honor. And we won't be defeated. And there won't be chaos in the region. There won't be increased Iranian influence in the region. And it will have a bearing on what happens in Afghanistan, as well as the entire region of the world. And I'm proud of what they've done. And to deny their success-- I think is a fundamental misunderstanding of what happened. The American people will make a judgment.

Obama: Israeli Strike Against Syria Last Year "Appropriate"

More from an exclusive preview of Katie Couric's interview with Barack Obama:

Couric: If they reject negotiating-- if they reject negotiations, how likely do you think a preemptive military strike by Israel against Iran may be?

Obama: I-- I will not hypothesize on that. I think-- Israel has a right to defend itself. But I will not speculate on-- the-- the difficult judgment that they would have to make-- in a whole host of possible scenarios.

Couric: This is not a speculative question then. Was it appropriate, in your view, for Israel to take out that suspected Syrian nuclear site last year?

Obama: Yes. I think that there was sufficient evidence that they were developing-- a site using a nuclear-- or using a-- a blueprint that was similar to the North Korean model. There was some concern as to what the rationale for that site would be. And, again, ultimately, I think these are decisions that the Israelis have to make. But-- you know, the Israelis live in a very tough neighborhood where-- a lot of folks-- publicly-- proclaim Israel as an enemy and then act on those proclamations. And-- I think that-- you know, it-- it's important for-- for me not to-- you know, engage in speculation on what steps they need to take. What I can do is to provide leadership-- so that the United States government hopefully doesn't get us into a position where-- those decisions are so difficult. That's why applying tough diplomacy, direct diplomacy, and tough sanctions-- where necessary is so important.

And, as Obama lands in Tel Aviv, he admits to Couric that his AIPAC pronouncement about an
"undivided" Jerusalem was "poorly phrased" but insists that he did not change his policy.

Obama , Couric Spar Over Surge

Check out this exchange between CBS Evening News anchor Katie Couric and Sen. Barack Obama about why Obama says he still wouldn't have supported the surge back then had he known it would help reduce violence so significantly.

Couric: But talking microcosmically, did the surge, the addition of 30,000 additional troops ... help the situation in Iraq?

Obama: Katie, as … you've asked me three different times, and I have said repeatedly that there is no doubt that our troops helped to reduce violence. There's no doubt.

Couric: But yet you're saying … given what you know now, you still wouldn't support it … so I'm just trying to understand this.

Obama: Because … it's pretty straightforward. By us putting $10 billion to $12 billion a month, $200 billion, that's money that could have gone into Afghanistan. Those additional troops could have gone into Afghanistan. That money also could have been used to shore up a declining economic situation in the United States. That money could have been applied to having a serious energy security plan so that we were reducing our demand on oil, which is helping to fund the insurgents in many countries. So those are all factors that would be taken into consideration in my decision-- to deal with a specific tactic or strategy inside of Iraq.

Couric: And I really don't mean to belabor this, Senator, because I'm really, I'm trying … to figure out your position. Do you think the level of security in Iraq …

Obama: Yes.

Couric … would exist today without the surge?

Obama: Katie, I have no idea what would have happened had we applied my approach, which was to put more pressure on the Iraqis to arrive at a political reconciliation. So this is all hypotheticals. What I can say is that there's no doubt that our U.S. troops have contributed to a reduction of violence in Iraq. I said that-- not just today, not just yesterday, but I've said that-- previously. What that doesn't change is that we've got to have a different strategic approach if we're going to make America as safe as possible.

Catch more from Couric's interview tonight on the CBS Evening News.

McCain Surrogate Suggests Troops Could Come In Fewer Than 16 Months

That's the word from Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM).

She was speaking on the now daily Scheunemann-McCain campaign policy call.

(Listen here.)

"He’d like troops to come home earlier than 16 months if the conditions allow it," she said.

Now, put aside the politics. One of the reasons why McCain opposes a 16 month timetable to remove all combat troops is because it would be next to impossible to arrange the logistics, or so say the commanders on the ground. (See ABC News's report here).

This tells us that under no circumstances would most combat troops be redeployed within sixteen months if McCain were president. And if Obama were president, 16 months would be too ambitious a task.

Randy Scheunemann, McCain's chief foreign policy aide, e-mails:

Representative Wilson said "..[McCain would] like troops to come home earlier than 16 months, if conditions allow it." The point she made is that Senator McCain is driven by conditions on the ground (security situation, capability of Iraqi forces, status of the enemy, logistics, etc. ) and the advice of military commanders that led our troop in achieving the successes to date. Senator Obama's unconditional 16 month timetable is artificial and ignores all these critical factors. Note too that the real focus of discussion is not all troops, since even Senator Obama leaves room for a residual force with, depending on the day or venue, varied missions and sized, according to 1 of his 300 foreign policy advisers, at 60,000 to 80,000 troops.

Vanity Fair Spoofs New Yorker; Portrays Cindy McCain As Drug Abuser

The jocks of the glossy magazine world have spoofed the nerds. Conde Nast's Vanity Fair has posted a mock cover showing Sen. John McCain dapping his wife Cindy, who cradles a armful of prescription drug bottles. A portrait of George W. Bush hands in the background of their fictional "house." McCain is shown resting on a walker.

Write the editors:

"We had our own presidential campaign cover in the works, which explored a different facet of the Politics of Fear, but we shelved it when The New Yorker’s became the “It Girl” of the blogosphere. Now, however, in a selfless act of solidarity with our downstairs neighbors here at the Condé Nast building, we’d like to share it with you. Confidentially, of course."

