Marc Ambinder: August 2008 Archives

The Best Gustav Coverage Online

is here, at Brendan Loy's WeatherNerd site.

His round-up suggests that most experts think that the worst of the storm will miss New Orleans. If the levees hold....

Wolfson, Hesitant To The End, Finally Saw Some Of The Magic

Watch for an op-ed in tomorrow's Washington Post by former Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson, one of Clinton's still-stalwart defenders. Last Thursday, he paid attention, along with 32 million other Americans, and saw something he hadn't seen before.

The key line:

Barack Obama pulled it off. For 18 months, I listened to Obama on television, sometimes intently, often just barely - background noise to a running series of conference calls and meetings and e-mails. In person, my attention undivided, I saw something of what so many others had seen for so long. Progress in America is never cheap, and even today history exacts a price for Obama's victory - the dreams of electing the first female president, the dreams of so many who rushed toward Hillary Clinton on rope lines across America and refused to give up her hand and their hopes. Today these dreams are giving way to another kind of progress. For me, the presidential campaign began in a crowded Iowa hall, where I saw a man my age lift up a daughter around my daughter's age and tell her that one day she could be president. Last week things came nearly full circle, when I saw another man my age lift up another child and say the very same thing.

There's A Lawyer Vet, Then There's A Political Vet

Let's accept that AB Culvahouse, John McCain's veepstakes vetter, did a careful legal vet of every jot, tittle and parking ticket of Sarah Palin's. Her health, her family, her life.

A political vet -- one done by political researchers -- is entirely separate and equally as important. Political attacks often hurt as much, if not more than, long-ago put-to-bed legal troubles.

And it looks as if one major part of the political vet -- the hometown newspaper archive search -- did not take place.

Update:

Reader P writes:

The story you quoted from Huffington Post in your latest post is inaccurate. The basis for the claim is that the paper doesn't have an online archive. That's demonstrably false, with archives stretching back to the 90's through Advanced Search.

Reader J writes:

Your Reader P is the one who has it wrong in the 31 Aug 2008 08:41 pm post titled "There's A Lawyer Vet, Then There's A Political Vet." Those online archive for the Valley Frontiersman are extremely incomplete and even what they do have only goes back to 1998, from which they have a single article available (there's only 3 articles available for all of 2000 that mention Palin, for that matter). However, Palin became mayor in 1996 and served on the city council from 1992 to 1996. That's especially important because a lot of the potentially interesting things happened immediately or soon after she assumed office as mayor (ie, demanding the resignation of various city officials, etc). I don't see how there's any way Google can make up for an actual trip to the archives here.

Palin Drops HRC From Speech

After her mention of Sen. Hillary Clinton drew boos yesterday in Pennsylvania, Gov. Sarah Palin dropped Clinton's name from her remarks today in Missouri....

Mitt Romney Keeps His Republican Hat On

Introducing John McCain in Missouri just how:

Thank you, thank you. You know they said, they said they did not think Missourians would turn out on a Sunday afternoon when its as hot as this, but you sure did. People all over the country, people all over the country are watching Missouri and understanding why it is you came out and it's because this is a critical year and a critical time. And you want to make sure our next president is someone who when talk about protecting our nation and doesn't just a let's sit down with the world's worst actors Ahmadinejad and the Castro brothers. But instead says, let's sit down with the best democracies in the world and form a league of democracies. Let's protect America. You want to make sure the people of America understand that when it comes to strengthening our economy we're not in favor of raising taxes and cutting off trade and drawing a line and saying no nuclear, no coal, and no more drilling. Instead, you want a president who will say I'll get this economy going with low taxes, and more trade for our goods, and yes, we will drill for more oil. We want a president who combines with a great maverick, two mavericks come together on a team to take on the tough challenges America faces. Washington is broken, and these two are going to fix it. Now I just got back from the Olympics over in Beijing, and I was over there watching an event and some people around the stadium were noticing me and taking my picture. These were Americans and some Chinese I said to my wife, you better be careful how you look because they are taking our picture. She pointed behind me, there was Kobe Bryant sitting behind us. I feel the same way right now. You don't want to listen to me. Let's listen to the next president and vice-president of the United States, John McCain and Sarah Palin.

Josh Green Amid The Stunned Republicans Of Minnesota

MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL--Seems like ages ago now, but before Hurricane Gustav hit the Doppler radar screen, Hurricane Palin swept through first. Here at the Republican National Convention, Palin still edges out Gustav as the main topic of intrigue--at least among the dwindling number of delegates and operatives who showed up--but only narrowly, and talk of each is geared mainly toward damage assessments.

An afternoon spent mingling with political types at the high-powered Atlantic/General Motors brunch at the Chambers Hotel (where a $4 million Damien Hirst calf's head-in-formaldehyde is displayed behind the check-in desk, because--well, Jesus, who knows why? It's bizarre.) yields the following insights: Most Republicans have never met Sarah Palin and are processing the news of her selection as VP with the stunned-but-well-meaning emotions you might feel toward an acquaintance who just came out of the closet. Those given to caution when discussing such things at a brunch with journalists put a hopeful, might-be-a-stroke-of-genius spin on their astonishment. Those less inhibited--who are also better people--generally see the pick as irresponsible and politically motivated (and not in a good way). No one believes Palin was fully vetted. And no one has any idea how this will play out.

The best analogy I heard came from a bright young Republican operative, who--borrowing from the sports world, as the secret Republican-operative rulebook stipulates one must--likened the Palin pick to an NFL team using the top pick in the draft to select an unheralded, but promising, player from a small college. Looks great on paper: you just hope and pray they can adjust to the speed of the professional game. It's a useful analogy because it gives a good sense of the odds--for every Phil Simms (quick: name his alma mater*) there have been countless small-college players who put up great stats but never caught on in the pros.--JOSHUA GREEN

*Morehead State University

The Politics Of Putting Aside Politics

McCain, speaking to some delegations tonight via satellite:

So ahead of time I wanna thank all of my fellow Republicans as we take off our Republican hats and put on our American hats and we say "America, we're with you. America, we're going to care for these people in their time of need" and we're gonna display it in every possible way as Americans always have and Americans always will.

Everyone's first thoughts are with those who are evacuating, and the Democrats would probably have done much the same thing, but it would be a little myopic to lose sight of the fact that McCain and the Republicans have ALL the incentive in the world to do exactly what they are doing. McCain says that he's putting people before politics. In this case, what is the most politically astute is also, it turns out, what helps the most people. The politics of putting aside politics ... is still politics.

Here's The RNC Release Announcing All The Gustav-Related Changes

McCain 2008 and 2008 Republican National Convention Announce Changes to
Convention Program and Hurricane Response Efforts
Monday's Convention Program Will Only Include Required Proceedings, McCain Campaign Takes Steps to Aid Affected Delegations

Continued after the jump.

Continue reading "Here's The RNC Release Announcing All The Gustav-Related Changes" »

McCain On The Convention, Lieberman

Here's an except from an interview Sen. John McCain have to to NBC News's Brian Williams today:

WILLIAMS:       So you're going to convert the free media time and attention that this four day gathering will have and-- and try to steer that into the cause?

MCCAIN: Certainly for tomorrow night. Certainly for tomorrow night. And then I think I'm-- after the hurricane passes we'll see what-- what the situation is. If it just requires still America's effort devoted in that direction of helping the recovery, then that's what we'll do. If it's, I pray God, not as bad as we think and we can go on with the business of the convention we'll go on. But frankly-- I think that's gonna be difficult. But I think we can. But Monday night, certainly it's-- it's all about America.

WILLIAMS:       I've heard a possibility you'll deliver your acceptance speech by satellite from the region depending on how bad it is and how quickly it clears?

MCCAIN: Yeah, we're jamming, you know, all possibilities and all scenarios. I hope that by that time we will have had significant recovery efforts-- in movement and-- but I-- we'll have to just really judge it day by day. But for now, everything political on hold.

WILLIAMS:       It's been reported in today's papers that you-- without diminishing Governor Palin, you really wanted your friend Joe Lieberman. And some conservative state chairs-- threatened a floor fight over that.

MCCAIN: have no knowledge of that. Look, the close relationship I have with my beloved friend Joe Lieberman, I'll tell you the last words he said to me before I made the selection. He said, "John, I want you to do what's best for this country. And I'll be at your side." And I'm-- I was very touched by that. And so, it had everything to do with my judgment about what we can do to change things in Washington. And a person with a record of accomplishment and a true reformer. And I love Joe Lieberman. I have the greatest respect and affection for the others that we considered-- but-- he was the first to call me and say, "Great choice".

Does McCain Need A Convention? Or Just a convention?

Well, obviously, he needs to be nominated, which requires a meeting of the Republican National Committee at a lower c-convention. That will happen Thursday.

If indications are correct, the Palin pick seems to have raised the enthusiasm level of Republicans significantly, although we're assuming this from the behavior of Republican activists. It has forced the news media to reframe the race, it has forced Barack Obama out of the headlines, it has begun to redefine who McCain really is.

Does he even need a convention at this point? Sure, it would be nice -- four days to better introduce Palin and to savage Barack Obama, to help Americans get over the warmer feelings they have for the Democratic candidate.

But if you take as the goal of McCain's convention the need to re-energize the party's base, then no, McCain doesn't really need one. His pick did that. And with the Republicans intent on turning the convention period into a massive, nationwide call to action, he'll stay in the headlines, and the party's brand will won't be, at the very least, further tarnished.

It's perhaps impolitic to say this, but message-wise, McCain could do a lot worse than to cancel corporate fundraisers, parties and delegate-fests and urge the country to suspend politics and open their wallets for victims of Gustav. And he has, thanks to President Bush, the entire federal government backing him up here.

McCain doesn't really need a Convention....

A Convention Suddenly Turns Into Something Very Different

President Bush and Vice President Cheney will not speak. The Louisiana delegation is being flown home. Fundraisers are being turned into charity events. Network anchors are flying South. All Monday speeches have been canceled, leaving only formal Republican National Committee business on the program. John McCain has ordered substantial changes to the program for the rest of the week. The primetime TV hours will include coverage of both the RNC and the hurricane.

Issues And Answers: Palin Pick Perfect For Purple Polities?

Did the Palin pick surprise Barack Obama's campaign?

Yes. They believed the media for one in their lives and it turned out to be a mistake. Though the Democratic National Committee had a research folder prepared for Palin, the VP rapid response team read up on Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and Joe Biden all week. The Obama campaign was caught by surprise and scrambled to figure out the best way to respond. By the end of Friday, they seemed to have settled on a two-pronged response: Obama, Biden and the campaign would be respectful and Democratic allies would aggressively peddle research to the media, simultaneously trying to convey the impression that they respect the historic nature of the pick while doing their best to discredit Palin.

Why did he pick her, really?

It was, a spokesman said, a very personal pick, a pick from the heart and not necessarily the brain. What I gather most impressed McCain about her was her quick wit, her life story, her willingness to take on corrupt Republicans in Alaska, and the frank political calculation that independent women might be forced to take a real second look at McCain?

Is Palin ready?

For the campaign trail? Maybe. Her first speech sounded like one of those "real people" that campaign advance teams find to introduce candidates at major rallies. Her interviews have been crisp. The glow of the new is preventing any real scrutiny right now.

To be president? The argument that she is "more qualified than Obama" is not the same thing as an argument that she is ready to be president. Republicans had to reach, pointing out her fishing dispute negotiations with Canada and her service as the head of the Alaska National Guard. Hey, Howard Dean was head of the Vermont National Guard, come to think of it.

She's just had a baby. Can she be a full-time campaigner?

Tough question. The McCain campaign would say "Would you ask that question if she were a man?" And I'd say, "you answer my question first, and then I'll answer yours." And the McCain campaign would say: "It's a sexist question." And I'd say: "You're answering the argument, not the question. " And they'd say: "You're just against her because she an evangelical Christian and you secular media types can't stand a feminist who isn't a liberal." And I'd say: "What were we talking about again?"

Forget about the pieties. It's a legit question, one that'll be on the minds of many mothers and fathers who struggle to balance work and family life, and given the rigors of a presidential campaign and the extreme rigors of being the vice president, it's one that Palin herself will probably find a way to answer down the line.

Continue reading "Issues And Answers: Palin Pick Perfect For Purple Polities?" »

The Tickets: Iconography Comparison

Read these images... and comment.

Here's How Democrats Are Trying To Frame The Palin Pick

Palin: "I'm just an average hockey mom."

The Democratic response: "Hey think people want an average hockey mom from Alaska taking over in the event of John McCain's death?"

The Obama Campaign Thinks We're Dummies

The headline from a story the campaign just sent around:

First Two National Polls Find Palin Gains LESS Support from Women

Suddenly the Obama campaign finds solace in A SMALL ONE NIGHT TRACKING SAMPLE from Gallup and an IVR poll they usually dismiss....conducted over a weekend?

Come on, guys...

Thoughts On An Epic Speech

Putting aside the speech and its politics, last evening was very moving for everyone there, myself included. It was a privilege to have witnessed it The staging was spectacular. Hard to be immune to an experience of an historical first and the emotions 85,000 peers. I write this because, as I read some of the news coverage, the tone borders on rapturous, and I wonder if reporters who attended were unduly influenced by the surroundings. It was not the best speech Obama's ever given, but probably his most urgent; it checked all the boxes, some of which had been empty for a while. It was a stump speech...but different from his regular stump speech in structure and even substance. A remarkably non-defensive speech for a Democratic presidential candidate. He's not going to be Dukakis or Kerry.... He didn't talk much about his biography. The film and the week did that. He skipped over almost everything but his Iraq vote. A lot of symbolic talk from Obama and Biden and others about Obama's life fulfilling America's promise. For all the talk about how "this" is about "you," it was really about what Obama represents...not what he's done...but what he represents. If the first three days of the convention were too inwardly focused, too much about HRC v. BHO, the last day was about all Obama v. McCain, with Obama assuming ownership of parts of the Clinton legacy. And the McCain campaign response was weird, suggesting to me that they really had no idea what they had just seen. He went after McCain's temperament. Crossed that Rubicon. I do not think that the McCain campaign anticipated that Obama will do so frontally. Clearly, the Obama campaign wants to frame the national security debate as one where judgment is prior to experience, where wisdom is superior to strength. Importantly, Dems of all stripes seemed to love the speech.

Continue reading "Thoughts On An Epic Speech" »

The Daily Bric-A-Brac: Sarah!

So Bill Burton is spending a day under the bus... although I gather that, down the road, the campaign will be grateful for its "hair-trigger" reaction.

Barack Obama is a bigger cultural phenomenon than American Idol, the Beijing Olympics, and the Oscars.

McCain first met Palin in February of 2008, according to an official tick-tock e-mailed to reporters. I've posted it after the jump.

Dan Gerstein, a former adviser to Sen. Joe Lieberman, in the New York Daily News:

"In picking an unknown, untested, half-a-term woman governor from Alaska to be his running mate, John McCain is following in a long line of reckless men who have rolled the dice for a beauty queen. Except in this case, McCain is taking one of the biggest, boldest gambles in modern American political history."

Continue reading "The Daily Bric-A-Brac: Sarah!" »

GOP Strategists Mixed Reviews

I cannot overestimate the degree to which Republican political strategists were stunned by the pick.

A few I spoke with or e-mailed were optimistic, using phrases like "brilliant" and "game-changing." One GOP strategist who has worked with Palin says she's coated with Teflon -- "attack at your peril." She "renews McCain's maverick credentials." One person close to Romney said she "looks like a real reformer. She's done what Obama's talked about."

A few are cautiously optimistic that it'll turn out OK, but most of the strategists and consultants I've spoken to, e-mailed with, or read/watched are struggling with it. They expect her to have a good week... and then to crash and burn when she hits the campaign trail as scrutiny catches up with her.

Some of these strategists are close to those Republicans who were vetted but not picked, but many of them aren't. "It's like playing poker blind," one strategist said. Another e-mailed: "Obama's lack of readiness was THE only way to win." When these Republicans ask the McCain campaign for guidance, all they hear back is: "She's more experienced than Obama is."

Conservative activists, almost to the man and woman, LOVE the pick.

BTW: The moose stew stuff and her childrens' names may be geographically and culturally appropriate, but pardon me if I surmise that some folks in the Pennsylvania T aren't going to be entranced. (They would think I was weird too, but I'm not running for VP.)

Your Thoughts On The Palin Pick

Open thread.

McCain And Women

Undecided women and disaffected Clinton supporters will... ( polls)

Dems: McCain's Age Is "Fair Game"

I get the sense that John McCain' age is now fair game for Democrats. Democrats feel that McCain's Palin pick has given them the green light to use phrases like "a heartbeat away" in their press releases and reactions.

McCain's proximity to death and her proximity to him justify the attention that will be drawn to McCain's age, in this view.

Watch the number of press releases that mention McCain's birthday and/or contain "heartbeat"-type phrases in them.

What The Campaign Giveth With One Hand, The Candidates Take Away

Take two: a much more respectful, classy statement from Chicago, this time in the names of Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

"We send our congratulations to Governor Sarah Palin and her family on her designation as the republican nominee for Vice President. It is yet another encouraging sign that old barriers are falling in our politics. While we obviously have differences over how best to lead this country forward Governor Palin is an admirable person and will add a compelling new voice to this campaign,

A Fundamental Question

is whether undecided women, weakly partisan Democrats, independent suburban women, women between the ages of 30 and 50, will now take a hard second look at John McCain because of his choice of Sarah Palin.

I think they will. A second look,... doesn't mean they'll vote for him. But he's earned himself a second look. Identity politics works that way.

The Obama campaign will try to find a way to connect with these women. McCain's national security argument didn't drive them to Obama, and Obama's "she's not ready" argument won't drive them away from McCain. Equal pay, abortion rights, gay rights, Palin's reputed temper, the environment... there's a grab bag of issues to choose from, but they need an argument, not an issue.

Wolfson: Palin Pick Makes One Wonder Why Obama Didn't Pick HRC

The former Clinton communications director writes: "...you are going to have a lot of women voters wondering why Senator Obama didn't tap Senator Clinton as his running mate."

Sarah Palin's Introduced

She is a very effective stump speaker, spunky and upbeat, and her first try at a persuasive argument on John McCain's behalf succeeded. She looks and sounds very different than he does. That's a plus. On the other hand, she talked about change, not experience. And we live, as John McCain reminds us, in a time of war.

Read the McCain and Palin speeches after the jump.

Continue reading "Sarah Palin's Introduced" »

Obama Campaign Reactions: Inexperience A "Heartbeat Away"

From Obama spokesman Bill Burton:

"Today, John McCain put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency. Governor Palin shares John McCain's commitment to overturning Roe v. Wade, the agenda of Big Oil and continuing George Bush's failed economic policies -- that's not the change we need, it's just more of the same," said Bill Burton, Obama Campaign Spokesman.

Palin Profile

Here's a comprehensive Palin profile courtesy of the Almanac of American Politics.

Hear Sarah Palin Talk About Windfall Profits Tax And ANWR

Official Statement From McCain

U.S. Senator John McCain today announced that he has selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his running mate and to serve as his vice president.

Governor Palin is a tough executive who has demonstrated during her time in office that she is ready to be president. She has brought Republicans and Democrats together within her Administration and has a record of delivering on the change and reform that we need in Washington.
Governor Palin has challenged the influence of the big oil companies while fighting for the development of new energy resources. She leads a state that matters to every one of us -- Alaska has significant energy resources and she has been a leader in the fight to make America energy independent.
In Alaska, Governor Palin challenged a corrupt system and passed a landmark ethics reform bill. She has actually used her veto and cut budgetary spending. She put a stop to the "bridge to nowhere" that would have cost taxpayers $400 million dollars.
As the head of Alaska's National Guard and as the mother of a soldier herself, Governor Palin understands what it takes to lead our nation and she understands the importance of supporting our troops.
Governor Palin has the record of reform and bipartisanship that others can only speak of. Her experience in shaking up the status quo is exactly what is needed in Washington today.

Palin's Foreign Policy Experience

A reader:

I thought you might like to know that under the heading of "Sarah Palin on Foreign Policy" at the On The Issue site for her, this is what's listed:

"No issue stance yet recorded by OnTheIssues.org."

"Not Ready '08", eh?

Palin's Facebook Imagery

Did Palin Support A Windfall Profits Tax?

From the Seattle Times:

Republicans in Congress this June united to defeat a proposed windfall tax on oil companies, deriding it as a bad idea that would discourage investment in U.S. oil exploration.
Things worked out far differently in the GOP stronghold of Alaska, a state whose economic fate is closely tied to the oil industry.
Over the opposition of oil companies, Republican Gov. Sarah Palin and Alaska's Legislature last year approved a major increase in taxes on the oil industry -- a step that has generated stunning new wealth for the state as oil prices soared.

McCain Aide On Palin Pick

From a senior adviser:

A maverick with a record of reform picks a maverick with a record of reform. John McCain puts Washington on notice that there is a shake up coming."

Palin, Pro And Con

Pro:

A huge-attention-getting pick.

Talk about McCain the fighter pilot... McCain, whose hero is Teddy Roosevelt

The cable press is talking about the VP choice, not Obama's piece.

She's charismatic.

The potential appeal for women. (Although, in 1984 Reagan won 54% of the vote in Ferraro on the ticket. Identity voting has no history on the presidential race.)

She has some reformist creds, taking on her own party...

She's blunt and outspoken.

Joe Biden might want to modulate his tone against a woman.

Her husband works with his hands and races in snow.

Rush Limbaugh likes her.

She's not from Washington.

Con:

After spending six months trying to discredit Barack Obama's readiness to be commander in chief, McCain has chosen someone with even less experience. (She was a mayor of Wasila Alaska, which is smaller than Obama's state senate district.)

Palin has not been exposed to the rigors of national politics

Palin does not know McCain well.

She will be forced to bone up on everything and forced to debate Joe Biden.

The accusations that McCain chose her because she's a woman.

An ongoing ethics investigation (although she was punishing someone accused of domestic violence.)

Disagreements with McCain on some issues, including gay rights. (She opposes same-sex marriage too, though.)

Note To McCain VP Staff: Delete This

ad where Ted Stevens endorses Gov. Palin.

The Palin File, In Brief

44 years old. .... Five children. .... Dynamic personality. .... Elected in 2006 as a reformer. Opposed Don Young's re-election bid. ..... Anti-same sex marriage but supports other gay rights. .... She's a lifelong member of the National Rifle Association. .... Pro life.. Signed into law a very aggressive ethics reform package. ...... Good symbolism: she sold the former governor's state jet right after entering office. She's at the forefront of the oil drilling debate...very popular among all Alaskans. ......She faces a state probe into whether she tried to get a former brother in law fired from his law enforcement job.. .... Born in Idaho...grew up in Alaska... It would be hard for Sen. Joe Biden to bully her in a debate. ....

She's very unknown (which means that the curiosity quotient will be huge) and has scant national security experience. ... But Obama can't really make that argument, can he? (Maybe third party groups can...)

CBS: Palin's Parents Told To Wait By Radio...

CBS News' Ryan Corsaro reports that Gov. Sarah Palin's parents were told to expect "exciting news" if they listened to their radio in the morning.... link coming soon...

A Second Plane -- Even More Interesting Than The First

Anchorage to Dayton VIA ... Flagstaff, AZ.

The plane is owned by a McCain donor, Lacy Clay.

Romney's Not In Dayton

Two sources say Gov. Mitt Romney will be in Boston, not Dayton, today.

Hazelbaker: McCain Will Choose From The Heart

Here's a rush transcript of what McCain communications chief Jill Hazelbaker told the Early Show's Maggie Rodriguez:

Ms. HAZELBAKER: Well, I know that John McCain is going to make the choice from his heart. He's going to choose someone who can be a partner in governing. He's going to choose someone who brings character and principle to the table and who shares his priorities and I'm confident that he's going to make a great pick.

Pawlenty Won't Be In Dayton

Just now, he spoke to CBS affiliate WCCO in Minneapolis and said that he would be picking up his regular schedule today and that it would be safe to assume he wasn't the pick.....

Developing... (nod to Jonathan Martin)

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty told WCCO Radio Friday morning that he was not going to Ohio today. The governor told WCCO Radio's Eric Eskola that he will be at the Minnesota State Fair Friday, doing his radio show. Speculation had been rampant that Pawlenty would be named John McCain's running mate at a rally in Ohio Friday. "I'm not going to be there. I plan to be at the state fair. You can draw your conclusion from that," Pawlenty said.

Fun With FlightAware, McCain Edition

Thanks to the readers who pointed me to the journey of a sturdy Gulfstream 5 with the tale number of N22GY. Anchorage, Alaska to Hook Municipal Field in Ohio. Nearby Dayton. 30 miles away. And the plane was in Flagstaff, AZ recently.

And where was the plane registered? To an entity called Gypsy Two LLC. It shares an address with a tax exempt organization called the Dean Weidner foundation. Dean Weidner is a Republican donor.. and a guy named William Weidner, the CEO of Las Vegas Sands corp, is a McCain bundler.

Mean something? I don't know.

Romney Expected To Appear In Dayton Tomorrow

So -- two senior McCain campaign officials confirm that John McCain will appear with his vice presidential pick in Dayton, Ohio tomorrow at noon ET.

And Gov. Mitt Romney expects to be in Dayton, Ohio tomorrow, having been asked there by the McCain campaign, a reliable source close to Romney says. (Another source says Romney will be in Boston.)

Gov. Tim Pawlenty is currently at the governors' mansion in Minneapolis. There is no guidance about his schedule.

We don't know if all the VP hopefuls have been summoned to Dayton; we don't know if some have. (MIke Huckabee won;'t be going.)

It would be weird, wouldn't it, to force the losers in this contest to appear onstage with the winners mere hours after they got the news.....

I'm NOT saying that Romney will be the pick. We may be missing an entirely different side of the story.

On the field....live Twittering....Obama's speech......McCain's VP pick.....the sights....the sounds...the drama...

Live From Invesco Field

More tweets here.

South Carolina GOP Brings Up McCain's "Torture" To Rebut Many Homes Charge

It'll run on cable in Minneapolis-St. Paul, which means that it's designed to influence the media (and probably to earn SC GOP chair Katon Dawson some props from RNC members ... he's interested in the RNC chairman's most.) The ad points out that McCain once lived in a box and was tortured.

The Obama "Surprise"

Last night, after being officially nominated, Obama took the stage in a surprise piece of political theater that yielded benefits that Obama supporters are now beginning to appreciate. The practical effect was, in this morning's newspapers (both online and offline) there were impeccable photos of Barack Obama and Joe Biden beneath a headlines like "Obama Nominated To Lead Democratic Party."

So this morning, everyone sees the photos and the headlines and thinks, aw shoot, I missed Obama's speech last night. And they read the article. And they realize that nope, the speech is tonight. And they all tune in.

A Post On Diversions That Chuck Todd Will Appreciate

A reader writes:

Marc - remember back to the 2007 World Series.

It was the final innings of game 4, with the Red Sox about to close it out. It was at that moment that Scott Boras, baseball's uber-agent, leaked to Fox that his client, Alex Rodriguez, had opted out of his mega-contract with the Yankees.

Red Sox fans were incensed - it tried to compete with our moment of triumph.

If you think that the McCain campaign - who's been stringing along the MSM all week long with these video press releases - can resist the temptation to leak the name Lieberman or Pawlenty or Jindal to Chuck Todd's Blackberry in the middle of tonight's festivities, you're deluding yourself.

Expect to find out tonight.

Pawlenty Clues -- Sked Cleared

CBS affiliate WCCO in Minneapolis is reporting that Gov. Tim Pawlenty's schedule has been cleared for today and tomorrow...

Now -- McCain's campaign could have made similar requests of other candidates. But Pawlenty's is the first we know about.

When Is A Bounce Just A Blip (Updated)

When it happens in real time.

I know Democrats are super eager to see Barack Obama open up a lead over John McCain, but they need to temper their enthusiasm just a bit. Remember, each track includes a three-day sample of interviews, and Wednesday night's festivities haven't even been polled yet, so you can't credit Biden's speech with anything.

Conclude if you'd like that people responded favorably to the convention initially.

But a bounce -- a real bounce -- is not a transient, one-day spike. Check back in mid-September. If Obama has opened up a lead and the lead is steady, then you can fairly say that the convention provided Obama with a boost.

My colleague Mark Blumenthal... actually, more than a colleague..a real polling pro who knows what he's talking about... will, I'm sure, weigh in.

Continue reading "When Is A Bounce Just A Blip (Updated)" »

Slow Striptease Diverts Reports' Attention

First came word, leaked to friendly reporters, that McCain would appear with his pick on Friday, the day after Obama's speech.

The official campaign response: "We don't discuss the timing."

Then came word that McCain might announce the pick on Thursday.

The official campaign response: "We don't discuss the timing."

Now, Matt Drudge's "source" is hinting a leak DURING the Obama speech and a confirmation a bit later.

The official campaign response: "We don't discuss timing."

Well done, McCain campaign. Reporters' attentions have been diverted.

DNC/Obama Ready to Vet The GOP Veep

"We're ready no matter who he picks," says Mike Gehrke, the DNC's research chief. "Republicans have a habit of pulling surprises." So: "We've dramatically expanded what the DNC has done previously and tied it in tighter with the message team earlier." 15 different picks were thoroughly vetted by the DNC... Gehrke won't say who. What about an independent Democrat named Lieberman? "No names," he says. To prepare, the team held conference calls with local officials in the potential picks' home cities and states. And a website to heckle the pick has already been set up.

But the DNC and the Obama campaign have special VP boiler rooms ready to go in Denver and Chicago. As soon as the pick is announced, those operations will pounce.

DNC Preps For VP Pick

"We're ready no matter who he picks," says Mike Gehrke, the DNC's research chief. "Republicans have a habit of pulling surprises." So: "We've dramatically expanded what the DNC has done previously and tied it in tighter with the message team earlier." 15 different picks were thoroughly vetted by the DNC... Gehrke won't say who. What about an independent Democrat named Lieberman? "No names," he says. To prepare, the team held conference calls with local officials in the potential picks' home cities and states. And a website to heckle the pick has already been set up.

But the DNC and the Obama campaign have special VP boiler rooms ready to go in Denver and Chicago. As soon as the pick is announced, those operations will pounce.

Pawlenty Canceling Interviews...

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) is canceling print and broadcast interviews for the day...

Huge Crowds...Lots Of Mags

The bad news is that 75,000 people will be let into Invesco Field only an short while before the program starts. (3pm local).

The good news is that the Secret Service has set up at least 50 magnetometer stations around the perimeter, which ought to speed things up.

VP -- McCain Insists He Hasn't Made Up His Mind Yet

Really?

John McCain says he hasn't decided on a running mate just yet. The Republican presidential candidate told a Pittsburgh radio station he wouldn't even talk about which way he is leaning. In the interview with KDKA NewsRadio on Thursday morning, McCain talked very highly about one of the people considered a strong possibility to be his choice, former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge. He called Ridge a great American and a dear friend whom he has relied upon for years.

With less than 24 hours to go before the announcement rally in Dayton, Ohio?

That's a stretch....either the New York Times and Mike Allen are completely wrong, or McCain is fibbing.

And why does McCain keep praising Gov. Tom Ridge?

The Enthusiasm Gap

The way Obama campaign manager David Plouffe tells it, one of the most important national metrics is way underreported. That's the enthusiasm gap between supporters of Barack Obama and supporters of John McCain.

Barack Obama can fill a 75,000 seat stadium.

John McCain, it seems, is having trouble filling a 10,000 seat theater in Dayton. They're giving away free tickets in several states and plan to bus in supporters. The VP announcement can't be overshadowed by a less-than-capacity crowd.

This isn't a McCain-bashing post. McCain's campaign has got to be concerned about the relative level of excitement that the GOP base feels. One way to generate some heat is to turn Barack Obama into a boogeyman. That's had a marginal effect so far. Only McCain can close the gap.

So will his convention next week be about McCain? Or Obama?

Biden's Most Important Line?

A smart reader notes that the press isn't giving much attention to perhaps the key line from Joe Biden. It's part of the advice his mother gave to him when he was bullied.

"Joey, go bloody their nose so that you can walk down the street."

The reader images that some focus group of steel workers in southern Ohio broke the dials when they heard that line. Expect to hear it and see it more.

Now He Has A Middle Name

The New York Times prints "Barack Hussein Obama" twice on its front page today.

Are we beyond the point where it remains controversial?

The Democrats Nominate Barack Obama

The major goal here was a peaceful, unified process... one that did not embarrass either Clinton or Obama.

The Clinton campaign and Democratic state chairs really wanted as long a roll call as possible...to give voters and states their due.

The Obama campaign wanted Clinton to put Obama over the top. The Clinton campaign said yes immediately. A necessary benediction and passing of the torch.

The Illinois to New York yielding was worked out today....

There was no acrimony... just some confusion about precisely what would happen.

Illinois To New York

New Mexico... will yield to Illinois; Illinois will yield to New York...Hillary Clinton will put Sen. Obama over the top.

Roll Call Votes

I'm still getting to the bottom of the last-minute switch to Illinois as the state that will put Sen. Obama over the top.

And I'm getting guidance that Sen. Clinton will be seated with the New York delegation.

The Clinton folks have insisted on every state getting to voice its preference...as have Democratic state chairs.

RNC Rules Committee Tinkers With Calendar

After January, no deluge?

Under a plan approved today by the rules committee of the Republican Party, states would be penalized if they held delegate selection contests before the first Tuesday in March.

That would allow more than a month of campaigning between the privileged early states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

An Ohio member's more ambitious calendar reform plan to institute rotating regional primaries failed by a vote of 39-to-12.

The McCain campaign supported the March window; they opposed the Ohioan's plan.

The RNC will penalize errant states by taking away half of their delegates.

That punishment did not work in 2008, as Florida and Michigan, both rule violators, played decisive roles in winnowing the field of candidates and eventually handing McCain a victory.

Other News: Clinton Releases Her Delegates

** Sen. Hillary Clinton formally released her delegates this afternoon, but she said that she would not tell her supporters how to vote.

** The Obama campaign believes that Rudy Giuliani disqualified Sen. John McCain from serving as president because Giuliani said that "this is not the time to have somebody with no executive experience as President of the United States."

Did The Obama Campaign See FInal Version Of Clinton's Speech Beforehand?

Patrick Healy, writing a fascinating New York Times article on Hillaryland, said no.

The Obama and Clinton campaigns both say yes. Repeated drafts. Including the final draft.

Bill Clinton's final draft will also be shared... although the man is famous for late rewrites.

Plouffe: McCain-Romney Would Be "Greatest Job-Killing Machine" In History

We're getting a transcript of David Plouffe's long interview with the Atlantic Media Company's convention forces, but here's another highlight:

Plouffe had this to say about McCain's vice presidential pick.

"If he does pick Romney, what a duo! It's the greatest job killing machine in the history of American politics. Mitt Romney is an expert on Cayman Island tax shelters. You couldn't have a more out of touch ticket."

The McCain Ad Shell Game

McCain campaign airs provocatively misleading ads.

The press has a conundrum.

If we want to point out how misleading they are, we air the ad.

McCain's campaign wins the point.

If refuse to point out how misleading they are, McCain's campaign escapes criticism.

Quote Of The Day

"Everyone has to wear Abercrombie and Fitch tomorrow."

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe responding, in jest, to a reporters' question about whether the demographic skew of tomorrow night's Invesco field event will be young.

Plouffe Sanguine About Obama's Prospects

Barack Obama's margin among independent swing-voting women and sporadically voting Democrats are two of the main metrics his campaign is closely monitoring, Obama's election manager, David Plouffe, said today.

Plouffe, speaking to reporters, editors and executives of the Atlantic Media company in a throwback conference room in downtown Denver, said that Obama's internal polling suggests that McCain runs a double-digit deficit with this group runs into the double digits in some swing states. "And that's before they know about his position on choice and that he's against equal pay," Plouffe said.

Voters, he said, were treated to an "a ha!" moment last week when McCain couldn't recall the number of houses he owned and suggested that earning $5 million a year would not make a person rich.

"The development on the out of touch argument is an actually critical development of the campaign," he said, because "[s]ome of the voters images of McCain don't jibe with reality."

He acknowledged that the campaign still had work to do in order to fill in some details about Barack Obama. "We have to be very careful how we approach the swing electorate because they don't have the information about Barack Obama."

We tried to get Plouffe to react to a spate of national polls showing a tightening race.

"All we care about is these 18 states," he said. He repeated, with emphasis, that the campaign does not care about national polling. Instead, the campaign's own identification, registration and canvassing efforts provide the data he uses to determine where to invest money and resources.

Other nuggets from Plouffe:

** If McCain doesn't win Colorado, "he has a 5% chance to win the election."

** He believes that they have "a slight edge" in Virginia.

** He said Obama is underperforming only among working class whites over 70 and pointed to a poll showing that Obama is over performing John Kerry with working class white voters under 50.

** Said that the campaign's target in Georgia is about 47% of the vote, owing to Ex-Rep. Bob Barr's ability to siphon votes away from John McCain.

** Said HIllary Clinton's speech "could not have gone better."

** Said the campaign "is really pleased" with where they are in Montana.

New McCain "Ad" Calls Obama "Dangerously Unprepared"

A new McCain campaign "ad" (airing presumably on cable in a few states) is notable for the narrator's tag line: "Barack Obama. Dangerously unprepared to be president."

No Bruce At Invesco

An Obama aide e-mails: "Since there have been some inaccurate reports out there, wanted to make sure you knew that Bruce Springsteen will not, in fact, be performing at the convention." An accompanying statement from Springsteen's manager, Jon Landeau: "Bruce has been and continues to be an ardent supporter of Barack Obama's."

Should Clinton Have Vouched For Obama's C-in-C Readiness?

There's a debate about whether Hillary should have vouched for Obama's commander in chief credentials.

Here is why, according to an aide, she did not.

Had she done that, all the media would focus on is the disparity between her convention praise and her primary criticism. And she would not have sounded genuine. It would have been contrived.

Tonight, Sen. Joe Biden's goal is to vouch for Obama as a commander in chief. That's going to be tough, given Biden's past insistence that Obama wasn't ready.

Biden has two other jobs tonight. One -- Democrats are salivating for a tough anti-McCain speech, and Biden will give it to them. But he has a very compelling life story, one that is attractive to working class whites... he needs to find a way to merge those themes.

With Warner, Obama Introduces A Theme

Listening to several speeches, it seems eems like the past versus the future is going to be the general election theme. Gov. Mark Warner gave a curtain-raiser to what the Obama campaign hopes is a winning general election message -- Barack Obama is the man of the future, who understands the uncertain and changing world we live in now. John McCain is a man of the past.

This fits into the frame that the general public has about both candidates. The technology stuff is key, since it's the meat on the bones of the rhetoric, but the past versus the future, especially when it comes to economic challenges, is the type of nutshell theme that many Obama partisans have been waiting for the campaign to embrace.

Who Vetted Daddy Yankee?

Say this: Daddy Yankee has cred.

The Reggaeton superstar who endorsed Sen. John McCain yesterday, was accused in 2007 of assaulting a soccer player at his hotel... and took a bullet in his leg during an altercation.

His lyrics are also quite NSFW and colorful.

Was he vetted by McCain's campaign?

A McCain spokesman would only say: "Don't mess with Daddy Yankee."

In A Convention Fairly Devoid Of Zingers

This, from Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, was pretty good:

"For John McCain , there's no place like home, or a home, or a home."

Massive Mag Lines

There are massive lines at the main guest and delegate magnetometer checkpoint at this hour. It's a widely known but little reported fact that many delegates, most guests, and nearly all donors choose to attend only the primetime hours.

Obviously, when ten thousand people try to go through ten magnetometers, there'll be problems.

Some Clinton supporters are grumbling that there must be some sort of conspiracy to deny them access to the hall, but there's not.

In The Hall Tonight

You'll see "Hillary Voters for Obama" signs...

Warner's Keynote

Buzzwords....Energy...China....Technology....Thomas Jefferson....broadband to remote areas...

Some interesting passages:

People always ask me, "What's your biggest criticism of President Bush?" I'm sure you all have your own. Here's mine: It's not just the policy differences. It's the fact that this president never tapped into our greatest resources - the character and resolve of the American people. He never asked us to step up.

Think about it: After September 11, if there was a call from the President to get us off foreign oil, to stop funding the very terrorists who had just attacked us, every American would have said, "How can I do my part?" This administration failed to believe in what we can achieve as a nation, when all of us work together.

...

You know, I spent 20 years in business. If you ran a company whose only strategy was to tear down the competition, it wouldn't last long. So why is this wisdom so hard to find in Washington? I know we're at the Democratic Convention, but if an idea works, it really doesn't matter if it has an "R" or "D" next to it. Because this election isn't about liberal versus conservative. It's not about left versus right. It's about the future versus the past.

In this election, at this moment, in our history, we know what the problems are. We know that at this critical juncture, we have only one shot to get it right. And we know that these new times demand new thinking. We believe in success. We believe that everyone should have an opportunity to get ahead. And with success comes a responsibility to make sure others can follow.

The full keynote after the jump.

Continue reading "Warner's Keynote" »

Sign Of The Times; NAM Courts Democrats

A discordant sight at the Democratic National Convention: Jay Timmons, walking the halls. Mr. Timmons is famous in politics for being the long-time chief of staff to Sen. George Allen of Virginia. (No, Mr. Timmons was not on staff for Sen. Allen's dalliance with "Macaca.") Timmons is now the executive vice president of the National Association for Manufacturers.

When I ran into him, he was wearing an "honored guest" hall credential. He was here in Denver, he said, to promote the virtues of tonight's keynote speaker, the former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner. Timmons is a big fan of Warner's. Might Republicans, I asked, have been inclined to vote for a Warmer-Obama ticket? "Absolutely," he said.