More meanspirited than the New Yorker? A funny parody?

Clever? Unfunny? Does VF have too much time on its hands?

Update:

This cartoon ran on 7/15 in the New York Daily News... the artist is Bill Bramhall.

Live Blogging A McCain Town Hall, Part III: Angry At McCain's Staff

McCain calls on a woman wearing a McCain button. She pulls out a piece of paper. "You are, without a doubt, a true American hero, and we all thank you for that."

She begins to give a speech. "I'm going to do a little straight talk," she says. "Mine is not really a question. It's a statement about a lot of your campaign staff members. I can tell you right now that I am going to be right on top of their shit list."

McCain: "Sssh!"

She says that she and other volunteers work harder than his staff.

McCain jokes that a lot of his paid staff "are on work release program."

"I'd believe it," the woman says. McCain "has gotta make some changes." McCain promises to have a staffer talk with her about her problems.

-------

A man asks McCain about his health plan b/c there's "a lot of buzz on the internet that your plan doesn't cover pre-existing conditions" and a friend of his with lupus. Man says he's "making his evaluation on character." McCain describes his health care credo. "But there are citizens that have pre-existing conditions. My proposal is very clear: we create government-approved plans. The state and federal government join together, create risk polls...come up with sufficient funding .. so that .. these people are taken care of." Says the federal government "will have to make a significant investment."

------

Man asks McCain if he's forgiven Mitt Romney because McCain "has a capacity to forgive." McCain: "Mitt has been a tremendous help to my campaign.. he and the entire Romney family have been wonderful...our party is united and we've got a lot of energizing work to do. ... I'm very concerned about Russia...because just recently the Czechs [describes Russia decision to cut oil supplies]... says Czechoslovakia but catches himself... "The Czech Republic"... mentions Iranian pressure on Georgia... Russia's behavior "is more and more autocratic. The internal stifling of dissent is of great concern."

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Anti-war critic begins to ask question... crowd begins to heckle.. baby begins to cry. When she says "our money"... crowd boos... a man yells "let her speak!".. "Our tax dollars are needed here for health care, infastructure repairs...real climate change..isn't it time to end the occupation." McCain: "You obviously represent the views of many Americans, and I respect those views." But "my first obligation is my country than my political ambitions. And I'll tell you why your respect your view, and I respect the fact that you would come here and state your view... it's far better than some of the shouting sometimes that exists between American because most Americans want us to have the kind of exchange we're having now."

-------

McCain promises to "do his best for the United States of America... promises not to put his party first.

A man bemoans the state of the Republican Party in New Hampshire.. worries about Sen. Sununu... McCain: "Across this state sir, I have to run an effective campaign, hold a lot of town hall meetings....I think that Sen. John Sununu is probably the smartest senator in the United States senate."

A question and answer on Katrina.

McCain ends: "I am so grateful for the opportunity to engage in another town hall meeting. I think this is what I have to do in order to succeed in November...but I need your help... ..we've got to restore trust and confidence in government. The war we can do it is reaching across the aisle, Republican and Democrat together. I will never let you down. I will always put my country first."

Live Blogging A McCain Town Hall, Part II

ROCHESTER, CON'T.

Mainstay: McCain recognizes the One campaign and Divided We Fail. Mentions that wife Cindy is in African with One now... asks the crowd to applaud for One and DWF. McCain says he'll let both organizations have a 60 second commercial.

Talks about energy: "I have a plan to fix this energy crisis. We can do it. America is capable of doing great things. But we have to act and we have to act together." Gives his energy stump. "It's a national security issue and obviously it's an economic issue.....hurts the [poorest]..... so why not give 'em a little gas tax holiday, so they don't have to pay their gas taxes for a while." Talks about nuclear power. Talks about the local plant, Seabrook... "I'd like to point out to you that it is safe..it is clean.. it is part of our effort, it is integral to our effort..." Navy ships with nuclear power plants on board haven't had an accident in 60 years.

Mentions a "pro-American president of France," which gets applause.

Gets loud applause for mentioning "off-shore drilling." "If American can show ... that we have significant oil and gas reserves and we don't depend on foreign oil, it will have an effect on the price of oil. Sen. Obama does not want to store or reprocess spent nuclear fuel. Sen. Obama does not want to drill off-shore. Sen. Obama does not want to give a gas tax holiday...." Mocks Obama's "yes we can" presidential seal... says it should say "no we won't" instead.

McCain: "I promise you my dear friends I will not let you down."

Greg Muller (sp?) from Dover, NH, a disabled Iraq war veteran, asks about VA benefits... McCain thanks Muller for his service and crowd gives him standing ovation. McCain spies another veteran and asks him to stand. Ovation follows. McCain: "We need to concentrate our effort on..those injuries that are a direct result of combat...right now, there are people who now drive a long war and they stand in line to stand in line to get an appointment to get an appointment..." proposes a universal access card for veterans.... big standing ovation...

McCain tosses the microphone to a veteran who helps care for homeless veterans...... it drops to the floor... the veteran points out one of McCain's POW buddies to him... standing ovation.

Live Blogging A McCain Town Hall, Part I

ROCHESTER -- We're in the historic Rochester Opera House where a capacity crowd of 500 is waiting for a one-hour town hall meeting to begin. The campaign prefers to hold these events in the round, but the opera house stage won't bend that way, and so the audience is separated by a blue barrier from the candidate. There are nine television cameras set up on a platform and about 30 newspaper, online and periodical journalists tapping away on computers on the balcony. The audience is white; the average age cohort is "middle."