NAM has traditionally felt a gravitational pull toward the Republican political orbit, but it has reached out to Democrats this cycle -- a clear sign of the times. (The Chamber of Commerce remains a mostly Republican organization.)

Barack Obama "is willing to listen," Timmons said. "And we have a great relationship with Biden's office."

Romney's In The House

Gov. Mitt Romney has media credentials for the Democratic National Convention... so expect an interesting evening behind the scenes.

An Obvious Explanantion For No-Bounce

Gallup suggests that Obama's pick of Sen. Joe Biden did not appreciably bump up Sen. Obama's poll numbers.

One reason is that Americans don't know about Joe Biden. That's partly what the convention is for.

But Democrats ought not be anxious just yet.

This is a banal observation: there are some Democrats who are disappointed that that he didn't choose Hillary Clinton.

If these Democrats remain disappointed in mid-September, then the extra-juicy angst will pulpy. Until then..... patience, Democrats...patience.

This Is Why I've Stopped Reporting On The New McCain-Hillary Ads

They're almost video press releases... running on fumes...

Obama Camp's Data On Michelle's Speech

A senior Obama official says that, "to a high degree of confidence," the campaign knows that Michelle Obama's speech went over well in the 18 battleground states that Barack Obama is focusing on.

That means, yes, that the campaign ran several focus groups last night in those states.

Of Michelle and Barack Obama: "By the end of this convention, people will know that they are both sort of classic American stories," a second adviser said.

Some In McCain Camp Ponder Thursday VP Announcement

Perhaps hoping to turn a fresh page from the Democratic convention, advisers to Sen. John McCain are considering a Thursday night vice presidential announcement, an aide said yesterday, although the unofficial word from campaign headquarters is that Friday is still more likely.

The prospect of a slightly earlier announcement has some Republicans worried that McCain has settled on Sen. Joe Lieberman., They assume that the campaign would not risk the bad form associated with jumping on Obama's night if McCain announces a traditional pick, such as Gov. Mitt Romney or Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

Several McCain advisers, including Sen. Lindsey Graham, are actively pushing for Lieberman. Others, including many top fundraisers, are hoping that McCain chooses Gov. Mitt Romney. A smaller faction that includes some of McCain's longest-serving advisers believe that Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota would be a better pick.

McCain isn't showing his cards, not even to the five or so campaign officials who have been privy to the vice presidential search process.

The choice of Lieberman would surely precipitate fireworks during next week's Republican National Convention. Some McCain allies think that would be a good thing. It would, in their thinking, allow McCain to confront the protests and proclaim his independence. Others worry that the demonstrations would get out of hand and could badly divide a weakly unified party.

Although speculation about McCain's pick has been intense, it has not generated the amount of media interest that Barack Obama's search did. Indeed, the McCain campaign will not officially confirm that Washington lawyer A.B. Culvahouse is heading the search.

Some McCain advisers -- cautioning that they do not know what McCain is thinking -- say they assume that Obama's selection of Joe Biden may influence McCain's decision in one way: Biden is a spectacular debater and has a formidable stage presence. McCain's vice presidential nominee ought not appear wimpy in comparison.

Clinton Will Get Nominating, Seconding Speeches Tomorrow

A senior conventional official says that supporters of Sen. Hillary Clinton will formally place her name into nomination Wednesday night with regular nominating and seconding speeches. The roll call of states begins around 6:00 pm ET. As part of that process, Clinton delegates have been alloted time to speak. Sen. Barack Obama, of course, gets a nominating speech too. But he gets three seconding speeches. No word yet as to the identity of the speakers.

Bill Clinton To Accompany HIllary To Hall Tonight

Former President Clinton will accompany HIllary to the convention hall tonight, according to a convention official. It's unclear whether the Clintons will appear on-stage together. Chelsea Clinton was observed practicing with a hand-held microphone earlier today, and a Clinton adviser confirmed that she planned to introduce her mother.

Clinton and Obama Tongs Unite

Each convention day, a group of senior campaign officials hold twenty minute briefings for the major television networks. The briefings provide a preview about the evening's events. Today, senior Clinton adviser Mandy Grunwald and Obama campaign manager David Plouffe are briefing reporters together as a deliberate symbol of unity, according to an official.

These meetings are called "Tongs." Why? No one seems to know.

Biden's Influence Runs Deep

Tom Vilsack, the former governor of Iowa and a prominent supporter of Sen. Hillary Clinton, is enthusiastic about the prospect of an Obama-Biden ticket.

Mr. Vilsack counts Biden as one of his major political influences.

When the mayor of Mt. Pleasant, Iowa was assassinated, Vilsack, then a lawyer, recalled what Sen. Joe Biden had once said that good men and women have a duty to serve because if they don't less qualified people will take the job. So Vilsack ran for mayor, won, and then went on to serve two successful terms as governor.

A more personal anecdote pops into his head when he's asked to consider Biden's fitness for public office.

Vilsack's then 26-year-old son met Biden at the 2004 Democratic convention and mentioned to the Delaware senator that he would be vacationing on the Jersey Shore, just up the coast.
Biden gave Vilsack's son his home phone number and told him to call anytime if he needed anything -- after all, his parents would be far away, in Iowa.

"My son still has that number," he said.

I asked Vilsack whether Biden had been angry about his endorsement of Sen. Hillary Clinton.

No, Vilsack said.

"He knows that loyalty gets you very far in politics."

Bob Bauer's Election Protection Mission

Barack Obama's campaign predicts that as many as -- if not more than -- 130,000,000 voters will go to the polls this November, by far a record. The man in charge of making sure it all goes smoothly, Bob Bauer, is decidedly calm about the massive endeavor he is coordinating.

At a lunch for election lawyers, corporate and union counsels and a few nerdy reporters this afternoon, Mr. Bauer, Obama's general counsel, outlined the campaign's integrated election protection effort, the largest ever in the party's history.

A team of lawyers works out of an Obama for America pod at the Democratic National Committee. Donna Brazille, the longtime Democratic activist, is coordinating the party's end of the multi-million dollar program. (The DNC's efforts predated Obama's, having been announced in August of 2007.)

Bauer said that state councils have already been established, with volunteers working with state and local officials to preemptively resolve crisis before they're unveiled. Across the country, counties have reported massive increases in voter registration, mostly Democratic, and many municipalities were overwhelmed by larger-than-expected turnout during the Democratic primaries.

Bauer said that "thousands" of lawyers were participating.

To those in the media who wonder about the effect of thousand of lawyers scrutinizing every polling place, Bauer said: "We're not looking for a fight," he said. "We're looking to prevent a fight."

Mr. Bauer had invited as his guest Tom Daschle, the former Senate Majority Leader.

Mr. Daschle recalled his first election to Congress. At age 29, he was elected by 14 votes, but legal disputes held up his victory for more than a year. In 2004, when Daschle narrowly lost to challenger John Thune, he said that voters on American Indian reservations reported being harassed, and he recalled incidences of voter intimidation in black communities.
Daschle shepherded through Congress a palette of election reforms after the 2004 election.

"Don't let anyone persuade you the job is done," he said.

Just Wanted To Have Fun

Tonight, I made my debut on CBS News's Campaign '08 webcast with Katie Couric. As much as I would like to brag about being an A-list guest, that distinction is reserved for Caroline Kennedy... and Cindy Lauper, who dropped by unexpectedly. I'll be on the show each night at 11:00 pm ET.

DNC08 Live

Marc Ambinder's Live Twittering

Expectatons For Michelle Obama

Hate to say it, but she has to appear normal, average and exceptional. She is the most modern of first ladies-in-waiting, but the Obama's marriage and family life are the most traditional of any presidential candidate's family in recent memory. Michelle Obama is in a unique position to describe why this is so and how it reflects on her husband.

She will joke about her husband and bring him down to earth a little. She's good at that.

Many white Americans still have stereotyped impressions about black women and black families, and have very hook little to hang their minds on about the millions of middle class black families. Michelle Obama will help them fill in this perceptual gap.

Michelle Obama can be edgy; as a passionate advocate for her husband, she can occasionally veer into the eschatological. She will temper that understandable instinct.

She is an independent woman, balancing family and career. There is much for supporters of Hillary Clinton to admire in Michelle Obama, if only they can look beyond politics.

Michelle Obama: Barack Is "The Same Man I Met 19 Years Ago"

There is plenty in Michelle Obama's speech about her husband Barack, but her own introduction and identity are important too. She is, she says, first and foremost, a mother:

"But each of us also comes here tonight by way of our own improbable journey. I come here tonight as a sister, blessed with a brother who is my mentor, my protector and my lifelong friend. I come here as a wife who loves my husband and believes he will be an extraordinary president. I come here as a Mom whose girls are the heart of my heart and the center of my world - they're the first thing I think about when I wake up in the morning, and the last thing I think about when I go to bed at night. Their future - and all our children's future - is my stake in this election.

And her roots in a traditional family:

And I come here as a daughter - raised on the South Side of Chicago by a father who was a blue collar city worker, and a mother who stayed at home with my brother and me. My mother's love has always been a sustaining force for our family, and one of my greatest joys is seeing her integrity, her compassion, and her intelligence reflected in my own daughters.

On Obama:

"And Barack and I were raised with so many of the same values: that you work hard for what you want in life; that your word is your bond and you do what you say you're going to do; that you treat people with dignity and respect, even if you don't know them, and even if you don't agree with them.
And Barack and I set out to build lives guided by these values, and pass them on to the next generation. Because we want our children - and all children in this nation - to know that the only limit to the height of your achievements is the reach of your dreams and your willingness to work for them."

"And in the end, after all that's happened these past 19 months, the Barack Obama I know today is the same man I fell in love with 19 years ago. He's the same man who drove me and our new baby daughter home from the hospital ten years ago this summer, inching along at a snail's pace, peering anxiously at us in the rearview mirror, feeling the whole weight of her future in his hands, determined to give her everything he'd struggled so hard for himself, determined to give her what he never had: the affirming embrace of a father's love."

A vignette that may well stick in the minds of many who are uneasy about the commonness of the Obamas.

Caroline Kennedy: Obama and Ted Came Along "When We Need[ed] Them the Most"

Excerpts of Caroline Kennedy's speech:

"I am here tonight to pay tribute to two men who have changed my life, and the life of this country - Barack Obama, and Edward M. Kennedy. Their stories are very different, but they share a commitment to the timeless American ideals of justice and fairness, service and sacrifice, faith and family. Leaders like them come along rarely. But once or twice in a lifetime, they come along just when we need them the most.

"I have never had someone inspire me the way people tell me my father inspired them - but I do now. And I know someone else who's been inspired all over again by Senator Obama.

"In our family, he'll always be known as Uncle Teddy. More than any senator of his generation, or perhaps any generation, Teddy has made life better for people in this country and around the world. For 46 years, he has been so much more than just a Senator for the people of Massachusetts, he's been a Senator for all who believe in a dream that's never died."

In Retrospect, Not The Best Way To Say He's An Average Joe

Sen. Joe Biden, in a South Carolina Democratic debate in 2007: "I don't have Barack Obama money either. My net worth is $70,000 to $150,000." The quote and video are making the rounds among Republicans trying to figure out how to take the populist Democratic ticket down a notch.

Also Happening Today: Pro-And-Anti Obama Ads, Biden Visits 16th Street

The Clinton and Obama campaigns have pretty much figured out how they want the roll call to proceed on Wednesday. It'll start traditionally, with states announcing their votes, and then, when it's New York's turn, Clinton will release her delegates and urge them to nominate Obama by acclamation.

Obama's campaign released a fact check ad on William Ayres. The ad is designed to respond to a Republican 527 group's $2.8 million advertising campaign linking Obama to the former Weatherman. In the ad, the narrator said that Obama has "denounced Ayres."

John McCain sent Cindy McCain to Georgia.

A black Republican PAC is airing an ad in the Dayton, Ohio market accusing Obama of supporting infanticide.

And Sen. Joe Biden paid a surprise visit to downtown Denver's pedestrian mall today, where he was greeted by hundreds of locals and a large press corps.

Pictures Of The Convention. 10:02 MT Monday

Condoms, Condoms, Condoms

What a lucky break for the Trojan prophylactic company, and what a potentially embarrassing, although entirely uncontrollable, image snafu for the Democratic Naitonal Convention.

Reporters, staffers and even delegates walking toward the 14th street magnetometer checkpoint have to first survive a a guantlet of yellow-shirted condom-bearing soldiers hired by the Trojan company to promote its safe-sex, sex-positive message.

The DNC is not amused, although there's nothing they can do: Trojan rented the parking lot from the owner of the adjacent building.

As one reporter accepted a condom, he was heard to say to the vendor, "You think I have time to get [lucky] this week?"

Here's my (revealing?) interview with the Trojan folks.

This Convention Is About A Number

Depending on the measure, Obama receives the support of about 80% of people who describe themselves as Democrats. John McCain receives the support of at least 85% of those who describe themselves as Republicans.

Now -- in this cycle, many more Americans describe themselves as Democrats than Republicans. The two split independents, but the party ID gap explains why Obama is still slightly ahead of McCain nationally. He has better standing among virtually every demographic group now than John Kerry did at the time of his election. Among all groups...but people who call themselves Democrats. (Kerry won Democrats 89-11.)

Obama will try to use this convention to increase his standing among Democrats. This convention is NOT aimed at persuading people who call themselves independents and moderates. It's about persuading people who lean left and call themselves Democrats but who, for many reasons, aren't sure about Obama.

They are, yes, Hillary supporters, but a certain type of Hillary supporters: mainly white voters without college degrees. Ron Brownstein has noted that in four polls taken before the convention, Obama sits at 38% with this group. These voters, as pollster Stan Greenberg's new data shows, have a panoply of concerns. Unquestionably, some are racist. But a majority of them worry about Obama's credentials, his liberal positions on national security issues, and whether he truly understands their economic insecurities.

It is much easier to convince these voters to vote for Obama when they see Obama as the antidote to the Bush presidency, and when they see McCain as a Bush Republican. SO -- you will hear and see speaker after speaker portray McCain as a Bush Republican. Polling shows that even when recalcitrant Democrats learn about Obama's middle class roots, they're still skeptical. It is MUCH harder to convince them to vote for Obama because they LIKE him. It is much easier to convince them to vote for Obama because they think McCain represents a continuation of President Bush's policies. (Obama's campaign has polling data suggesting that an unusually large number of pro-choice Democrats don't know that McCain is pro-life.)

Is The Kristol Float Official?

Bill Kristol's New York Times column seems to reflect thinking at a very high level of the McCain campaign. One part of it, anyway.

Just asking: would a floor fight at the convention be disastrous? Might it reinforce, in a way, McCain's anti-Republican Republicanism.

RNC IE Goads Clinton Supporters

The Republican National Committee's independent expenditure unit goads Clinton supporters with a new ad airing in Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Brad Todd, the RNC's IE supervisor, sends along a link to the ad.

SCRIPT FOR "Was She Right?"
ANNCR: Who has the experience to govern our nation?
Sen. Clinton: "Senator McCain will bring a lifetime of experience to the campaign. I will bring a lifetime of experience. And Senator Obama will bring a speech he gave in 2002." (Source: CNN 3/8/08)
ANNCR: Barack Obama. He gives a great speech. But Americans must ask ourselves: should we elect the most inexperienced presidential candidate of our times? Or was she right? The Republican National Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising."

Continue reading "RNC IE Goads Clinton Supporters" »

Hillary Alums Debate Support

The debate in Clintonland rages on. Are Clintonites insulting Hillary by not supporting Barack? Is Barack not being nice to Hillary? Check out this exchange from a restricted access Google group for Clinton campaign alumni.

From: clinton-08-alumni@googlegroups.com [clinton-08-alumni@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Jane Dreher Emerson [REDACTED]
Sent: Monday, August 25, 2008 7:50 AM
To: clinton-08-alumni@googlegroups.com
Subject: [HRC 08 Alumni] Re: Stop Insulting Hillary...

Why can't BO just be nice to her?? That would help unite us.

From: clinton-08-alumni@googlegroups.com [mailto:clinton-08-alumni@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Malcolm Eve
Sent: Monday, August 25, 2008 10:33 AM
To: clinton-08-alumni@googlegroups.com
Subject: [HRC 08 Alumni] Re: Stop Insulting Hillary...

AMEN - If you truly ever supported Hillary Clinton please honor her by doing the right thing. All of us wanted Senator Clinton to win. If Senator Clinton can stand with Barack Obama surely anyone that supported her can do the same. You can't possibly want John McCain in the White House.

-----Original Message-----
From: clinton-08-alumni@googlegroups.com [mailto:clinton-08-alumni@googlegroups.com]On Behalf Of Nicholas Kelly
Sent: Monday, August 25, 2008 10:17 AM
To: clinton-08-alumni@googlegroups.com
Subject: [HRC 08 Alumni] Stop Insulting Hillary...

...by refusing to support Barack Obama.

The issues that Hillary Clinton has worked so tirelessly for--expanded access to healthcare, a woman's right to choose, the restoration of America's standing in the world--have been just as tirelessly opposed by John McCain and the GOP. If you refuse to support Obama in November you are standing in opposition to Hillary and thwarting her lifetime of hard work.

What's more, you will irreversibly damage her entire future. At BEST, Hillary will be seen as powerless and unable exercise leadership in regard to her supporters. At WORST, she will be seen as conniving to sabotage her own party at the most crucial political moment in a generation. Either way, her career will be over.

Could you live with that?
--
Nicholas Kelly
IA, OH, PA, IN

Here's A Way To Make Sure VP Cheney Doesn't Distract From The RNC Proceedings

His office announced a trip to central Asia. He'll leave right after he speaks to the Republican National Convention next Monday evening.

Vice President Cheney will travel abroad beginning September 2, 2008. President Bush has asked the Vice President to travel to Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine and Italy for discussions with these key partners on issues of mutual interest. The Vice President will meet with President Aliyev of Azerbaijan, President Saakashvili of Georgia, President Yushchenko of Ukraine, and President Napolitano and Prime Minister Berlusconi of Italy, as well as senior officials of their respective governments. In addition to meetings with foreign leaders, the Vice President will attend and address the Ambrosetti forum entitled, "Intelligence on the World, Europe and Italy" in Lake Como, Italy.

A Flare-Up Between Hillaryland and Denver

Politico's editor in chief and a colleague report on tension between the Clinton and Obama camps over Bill Clinton's speech. I've downplayed reports of tensions in the past. But sources back up the Politico to a point: things are getting a little hairy as the reality of the convention sets in. Obama aides acknowledge that there has been some recent bumps on the road but insist that reports of boiled over anger are way overplayed.

It's not surprising that a former president thinks he ought to be able to talk about what he wants. And President Clinton wants to talk about the economy as much as the theme of the night, which is national security. The Obama campaign has asked Clinton to stick to his theme. This dispute played out a bit ago, but frustration lingers.

Another point of tension, sources say, is that the Obama campaign is aware that Mark Penn is advising Bill Clinton on the speech. Obama's campaign doesn't like Mark Penn. (Also writing: Don Baer, Clinton's former communications director. Obama's campaign is fine with Baer.)

On the Clinton side, there is some anger that the Obama campaign did not sufficiently communicate to Democrats about the (dismal) prospects of Hillary Clinton joining the ticket. One Clinton adviser: "On the vetting, please. They did not prepare the ground for it not to be her. The last 72 hours were poorly scripted."

Also: Cheryl Mills, Clinton's chief negotiator, is a passionate advocate for her client. But she's been getting along with David Plouffe as well as could be expected.

The Obama campaign is trying to beat back these reporters. They do not want to be distracted by the blow-up, and they do not want reporters to focus on fighting.

Update: the Clinton and Obama campaigns offered this joint statement:

"We understand that some in the news media are more interested in reporting the rumor of controversy than the fact of unity. The fact is that our teams are working closely to ensure a successful convention and will continue to do so. Senator and President Clinton fully support the Obama/Biden ticket and look forward to addressing the convention and the nation on the urgency of victory this Fall. Anyone saying anything else doesn't know what they're talking about. Period."

The Texas Republican Party Attacks; Mentions Obama's Brother's Penury

This is a web video designed to rally the Republican faithful. It was produced and paid for by the Republican Party of Texas.

The key line: "If Barack cares so much about your family , why doesn't he take care of his family first?. Barack Obama lives in this house [Hyde Park home], wants to live in this house [the White House] , while his own brother lives in this one. (A picture of George Hussein Onyango Obama 's shack in Nairobi.)

The imagery includes a still of Obama fist-bumping wife Michelle.

Sunday Night Live Twittering

Marc Ambinder's Live Twittering

Sen. Kennedy Might Attend Convention

It's been rumored for weeks, and official sources have not tamped down on the speculation. But Democratic officials familiar with the convention schedule say that there are indications tonight that room is being built into the line-by-line event rundown for a surprise guest during tomorrow night's planned tribute to Sen. Edward Kennedy. Kennedy, who has brain cancer, has good days and bad days, people close to the family say.