Bill Condon, a Democrat for McCain, introduces the candidate. "I've never voted for a Republican. I've never dreamt that I would." That changed a year ago when he fell in love with the candidate at a bar-b-q. "He tells people not what they want to hear, but what they need to hear."

I can see McCain peaking through the curtain.

Like the orchestra at the Oscars, the campaign's audio techs politely play Dr. Condon off the stage ... McCain's entrance music increases in volume... Condon inches off to the right and cuts off his introduction.

40 seconds of a standing ovation and applause as McCain comes out. He is wearing a jet black suit and a striped gray and blue tie.

Obligatory: "Coming back to New Hampshire is like coming home..." He acknowledges local office-holders and the Republican gubernatorial candidate.

A mainstay: he recognizes and thanks the veterans.

"I know that you know that there's been a lot of back and forth about this issue and ... i would remind you that.. well over a year ago when everyone declared my candidacy dead.. when I said that the strategy had failed and we had to do the surge.....and now, we are winning."

Mention of Gen. David Petraeus's name gets applause.

McCain: "If we had his way, we would have never have done the surge, we would have been defeated. He was wrong then, he is wrong now, and he still fails to acknowledge that the surge succeeded. Remarkable. Remarkable. He just received his first briefing from Gen. P, and he declared his policy before he left."

Says the troops with come home with "victory."

McCain: "Now he wants to reverse the gains he has made and set a date for withdrawal..."

Predicts a "stable and pro-American government in Iraq." "They have a long way to go and its very tough and long and hard, but we have seen the process of success and the enormous reduction in violence and sectarian violence..."

McCain: "I had the courage and judgment to say that i would rather win the war than [win] a political campaign. It seems to me that Sen. Obama would rather lose the war than win a political campaign.

McCain: "I hope that he will have the courage to reverse his position... I've requested to have town hall meetings with him.."

More Media Bashing From The McCain Campaign

ROCHESTER, NH -- "We no longer expect the media to do their jobs," one of McCain's top aides told me yesterday. "We're just going to have to do it for them."

Media-bashing is a time-honored tradition patented by Republicans in the 1970s as a key feature of grievance politics. So successful, in fact, that it's become a mainstay of the new liberal activism. Unlike other conservatives, until now, McCain hasn't had to worry about bypassing the media and hasn't been a media decredentialist. (Truth is, the media, like most other major American institutions, has been slowly losing influence since the 60s.) Today, sensing an opportunity to get Republicans on board, the campaign is sponsoring a contest. They want readers to choose the long song that best expresses the press's rapture for Obama.

Here's the leader

This is part-feint, part-passive-aggressive jab, part political tactic. Campaign officials sincerely believe that the media has completely abandoned its objectivity and collective responsibility. Not that they've given the media the benefit of the doubt: since the beginning of the campaign, McCain's team has sent out regular e-mails criticizing news coverage using all the familiar tropes.

The "I Can't Put My Finger On It" Problem For Obama

The woman's name is Maria VanderMolen. She is 86 years old, and she lives in Spring Lake, Michigan. She is "a lifelong Democrat." But she's undecided in the presidential race. Why?

"He's just come out of nowhere," she said. She worries, she said, "about the way things are coming out about his life. I haven't got one thing specific. I just don't know."

The political cognoscenti might call this the Hart Problem, after the Democratic pollster, Peter Hart, whose focus groups of Pennsylvania voters showed that many just didn't identify with Obama; they didn't know what to make of him; their life was not his life; they could not hang their experiences on any of his. Now -- race may certainly be a major reason for this lack of projective identification, particularly among older whites. But it is also true that Obama's life is a 21st century American life; one of different countries, an unusual name, two races, a meteoric rise, a life of the mind (and a talented, incredible gift of a mind) and devoted to the ideals of expression. Obama did not grow up in poverty, but he was, we are reminded, not at all rich and just comfortable enough. He worked hard and paid off his student loan debts. Those facts aren't enough. Ms. VanderMolen won't tell us what new and unsettling information she's learned about Obama's life. Again, maybe this is her way of admitting to a racial bias. But absent a way for her connect to Obama, it stands to reason that she will be more likely to believe just about anything.

The Atlantic Panel Survey

Thanks to those of you who have already signed up... although you're all men, and it would nice to have an equal number of women in the sample!

So here's my pitch again:

I’d like to ask my independent-minded readers to help with an easy experiment. Since I don’t have the tools to do fancy-schmancy graphs or flash-video animations, just plain text – words and ideas – will do.

I want to create an intelligence panel from those readers of my blog who haven’t made up their minds. I’ll focus group the panel at least twice a month, and I’ll summarize their answers on the blog.

The criteria is simple: I’m looking for anyone eligible to vote who hasn’t yet made up their mind and who wouldn’t mind answering questions every so often.

Please send me as much information about yourself as you’re comfortable with, but at a
minimum: your gender, age, location, occupation, party affiliation (if you have one) and your religion (if you have one.)

I won’t reveal your name – I promise. As in Judy Miller promise.

As members of the panel make up their minds, I’ll print their mini-essays on the subject.
The purpose, of course, is to give you and me a window into the minds of those politically engaged Americans who will decide the presidential race. It’s not scientific but it is valuable. If this gets off the ground, I guarantee that the McCain and Obama campaigns will follow its progress.