His immune system has been weakened by chemo and radiation treatments, and so a cross-country flight and appearance before a large crowd might be medically dangerous for him.

His son Patrick Kennedy told the Associate Press that an "eleventh hour" decision will be made.

Obama Looks To History As He Edits His Speech

By some accounts, Barack Obama has spent more than a dozen hours already practicing his Invesco field acceptance speech.

Clues about its substance are hard to come by, but the campaign has begun to let some details out.

Let's get this out of the way: the speech will not be a reprisal of his 2004 convention keynoter, or so the campaign says.

2008's speech will be "workmanlike." Less broader themes and more of Obama's life story and the people he's met on his journey. Then he "will put in front of Americans the choice they have in this election."

A senior campaign official said that Obama had recently read John F. Kennedy's convention speech in 1960 and Ronald Reagan's convention speech in 1980.

Kennedy asked whether Americans have the "nerve and will" to reclaim what's great about the country amid international crisis and "eight years of fitful sleep."

And after eight years of drugged and fitful sleep, this nation needs strong, creative Democratic leadership in the White House.
But we are not merely running against Mr. Nixon. Our task is not merely one of itemizing Republican failures. Nor is that wholly necessary. For the families forced from the farm will know how to vote without our telling them. The unemployed miners and textile workers will know how to vote. The old people without medical care--the families without a decent home--the parents of children without adequate food or schools--they all know that it's time for a change.
But I think the American people expect more from us than cries of indignation and attack. The times are too grave, the challenge too urgent, and the stakes too high--to permit the customary passions of political debate. We are not here to curse the darkness, but to light the candle that can guide us through that darkness to a safe and sane future. As Winston Churchill said on taking office some twenty years ago: if we open a quarrel between the present and the past, we shall be in danger of losing the future.

Reagan said that the "major issue of this campaign is the direct political, personal and moral responsibility of Democratic Party leadership--in the White House and in Congress--for this unprecedented calamity which has befallen us."

McCain-Whitman Buzz In Denver

A Democratic member of Congress throws out the following scenario:

With Biden on board Obama's train, McCain will find himself boxed in by events.

He can't choose Tim Pawlenty -- a man with arguably fewer foreign policy credentials than Obama. He still doesn't trust Mitt Romney, and he's stung a little by the thought of a 15-houses-between-them ticket. (Doris Kearns Goodwin disagrees; she thinks Romney is now the obvious pick because of his debating skills.) He can't choose Lieberman because he fears a pro-life revolt.

So --- he chooses Meg Whitman. eBay's CEO. A former Romney fundraiser. McCain trusts her judgment on economic matters. (He told Rick Warren that she would be one of the three people whose advice he could not do without.) She's ~~pro-life~~. Unclear what her stance is on abortion. A good surrogate. And Biden wouldn't dare be mean to a woman in a debate, right?

It's a thought.

But eBay's lost a lot of value in ten years. There's a lot about Whitman we don't know. A lot that social conservatives might object to: eBay is very good to its gay employees, for one thing. And Whitman has her heart set on the governors's mansion in California. Is she ready to lead from day one? When was the last time she went to Iraq? Etc. Etc.

McCain: Don't Forget About Disunity, Democrats. Disunity! -- Updated With Clinton Response

So let's get this straight.

Joe Biden insinuates that Obama is unqualified.

That he has a lot more learning to do.

That he needs more substance and style.

And Obama picks him.

John McCain's new ad, designed to reinforce the spurn that Hillary Clinton supporters feel, claims that Obama rejected Clinton because she said the very same things about him.

Huh?

Now -- not saying that it's a bad ad. It's provocative. It was played on the Sunday morning chat shows. It injects Clinton agita back into the proceedings. It's also very tactical, very inside-the-beltway.

Clinton's political office released this response:

"Hillary Clinton's support of Barack Obama is clear. She has said repeatedly that Barack Obama and she share a commitment to changing the direction of the country, getting us out of Iraq, and expanding access to health care. John McCain doesn't. It's interesting how those remarks didn't make it into his ad."

The thinking in Obamaland is that once many of the recalcitrant Clinton voters know about McCain's record on abortion and other women's issues, they'll come back into fold. The Obama campaign has polled this...

Explaining "Indianapolis."

Earlier this week, I reported that an advance team affiliated with Sen. Obama's campaign was on its way to Indianapolis to set up for a Saturday event. The item was first reported elsewhere, and an Obama campaign official confirmed to me that there were Obama advance agents in Indianapolis.

Well, it's Sunday. And, uh, nothing happened in Indianapolis yesterday.

So what happened?

Looking back, I overwrote.

There were Obama advance folks in Indianapolis. But they weren't there to set up a homecoming event for vice presidential nominee Evan Bayh. They were there to scout locations for events connected with a presidential debate.

I too quickly took the confirmation of their presence as confirmation that they were connected with a Saturday event. I got caught up in the moment. That happens sometimes, but given the intense speculatory environment, and the consequences of said speculation, even sourced, I should have been more careful.

Saturday Night Live Twittering And Video Updates

Marc Ambinder's Live Twittering

Clueless Commentary Alert

The thesis: "Joe Biden appeals to white working class voters, so his selection will give Obama a bump in that demographics."

Huh?

Most Americans don't know enough about Joe Biden to know who he is. 70%. Including most Democrats, according to a CNN poll.

So we don't know who Biden will help with, or whether he'll help with anyone.

The "third senator from Pennsylvania" has to introduce himself to 48 other states.

(Confession: I've made this analytic point before, so I'm just as clueless.)

Biden's Economy

The Obama campaign particularly likes this paragraph from Sen. Biden's speech today:

Ladies and gentlemen, your kitchen table is like mine. You sit there at night before you put the kids -- after you put the kids to bed and you talk, you talk about what you need. You talk about how much you are worried about being able to pay the bills. Well, ladies and gentlemen, that's not a worry John McCain has to worry about. It's a pretty hard experience. He'll have to figure out which of the seven kitchen tables to sit at. Folks, again, it's not political sloganary when I say we literally can't afford four more years of this non-energy policy written by and for the oil companies, making us more and more dependent from hostile nations on our ability to run this country and literally, not figuratively, literally putting America's security at risk, we can't afford four more years of a foreign policy that has shredded our alliances and sacrificed our moral standing around the world.

RNC To Highlight Biden's "Gaffes"

A Republican official says that the Republican National Committee plans to unveil a "Biden Gaffe Clock" to show off the Democratic vice presidential nominee's propensity for wordiness.

First up: "Barack America." Biden said that today. (The crowd in Springfield corrected him.)

So far, the McCain-RNC crowd has limited its criticism to Sen. Obama; after all, McCain and Biden are friends. No longer.

(An Obama spokesman: " RNC staffers shouldn't throw stones from their 7 glass houses."

An Outside The Comfort Zone Pick

My first thoughts, updated

Obama-Biden will be a formidable ticket, and a risky ticket, and not a comfort zone choice for Obama. "It's a big ball pick, not a small ball pick," an adviser said.

Put aside the obvious: Biden has foreign policy meat on his bones...He's a great debater... he's the party's best foreign policy surrogate... world leaders call him...he has a working-class Scranton-bred Irish-Catholic heritage...he knows Washington very well...he has known tragedy in his life..

He was elected to the Senate as a change agent at the age of 29. He is comfortable but not wealthy -- he has not used the prerogatives of office to enrich his personal wealth, although his family has benefited from his stature. (The GOP will quickly point out that one of his sons is a lobbyist.)

Biden premised his presidential candidacy on the notion that Obama was unqualified and not ready from day one. You can expect that the McCain campaign or the RNC will run a national television advertisement featuring Biden's many and various quotations to this effect. Biden will have to explain why he has changed his mind.

I gather that what impressed Obama about Biden is that Biden gets things done. He's a man of action. He's not a bullshitter. I also get the sense that Biden, 65, is pretty well aware that, at age 73 in eight years, he's not going to be a viable presidential choice, and thus was able to convince Obama that because the vice presidency would be his terminal position, the famous Biden ego will take a subordinate role.

I gather that Obama realizes that he needed a pick that would demonstrate some level of intellectual seriousness about the condition of the world. One of his sons heads for Iraq soon. Obama knows that, for Biden, getting Iraq right is much more than just about proving a point. If Georgia had not been invaded by Russia, would Biden be as attractive? Maybe. Counterfactuals for another time.

Biden is also a fighter on domestic policy. He touts as one of his greatest legislative accomplishments 1994's Violence Against Women Act. He's a mainline Democrat whose fingerprints are on most of the major liberal policy accomplishments over the past few decades.

Some liberals think he's a bully who got the Iraq war wrong (although Biden did try to pass a less bellicose resolution.) But I suspect that the general response from most Democrats will be "Great choice."

The criticism will focus on Biden's 1987 plagiarism bout, his support of credit card companies (he pushed the bankruptcy bill that Dems hate), his comments about Obama, his racial obliviousness (the comment about Indian-Americans in 7/11). He's a DC Insider. Obama didn't double down on hope. In a normal year, this stuff would have disqualified him instantly. The biggest trope may be that the Dems are an All Talk ticket. Two famous talkers.

Continue reading "An Outside The Comfort Zone Pick" »

Early Thoughts On The Extremely Early Biden Spin Wars

A very aggressive response from the McCain campaign. Statement matched by new ad... reams of research...

The network morning shows seem to be highlighting Biden's gaffes.

Ok -- but Obama campaign's Gibbs was on CBS and ABC....

And who watches morning news on Saturday anyway?

McCain Campaign Turns Biden's Words Against Obama

A new ad airing in "key states."

This is pretty tough...

ANNCR: What does Barack Obama's running mate say about Barack Obama? ABC'S GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: You were asked, "Is he ready?" You said, "I think he can be ready but right now, I don't believe he is. The presidency is not something that lends itself to on-the-job training." JOE BIDEN: I think that I stand by the statement. ANNCR: And what does he say about John McCain? BIDEN: I would be honored to run with or against John McCain, because I think the country would be better off. JOHN
MCCAIN: I'm John McCain and I approve this message.

This is going to test the Obama campaign's rapid response capability. One would assume that they're locked and loaded to respond. We'll see.

Obama's Website Offers Clues About What Obama Sees In Biden

Text on Obama's website provides the first official description of what Obama sees in Sen. Biden:

Barack has chosen Joe Biden to be his running mate. Joe Biden brings extensive foreign policy experience, an impressive record of collaborating across party lines, and a direct approach to getting the job done.

And I think the campaign kept its promise. Supporters who went to bed before midnight ET will wake up and check their cell phones...presumably before they flip on the TV.

The first page of the website is a fundraising solicitation.

On the home page, supporters are invited to send Biden a welcoming e-mail.

The Text Is Here!

From: 622-62

Barack has chosen Senator Joe Biden to be our VP nominee. Watch the first Obama-Biden rally live at 3pm ET on www.BarackObama.com. Spread the word!

Aug 23, 3:04am

Obama/Biden -- Vote and Comment Here

My comments board is down, so comment via the Polldaddy.com link after you vote.

More Republican Oppo On Biden

Quotes making the rounds of GOPers:

"I've been calling for more troops for over two years, along with John McCain and others subsequent to my saying that." -- Meet the Press, November 27, 2005
"The only guy on the other side who's qualified is John McCain." -- MSNBC, October 30, 2007

"John McCain is a personal friend, a great friend, and I would be honored to run with or against John McCain, because I think the country would be better off" -- The Daily Show, August 2, 2005
And a Biden campaign release: "The Biden for President Campaign today congratulated Sen. Barack Obama for arriving at a number of Sen. Biden's long-held views on combating al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan."

McCain Campaign Reacts To Biden's Selection

"There has been no harsher critic of Barack Obama's lack of experience than Joe Biden. Biden has denounced Barack Obama's poor foreign policy judgment and has strongly argued in his own words what Americans are quickly realizing - that Barack Obama is not ready to be President."

The words of Ben Porritt, a McCain spokesman.

Obama Picks Sen. Joe Biden

This is a formidable ticket, and a risky ticket, and not a comfort zone choice for Obama.

Put aside the obvious: Biden has foreign policy meat on his bones...He's a great debater... he has a working-class Scranton-bred Irish-Catholic heritage...he knows Washington very well...he has known tragedy in his life...

He was elected to the Senate as a change agent at the age of 29. He is comfortable but not wealthy -- he has not used the prerogatives of office to enrich his personal wealth, although his family has benefited from his stature.

Biden premised his presidential candidacy on the notion that Obama was unqualified and not ready from day one. You can expect that the McCain campaign or the RNC will run a national television advertisement featuring Biden's many and various quotations to this effect.

I gather that what impressed Obama about Biden is that Biden gets things done. He's a man of action. He's not a bullshitter. I also get the sense that Biden, 65, is pretty well aware that, at age 73 in eight years, he's not going to be a viable presidential choice, and thus convinced Obama that because the vice presidency would be his terminal position, the famous Biden ego will take a subordinate role.

I gather that Obama realizes that he needed a pick that would demonstrate some level of intellectual seriousness about the condition of the world. One of his sons heads for Iraq soon. Obama knows that, for Biden, getting Iraq right is much more than just about proving a point.

Biden is also a fighter on domestic policy. He touts as one of his greatest legislative accomplishments 1994's Violence Against Women Act.

Some liberals think he's a bully who got the Iraq war wrong (although Biden did try to pass a less bellicose resolution.) . But I suspect that the general response from Democrats will be "Great choice."

The criticism will focus on Biden's 1987 plagiarism bout, his support of credit card companies (he pushed the bankruptcy bill that Dems now hate), his comments about Obama, his racial obliviousness (the comment about Indian-Americans in 7/11).

In a normal year, this stuff would have disqualified him instantly.

That Obama (apparently) picked him demonstrates a recognition that the Democratic ticket ought to be more than just about Obama's personality... or a statement of bipartisan pragmatism... it's easy to float on gossamers when the world is safe, but when it's burning down, a guy like Biden is just the ticket.

Republicans Begin To Spread Biden Research

Like this quote, from 2007, from an unpublished interview.

On Obama:

"You know he's a very smart guy. I can't speak for me. But I know for me that it was a learning experience. I worked very hard. I'm sure he's working very hard too. I've watched seven presidents, and I've watched presidents who have come to office who haven't thought through some of the areas that they've never worked in, for example foreign policy. I watched several presidents come in and they're smart as the devil and they get here and unless you already know when you get here exactly what your foreign policy is, it's awful hard to hit the ground running and not to make serious mistakes the first couple of years. I'm not saying that senator Obama is where I was [when elected to the senate at age 29]. I was younger than he was when he got to the Senate. But I do think, I acknowledge that experience is not the issue, it's whether your experience has been good or bad. Somebody with 34 years of bad experience isn't perfectly qualified to be president, someone with 34 years of good experience that makes a big difference. So, again, I know it's kind of difficult to master, it's kind of difficult to feel sure-footed in a lot of areas that you haven't spent a long of time dealing with."

It's Almost Over

Obama Camp Will Send Text Tomorrow Morning

According to a campaign official, the plan is to send out the text message a few hours before Obama's 12pm CT event in Springfield.

Most everyone in the national press corps think that it's Joe Biden. But no one knows, and no one is willing to pull the trigger.

I can confirm reporting by NBC News that Gov. Tim Kaine's associates are saying that Obama did not choose him, although I don't have any first hand accounts.

Sources close to Biden and Bayh have been in lockdown mode.

Btw: on that Flightaware fun: someone apparently flew from ILG to MDW earlier this morning, so the flight we tracked might simply have been a credit card company executive returning from a meeting in Chicago.

Live Twittering From Denver

Triumph Of New Media Over Old Media

A reader writes:

Wolf Blitzer on the Situation Room begging viewers to stay tuned so CNN can bring them coverage of a text message.

Fun With Local TV News Stations: Obama-Bayh Stickers?

I doubt the following story.... the bumper sticker is just too ugly to be official.

From KMBC in Lexena:

After weeks of speculation and days of intense rumors, the answer to who Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama would name as his running mate may have come down to a bumper sticker printed in Lenexa.KMBC's Micheal Mahoney reported that the company, which specializes in political literature, has been printing Obama-Bayh material. That's Bayh as in U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana. Word leaked out about the material as it was being printed up by Gill Studios of Lenexa. The Obama campaign had said it would make the announcement by text message on Friday.

http://www.kmbc.com/politics/17267009/detail.html

Fun With FlightAware: What's This Flight?

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/EJA863

A flight from Midway to New Castle, DE... to pick someone up? Who knows? No other flights from anywhere in and around Chicago to anywhere in and around Delaware... or vice versa. Just this charter.

Timing Hints: Gibbs Doing The Morning Shows

Obama chief strategist Robert Gibbs booked on morning shows tomorrow....

Hard to imagine he'd appear BEFORE we know...

Veepstakes Tidings

CNN first reported, and I can confirm, that Barack Obama has begun calling some folks who were vetted but who didn't quite make it.

Maybe these aren't the short-listers. Maybe these are the long-listers.

In any event, Hillary Clinton has NOT been called. (There's "news" of her not-being vetted, but the New York Times reported this a while ago.)

Evan Bayh has NOT been called.

and Joe Biden has not only NOT been called, it appears that everyone associated with him as gone to ground.

And FWIW: some Bayh folks think Biden's the guy.

Also FWIW: Virginia Democrats still don't think Kaine's the guy.

More McCain Scheduling Info

Missouri Republicans confirming a McCain event in O'Fallon, MO on 8/31.

Podium Wars!

The Real Democratic Podium: Let The Voting Begin

McCain's Pick

Downhill On The Road To Denver

Maybe Barack Obama should thank John McCain. McCain hands him this beautiful gift of an out-of-touch rich guy statement right when he's about to pivot to the economy, Obama gets to mock it all day long today, he baits McCain into unleashing some of the most negative ads he's likely to put out there, THEN announces his vice presidential friend.

Then he has a four day national commercial in which everyone close to a camera talks about the seven houses gaffe.

THEN gives a (we all presume) barn-burner of a speech presenting his economic plan. One assumes. Barns don't burn as easily as they used to.

McCain has changed messages.

His new ad is all about how obama isn't a naive self-important celebrity anymore; instead, he's a scheming back-room corrupt pol, didn't you know?

Obama's aides think that these ads go a bit too far. Not light and demeaning.... but mean and cold. We will see.

Hints Of Major McCain Rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan On Or About 8/31

So there's apparently going to be a major political event in Grand Rapids, Michigan on or about 8/31.

A McCain campaign event, say two sources. (Cautioning as always...plans could change, but...)

On one hand, Mitt Romney's home base is in Oakland County, or Macomb County, not Grand Rapids.

On the other, other hand, Romney has campaigned in GR many times.

On the other, other, other hand, Michigan is a swing state.

CW says McCain will appear with his pick in Ohio on Aug 29 and then tour the country. A stop in Pennsylvania is also planned, probably on the 30th.

So is, apparently, a stop in Michigan, on the 31st.

A Michigan GOP spokesperson referred questions about the schedule to the McCain campaign, which declined to comment.

Dems Encouraged By Obama's Aggressiveness

One prominent Dem consultant e-mails:

I am very encouraged by the NYTimes story this morning that HILLARY needs to do more to help unify the party, not Obama, with testimonial quotes from HER voters. It's like the hamster started running again in the mind of his campaign and they're acting like desperate, scrappy street yard bulldogs not aloof Ivy Professors.

A Note On Body Language

Virginia Democrats close to Gov. Tim Kaine read a lot into Kaine's body language during the day yesterday. He seemed... to know. Apparently, he doesn't have much of a poker face. From his mien, we've all concluded that Obama told Kaine he wouldn't be picked and that Kaine was wearing the rejection.

Maybe.

But perhaps the opposite is true: perhaps Kaine, having been entrusted with an enormous secret, a life-changing secret, was stunned into humility. Would YOU feel all jazzed reading the talking points if you knew that your life would be changed forever just 24 hours hence?

I'm not trying to confuse matters here... just saying that we ought to be careful of confirmation bias when trying to read the body language of VP contenders.

Seven Houses: How's It Playing?

The Obama campaign sends clips to reporters this a.m from the network evening newscasts local news in places like Raleigh-Durham, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Erie and dozens of excerpts from newspapers and websites.

I'm betting that the McCain campaign hopes that Obama's VP roll-out eclipses this stuff, but something tells me that Obama's campaign may milk it, even as both candidates are technically "off" today.

For VPs, Trust? Who Needs Trust?

DENVER -- I'll confess both ignorance and agnosticism about Time's reporting that Sen. John McCain has "settled" on Mitt Romney. I just don't know. We will see.

But if it is Mitt Romney, and if Barack Obama has indeed chosen Sen. Joe Biden, as Time also insinuates (and as a report, one that I have a better feeling about), note, then, that both Obama and McCain would seem to have settled on the consensus Washington choice. DC establishment types with Rs after their names long ago settled on Mitt Romney as the "obvious" best pick for McCain; the Biden consensus came a little later, but it exists. IF Obama has picked Biden and IF McCain has chosen Romney, then both men will have rejected the proffered advice that they only choose someone they completely and explicitly trust and in trust's stead, followed some other guidance.