If you’d like to apply, please e-mail me at mambinder@theatlantic.com. My initial question: will Iraq matter to your vote, and why?

On McCain's VP Timing

Here are two more reasons why it's not likely John McCain will announce his vice presidential selection this week:

Mitt Romney, for one, is out of the country and has no plans to return until the end of the week.

So is Cindy McCain. (No, they're not together.)

Kind of hard to imagine a VP rollout without the spouse....

Obama Concedes That Surge Didn't Go As He Expected

Sen. Barack Obama said it was "fair" to notice that he did not anticipate that the surge of U.S. troops into Iraq would be coincident with the so-called Sunni Awakening and the decisions of Shia militias to reduce their footprints, the combination of which led to measurable declines in violence.

In an interview with ABC's Terry Moran, Obama said that he "did not anticipate, and I think that this is a fair characterization, the convergence of not only the surge but the Sunni awakening in which a whole host of Sunni tribal leaders decided that they had had enough with Al Qaeda, in the Shii’a community the militias standing down to some degrees. So what you had is a combination of political factors inside of Iraq that then came right at the same time as terrific work by our troops. Had those political factors not occurred, I think that my assessment would have been correct."

Moran noted that Obama had claimed that the surge "would not make a significant dent in the violence."

Responded Obama: "In the violence in Iraq overall, right. So the point that I was making at the time was that the political dynamic was the driving force between that sectarian violence. And we could try to keep a lid on it, but if these underlining dynamic continued to bubble up and explode the way they were, then we would be in a difficult situation. I am glad that in fact those political dynamic shifted at the same time that our troops did outstanding work."

"But," asked Moran,"if the country had pursued your policy of withdrawing in the face of this horrific violence, what do you think Iraq would look like now?"

Obama said it would be hard to speculate. "The Sunnis might have made the same decisions at that time. The Shii’as might have made some similar decisions based on political calculation. There was ethnic cleansing in Baghdad that actually took the violence level down," he said.

Obama also told Moran that there were circumstances under which he could revise his instruction to U.S. generals to begin withdrawing combat brigades at the pace of one-to-two per month.

"I've always reserved the right, uh, to say---let's say that ethnic, uh, ethnic fighting broke out once again---I've reserved the right to say---I don't--I'm not going to stand idly by if genocide is occurring. I'm not going to stand idly by if vital United States interests are at stake. Um, so in that sense yes, I retain the flexibility anyone who in the job of commander in chief is constantly reassessing facts, risks, and so forth."

Read the full interview here.

Novak's VP Rumint

ENPR Special: Sources say McCain Veep Pick to Come This Week 07/21/2008 Sources close to Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign are suggesting he will reveal the name of his vice presidential selection this week while Sen. Barack Obama is getting the headlines on his foreign trip. The name of McCain's running mate has not been disclosed, but Mitt Romney has led the speculation recently. (Developing)

Bob Novak has pretty good sources in McCain's world; he regularly talks to at least one senator who counts himself as a close McCain friend, and his memoir makes it clear that others in McCain's inner circle are regular Novak contacts.

That said, I'm being waved away from his reporting, although none of the five or six people who would know (at this point) are saying anything.

I don't think the McCain campaign will do much to tamp down on this speculation because it drives press attention to their campaign. But I don't expect McCain to announce his pick this week. He might have wanted to, at some point, and told one of his friends..

More feeding the beast: McCain plans to meet with LA Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) on Wednesday.

Announcing The Atlantic Panel Survey

MANCHESTER -- Here in New Hampshire, nearly a third of voters are undecided, truly undecided, and not even leaning in a particular direction. There’s plenty of debate within the political science community about how large the pool of absolute undecideds are; clearly, the number decreases as the election approaches.

I’d like to ask my independent-minded readers to help with an easy experiment. Since I don’t have the tools to do fancy-schmancy graphs or flash-video animations, just plain text – words and ideas – will do.

I want to create an intelligence panel from those readers of my blog who haven’t made up their minds. I’ll focus group the panel at least twice a month, and I’ll summarize their answers on the blog.

The criteria is simple: I’m looking for anyone eligible to vote who hasn’t yet made up their mind and who wouldn’t mind answering questions every so often.

Please send me as much information about yourself as you’re comfortable with, but at a
minimum: your gender, age, location, occupation, party affiliation (if you have one) and your religion (if you have one.)

I won’t reveal your name – I promise. As in Judy Miller promise.

As members of the panel make up their minds, I’ll print their mini-essays on the subject.
The purpose, of course, is to give you and me a window into the minds of those politically engaged Americans who will decide the presidential race. It’s not scientific but it is valuable. If this gets off the ground, I guarantee that the McCain and Obama campaigns will follow its progress.

If you’d like to apply, please e-mail me at mambinder@theatlantic.com. My initial question: will Iraq matter to your vote, and why?

Brought To You By The Ethanol Industry

Obama And McCain Divide And Conquer In New Hampshire

John McCain will be greeted in New Hampshire by a University of New Hampshire poll showing him three points behind Barack Obama.

McCain's election planners believe that New Hampshire is a must-win for them.

They hope to capitalize on residual tensions between Clinton Democrats and Obama Democrats, and, of course, on McCain's longstanding relationship with Republican-leaning independents in the state. The problem, of course, is that the state is simply becoming more Democratic, as Democrats and liberal independents move in from other parts of the New England. Bill Bishop's The Big Sort, a tome about partisan clustering, points to the rise in straight ticket voting in New Hampshire, which David Broder has noted was partly responsible for the Democrats taking back control of the state legislature. (And mechanically enabled straight ticket voting is banned!)