Does McCain have warmer feelings after Romney? Sure. We can buy that. Does he trust him? I mean, I can remember some of the things that McCain said about Romney, in private, that were imparted to reporters on an off-the-record basis, things that were meant to convey the impression that McCain just didn't like the guy and, most of all, felt he could not be trusted. A lot of current McCain advisers felt the same way.

Trusting Biden is less of a sell, but there are many Democratic contenders -- Daschle, Dodd, Kaine, Sebelius -- who Obama clearly trusts more.

Bayh or Biden Or...

Live Twittering

Traveling to Denver (through MSP -- don't ask), so I'll put the twitter badge up in order to stay connected.

Marc Ambinder's Live Twittering

Obama Picks VP; Won't Say Who

The big tease. He says he knows who he's going to pick. Won't say whether he's informed the pick. Says the person will "push against his preconceived notions" and would be independent.

McCain Prepares Rezko Ad; Wright "Now Fair Game"; GOP 527 Attacks

Sen. John McCain's campaign is finishing a hard-hitting television ad highlighting Barack Obama 's ties to shady Chicago land dealer Tony Rezko, the one-time Obama patron who was convicted earlier this summer of fraud.

A campaign official said that the decision to Go Rezko was Obama's. "He's opened the door to this," the official said.

The ad will be released to network news divisions in time for their broadcasts tonight.

Though McCain is widely perceived to to drawn first blood by attacking Obama's character, the official said that the difference between Obama's mocking McCain for his wealth and his shaky answer on the number of homes he owns was that McCain's charge "reflects an existential reality," where Obama's charges "attack Cindy. She owns the homes. I thought he said the wives were off-limits."

McCain strategists hope that Obama's brass knuckles punch doesn't work. "Americans don't like this class warfare stuff," the official said. They aspire to be rich, the official said. They don't aspire to eat arugala or hang out with celebrities.

Earlier in the news cycle, McCain's press team invoked Obama's friendship with a former member of the Weatherman, William Ayres, and an official said that even Obama's former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, "is now fair game." The official declined to say whether the campaign was contemplating running an advertisement linking Obama to Wright.

McCain also released a second web video mocking Obama as "The One."

A group called the American Issues Project said it launched a 2.8 million television ad buy highlighting Obama's ties to Ayres. The group calls itself "an organization representing a coalition of activists committed to raising conservative issues both during and after the election." It includes longtime Republican activists like Ed Failor, Jr. of Iowa. Failor was a McCain adviser in the state. The ad will air in Ohio and Michigan. Here's the script:

Narrator:

"Beyond the speeches, how much do you know about Barack Obama?
What does he really believe?

Consider this:
United 93 never hit the Capitol on 9/11.
But the Capitol was bombed thirty years before -

By an American terrorist group called Weather Underground that declared 'war' on the U.S. -

Targeting the Capitol, the Pentagon, police stations and more.

One of the group's leaders, William Ayers, admits to the bombings, proudly saying later:

'We didn't do enough.'
Some members of the group Ayers founded even went on to kill police.

But Barack Obama is friends with Ayers, defending him as, quote,
'Respectable' and 'Mainstream.'
Obama's political career was launched in Ayers' home.
And the two served together on a left-wing board.

Why would Barack Obama be friends with someone who bombed the Capitol...and is proud of it?

Do you know enough to elect Barack Obama?

American Issues Project is responsible for the content of this ad."

Traveling to Denver (through MSP -- don't ask), so I'll put the twitter badge up in order to stay connected.

Marc Ambinder's Live Twittering

Who Has The Cooler Podium? -- SUSPENDED

This vote suspended until I get an official picture of the DNC podium...

The GOP...

Or the DNC?

(image courtesy of Reuters)

APSAlutely

Eminent political scientist John Pitney e-mails:

:

Why doesn't APSA meet in a national party convention city the week before the convention? Two reasons:

1. APSA schedules its annual conferences long before the parties schedule their conventions. See:

2. During the week before the party convention, staffers and other convention people take up a fair number of hotel rooms. In most cities, there would not be enough space left over for APSA, which draws about 7,000 attendees.

Fine. That explains, but doesn't really excuse, from an institutional point of view, the idea that, in politics, theory and practice could not be more alienated from each other.

After Springfield

Per the campaign: Obama's in Eau Claire, Wisconsin on Sunday, the Quad Cities area in Iowa on Monday, Kansas City, Missouri on Tuesday, Billings, Montana next Wednesday.

No Indianapolis....

Meanwhile, the RNC and McCain campaign announced plans to bracket the Democratic National Convention. They're sending Rudy Giuliani, Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney to Denver and calling the Dems' festival "Mile High and an Inch Deep."

Maybe Obama's Just Sticking To Plan

Here is the Obama campaign's perspective on the summer, as suggested by a plugged-in reader:

When you look at it up close, it appears that McCain has Obama on the ropes these days, and Obama's taken a month to really start responding. Looked at from a distance, though, it appears that the Obama campaign always had a very specific plan and timeline, and nothing that McCain has done has really altered it.

Obama wrapped up the nomination, gave some tough speeches about McCain and foreign policy, then went to Iraq, Afghanistan and Europe, then went on vacation while the stump speech and the message were re-tooled to be more economically populist and also more aggressive against McCain's economic statements/policies.

This hasn't happened because McCain has been attacking; this seems to have been a deliberate strategy, one that could have been easily predicted in advance.

So, rather than allow himself to get sucked in to a lose-lose dynamic during the summer, where he and McCain could hack each other to pieces while making no appreciable gains, the campaign decided: the summer is for shoring up the foreign policy/national security cred. The fall (beginning with the convention, and going through November) is all about the economy. Now, poll-wise, it's true, Obama made no appreciable gains, but I'm sure they feel that the foreign trip was was absolutely vital to the campaign, and the summer was the only time such a trip would make sense. He had to go. I'm sure they anticipated taking some small hits in the polls, especially with the trip and with Obama's vacation, where McCain had the campaign trail to himself. Now, it's campaign season.

Elephants Sometimes Forget

And the DNC calls John McCain "forgetful" in its latest release, entitled: " McCain's Abodes: A Luxury Travel Guide for the Rich, Famous andForgetful."

Worse Than A Scanner Moment?

Or maybe...

This'll be tough for McCain because our current economic situation is so directly tied to the housing crisis.

Maybe McCain isn't thought of as "rich," but it doesn't take a whole lot of persuasion to convince people that he doesn't have a feel for what's going on with the economy.

I'd say that 99% of Americans know exactly what their mortgage rate is each month, not to mention how many homes they own. (McCain does not have a mortgage.)

It fits perfectly into Obama's out-of-touch Washingtonian versus new ideas for today's world frame.

And it's tailor made for late night comedians, campaign media moments, and nonstop mockery from Obama from now until November.

McCain Is To Houses What GWBH Was To Grocery Store Scanners?

Says an Obama aide: "It's his Bush grocery scanner moment - but far worse."

Maybe. But President Bush's dalliance with a pricing scanner was caught on videotape, and McCain's comments weren't, although Politico plans to post the audio later today.

Also: the word "John McCain" means a lot of different things, but rich isn't one of them. So Obama and the Democrats must use this moment to convince Americans in real time to think differently about McCain. That's one reason their new ad airs on national cable. Cable ads aren't persuasion ads; they're agenda-setting ads.

If McCain's gaffe had been somehow age-related, then they'd have an easier time. The groundwork for the impression already exists.

(Although... Obama's team does accuse McCain of not being able to "remember" how many houses he has...hmm.)

New State Polls In Nevada, Minnesota

In Nevada, Obama and McCain are tied (44 for O, 43 for M). Jon Ralston writes that the poll:

Shows Obama up 7 in Clark and dead heat in Washoe. Neither Kerry nor Gore won Clark by that much, although Gore (6.5) came close. Obama probably needs to do slightly better than 7 here to win. Washoe could be key to race.

And in Minnesota, Obama leads by 10, although choosing Gov. Tim Pawlenty as his running mate would help McCain in the state.

Obama v. McCain On In-Touch-Y-Ness

According to CBS News's Maria Gavrilovic, here's what Barack Obama had to say this a.m. about John McCain's too-many-homes-to-count-so-check-with-my-staff comments:

"Now think about that - I guess if you think that being rich means you gotta make five million dollars, and if you don't' know how many houses you have, then it's not surprising that you might think the economy is fundamentally strong!"

"But if you're like me and you've got one house - or you were like the millions of people who are struggling right now to keep up with their mortgage so that they don't lose their home, you might have a different perspective."

By the way, the answer is John McCain has seven homes. So there's just a fundamental gap of understanding between John McCain's world and what people are going thru every single day here in America."

Brian Rogers, a McCain spokesman, immediately e-mailed reporters with a response that evokes some oldies but goodies:

"Does a guy who made more than $4 million last year, just got back from vacation on a private beach in Hawaii and bought his own million-dollar mansion with the help of a convicted felon really want to get into a debate about houses? Does a guy who worries about the price of arugula and thinks regular people "cling" to guns and religion in the face of economic hardship really want to have a debate about who's in touch with regular Americans?

"The reality is that Barack Obama's plans to raise taxes and opposition to producing more energy here at home as gas prices skyrocket show he's completely out of touch with the concerns of average Americans"

Obama Ad Blasts McCain's "Seven Houses"

Don't know where this is airing yet... but talk about a lightning fast turnaround for the Obama ad team.

The tag line: "Here's one house that America can't afford to let John McCain move in to."

Club for Growth "Disappointed" In McCain's Convention Line-Up

Too few "pro-growth" speakers, according to the Club. Here's a press release that just appeared in the in-box:

Washington - With the recent publication of the GOP Convention lineup, the Club for Growth was disappointed to see the absence of the party's most steadfast elected economic conservatives.

With the Republican Party's brand in shambles, it is important for the Party to showcase those leaders who are currently in office fighting to preserve the limited-government, free-market principles the GOP used to stand for.
In the Senate, Tom Coburn and Jim DeMint have waged a two-man war on wasteful spending. In the House of Representatives, conservative leaders like Jeff Flake (AZ-06), John Shadegg (AZ-03), Jeb Hensarling (TX-05), Mike Pence (IN-06), and Paul Ryan (WI-01) have never wavered in their commitment to free-market principles and have been major players in the Republican Study Committee. And of all the Republican governors in the country, Mark Sanford of South Carolina has the strongest record of fighting for limited government and economic freedom.
So why are these Republican leaders absent from the GOP's convention lineup?
"Many of the slotted speakers are impressive leaders in their own right," said Club for Growth President Pat Toomey, "but it is hard not to notice the absence of the Party's most pro-growth elected officials. We hope Senator McCain will broaden the list of speakers and demonstrate his commitment to reclaiming the mantle of fiscal conservatism for the GOP."

No Offense To Political Scientists...

But the gulf between academia and practitioners of politics is very wide. Too wide.

So why the heck would the American Political Science Association hold their annual convention during the Democratic National Convention...

... in Boston?

Want to bridge the gap? Try holding the conference in the same city as a convention...the week before the convention.

A Sign That Obama Is Fighting Back

It's "crunch time," Barack Obama tells Karen Tumulty.

Indeed. There are signs that Obama has taken his gloves off and locked them in a cabinet somewhere, maybe in Hawaii.

The Obama campaign is officially sanctioning an attack on John McCain's wealth and lifestyle -- the first time they've been willing to go there.

The proximate cause is McCain's fumbling answer to Politico about the number of houses he owns. (". "I think -- I'll have my staff get to you")

First, Bill Burton, Obama's national press secretary, e-mailed the story to a list of reporters this morning. Burton included this comment:

This story about John McCain losing track of how many houses he owns is a telling moment that helps to explain why he still thinks "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" and why he offers just more of the same economic policies that we've gotten from President Bush for the last eight years.

Then, the Democratic National Committee followed up, pointing to McCain's inability or unwillingness to define "rich" in terms of income.

The Obama campaign wants voters to get this message: "How can a guy who doesn't know how many houses he owns, or what it means to be rich possibly feel your pain?"

No One Term Pledge For McCain

The Politico quotes John McCain as flatly denying he's considering a one-term pledge. That settles that -- a bunch of McCain advisers had been and have been open to the idea, and McCain, at least two years ago, was, too. Not now.

Does McCain Favor a Draft? Nope.

Liberals are having a conniption over Sen. John McCain's purported endorsement of a draft today.

In Las Crucas, New Mexico, a woman asked McCain about the "horrible conditions" that veterans often see when return from combat. Here's the last few sentences:

My son is an officer in the Air Force, I'm a vet., and I was raised in a military family. And I think it's a sorry state of affairs. When we have illegal aliens; having a medic-aid card that can access specialists, top physicians, the best of medical, and our vets can't even get to a doctor. And these are the people that we tied yellow ribbons for and Bush patted on the back. If we don't re-enact the draft, I don't think we'll have anyone to chase Bin Laden to the gates of Hell.

His critics focus on the first sentence:

SEN JOHN MCCAIN: Ma'am let me say that I don't disagree with anything you have said, and thank you.

So he agrees that unless there's a draft, the war on terror can't be won?

Not exactly. I've heard McCain tell numerous audiences that he opposes a new draft. As the context makes clear, McCain is focusing on the meat of the question and not the woman's exclamation at the end. Unless you think McCain privately favors the draft and let the cat out of the bag, you're going to have reach to conclude that he's radically changed his mind here.

McCain: I'm grateful for all of our veterans. I carry with me quite often a quote from General George Washington in 1789. He said, "The willingness with which young Americans will serve their country in future wars is directly related to the treatment of those who have previously served and sacrificed in conflict." He was right in 1789 and he's right today.
All too often our veterans do not receive the care that they have earned, and the scandal of Walter Reed is a blot on the honor of the United States of America and we can never let it happen again.
Now here's what.. I'll make this as short as possible, our veterans have earned our highest priority. And yet we know that there is also routine health care needs that veterans have that in my view, they should not have to go to the VA to receive. OK?
We have tragically and unfortunately in this war a dramatic...well, we're going to have a lot of PTSD. We also have severe combat injuries. Because thank God, we're able to get the wounded from the battle field to medical treatment more quickly than any time in history. That puts an increased burden on our medical, military medical care, as well as our VA.
So, you mentioned Albuquerque VA I believe. I could take you to Albuquerque VA or the Phoenix VA quite often and the waiting room is crowded, the veterans are standing in line to stand in line to get an appointment to get an appointment. That's not the fault of the people that work there. The people that work there are some of the finest in the World. It's just that they're overloaded.
So we have to focus our attention, expand our capability to treat PTSD, combat related injuries, brain injuries, etc. that we're best at. And for a veteran with a routine health care need, why shouldn't we give that veteran a card and take it to the health care provider; or the doctor of their choice and get the routine health care that they need.
That's what...and that way we could utilize the VA and the medical, the military medical, system to it's greatest affect. And also relieve this burden. I don't ever again want to have a veteran stand in line to stand in line to get an appointment to get an appointment. That's not...that's just not acceptable in America. And again, I do praise the people that work there. They're some of the most dedicated people I've ever known in my life. The problem is that there's just not enough of them.

Watch the video here.

Obama's Economic Ideology

It's "pragmatism," he tells the Times's David Leonhardt. But what does that mean? On the side of which Bob (Reich or Rubin) does he come down?

Obama has obviously studied this debate, and early on during the flight to Chicago, he told me a story about Reich and Rubin. The previous week, Obama convened a discussion with a high-powered group of economists and chief executives. He was sitting at a conference table, with Rubin two seats to his left and Reich across from him. "One of the points I raised," Obama told me, "is if you just use you, Bob, and you, Bob, as caricatures, the truth is, both of you acknowledge the world is more complicated." By this, Obama didn't simply mean that their views were more nuanced than many outsiders understood. He meant that both have come to acknowledge that the other man is, in part, correct. The two now occupy more similar ideological places than they did in 1993. The battle of the Bobs may not be completely over, but it has certainly been suspended.

Leonhardt writes that Obama's ideology reflects the developing synthesis in the Democratic Party, one that attends to both the power of market forces and the need for government action to ameliorate the dislocation that forces create. He writes about how Obama was influenced by his association with the University of Chicago. Cass Sunstein " other former Chicago colleagues [Leonhardt] spoke with said they believed that Chicago had helped give Obama an intellectual framework for his instincts, at the least, and probably made him come to appreciate markets more."

The best example of how Obama's ideology will work as president, Leonhardt writes, can be found in his finessing of an emissions cap and trade system.

By last year, Democrats in Congress essentially agreed that to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, the government should place a nationwide cap on these emissions and then issue tradable permits giving companies the right to produce them (thus the term "cap and trade"). Most Congressional bills envisioned giving away many of the permits to power companies. Economists, by and large, considered this giveaway to be the worst part of the plan. It would require Congress to decide how many free permits each company should get and would set off a frenzy of corporate lobbying.

The alternative was to auction off the permits -- to let the market set their value. "If you don't auction 100 percent of the permits," Goolsbee told me, "this could be one of the biggest pieces of corporate welfare ever." With Congress making the decisions, the power companies with the best political connections might get the permits. With a full auction, the permits would end up with companies willing to make the highest bids. Presumably, these would be the most efficient companies, the ones able to produce the most energy (and profits) for a given amount of greenhouse-gas pollution.
The auctions would have another big advantage too. They would raise billions of dollars for the government, money that could then be returned to taxpayers to offset the higher energy prices created by the emissions cap.
It seems likely that a President Obama would sign a cap-and-trade bill even if it did give away some permits. But candidate Obama has at least moved the debate toward a more pro-market solution.

New NBC/WSJ, CBS/NYT Polls

These are two of the best polls in the business, and they're remarkably similar. Obama leads by three, within the margin the error. Obama's favorables have declined over the summer. Clinton supporters remain skeptical and even give McCain an edge in certain attributes.

The CBS poll says that independents are beginning to lean more toward McCain. Also: white men. And twice as many women are undecided.

John McCain is running a negative campaign. That's the conclusion of ... wait. Just 29% of voters? Probably all Democrats. But a record for recent history.

Still: the environment favors Obama.

A whopping 60 percent say it's time to have a president who will focus on progress and moving America forward, compared with 35 percent who would rather have a president who focuses on protecting what has made America great.

And voters see McCain as way too close to President Bush.

No Arnold?

At the Republican convention?

He hasn't accepted an invitation to appear just yet...

On Those National Polls

The Obama campaign has two disadvantages when it comes to spinning reporters about poll numbers.

One is an us-versus-the-establishment mentality that has, at times, served to protect the campaign from the ill-winds of fashionable opinion: last summer, the national press all but wrote Obama's obituary. He wasn't making clean contrasts with Clinton, they -- we wrote. He was too cautious. His campaign was too personality-driven. Too few people surrounded him. And then events proved the press wrong.

So when the establishment begins its quadrennial carping about strategy, the inclination among many Obama advisers is to simply ignore it. Or blame the press. "You guys," as one senior Obama adviser put it to me.

The second is that, from the top down, campaign advisers simply haven't looked at national poll numbers as a proxy for success. They didn't during the primaries, they didn't this spring, and they aren't now. (Image what Democrats would say if Hillary Clinton were entering her convention tied. "She's squandered her lead! She's going to lose it all!" That Democrats aren't saying that -- yet -- is testament to the faith they have in Obama's agility.)

But numbers are numbers. Reliable national surveys, from Pew to Bloomberg and the Los Angeles Times to tonight's CBS News / New York Times poll, all show a vector. John McCain has improved by a few points. The internally differ as to why, although there are a few common threads. One is that John McCain is doing better among conservative identifiers -- those folks who define themselves as ideological conservatives. They can be independents, Republicans, even Democrats. The reason for this is not terribly clear, but it stands to reason that the success of the surge, McCain's finesse of the gas price issue, and perhaps his posturing against Russia all contributed. The other is that McCain launched a rather nasty negative advertising campaign frontally attacking Barack Obama's character. It worked, to the extent that such a tactic can work. Compounding the type of attack was the timing. I do not think the Obama campaign expected this from John McCain, and certainly didn't expect it to begin while Obama was overseas. Obama's favorable ratings are down.

But think of this development as simply a beachhead growing a few inches taller against a very powerful wave. Eight years of Republicans and President Bush. A Democratic advantage on the economy -- an economy which is not improving. A Democratic GOTV advantage. A Democratic enthusiasm advantage. A Democratic down-ballot advantage. And McCain was always, inevitably going to grow stronger as partisanship set in. A segment of Obama's independent and Democratic vote was an anti-Clinton vote; Obama looked good in comparison to Clinton. Without Clinton, Obama was just a personality. The campaign has struggled to find a way to reset those impressions, and some folks have probably drifted.

McCain has given them something to think about this summer: Obama. And Obama hasn't returned the favor. He hasn't defined McCain in a visceral way, yet. He hasn't demonstrated that he can connect with working class white voters, although voters do find him empathetic enough. He can do both of these at the convention, and there are indications that he's doing the former in states with advertising.

An Update On Indianapolis

A spokesperson for Obama denies the report that Obama will appear in Indianapolis.

And a second, national press secretary Bill Burton will only say: "We're not saying anything about the schedule but that it's not set post-Springfield."

Annotating McCain's Convention Schedule

John McCain's convention team unveiled an outline of his nomination week today. It's a first draft; more speakers will be added later.

The first speaker is not even a Republican. No Republican congressional leaders are speaking. Few current office-holders. Fewer Republican candidates. Many formers. The list is heavy with McCain endorsees and friends. Few ideologues. No Gov. Mark Sanford. No Sen. John Thune.

Monday night -- "Service"

Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn. -- Unless he's VP, he's the first face of the McCain convention. Will he bash Democrats? Repudiate his own party? Or praise McCain's courage.

Vice President Dick Cheney -- Talk about a head-snap for conservatives. But the two speeches ought to be similar.

In primetime: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger -- Does he agree more with Obama than with McCain on most issues?

President Bush and First Lady Laura Bush - In primetime -- although not network primetime. Nice move adding Laura...still very popular.

Tuesday night -- "Reform"

Gov. Tom Ridge -- not being vetted, according to Mark Halperin. Was a stalwart McCain supporter from the get-go.

Gov. John Huntsman, Jr. -- McCain's favorite Utahn.

Former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin -- the McCain campaign had few Republican women surrogates and even fewer Hispanic Republican women surrogates; Marin was one of them.

Sen. Fred Thompson -- until he ran for President, he was making fundraising calls on McCain's behalf. Spoke of entitlement reform in the primaries.

Gov. Linda Lingle -- a moderate Republican

Fmr. Lt. Gov. Michael Steele -- GOPAC's guy, and McCain's top African American surrogate.

Gov. Sarah Palin - a reformist governor of Alaska

Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee,-- He's a great speaker. And a Sam's Club Republican.

Fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani ***KEYNOTER*** -- He was bellicose in 2004 (and effective.) Think results. Metrics. 9/11 hero. Pro-choicer.

Wednesday night -- "Prosperity"

Sen. Norm Coleman -- the only endangered Republican incumbent with a better than even shot at keeping his seat.

Meg Whitman, Ebay CEO -- cited by McCain as a person whose advice he listens to. A future CA gubernatorial candidate.

Carly Fiorina, former HP CEO -- longtime McCain surrogate.

Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney -- A great rah-rah speaker. Will he get a huge pop? Remember, this is a big McCain crowd...

Cindy McCain -- interesting that Michelle Obama speaks Monday; Cindy speaks Wednesday.
VP nominee

Gov. Bobby Jindal, R-La. will speak after the VP nominee -- another man of color in primetime for the Republicans. WIll talk about reform and New Orleans.

Thursday night -- "Peace"

Gov. Tim Pawlenty -- The new face of the GOP.

Gov. Charlie Crist, R-Fla. -- He's owed this spot for his endorsement of McCain. Still a very popular (now pro-drilling) governor of Florida.

Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kansas -- Nominally ran "against" McCain in primaries.

Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla -- McCain was initially angry that Martinez didn't endorse

Sen. John McCain.

Pondering An Indianapolis Event on Saturday

Remember: it is likely that Obama will send advance teams to several states simultaneously. Not to suggest that they're engaging in legerdemain... only that the order of events isn't always clear from the way the advance teams are distributed.

So... don't read Evan Bayh into things just yet.

Putting The Clues Together; Still A Mystery

If Howard Fineman's reporting is correct, and potential vice presidential nominees have been asked to stand by on Thursday afternoon for "the call," then we ought to expect some sort of an announcement on Thursday afternoon before the evening news.

I just don't get the sense that there'll be an announcement on Friday. Something else is happening Friday; not sure what it is. I bet Obama is going to spend the day rehearsing his convention speech and attending to some other business.

It makes sense for Obama to announce his pick a full day before he appears with him or her; that person has to get his or her affairs in order. If that person is a governor of a state, he or she has to implement transition plans. A governor can't just up and leave a state for two weeks even if transition planning has already begun. (I am told that it has protectively begun in Virginia, not based on them possessing any special knowledge, but based on Gov. Kaine's staff being proactive.)

Indianapolis Event On Saturday Too?

Yes, according to the Nashville Post.

NashvillePost.com has learned that senior campaign officials from the Barack Obama Presidential campaign are being dispatched from various locations around the country and are converging in Indianapolis for a "major event" to take place on Saturday.
Saturday is the same day that Obama is expected to make his first public appearance with his yet to be announced vice presidential running mate. Indiana is the home state of Democratic Senator Evan Bayh, widely considered to be on the short list of Democratic vice presidential contenders.
Sources in Denver, the site of next week's Democratic National Convention, say that individuals responsible for Obama's major public appearances have been pulled out of the city and are heading east towards Indiana.

No immediate comment from the Obama campaign. We know that Obama plans a tour of swing states, and Indiana is a swing state, and so we read too much into this at our peril.

McCain: "Testy" Obama's "Judgment" Is What's Bad

Here's John McCain's response to Sen. Barack Obama's patriotism challenge. McCain will say this at the top of his town hall meeting in New Mexico today:

Yesterday, Senator Obama got a little testy on this issue. He said that I am questioning his patriotism. Let me be clear: I am not questioning his patriotism; I am questioning his judgment. Senator Obama has made it clear that he values withdrawal from Iraq above victory in Iraq, even today with victory in sight. Over and over again, he has advocated unconditional withdrawal - regardless of the facts on the ground. And he voted against funding for troops in combat, after saying it would be wrong to do so. He has made these decisions not because he doesn't love America, but because he doesn't seem to understand the consequences of an American defeat in Iraq, how it would risk a wider war and threaten the security of American families. I am going to end this war, but when I bring our troops home, they will come home with honor and victory, leaving Iraq secured as a democratic ally in the Arab heartland.

Graham Emerges As Big Lieberman Backer

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has emerged as a major internal McCain campaign booster of Sen. Joe Lieberman's chances to be the vice presidential nominee, Republican sources said.

Graham has spearheaded an effort to gauge the precise damage that the selection of the pro-choice hawk would cause. He hopes to prove that the benefits would outweigh the drawbacks. Graham is one of McCain's closest friends.

A month ago, a senior adviser to Lieberman put his chances of appearing on the ticket as "less than two percent." Those odds have changed.

The very obvious trial balloons floated by McCain advisers have struck some Democrats and Republicans as a ruse in order to artificially depress expectations. Some campaign advisers agree, but others think that it is real.

The Politico's Jonathan Martin reports that Lieberman staffers appear to be conducting an internal vet.

Graham and Lieberman left yesterday to visit Georgia, Polard and the Ukraine.

A Graham spokesman did not immediately return an e-mail seeking comment.

Your VP, Senator. What Will "He" Be Like?

Sen. Barack Obama usually describes his vice presidential nominee with two pronouns joined by a conjunction... "he or she." Tonight, in North Carolina, according to CBS News's Maria Gavrilovic, Obama was gender specific.

Answering a question about his vice presidential criteria, he said:

Let me tell you first what I won't do. I won't hand over my energy policy to my vice president, without knowing necessarily what he's doing. I wont have my vice president engineering my foreign policy for me. The buck will stop with me, because I will be the president. My vice president, also by the way my vice president also will be a member of the executive branch, he won't be one of these 4^th branches of government where he thinks he's above the law. But here's what I do want from my vice president, I want somebody who has integrity, who's in politics for the right reasons, I want somebody who is independent. Somebody who is able to say to me, 'you know what, Mr. President, I think you're wrong on this and here's why' and will give me (applause) who will help me think through major issues and consult with me, would be a key advisor. I want somebody who is capable of being president and who I would trust to be president. That's the first criteria for vice president. And the final thing is I want a [vice] president who shares with me a passion to make the lives of the American people better than they are right now. I want someone who is not in it just because they want to have their name up in lights or end up being president. I want somebody who is mad right now, that people are losing their jobs. And is mad right now that people have seen their incomes decline, and want to rebuild the middle class in this country. That's the kind of person that I want; somebody who in their gut knows where they came from and believes that we have to grow this country from the bottom up.

The italics are my own.

More On Denver's Weather

From a smart reader named John:

FYI, Denver has low humidity, and an 84 deg there is nice and
pleasant. Not like the DC area.

Also,

Q: What's the difference between isolated and scattered thunderstorms?

A: The National Weather Service expresses the probability of
measurable precipitation (0.01 inch) for a given location using
percentages and terms such as isolated and scattered. Isolated means a
chance of precipitation of less than 30% and scattered is used for a
30% to 50% chance. Likely describes a probability of 60 percent or
greater.

What this means is for the Denver area next Thursday, there is a
30-50% chance that a thunderstorm will occur in one location at some
point during the day -- which means it is still highly unlikely at any
given time. Also, from initial buildup to dissipation of a
thunderstorm averages only 45 minutes - so at worst, a rain delay.

Oh, and one last thing... predicting 10 days out? Most likely the
forecast will change.

Still, there was that guy praying for rain...

Here's The Obama Ad Democrats Have Been Waiting For

(1) The Obama campaign pre-announces it, which means that allies and supporters know that it exists, which is good for morale.
(2) It's on taxes, and it raises a powerful point: Obama's tax cuts are deeper for more Americans than John McCain.
(3) The contrast-pivot message is clear: McCain would give oil companies a huge tax cuts (misleading -- he's cutting the corporate tax which would give every company a tax cut...Obama's also open to cutting the corporate tax rate but he'd impose a windfall profits tax on oil companies) --- and Obama'll cut taxes on the middle class.
(4) Shades of Bill Clinton in 1992....

Scattered Thunderstorms And Hot.

The forecast for next Thursday....

Obama: What We Know And Don't Know About Timing

(A) Obama's going to have to make the pick by Saturday afternoon. I originally reported that it'd be the first appearance with his ticket-mate. Then my sources got skittish and weren't so sure. The Obama campaign wisely let me stew in my own confusion and would not confirm to other reporters what I had reported. I still think that's it right, but I don't know for sure.

(B) I don't think Obama's going to announce the pick on Friday. Why? Because it's Friday. Why would you announce a pick on Friday?

(C) The best day to announce the pick would be Thursday. That'd let the nominee have a day to prepare for Saturday's speech. BTW: Are people going to watch the Olympics on Saturday? Or Obama's kick-off.

(D) Obama is scheduled to be in Virginia on Thursday.

(E) Announcing has several parts to it:

I. Obama calls his pick.

II. Obama calls the folks he didn't pick.

III. Someone tells Joe Rospars who the pick is, and Rospars sends out text and e-mails.

IV. The pick is "announced."

(F) The aftermath has several parts, too.

Hit one: the media confirms the pick and broadcasts it.

Hit two: the pick makes a short statement outside his or her home.

Hit three: Obama makes a brief statement about the pick.

Hit four: Obama and the pick make their first appearance together.

Who Will Obama Choose?

Reader E-Mails: Dayton And McCain's Pro-Choice Ruse?

Reader JT:

I'm from Dayton, although I live in Cincinnati now. I'm watching McCain camp's decision to unveil their veep nominee in my hometown with great curiousity.

Montgomery County, of which Dayton is the seat, is a mostly Democratic area and has gone Democratic in the last two Presidential elections. Having gone through almost a decade of plant closings and a rise in crime and homelessness, Dayton was also recently named one of America's fastest dying cities.

In 2004 I was a volunteer for John Kerry, and worked at his huge campaign rally on October 19th in Dayton. He spoke right downtown at our minor league ballpark, Fifth Third Field, and drew over 10,000 people.

John McCain is choosing to have his event at the much larger Nutter Center, a basketball and concert venue inconveniently located way north of town, on the Wright State University campus. I can tell you that those of us in Dayton and the more conservative Cincinnati are wagging our tongues, thinking there's no way in hell McCain is going to get 10,000 people to turn up at that event, veep or no veep. At any rate, 10,000 people could make the 12,000-capacity Nutter Center look cavernous. Why not choose a smaller venue?

After all, Dayton has been chosen as a Veep Reveal Site before... in fact, just four years ago. John Kerry chose Dayton as the second city to see his new VP nominee, John Edwards, on July 7, 2004. I was there, too.

I'm more than a little confused about McCain's choice of Dayton to repeat Kerry's reveal in 2004. The far more conservative Cincinnati would've made more sense... Dayton is not McCain Country, of that I can assure you.

Reader MB:

I keep seeing or hearing media reports that McCain is considering tapping a pro-choice vice president, and I've seen you post to this effect a number of times. But I can't help but wonder whether this isn't orchestrated for another purpose. There are two possible reasons why the McCain campaign is floating this idea: one, he's seriously considering the idea, or two, he wants us to think he's seriously considering the idea.

I don't believe for a second that it's the former because I think there are some pretty strong political reasons to think it might be the latter, and I just can't see McCain, who has real troubles with his base, angering them leading into the convention. Why would you rile up the nasties right before you're in a room with all of them? You wouldn't. But, what if you were about to choose a pro-life zealot like Eric Cantor, or even a standard-bearer like Romney, and were worried about how it would appear to the middle? Wouldn't you want a little press leading up to the announcement that suggested you were thinking in the middle? McCain faces real opposition from folks at NARAL and other pro-choice organizations, but he is lucky that most of the public thinks he is FAR more moderate than his voting record or even his own statements suggest. Call it "maverick warm-glow." He has done a marvelous job of keeping these fires burning. Likewise, by floating these rumors of a pro-choice candidate, when he comes around and chooses someone in the Republican fold, it's as if he crumpled to their demands, and the base feel like he listens to them. This is not crazy talk!

LAT/Bloomberg: Race Tied, McCain Won The Summer

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the Obama has woken up to the troubles that afflicted them this summer... but a new Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg poll out tonight confirms it.

Obama's favorable rating is 48%. It was 59% in June. His unfavorable rating is up eight points. McCain has roughly the same ratings.

Still: despite everything, more than 60% of voters think Obama would do well in an international crisis. And independents favor Obama.

Hillary Alums Think Biden's The Pick

Members of a restricted Google group set up by and for alumnae of Sen. Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign believe that Sen. Joe Biden will be their party's vice presidential nominee. A few hours ago, Denise Feriozzi, who served as Clinton's Iowa field director, asked the group who they thought Obama would pick and why. It's not clear how many alums participated, but here are the results:

Gore Gets Convention Speech

He'll speak from Invesco field on Thursday night, according to a DNC release, along with Gov. Tim Kaine.

No time just yet...

Also: Sen. John Kerry is expected to speak on Wednesday.

A Socratic Dialogue About The State Of The McCain Campaign

Crane: I'm getting worried. I know you told me not to worry, but I really can't help it.

Schmidt: What worries you?

Crane: I just think we had a lucky coupla months. I worry what's going to happen when people who don't look like our candidate...you know... younger people... start to pay attention.

Schmidt: We've righted the ship. We've closed the gap. We've succeeded in making this race about Obama. We've browbeat the press into a bit of submission. We're so good, in fact, that our advance guys are driving people nuts by insisting on their own backgrounds and even their own stage catwalks. It's all good now.

Crane: And we're still behind.

Schmidt: We're within the margin of error.

Crane: Obama has had an awful month, and we're still not able to beat him. Maybe Americans need to learn more about John McCain?

Schmidt: Americans know John McCain. He's been a national political figure for years.

Crane: No, they know Barack Obama. He's been in the headlines for 16 months. They know his basic story. Look, we've been lucky that the Obama campaign has been too nice to us. Lucky that they haven't really started to pound on our guy's character. They haven't turned him into a Republican yet.

Schmidt: They've tried to do that, and it hasn't worked. Americans get that the next president is going to be a change agent regardless of who it is. They know John McCain enough to know that it's absurd to equate him with George W. Bush (even though, on economic policy, I gotta admit.. I'm kind of surprised that we haven't been able to figure out a way to finesse this... ) ... let the Obama campaign try and make this race about John McCain and George Bush. Americans know better. The charge isn't credible. It won't stick.

Crane: They haven't put millions of dollars behind the charge yet. That's why it hasn't worked. If Americans learn what type of ties McCain wore... how many houses he owns...

Schmidt: You're talking like a liberal Democrat. Let's look at the fundamentals again. A few months ago, we had no field program. We had a joke of a field structure. Now, we have the party's best field guy, Mike DuHaime, working 24/7. He's definitely got us up to speed, if not with Obama then with the basics: precinct captains, microtargeting, metrics-based field reporting.

Crane: We're doing better. But the fundamentals I'm looking at aren't good. Item: Obama's voters are much stickier and much more enthusiastic than McCain's.

Schmidt: counter-item, Crane: McCain's getting more Republicans than Obama's getting Democrats.

Crane: That's a common pattern. And the point is that McCain could lose Republicans more easily than Obama could lose Democrats. Item number two: all the polls suggest that McCain is doing a little better among weakly partisan Republicans. Fine. They were going to vote for him anyway. But he is not increasing his share among independents, and he is not gaining votes from the type of voters he needs. He's basically doing the old Base Two-Step: Bringing your folks around and suppressing, temporarily, what Obama's able to take from the middle. This strategy can only take them so far.

Schmidt: After the conventions, McCain will shift gears a bit. Look, he HAD to make this race about Obama. He HAD to stop Obama's momentum. He's done that. Now, he can move on.

Crane: So you're saying he's going to rediscover his inner maverick? Maybe... make a pro-choice pick?

Schmidt: Ask Mike Allen. But in general, this summer has been about raising doubts about Obama, and it's worked.

Crane: I don't agree. Ron Brownstein's latest Atlantic piece raises a good question...actually, John Weave...

Schmidt: HE WHO MUST NOT BE NAMED.

Crane: Whatever. He who must not be named wondered what type of presidency a Democratic Congress could expect from McCain if McCain wins the election by trashing Obama.

Schmidt: McCain hasn't alienated independents yet. The polls show that.

Crane: Maybe they're not paying attention. What is McCain's rationale going to be after the convention? Ok, so Obama is defined. But what's McCain going to do? How's he going to fix things? His tax cut plan is a total joke. Democrats are never going to agree to it, and they're going to HAVE to agree to everything McCain wants to do.

Schmidt: Look, Obama is the challenger here. That's a very important advance. We're running ads now casting McCain as the "true maverick," saying he'd take on big oil and the rest. We're moving to a better-defined position.

Crane: McCain is kind of the incumbent here. He's basing his campaign on trashing the change agent challenger. That didn't work for Jimmy Carter in 1980. It didn't work for George H.W. Bush in 1988. It didn't work for frikkin Mario Cuomo against George Pataki in 1994.

Schmidt: It worked for George W. Bush in 2004

Crane: And 2008 is so different. Remember at the Republican in 2004, when speaker after speaker was so proud of the fact that Bush was going it alone in the world... they reveled at America's being a go-it-alone revel. And now, that sort of talk is gonna get your mouth washed out with soap.

Schmidt: The way to win an election hasn't changed

Crane: Well, Mark Halperin didn't even mention Obama in his...

Schmidt: Never mind that. The way to win an election hasn't changed. They're about contrasts. They're about dividing your opponent's base. They're about a mix of the dark arts and the light arts. And they're not for lilly-livered wimps. One of the best things that we've been able to do is to convince McCain that he can be a maverick without acting like a referee. McCain has changed a lot. He used to hate the idea of the Secret Service. Now he doesn't seem to mind those staged rope-line encounters at all. He used to love mixing it up with the press. Now, he has contempt for his press corps. He's beginning to act like a guy who knows wha the has to do to win.

Crane: I...

Schmidt: You know, at the beginning of this campaign, a lot of Republicans wondered whether McCain would have the stomach to fight a political fight. He's proven them wrong.

VP Watch: A "Big Yawn"

A reader's mother:

"I was the Bruce Springstein concert [Monday] night and Kaine and his wife were sitting no more than 5 rows away from me all night with their kids. Seemed like a strange place to be if you are going to be named Vice President candidate in a couple of days. He had a bad day yesterday- big budget deficit projected. At one point, I looked up at him and he had a big yawn."

Hotel Rooms Still Available In Denver, Minneapolis

Check here for Denver.

And here for Minneapolis.

Obama To Appear with VP in Springfield

It's now official: Barack Obama's ~~first appearance with his~~ will appear with his vice presidential choice will be in Springfield, Illinois, at noon CST on Saturday, according to an Obama aide.

I'm fairly certain it'll be his first appearance with the pick, but not 100% sure.

That means that the official announcement will probably come the night before in the form of a text message to supporters. Maybe it'll come that morning.

As always, all reporting on this comes with a caveat: things could change.

Of the Springfield event, an Obama spokesman said: "It's the kickoff of our trip into the convention." From there, on to unspecified swing states, and then to beautiful Denver.

Ohio Plan Advances In RNC Rules Deliberation

It's an article of faith among Republicans that regardless of whether John McCain wins the election but especially if he does not is that a civil war will begin within the party. The first shots have been fired in the international deliberations of the RNC's rules committee, which is debating the party's calendar for 2012.