Partisan intensity among Democrats is hot, but the state's political culture has a funny way of confounding partisanship. Fully 21 percent of voters say that, although they're leaning toward someone, they still could change their minds, and 28 percent say they could still make up their minds.

There's a strong gender gap, with McCain running 20 points ahead of Obama among men and Obama running 20 points ahead of McCain among women. According to the UNH poll, McCain's electoral base here is among Republicans and conservatives and older votes, and voters with high-school terminal degrees. Obama's doing well among secular voters, liberals, Democrats, and younger voters and ideological independents. Geographically, McCain does better the closer one gets to Massachusetts, and Obama does very well on the eastern seaboard (The Seacoast.)

To win here, McCain will have to outperform his national average by at least several points.

On The Road This Week With McCain

I'll be blogging from the McCain roadshow this week. He stops in Maine and Buffalo, but I'll join up with the campaign late tonight in New Hampshire. A look at the planning schedule for the next few days show a campaign determined to tighten up the message. McCain holds one message event, a speech or town hall, per day. He spends the rest of his time giving television interviews. When the campaign wants to submit the candidate to the press, a pull-aside or session on the Straight Talk Express bus is scheduled. McCain might also squeeze in an "unplanned" photo opportunity -- an "off the record," for which the press is pooled. The upshot is that McCain has a very full day, and his traveling press corps gets to cover only part of it in person.

More observations once I get out there.

Both Were Right

A thought for the day: the political class has determined that Barack Obama was right about the Iraq war and that John McCain was right about the Surge. Does one right trump another? Or, as the war re-polarizes along party lines, do they cancel each other out?

And it's clear that the Iraqi government wants U.S. troops out more quickly than John McCain does, whilst U.S. generals want to send troops home more slowly than Obama does. Who trumps who?

Beware The Beijing Honeytrap

An aide to Gordon Brown falls for one of the oldest intelligence tricks in the book.

McCain Aide: Maliki Statement "Unartful"

That's how Randy Scheunemann, McCain's top foreign policy aide, characterized Maliki's Der Spiegel statement.

"We haven't had much contact with Iraq government." he said on a conference call this a.m., but McCain believes that their position is that withdrawing from Iraq "needs to be conditions based." Obama "cannot take a quote that has already been clarified and try to hang their Iraq policy on it," Scheunemann said.

"Obama's judgment in Iraq has been universally wrong," he argued.

And note well this phrase:

"Unconditional withdrawal based on arbitrary dates." This is how the McCain campaign will characterize Obama's position between now and the election.

Walkback Of the Walkback?

From the AP:

Iraq's government spokesman is hopeful that U.S. combat forces could be out of the country by 2010.

Ali al-Dabbagh made the comments following a meeting in Baghdad on Monday between Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama, who arrived in Iraq earlier in the day.

A New McCain Ad On Gas Prices

Interesting visuals.

Script For "Pump" (TV :30)

ANNCR: Gas prices - $4, $5, no end in sight, because some in Washington are still saying no to drilling in America.

No to independence from foreign oil.

Who can you thank for rising prices at the pump?

CHANT: Obama, Obama

ANNCR: One man knows we must now drill more in America and rescue our family budgets.

Don't hope for more energy, vote for it. McCain.

JOHN MCCAIN: I'm John McCain and I approve this message.

Maliki's Walkback

Here's how the New York Times's Arabic interpreters officially translated the SPIEGEL audio:

“Obama’s remarks that — if he takes office — in 16 months he would withdraw the forces, we think that this period could increase or decrease a little, but that it could be suitable to end the presence of the forces in Iraq.”

“Who wants to exit in a quicker way has a better assessment of the situation in Iraq.”

The way the government walked back the remarks is fairly surprising, if not entirely credible.

Mr. Maliki's interview prompted immediate concern from the Bush administration, which called to seek clarification from Mr. Maliki’s office, American officials said.

Scott M. Stanzel, a White House spokesman with President Bush at his ranch in Crawford, Tex., said that embassy officials explained to the Iraqis how the interview in Der Spiegel was being interpreted, given that it came just a day after the two governments announced an agreement over American troops.

“The Iraqis were not aware and wanted to correct it,” he said.

So Maliki, by most accounts an incredibly shrewd, smart, guy, doesn't... you know...read Western newspapers and has no sense of the American political climate -- or Europe's political climate at all?

Obama's New Plane

The aviation buffs found it at Midway... a Boeing 757-28A flying the flag of North American Airlines.

(Photo courtesy Bob Olewinski)

$336,742,305.24

That's how much Barack Obama has raised to date -- add $100 million if you want to include joint fundraising. In June, he took in nearly $52 million for the primary and about 2.4 million for the general -- and spent roughly what John McCain spent in June.

A Million For Obama In Berlin

From everyone's favorite newspaper these days:

The Siegessäule is located about a kilometer down the Strasse des 17. Juni from the Brandenburg Gate. His speech is set to begin at 7 p.m. and Berlin is expecting a massive number of Obama fans to show up -- between 10,000 and a million according to one city official quoted in the Berlin daily Tagesspiegel.

First Joint Appearance: Rick Warren To Moderate "Non-Debate"

Here it is, folks. Showtime. On 16 August, Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama "will end the primary season by making their first joint appearance of the 2008 campaign at Saddleback Church on Saturday, Aug. 16 at the Saddleback Civil Forum on Leadership and Compassion."