Several plans are circulating, and conservatives, more so than moderates, are acting strategically. They're massing support for the so-called "Ohio plan." It has carrots for New Hampshire and Iowa, recogizing their early status. But it gives small states more power. Beginning in late February, a "pod" of smaller states will hold their contests. Two weeks later, a "pod" of larger states would get to go, followed by other pods every three weeks. Blind selection will determine the identity of the states within each pods, and states that don't go early in 2012 will probably get to go early in 2016. (New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada would still get to go early.)

Big states don't like the Ohio plan because it gives smaller states a bigger voice, earlier on. More liberal Republicans don't like the Ohio plan either, although, in theory, smaller, liberal eastern states would get more influence under that plan than they would under the current rules.

An alternative proposal, offered by RNC members from Texas, would move the "window" to March. Contiguous states would hold regional primaries, one per month, in March, April and May.

Committee watchers say that the Ohio plan could pass at the convention. McCain insiders have been neutral so far, only expressing the preference that New Hampshire and other early states get to keep some privileged role.

NB: RNC watchers report a a movement by a coalition of Iraq vets to get voting rights in all state delegate selection processes for active duty. In addition to its own merits, it'd be a kind of a 'put your money where your mouth is' plank in the platform language. Reports a Republican: "The fact that the Dem platform and Dem rules say nothing about vet voting rights is a nice contrast."

Remember Why Biden Ran For President

Remember, the whole point of Sen. Joe Biden's presidential campaign was to set up contrasts with other candidates -- especially Obama -- on the experience issue. He once said of Obama, ""Having talking points on foreign policy doesn't get you there."

Check his stump speech to see how many times Biden would say that American needs a leader who was ready from day one. And he wasn't referring to Hillary Clinton...

Here's Biden on January 1:

"Do I believe this man or woman is capable of dealing today with the crisis in Pakistan? Do I believe that the person I'm looking for is capable TODAY of beginning to to end the war in Iraq without leaving chaos behind. Do I believe that the man or woman I am supporting TODAY understands how to begin to rejuvenate this economy?"

Later, he asks whether the person they're voting for "can take on Rudy Giuliani on terror."

Saturday In Springfield

Lynn Sweet reports that the Obama campaign has served the old state capitol grounds in Springfield, Illinois.

For various reasons, I do not believe that Obama will formally announce the nominee on Friday.

So -- the e-mail goes out Friday night, and the nominee and the candidate appear together for the first time in Springfield.

Then they'll go on a biographical tour.

At some point, the VP nominee will have to break off in order to practice for his or her speech and to figure out how to put his or her affiars in order before joining the campaign full-time.

Hints And Rumors

From the "Too Good To Check" dept....

A reader writes: "What about Jack Reed of Rhode Island? A friend there says the town is crawling with Secret Service and government plates. I don't know any better but to trust him."

Me: John Kerry did not tell the Service who he'd picked until he had called John Edwards; the Service did not show up at Edwards's Georgetown home until hours after the pick had been made public. Still... Reed's still in this thing.

A reader sends along this comparison of domain names. Apparently, ObamaSebelius.com and BarackObama.com share the same hosting company.

A Word On Trust; Or, Why John Edwards Still Matters

Early in the spring, Barack Obama asked John Kerry for his advice on the vice presidential selection process. Kerry was too happy to oblige. Choose someone, he told Obama, that you trust completely. Don't expect the process to build trust. Don't choose someone with the expectation that you'll develop a trust.

This was, of course, the lesson that Kerry learned from 2004; he thought he could trust John Edwards; Edwards had promised Kerry that he deserved Kerry's trust; Edwards promised Kerry that he would be his full and complete partner.

It didn't work. And the recent revelations about Edwards personal life make Kerry's advice all the more acute.

In truth, there aren't too many potential VP picks who could be fairly said to have earned Barack Obama's trust. Not Hillary Clinton. Probably not Joe Biden. Not Evan Bayh. How could they? They've spent so little time with Obama, and none on neutral territory, when they have nothing to gain and thus no incentive to modify their behavior.

Michelle Obama, too, has counseled her husband about the imperative to trust the person he picks.

Assuming Obama agrees, it stands to reason that he won't choose someone he does not trust ALREADY.

He trusts Gov. Sebelius. He trusts Gov. Kaine. He trusts Sen. Jack Reed.

Assuming Obama agrees.

VP Items

Item: NR's Rich Lowry reports that the McCain campaign is calling GOP state party officials and sounding them out about a pro-choice running mate.

Item: a Facebook group dedicated to speculation that Obama's choosing Tim Kaine, and he's doing it Thursday. If I were NOT choosing Tim Kaine, what better way to (a) drag out the speculation and (b) show Gov. Kaine that Obama still considers him important than to campaign with him the day before he makes his pick.

Item: Does Barack Obama have a private meeting with Sen. Kaine's staff tomorrow morning?

Item: Who dropped an oppo hit on Evan Bayh?

McCain Pre-Announces The Announcement

What's the wisdom in John McCain's pre-announcing, to conservative-friendly media, the date (August 29) and location (Dayton, Ohio) of your vice presidential announcement?

This week, it splices into the threads of attention that Barack Obama's campaign is sewing ahead of Obama's announcement.

Next week, it ensures that the press pays at least mild attention to McCain.

And most importantly: it helps McCain artificially build a crowd of 10,000 people or more in Dayton, Ohio and the other locales he's taking his VP on tour.

Note that McCain's convention acceptance speech is that next Thursday, on the same night as the NFL season opener.

Why Stay Up Late Tonight?

Only if you like synchronized swimming. If you're waiting for an e-mail from Barack Obama announcing his VP pick, sleep soundly. It won't come tonight.

Springfield, Illinois

wouldn't be a bad place to host a major political announcement..

Poll: Tim Kaine

McSweeney's Tasteless But Amusing Take On Edwards

I find this horrible, tasteless,sad and creative and amusing, all at once.

JOHN EDWARDS

I'm running for president,
The highest office in the land.
Look, I'm right there in the mirror,
Smoothing my hair down with my hand.
I am handsome. Yes, it's true.
And I am wealthy: that's true, too.
But superficial things like that,
Well, they're just not where I'm at.
You see, I care about the poor.
I often fret about their plight.
I adore the way I look
In this smoky barroom light.
(RIELLE HUNTER spots JOHN EDWARDS at the bar and approaches him.)
RIELLE HUNTER

Hi, I'm Lisa.
I mean Rielle.
Will you take me
To a hotel?
JOHN EDWARDS

Well, I never.
I'm shocked and dismayed.
My wife and children
Would feel betrayed.
Plus, there's a special circumstance:
My wife has cancer. It's advanced.
(JOHN EDWARDS's phone rings.)
JOHN EDWARDS

What? That's great.
The hand of fate
Has relaxed its stranglehold.
God's mercy should be extolled.
(JOHN EDWARDS hangs up his phone.)
JOHN EDWARDS

Oh, wait, now she's in remission.
I guess that means I have permission.

VP Watch: Good Tidings

Item: Gov. Kathleen Sebelius will launch Michigan Women for Obama tomorrow on Tuesday. Do reporters have any real evidence that his choosing her is "less likely?" Or, are we just guessing?

Item: Sen. Joe Biden returns from Georgia. Will he give interviews?

Question: was Chris Dodd disqualified by the Countrywide Mortgage questions? Because I hear that vetting of him continued after...

Item: Democratic advance folks being called to Chicago ....

Item: A VP roll-out requires an advance team as big as 20... the candidates, their spouses, the event site, the international media... and then a team that's ready to leave with the VP candidate and his or her spouse. So ... look for large gatherings of Democratic advance folks.

Question: Has the Obama campaign vetted Gov. Kaine's stance on clean coal? They do like his ability to talk about off-shore drilling.... Virginia's economic landscape is "bleak."

Question: What does Michelle Obama think? What type of advice is she giving? Do you think she'd be the type of person who'd say, "Barack, I think you need to pick someone who's going to shore up your national security credentials?" Or "Barack, I think you gotta pick someone you can explicitly trust."

Question: Why are Republicans all of the sudden convinced that Obama's going to pick HRC?

A Socratic Dialogue About The State Of The Obama Campaign

Herein, a fictional conversation between two supporters of Barack Obama's. Call them "Ax" and "Rod." One is concerned about Obama's campaign. The other isn't. I suspect that a dialectic like this is taking place in the minds of many politically engaged Obama supporters right now. Should they panic? Or be patient.

Rod: I'm getting worried. I know you told me not to worry, but I really can't help it.

Ax: What worries you?

Rod: I know it's early. I know we don't know what the tickets will look like yet. And I know that Obama has the money and the staff to really put together a field operation the likes of which Democrats could only dream about. But what worries me is that, in this environment allegedly so favorable to the Democrats, the dream candidate of the party looks as if the wind's been knocked out of him.

Ax: Well, he's doing fine. He's leading or tied in just about every single poll that's come out over the course of two months. He is tied in states like Indiana, for Charlie Crist's-sakes. He has solid, outside the margin of error leads in other states bordering Illinois.

Rod: But he should be doing better. Michael Dukakis was up 17 points before the convention. And I heard this from the mouths of senior Obama campaign operatives. They assumed that he would be doing better by this point.. and did not roll their eyes at talk of a solid lead. True, it was ridiculous for McCain to try and lower expectations and insist that they'd be down 15 points.. but Obama hasn't cracked 50. He wasn't able to crack 50 even when the more weakly partisan Republicans weren't behind McCain.

Ax: Why should he be doing better? Maybe the Obama folks bought some of their own hype, but a solid three point lead in a 50/50 country against a universally known, well-respected war-hero Republican isn't "doing bad." And he's leading in enough states now to be in a great position for the electoral college.

Rod: Maybe the right analogy is that Obama survived the Democratic primaries; he didn't win them. He had an early lead, and he survived until the end; his lead was big enough to overcome Hillary Clinton's comeback. Remember, in almost every state, the undecideds broke for her at the last minute.

Ax: So you're asking: what does it mean that Obama doesn't have an early lead in the general? Will it be like the primaries, when, as the primaries went on, more people voiced their doubts about him?

Rod: Right

Ax: What does a national lead mean, though? It's kind of irrelevant. If you ask: why isn't Obama doing better in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, that's a legitimate question.

Rod: Ok... well, in all of those states, Obama has lost ground to McCain over the past few months.

Ax: I concede the point. McCain's had a good month. He figured out how to finesse the energy crisis in real time. The political class deemed the Surge a success. And the McCain campaign got in the Obama campaign's OODA loop by aggressively attacking him as an effete celebrity when Obama was overseas. And Obama has some ground to make up in these swing states. But this is a temporary phase of the campaign.

Rod: I don't know. In at least six major states, Obama's been on the air for weeks with harsh contrast ads against McCain, and the numbers haven't moved. I forgot to mention: McCain hasn't been on the air at all in many of those states, like North Carolina.

Ax: McCain's gains might be ephemeral. There's no evidence that, of the people who are making up their minds, McCain is getting the lion's share. Certainly, there will always be a group of highly engaged voters whose gut feelings are dictated by the headlines, and to that extent, a swing of a few points in one direction or the other is to be expected.

Rod: But when can Obama change this? When can he get in McCain's OODA loop? Already, the signals we're getting suggest that convention speakers this year will be ordered to go positive and not make contrasts with McCain. The last time that happened, Republicans wound up fronting Zell Miller and Bush got twice the convention bounce that Kerry did. People are angry.. and if they're not angry, they're anxious. They want to know where Obama would take the country and why McCain can't take the country there. And Obama's campaign seems to be obsessed with proving that he's a regular guy....well, he's not. Not because of his name or his ethnicity or anything like that. Because he's a half a term U.S. senator who is suddenly on the public scene. Of course he's not a regular guy. So they should stop trying to force him into that box and should start trying to turn the tables on McCain.

Ax: Well, he's as much of a regular guy as McCain is, and his family is as traditional as all get out. And what Americans do know of him, they like. I don't think the campaign is obsessed with trying to de-exoticize their candidate. I think they're worried about finding a way to connect with irregular Democratic voters about the economy. But I don't think McCain has connected with them either. His tax cut plan is being criticized by conservatives for being too lop-sided.

Rod: Well, conservatives no longer have a problem with McCain. His support among the Republican base has shot up this summer.

Ax: But they're no more enthusiastic than they were. And all this talk of a pro-choice running mate doesn't help matters. But don't worry. I think they partially agree with Paul Krugman, believe it or not. He wrote this morning that "Mr. Obama's failure to achieve a decisive edge on economic policy is central to his failure to open up a big lead in overall polling." The economy's not doing to get better.

Rod: Yeah. I don't think it's the economy. I think it's racism. I think, in a state like Michigan, with 9.7 unemployment in Detroit, a black mayor there with sex scandals, white collar voters casting about for people to blame... I think they look at Obama, don't seem one of them, and don't see how he could possibly fix things.

Ax: And yet: Obama's doing OK there. And in Ohio. And Pennsylvania. He's not losing support. McCain is just getting more support from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Look, you mentioned Michael Dukakis earlier. That was 1988. We've just lived through four enormously polarizing election cycles. Partisan identity is still the biggest predictor of voting behavior. Obama is a new guy to the scene. Why...

Rod: Then why doesn't Obama act like he's fighting? Why does he tell fundraisers that he's going to win? Why is he too cool for school?

Ax: Again - I think that, on some level, he's fighting like hell, spending lots of money on negative ads in battleground states. On a higher level, I think that he came back from Europe determined to be the post-partisan Obama of 2004, the guy who brings everyone together, the guy who bridges differences. He thinks that that's what the American people want.

Rod: Democrats always think like that. And then Republicans outmaneuver them. It always happens that way. Democrats are scared to be Democrats, and Republicans try to scare everyone about Democrats. I thought the party leaned from these mistakes.

Ax: They say Obama's smarter than the average Democrat.

Rod: I hope he is.

More VP Timing Clues

It looks like, as of right now, Barack Obama has a down day in Friday in Chicago.

Thursday is unclear; Wednesday will be spent in Virginia with one, possibly two events.

Who Got To Triantafilou?

Alex M. Triantafilou, the chairman of the Hamilton Co., Republican Party, wrote on his blog yesterday that McCain would be in Dayton, Ohio on August 29 -- the day after the Democratic convention ends -- and was looking for a "big" venue.

"Sen. McCain is expected to host a rally on August 29 in Dayton and is looking for a BIG venue and for a BIG crowd. He'll get it. This is not yet public. I guess I just made it so

That was yesterday.

Today, that sentence has disappeared from the site...

Who put the smackdown on the chairman?

Experience The Conventions, Atlantic-Style

Denver and Minneapolis will be a multimedia, multisensory experience, and I'll try to capture it all. The news, the gossip, the motorcades, the protests, the parties, the media.

Blogging will continue, of course, 24/7.

But in addition:

I'll be Twittering from the convention floor, so sign up here for updates.

Through the magic of QIK, I'll be using my iPhone to broadcast live video from the convention (provided that the frequency jammers don't ruin it). All the videolets will be archived here and streamed live:

Obama's Negative Ads In Colorado

I've given up trying to explain the difference, to me, anyway, between a negative ad and a contrast ad, so from now on, I'll just use "negative ad" to refer to both personal attack ads and issue contrast ads.

As widely noticed, Barack Obama has been running tough contrast ads ... negative ads, fine... in at least a half dozen states. The campaign has taken to not informing the media of their ad buys, on purpose, so as to give themselves a few days or even hours worth of deniability and a competitive advantage. A reader sends along this ad on the economy; it's airing in Ohio and Colorado with just a few words changed.

"How can John McCain fix the economy. When he doesn't think it's broken?"

Vice Presidential Timing Thoughts

So here's what we know right now about Barack Obama's schedule. He's in Florida, then (Martinsville, not Richmond) Virginia on Wednesday (sted Thursday) and then tentatively he is scheduled to return home to Chicago. Weird for a middle of a week... The campaign is silent on what will happen after that.

If McCain wants to nominate a pro-choicer, he'd probably do so soon -- as in, this week, or next week. That way, delegates wouldn't arrive in Minneapolis as angry.

If Obama wants to hold the suspense of the press corps and the country, he'll probably wait until the convention itself -- maybe the weekend before, maybe the Sunday before.... maybe during the convention. Particularly if the pick is a big name.. a name that will generate excitement, he'd be wise to wait.

I just had an unusual feeling....

Biden To Georgia

John McCain sent his buddies. Misha S. requested Joe Biden. Biden has more juice than John McCain right now.

So if Obama chooses Biden, the Republicans will say....Ha ha, loudmouth, loose cannon Biden. He's Obama's foreign policy arm-candy. To which Biden will respond, "Bring it. I was in Georgia last week."

Thoughts On Rick Warren's Forum

Who says John McCain fares poorly in these types of sessions? At Rick Warren's forum, he seemed more comfortable and his answers flowed a bit more naturally than Barack Obama's. Granted, the audience was probably more favorably inclined to him. Obama did fine. Penty of humility. And his answer on taxes was as crisp as I've heard.

** Obama got a big standing O. ~~And about half the evangelical crowd seemed to support civil unions.~~ Reader J: "where did u get that half the audience applauded for civil unions?

there was applause but i dont know that it was from anyone other than the 100 folks obama gave tickets to..."

** McCain recounted the story of his secretly Christian gun guard who drew a cross with his foot. He teared up as he recalled it. It's a very effective way of talking about what his faith means to him without having to define his theology directly.

** McCain said he would support a federal marriage amendment to the constitution if and when a federal court overturned a state ban on gay marriage. I think that's new, but his campaign disputes this. (After the jump, the evidence that they sent to me.)

** Three Americans whose advise would be indispensable to McCain: Gen. Petraeus. Rep. John Lewis. And Meg Whitman. (trial balloon?) Obama said he's listen to Dick Lugar and Sam Nunn.

Continue reading "Thoughts On Rick Warren's Forum" »

Warren Forum: "No Gotcha Questions"

Really?

"What Supreme Court justice would you NOT have voted for?"

I mean, it's a good question... but...

(Obama answered Clarence Thomas and Antonin Scala)

Fundraising Bottom Line: McCain Can Relax, Obama Has Some Work To Do, But It Will Pay Off

Obama + the DNC

Raised: 78.7 M (27.7 dnc + 51 Obama)
Cash On Hand: 94.3M (28.5 dnc + 65.8 Obama)

RNC+McCain

Raised: 53M (26 rnc + 27 Mccain)
Cash On Hand: 96M (75 rnc + 21 mccain)

Estimating here, Obama has an additional reserve of about $20 million stored up for the general election. Assuming he spends half of his kitty this month, he'll have around $50m on hand as of August 29. On September 4, McCain get a check from the public till for about $84 million. Assuming he's raised around $15 million this month, he'll be able to spend around $35 million between now and his convention.

It will be be fairly easy for Obama to dramatically increase his totals, assuming that he can rely on his early maxed out primary donors for an immediate primary infusion.

But Obama's $51m last month reflects generosity AND hard work; he spent an inordinate amount of time at fundraisers. After the convention, Obama will be campaigning full-time and won't be able to lend his personal charisma to private fundraisers.

Bottom line to this bottom line: both candidates and both parties will be well-funded, although, if things go right for him, Obama will have a fairly massive cushion.

Great For The Goose, Bad For The Gander

When Factcheck.org criticizes the accuracy of Sen. John McCain's ads, which is has done on numerous occasions, it's.. like a annoying fly that keeps buzzing around the candidate's face. (McCain on August 1: "I don't respond to websites that I have no idea what they're talking about.)

But when it tweaks Barack Obama for exaggerating a point in one of his ads, it's apparently an eminently credible non-partisan fact-checking organization... so suddenly credible, in fact, that McCain's campaign is comfortable borrowing their authority to blast Obama.

The Ideologies Of Audiences For Cable News Outlets, And Other Tidbits

From Pew's latest survey:

Fox viewers identify themselves as: 39% Republican, 33% Democratic, 22% independent

CNN: 18% Republican, 51% Democratic, 23% independent (more Democratic than in 2006)

MSNBC: 18% Republican, 45% Democratic, 27% independent (slightly less Democratic than in 2006...really... I know...even with Keith...)

Other fun nuggets:

** The Daily Show claims the largest percentage of indpenedents in the survey -- 45%.

** Only 34% of the sample said they read a newspaper the day before the survey, down from 40% in 2006. 37% of the public gets their news online. A lot more Americans get their news from a variety of sources. Local TV news appears to be the biggest. Younger folks use social networking sites for news.

** Rush Limbaugh's audience is 72% male; the audience for religious radio is 69% female. Sunday morning talk shows are split 50-50.

** Search engines are used for news; Yahoo is the top news site.

** Go us: readership rates for major national magazines have held steady: "Readership rates for news magazines, national news publications and magazines such as The New Yorker, The Atlantic and Harper's Magazine have remained relatively steady in recent years, as newspaper readership has dipped.:"

Obama "Punch"es McCain On DHL Deal In Chicago

This line: "In Washington, John McCain helped pave the way for a foreign-owned DHL to take over an American shipping company..."