They'll be "back-to-back," not together. One after the other.

Says Pastor Rick Warren, in a press release:

"This is a critical time for our nation and the American people deserve to hear both candidates speak from the heart -- without interruption -- in a civil and thoughtful format absent the partisan 'gotcha' questions that typically produce heat instead of light.

"The primaries proved that Americans care deeply about the faith, values, character and leadership convictions of candidates as much as they do about the issues. While I know both men as friends and they recognize I will be frank, but fair, they also know I will be raising questions in these four areas beyond what political reporters typically ask. This includes pressing issues that are bridging divides in our nation, such as poverty, HIV/AIDS, climate and human rights."

[Reporters haven't asked about poverty and climate? And didn't Barack Obama speak to your church about HIV/AIDS two years ago, prompting plenty of questions?]

Warren confirmed that, at the candidates' request, this two-hour event from 5-7 p.m. (PDT) will be held in a non-debate format and open to all media. Both candidates also requested that questions be posed exclusively by Warren, instead of a panel or members of the audience. Each will converse separately with Warren for approximately one-hour, beginning with Sen. Obama as determined by a coin toss. This historic forum will be the only joint campaign event prior to each party's national convention.

Spiegel Stands By...

Here's what Speigel says about the interview with al-Maliki:

Obama is pleased, but McCain certainly is not. In an interview with SPIEGEL, Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki expressed support for Obama's troop withdrawal plans. Despite a half-hearted retraction, the comments have stirred up the US presidential campaign. SPIEGEL stands by its version of the conversation.

Scheunemann's Turn

Randy Scheunemann, McCain's foreign policy adviser, e-mailed a statement to the press:

"The difference between John McCain and Barack Obama is that Barack Obama advocates an unconditional withdrawal that ignores the facts on the ground and the advice of our top military commanders. John McCain believes withdrawal must be based on conditions on the ground. Prime Minister Maliki has repeatedly affirmed the same view, and did so again today. Timing is not as important as whether we leave with victory and honor, which is of no apparent concern to Barack Obama. The fundamental truth remains that Senator McCain was right about the surge and Senator Obama was wrong. We would not be in the position to discuss a responsible withdrawal today if Senator Obama's views had prevailed."

McCain: My Surge = Your Progress

Here's the McCain campaign's response to the news of the day. It's considerably more optimistic and hard-headed than the utterance from the anonymous Republican strategist i quoted below.

"Let’s be clear, the only reason that the conversation about reducing troop levels in Iraq is happening is because John McCain challenged the failed Rumsfield-strategy in Iraq and argued for the surge strategy that is responsible for the successes we’ve achieved and which Barack Obama opposed. Unlike Barack Obama, John McCain has never ignored the facts on the ground in Iraq, he’s never avoided the warzone before proposing new strategy, and he’s never voted against funding our troops in the field. If John McCain was following Barack Obama’s lead on foreign policy, the United States would have already withdrawn from Iraq in a humiliating defeat at the hands of al Qaeda.” ---Tucker Bounds, spokesman John McCain 2008.

The upshot here is that many Republican strategists think that Iraq remains an albatross around McCain's neck even though McCain has a very solid case to make about his political courage and his judgment. The Republican id is still smarting from the 2006 election smackdown, and the consequence of McCain's good judgment may well help his opponent, politically. Maliki has his elections to deal with., too, but knowing everything he knows and crediting the surge with security gains, he likes Obama's proposal -- or doesn't mind being associated with it.

McCain Campaign Responds To Al-Maliki

"His domestic politics require him to be for us getting out," said a senior McCain campaign official, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "The military says 'conditions based' and Maliki said 'conditions based' yesterday in the joint statement with Bush. Regardless, voters care about [the] military, not about Iraqi leaders."

An Obama official, also speaking on background, asks:

"So given that al-Maliki said today that it’s time for an official timetable and that Obama “is right when he talks about 16 months,” will McCain honor that commitment and call for withdrawal or change his position that we should leave Iraq if asked?"

And What Else Is Going On?

As Maliki endorses Obama's timetable, the United States government is negotiating (basically) with Iran.

Al-Maliki's Announcement: A Big Deal

This could be one of those unexpected events that forever changes the way the world perceives an issue. Iraq's Prime Minister agrees with Obama, and there's no wiggle room or fudge factor. This puts John McCain in an extremely precarious spot: what's left to argue? to argue against Maliki would be to predicate that Iraqi sovereignty at this point means nothing. Obviously, our national interests aren't equivalent to Iraq's, but... Malik isn't listening to the generals on the ground...but the "hasn't been to Iraq" line doesn't work here.

So how will the McCain campaign respond?

(Via e-mail, a prominent Republican strategist who occasionally provides advice to the McCain campaign said, simply, "We're fucked." No response yet from the McCain campaign, although here's what McCain said the last time Maliki mentioned withdrawal: "Since we are succeeding, then I am convinced, as I have said before, we can withdraw and withdraw with honor, not according to a set timetable. And I’m confident that is what Prime Minister Maliki is talking about, since he has told me that for many meetings we’'ve had."

Will Maliki retract his words?

Obama Camp Calls McCain A Follower On Foreign Policy

As John McCain and allies step up their criticism of Obama's judgment, the Obama campaign responds:

To: Interested Parties

From: The Obama Campaign

RE: Obama Leading on Foreign Policy, McCain Following

There are two problems with John McCain's political attacks on Barack Obama's foreign policy. First, on the biggest foreign policy questions of the last eight years, Barack Obama has made the right judgment and John McCain has sided with George Bush in making the wrong one. Second, the failure of the McCain-Bush foreign policy has forced John McCain to change his position, and to embrace the very same Obama approaches that he once attacked.

Continue reading "Obama Camp Calls McCain A Follower On Foreign Policy" »

PM Brown: No Timetable

British PM Gordon Brown in Baghdad:

“It is certainly our intention that we reduce our troops, but I am not going to set out an artificial timetable,''

Nice head fakes...

So reporters were to led to think that Obama would first travel to Iraq and then to Afghanistan.... not the other way 'round.

Al-Maliki Supports Obama's Timetable? Thanks, White House

At 12:56 pm, the White House Press Office blasted this e-mail to reporters, accidentally, it turns out:

-----Original Message-----

From: White House Press Releases [mailto:Press.Releases@WhiteHouse.Gov]

Sent: Sat 7/19/2008 12:56 PM

To:

Subject: Reuters - Iraqi PM backs Obama troop exit plan - magazine

Iraqi PM backs Obama troop exit plan - magazine

BERLIN, July 19 (Reuters) - Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki told a

German magazine he supported prospective U.S. Democratic presidential

candidate Barack Obama's proposal that U.S. troops should leave Iraq within

16 months.

In an interview with Der Spiegel released on Saturday, Maliki said he wanted

U.S. troops to withdraw from Iraq as soon as possible.

"U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we

think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility

of slight changes."

It is the first time he has backed the withdrawal timetable put forward by

Obama, who is visiting Afghanistan and us set to go to Iraq as part of a

tour of Europe and the Middle East.

Obama has called for a shift away from a "single-minded" focus on Iraq and

wants to pull out troops within 16 months, instead adding U.S. soldiers to

Afghanistan.

Asked if he supported Obama's ideas more than those of John McCain,

Republican presidential hopeful, Maliki said he did not want to recommend

who people should vote for.

"Whoever is thinking about the shorter term is closer to reality.

Artificially extending the stay of U.S. troops would cause problems."

Maliki, who is due to visit Germany this week, has suggested a timetable

should be set for a U.S. withdrawal but U.S. officials have been more

cautious, despite an improving security situation.

The White House said on Friday President George W. Bush and Maliki had

agreed that a security deal under negotiation should set a "time horizon"

for meeting "aspirational goals" for reducing U.S. forces in Iraq.

"The Americans have found it difficult to agree on a concrete timetable for

the exit because it seems like an admission of defeat to them. But it

isn't," Maliki told Der Spiegel.

Some five years after the U.S.-led invasion, there are still some 146,000

U.S. soldiers in Iraq.

Times Are A-Changing

In California, a narrow majority opposes a same-sex marriage ban.

Obama Campaign Response To McCain Ad

Here it is:

“While Barack Obama wants to change American foreign policy to wind down the war in Iraq and address the grave threat posed by a resurgent al Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan, John McCain offers this patently misleading negative ad. Given his calls for a civil campaign, it's disappointing that Senator McCain has slipped so easily into the same, tired campaign tactics that have become so familiar to the American people," said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.

And the campaign had NO comment about McCain's musings about where Obama might be and when he might be there.

Time Horizons

A heck of a way to bracket Obama's visit, uh, overseas, no?

First, Gen. Petraeus tells NBC's Andrea Mitchell that a withdrawal timeline ought to depend on "conditions," and specifically:

"...on missions set, depends on the enemy. The enemy does get a vote and is sometimes an independent variable. Lots of different factors I think that would be tied up in that. The dialogue on that and the amount of risk, because it eventually comes down to how much risk various options entail

That Petraeus granted an interview at this moment in time is not a coincidence.

Then, President Bush and Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki announce that they've agreed that "time horizons" are an appropriate way to begin to talk about withdrawing U.S. combat troops from Iraq. No such "horizons" have been set, and, of course, the administration is going out of its way to try and distinguish an horizon from a "timetable," but what we're really talking about here is a degree of flexibility and proximity. A horizon can be seen but it is often chimerical and it is a ways in the distance.

McCain tried to jump on the news proactively, citing "progress" as the reason for the announcement and projecting ahead to a time -- a horizon? -- when a "conditions-based withdrawal" is possible.

"When we withdraw, we will withdraw with honor and victory. An honorable and victorious withdrawal would not be possible if Senator Obama's views had prevailed. An artificial timetable based on political expediency would have led to disaster and could still turn success into defeat. If we had followed Senator Obama's policy, Iraq would have descended into chaos, American casualties would be far higher, and the region would be destabilized."

What's the difference between a time horizon -- which obviously involves the temporal dimension -- and a schedule? The degree of rigidity. But the directional push is clear: everyone is now talking about bringing troops home...Obama is most closely associated with the idea of bringing troops home... even as it may well be true that the reason why everyone's aboard the withdrawal wagon is because McCain championed the troop surge in the first place.

New McCain Ad Blisters Obama On Experience

The folks at CBS News pass this along (thanks Steve Chaggaris)...

"Announcer: Barack Obama never held a single Senate hearing on Afghanistan. He hasn't been to Iraq in years. He voted against funding our troops. Positions that helped him win his nomination. Now Obama is changing, to help himself become president. John McCain has always supported our troops. And the surge that's working. McCain: Country first."

This is McCain's toughest ad yet....and note the unsubtle use of Obama's trademarked azure blue...

Continue reading "New McCain Ad Blisters Obama On Experience" »

McCain Campaign's Parting Gift To Obama Traveling Press Corps

It's a 17-page briefing book on Obama's Iraq and Afghanistan policy complete with Obama's one-event-only presidential seal. Download it here.

Obama's Rashomonic Trip

Barack Obama's mid-summer overseas trip might remind you of the a runner who begins to train for a marathon a few days before the starting gun. Or it might be the start of a new golden age of American diplomacy, where an American (would-be) president is embraced by foreign leaders and peoples. Or it might be a political trip by a political campaign for a political purpose and thus deserving of the intense scrutiny it will get.

Reporters know more about Obama's itinerary than is safe to say; we know who he's meeting with -- Olmert, Abas, Abdullah, Sarkozy, Merkel and Brown -- and we know when, but the campaign has asked us to keep the times and dates a secret for security reasons, and we've collectively obliged.

I received a phone call yesterday from a reporter at the Scotsman who wanted to know why the Obama campaign was obsessed with Germany and wanted Obama's signature event to take place at the Brandenburg Gate. Shades of a Franco-German axis among Obama's advisers? Not really, I said. It's more that Germany's press had the good fortune to break the story of Obama's expected itinerary and the resulting controversy that developed. (Obama will speak elsewhere in Berlin.) No, there will be plenty of attention devoted to the Anglo-American friendship. I doubt Obama will say much about Europe, per se.

Here's what the Obama campaign wants to get out of the trip:

# Lots of good images; Obama meeting with commanders; Obama meeting with different types of people; crowds spontaneously forming outside Obama events -- these all look presidential and serious and convey gravity.

# A foothold toward the goal of wrestling the Iraq issue back from John McCain. Obama's identity inseparable from his 2002 judgment on Iraq, and yet half the country agrees with John McCain.

# By osmosis, the idea, planted in the heads of independent voters, that Obama is a president who will make you feel proud to be an American again; attention Obama is sure to receive will be a reproach to Bush and McCain... a president, an American, who can be a model for the world.

And here's what Obamaskeptics will be looking for:

Krauthammerian signs of hubris and messianic fervor. (Most of Obama's events will be small and pooled press; the Obama campaign is aware of the need for their guy to seem, at once, humble and humbled.)

Gaffes or opportunities to exploit his relative lack of experience.

And here's what political analysts will be looking for:

# Does this trip help Obama connect to common concerns? His affluent, educated audience will applaud his diplomatic endeavor and his efforts to restore America's image in the world. In 2004, that message would be alienating to other voters; in 2008, it may well help him. What do voters think?

# How Obama handles the pressure and scrutiny of the world stage.

# Obviously, what he says about Iraq and what leaders of other countries say to him about Iraq and the Middle East.

# How the Obama campaign handles efforts by the White House and the McCain campaign to undercut him.

A Little Bit About Mitt

In Detroit today, according to a pool report, here's what Sen. John McCain had to say about Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney:

"[I]n case you’ve been missing it, Mitt has been doing such a great job lately on my behalf, I said only half in jest, he’s doing a better job for me than he did for himself. And in case you missed it, as short a time ago as this morning, Mitt has been on the shows, not only defending, but standing up for the things that we believe in, are important to the future of the country. And I think you may know that Cindy and I and Mitt and Ann had the chance to spend some time together. And I knew Mitt, and I knew what an outstanding individual he is and what a wonderful family person, but I hadn’t had the chance to get to know Ann, who we all know is battling a disease and she is a woman of courage and beauty and grace. Scott [Romney,I thank you for being here and I thank you for the entire Romney family."

Obama's Foreign Policy Voice

Turns out there are 301...

Not mentioned in this morning's New York Times piece on Barack Obama's foreign policy team is Ben Rhodes.

Rhodes, 30, is Obama's principle foreign policy speechwriter. He does a large share of the staff work and writes Obama's foreign policy talking points, turning ideas into words. Rhodes isn't simply a background ghostwriter; Obama calls him an "adviser" -- a distinct title from "writer" -- and lets him speak directly on foreign policy matters. Rhodes and foreign policy chief Denis McDonough worked with Obama to write a now-famous blog post justifying his vote for the FISA compromise.

Rhodes was an author of the 9/11 commission report and was a special assistant to Lee Hamilton, one of the 9/11 Commission co-chairs, at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. He is a contributor to the Partnership for Secure America. He also worked on the Iraq Study Group, leading the New York Sun to call him a "wunderkind."

HRC Campaign Aides Buy 2012 Website

A company associated with Hillary Clinton's top presidential campaign advance staff has purchased a website domain that hints of a 2012 presidential bid for the vanquished senator from New York.

HRC2012.com was bought by the Markham Group on June 8, according to whois.com

Greg Hale of the Markham Group served as a key advance aide to Sen. Clinton, organizing political events for the campaign. The Markham website calls him the "lead consultant for advance and visual messaging." Partners Paul Neaville and Robert McClarty (the son of former White House chief of staff Thomas "Mack" McClarty) also worked on Clinton's advance team. According to whois.com, the site was registered by Todd Wilder, a longtime Democratic operative from Florida.

A picture of Clinton pops up when the company's website is called up.

Mo Elleithee, a Clinton spokesman, said that Clinton officially associates herself with three websites: hillpac.com, for her political action committee, hillaryclinton.com, for her presidential campaign and now her '12 Senate re-election campaign, and a separate site dedicated to retirin