Who said the world was flat?

Party Spending Summarized

Republican party committees outraised Democratic party committees by $60m through the first six months of year, with the RNC's haul accounting for the entire margin. It's a 12% decline. Democratic fundraising is up a quarter.

Two Things To Remember

1. Middle class Americans would get a bigger tax cut under Barack Obama's plan, as even conservatives are beginning to note.

2. McCain's opposition to scuttling the DHL deal had nothing to do with some favored disposition toward DHL and everything to do with McCain's opposition to unnecessary amendments.

Vice Presidential Timing

Despite all the clues .... a mysterious schedule gap on Wednesday, Richmond, VA on Thursday... we really don't know when Obama will announce his choice... don't assume that a big event = announcement.

It's possible that Obama waits until next weekend....

The DNC Platform, Revised.

Here it is.

2008 Democratic Platform by Cmte 08-13-08 (2).pdf

More language on gay rights:

It is not enough to look back in wonder at how far we have come; those who came before us did not strike a blow against injustice only so that we would allow injustice to fester in our time. That means removing the barriers of prejudice and misunderstanding that still exist in America. We support the full inclusion of all families, including same-sex couples, in the life of our nation, and support equal responsibility, benefits, and protections. We will enact a comprehensive bipartisan employment non-discrimination act. We oppose the Defense of Marriage Act and all attempts to use this issue to divide us.

Language on universal health care -- although not the word "universal" -- appears at the very top of the platform. No specific mention of, reference to, a "mandate."

If one thing came through in the platform hearings, it was that Democrats are united around a commitment that every American man, woman, and child be guaranteed affordable, comprehensive healthcare.

The 2nd Amendment

We recognize that the right to bear arms is an important part of the American tradition, and we will preserve Americans' Second Amendment right to own and use firearms. We believe that the right to own firearms is subject to reasonable regulation, but we know that what works in Chicago may not work in Cheyenne. We can work together to enact and enforce commonsense laws and improvements - like closing the gun show loophole, improving our background check system, and reinstating the assault weapons ban, so that guns do not fall into the hands of terrorists or criminals. Acting responsibly and with respect for differing views on this issue, we can both protect the constitutional right to bear arms and keep our communities and our children safe.

Abortion

The Democratic Party strongly and unequivocally supports Roe v. Wade and a woman's right to choose a safe and legal abortion, regardless of ability to pay, and we oppose any and all efforts to weaken or undermine that right. The Democratic Party also strongly supports access to comprehensive affordable family planning services and age-appropriate sex education which empower people to make informed choices and live healthy lives. We also recognize that such health care and education help reduce the number of unintended pregnancies and thereby also reduce the need for abortions. The Democratic Party also strongly supports a woman's decision to have a child by ensuring access to and availability of programs for pre- and post-natal health care, parenting skills, income support, and caring adoption programs.

Just Asking, Just Answered

Reader B:

Didn't Dems and GOPers reach an organizing deal at the beginning of the conference that keeps Senate control in Dems' hands no matter what Lieberman does? Or is that null and void if he's kicked out?

Yes. Yes they did. Had forgotten about that. So... carry on.

Why Don't People Believe That Obama And Hillary Are Getting Along?

They're not the best of friends, they're wary of each other, but they're on the same page... and yet...columns like these proliferate:

Obama blinked and stands guilty of appeasing Clinton by agreeing to a roll call vote for her nomination. That he might not have had much choice if he wanted peace only proves the point that he's playing defense at his own convention.

Nope. The evidence is that no one "blinked," and if you're still looking for a blinker, Clinton blinked and agreed to what Obama had first proposed in June.

A side note: Clinton will campaign for Obama in New Mexico on Sunday.

Just Asking...

If John McCain selects Joe Lieberman as his vice presidential ticket-mate, does Harry Reid kick Lieberman ought of the Senate Democratic conference, thus, potentially, transferring power to Republicans for a few months?

Setting Expectations For The Debate

James Fallows, in his Atlantic cover story on debates, writes:

John McCain is not a good debater, not even by comparison with George W. Bush. Having been in Washington for decades, he knows many issues in detail. Having been in Washington for decades, he often overexplains those details, as Bob Dole did against Bill Clinton in 1996. The exception is the whole field of economics, where through most of the Republican debates, he skated by with allusions to the advisers he would consult.

Worse, he will look and sound old and weak next to Obama. Ronald Reagan was about McCain's current age when he ran for reelection against Walter Mondale, but Reagan looked 10 years younger than McCain does now. Obama is 10 years younger than Mondale was and looks younger still. McCain must hope that he can apply a version of Reagan's line about his opponent's "youth and inexperience." But lacking Reagan's outward haleness, he risks coming across like Dole against Clinton--or, more ominously, his fellow ex-POW James Bond Stockdale, who turned in a notoriously lost- and incoherent-sounding performance against Al Gore and Dan Quayle (!) in the 1992 vice-presidential debates.

McCain also runs the risk of being the first Republican since Dole to go into the debates trailing in the national polls. This would allow Obama to do what George W. Bush did four years ago: nurse a lead and simply try to avoid mistakes. He's had more practice with debates than McCain, and more recently.

In these circumstances, McCain's tactics against Obama are obvious. He will ask for as many debates as he can, starting with informal town halls before either he or Obama is officially nominated. The informal setting shows him off to his best advantage, with the affable bantering that has long made him a favorite with the press. Whoever is behind wants more debates.

Expectations are kind of muddled up. I don't think the media generally expects Sen. Obama to do better in these debates, as his "performances" in the fall were somewhat uneven. And I disagree with Fallows: I didn't think McCain came off as old and weak when standing next to his younger Republican opponents in the fall. Certainly, the generational difference between Obama and McCain will be heightened during televised debates, but McCain just isn't a tottering old man.

And in the second presidential debate, a town hall meeting on October 7 in Tennessee, McCain will be in his element. I've attended roughly a dozen McCain town hall meetings and about a half a dozen Obama town hall meetings; McCain's a natural and knows how to deftly deflect a critical question. Obama's getting much better, but McCain shines.

Even The Evangelicals? "Almost Certainly Not"

Previewing this Sunday's joint appearance at Rick Warren's church in California, the news media is full of stories about young evangelicals, modernist evangelicals, loyalty of evangelicals to the Republicans and other stories predicting, in essence, that Barack Obama has a good chance of outperforming Democrats among evangelicals. Gary "Cold Water" Langer, the polling director of ABC News, thinks not:

Evangelical white Protestants account for about two in 10 Americans, with lopsided voting patterns that give them clout - as in 1994, when evangelicals helped the Republican Party gain control of Congress for the first time in 40 years.
Evangelicals aren't remotely a swing group, but a core Republican one. In 2006, as the GOP lost Congress in a broad anti-Republican surge, 70 percent of white evangelicals bucked the tide and voted Republican, vs. 28 percent for Democrats. In 2004, 78 percent supported George W. Bush, vs. 21 percent for John Kerry.
Before we get to current vote preferences, consider even more basic attitudes. In our most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll evangelical white Protestants were 28 points more likely than other Americans to identify themselves as Republicans (47 vs. 19 percent) and 27 points more likely to be conservatives (57 vs. 30 percent).
Sixty percent of evangelicals say the war in Iraq was worth fighting, one of the few groups in which a majority holds that view. Fifty-four percent approve of George W. Bush's job performance; just 23 percent of other Americans agree.
Seven in 10 call "strength and experience" in the next president more important than "a new direction and new ideas," again among the highest of any group. Sixty-two percent say McCain shares their values; among all other Americans just 44 percent say the same. Just 36 percent say Obama shares their values. Among other Americans, it's 61 percent.

He concludes:

...the gap between evangelical white Protestants and Obama is a far wider and deeper than it is between evangelicals and McCain. Obama's real best hope, and McCain's greatest challenge, is probably not that an unusual number of evangelicals will vote Democratic in November - but rather that they'll just stay home.

Huck's Army Mobilizes Against Pro-Choice Veep Candidate

From an e-mail circulating among supporters of Mike Huckabee...:

HUCKS ARMY ATTENTION! ACTION ALERT!

Express our support for Huckabee and the values and type of leadership we
need to the Republican party leadership.

MI Congressman Fred Upton, from the 6th District, has John McCain's ear.
Fred is McCain's trusted friend and advisor. They are fishing buddies and
have been close for years. It is very important that we contact Fred and
let him know:

WE WILL NOT VOTE FOR A MCCAIN TICKET UNLESS:

1) Mike Huckabee is the VP; or

2) Mike Huckabee is the KEY NOTE SPEAKER at the National GOP Convention

Know that our meetings here in Michigan with McCain prompted this urgent
action--

Romney is being shoved down our throats here, and misinformation about us
is rampant.

In addition, you may know that this also happened at one of the meetings:

"Several in attendance reported to me that Sen. Lindsey Graham seriously
asked if social conservatives would support a vice president who favors
abortion on demand. They were shocked the question even had to be asked,
and alienated that the McCain campaign appears to be even considering it."
--Gary Glenn, Mich. American Family Assn. President

So now, we know what McCain thinks of us and our issues. He is only
concerned with catering to the independent voters. We, who supported Mike
Huckabee, the millions of voters who earned him a 2nd place in delegate
count--are being ignored by McCain. McCain must know that he will LOSE not
only Michigan without us, but the election. At this point, he does not
HAVE US. We've tried repeatedly to reach out to him, and he has ignored
us.

Fred can be reached at: 269-385-0039 or http://www.house.gov/upton/

Ask Fred to carry our voices to McCain NOW. URGENT!!

Obama, Richmond, VA, Next Thursday? Not Necessarily What It Looks Like...

CBS News's Jeff Greenfield and I each have independent Democratic sources who say that an advance team for Barack Obama is in Richmond, VA preparing for a campaign event next Thursday.

To conjecture, of course, would be easy. Gov. Tim Kaine lives and works in Richmond... but
Virginia's a swing state; it's not unusual for Obama to campaign there. Or maybe it's an event for Michelle Obama.

For some reason, I don't think this is IT -- THE vice presidential announcement. It could happen somewhere else... on another day..-- Wednesday -- in another state... and not involve anything related to Virginia. Maybe Richmond is a stop on the vice presidential tour -- a tour that begins elsewhere the day before.

But: unless he's planning a convention week surprise, Obama has to announce his vice presidential nominee next week.

Obama will be in Nevada on Saturday and Florida on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday's schedule is unknown to me at this point.... (ellipses added for emphasis!)

Another potential clue: a Democratic research firm spent part of last week quietly focus grouping the political skills and attributes of Kaine and Gov. Mark Warner last week, two people familiar with the results say.

One of the sources said that the Obama campaign had conducted the tests; the other source would not disclose the identity of the organization conducting the focus groups but did agree to confirm the results.

The sources do not have direct ties to either Kaine or Warner, to the Democratic National Committee or to the Obama campaign.

They said that the focus group was held in a conference room in Norfolk, a city in Virginia's eastern Tidewater region, a huge swing area of the state.

Warner came off well; Kaine did not, with respondents saying that he lacks substantive accomplishments and kisses up too much to Obama.

No comment from the Obama campaign, but even if it was a campaign-connected firm -- pollster Joel Benenson has done regular work in Virginia, perhaps they testing to see whether Kaine or Warner should be featured in television advertisement.

How Obama's Campaign Is Confronting Corsi

Barack Obama's campaign hasn't said much publicly about Jerome Corsi's 2008 polemic against Barack Obama, but don't think for a minute that his aides aren't paying attention, and don't confuse the relative silence for a lack of action. Chastened by Sen. John Kerry's 2004 refusal to respond quickly enough to Corsi and the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads, the campaign is determined to discredit Corsi, quickly.

"We are aggressively attacking the factual errors in this book, and making sure that everyone knows about the deeply offensive things Corsi has said that will give readers of any political affiliation pause and ample reason to question the lies he's written," Tommy Vietor, an Obama spokesperson, said in a statement.

"This book is nothing but a series of lies that were long ago discredited, written by an individual who was discredited after he wrote a similar book to help George Bush and Dick Cheney get re-elected four years ago. This is his attempt to perpetuate those politics for four more years. The reality is that there are many lie-filled books like this in the works, cobbled together from the internet to make money off of a presidential campaign. We will respond to these smears forcefully with all means necessary."

The campaign is quietly shopping around research to anyone who wants it and is encouraging allies to look into Corsi's background. Yesterday, perhaps independently, the New Republic published a list of some of the allegedly bat-dung crazy things Corsi has said or done, and the National Review's Byron York notices a pattern of such stories in mainstream publications.

Outside allies of the campaign are getting involved. Yesterday, the center-left group Catholics United called Corsi out for his comments about the papacy.

The goal is to discredit the man ... with the theory being that if no one thinks the man is or reasonable, no one will pay attention to, or transmit, his messages. Obama aides Vietor, Hari Sevugan, and rapid response chief Christina Reynolds are heading the effort from campaign headquarters in Chicago.

For the most part, the campaign has an ally in the press, which considers the 2004 Swift Boat charges to be thoroughly rebutted and has little reason to believe that Corsi is a credible messenger in 2008. Producers are twinning Corsi's scheduled appearances with Obama defenders. On last night's Larry King Live, liberal media watcher ~~Steven~~ Paul Waldman was recruited to rebut Corsi during Corsi's guest turn, and even King himself was equipped with arrows and video pointing out factual errors.

In 2004, rejecting the advice of some of his advisers, Kerry hesitated to respond to the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth, believing that doing so would give the charges credence. The charges were aimed directly at Kerry's war record. ~~Then~~, Kerry based his convention on his war record and heroism, ~~having~~ and afterwards, never rebutted the negative impressions that the early Swift Boat ads made because, he later said, was hamstrung by public financing.

The Obama campaign has ~~a more sophisticated understanding of the media than Kerry's campaign did,~~ learned from Kerry's experience, of which their back-channel campaign against Mr. Corsi is evidence.

"The idea that you can sit on something and hope it doesn't break through simply no longer applies," an Obama aide said.

Kristol Ball

When you first read Bill Kristol's "reporting" about Colin Powell's "convention appearance," you... ( polls)

Officially Now....

A joint statement from the Clinton and Obama campaigns:

Since June, Senators Obama and Clinton have been working together to ensure a Democratic victory this November. They are both committed to winning back the White House and to to ensuring that the voices of all 35 million people who participated in this historic primary election are respected and heard in Denver. To honor and celebrate these voices and votes, both Senator Obama's and Senator Clinton's names will be placed in nomination.

"I am convinced that honoring Senator Clinton's historic campaign in this way will help us celebrate this defining moment in our history and bring the party together in a strong united fashion," said Senator Barack Obama.

Senator Obama's campaign encouraged Senator Clinton's name to be placed in nomination as a show of unity and in recognition of the historic race she ran and the fact that she was the first woman to compete in all of our nation's primary contests.
"With every voice heard and the Party strongly united, we will elect Senator Obama President of the United States and put our nation on the path to peace and prosperity once again," said Senator Hillary Clinton.
Senator Obama and Senator Clinton are looking forward to a convention unified behind Barack Obama as the Party's nominee and to victory this fall for America.

Obama's New Olympic Ad

Positive, cheery.

AND, unlike the first commercial Obama ran during Olympic coverage, the fact that it is, indeed, an Obama commercial is apparent from the beginning, and not 20 seconds in...

35 Issues, 35 Nights On CBS News

I am about to praise CBS News for an innovation of theirs, and those of you know that I am consultant to their political coverage can skip right on down to the next post, if you want, but I think I would have been drawn to this announcement anyway.

Television journalists are always criticized for focusing too much on style and personality and horse race... And the journalists always complain about finding novel ways to "cover the issues" ... and usually, every cycle, despite the whining, issues aren't covered unless they touch on the political news of whatever say happens to be before the executive producer of the broadcast.

Well, here's an idea: how about... covering the issues?

But...but.. everyone's inner TV producer says... to do justice to an issue would take, oh, four minutes or more, and there are so many issues... and the broadcast is only 22 minutes, and we can't possibly spend that much time on it.

To which the CBS Evening News with Katie Couric responds:... how about 35 separate segments on issues, each six minutes to eight minutes long?

Now -- it's up to the producers and their correspondents to make these segments shine on TV. And I hope CBS still has time for the politics...

But if you buy into old-fashioned idea that the larger news divisions ought to at least attempt to explain what's at stake in elections aside from politics, then onward.

The segments begin after the convention.

Clinton's Name Likely To Be Placed In Nomination; Agreement Near With Obama Campaign

Reports of strife between negotiators for Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama are exaggerated and the two sides are nearing an agreement on how Clinton's delegates will participate in the formal nominating process at the Democratic National Convention, according to advisers to both Democrats.

Although Clinton had resisted pressure from donors, allies and supporters to accept demands to allow her name placed in nomination, she and aides to Obama seemed to realize independently that doing so would be the best way to incorporate and welcome Clinton's supporters into Obama's general election campaign, both symbolically and practically.

According to several people who have spoken with her, Clinton originally believed that if her name were included in the roll call on Wednesday, August 27, she would inevitably wind up with fewer delegates than the 1896.5 she earned from the primaries. That would look bad and could demoralize her supporters.

In negotiations this summer with Obama's campaign, Clinton's team did not ask for Clinton's name to be submitted.

But within the past week, Clinton advisers informed the Obama team that many of Clinton's staunchest supporters felt strongly that something had to be done, and that Clinton had concluded that, in part for the sake of unity, their wishes ought to be respected. They heard back immediately: the Obama campaign had always been open to having her name placed in nomination alongside his.

If Clinton's name is formally offered up, she could be afforded the normal complement of nominating and seconding speeches, and the official role call of votes will include participation from her delegates. (In theory, if enough Obama delegates change their minds, then Clinton could win the nomination. In practice, there's no chance that will happen.)

On August 6, Clinton told donors at a private fundraiser that she thinks "that people want to feel like, O.K., it's a catharsis, we're here, we did it, and then everybody get behind Senator Obama. That is what most people believe is the best way to go."

That sentiment is shared by Obama advisers, even as reports of tension between her aides and Obama's campaign have proliferated in the press. To the contrary, multiple sources in both campaigns have described the negotiations as relatively free of acrimony. Obama's convention managers and his political are acutely aware of the fact that at least 45% percent of delegates were stalwart backers of Sen. Clinton during the primary.

At no point, according to advisers to both candidates, did Clinton use her leverage over her delegates as a bargaining chip, especially because the Obama campaign, aware of DNC rules, had anticipated the inclusion of Clinton in the formal roll call in some way.

The exact choreography has not been worked out.

It is possible that Sen. Clinton, having had her name submitted, would use the occasion to release her delegates to Obama; depending on how the roll call is staged, Clinton's released delegates could put Obama over the top.

Clinton aides also confirmed, and Obama aides did not dispute, that it was Clinton who informed the Obama campaign that she did not to give the keynote address to the convention. It is not clear whether the Obama camp would have offered the honorific, but they did not, sources said, deliberately deny it to Clinton.

Obama's convention spokesperson, Jenny Backus, did not respond to e-mail seeking comment.

In Georgia, Guns Or Butter-In-The-Form-Of-Politicians?

Item: John McCain sends Lindsey Graham and Joe Lieberman to Georgia.

Analysis: I don't think Georgia wants two politicians. I think they want guns and ammo and intel. Although Graham is a reservist, so maybe he can help...

McCain's Open To Pro-Choice Veep; Bloomberg's Stances Disqualifying?

Here's John McCain, in an interview with the Weekly Standard's Stephen Hayes:

Hard to say this was out of context...

"I think that the pro-life position is one of the important aspects or fundamentals of the Republican Party. And I also feel that--and I'm not trying to equivocate here--that Americans want us to work together. You know, Tom Ridge is one of the great leaders and he happens to be pro-choice. And I don't think that that would necessarily rule Tom Ridge out."

It seems that McCain later suggests that being too pro-gay -- among other things -- would make New York Gov. Mike Bloomberg too much to bear.

"I think it's a fundamental tenet of our party to be pro-life but that does not mean we exclude people from our party that are pro-choice. We just have a--albeit strong--but just it's a disagreement. And I think Ridge is a great example of that. Far moreso than Bloomberg, because Bloomberg is pro-gay rights, pro, you know, a number of other issues."

Can one be pro-gay and still be a Republican?

"I really think he was saying that people can differ on one issue and still be a core part of the party, which strikes me as a message of inclusion," a McCain adviser says.

And then there's this.

Who Says Mark Penn Is Finished?

Joshua Green on Evan Bayh's connection to former Clinton strategist Mark Penn.

Catching Up On Polling

Obama widens his lead in Gallup's daily tracking.

Obama has a healthy lead in Pennsylvania, according to a state poll.

Pew attributes a tied race to McCain's recapturing more weakly partisan Republicans and his growing support with white, working class voters.

Insider Advantage's latest telephone poll of Florida shows John McCain with a slight lead over Barack Obama, 48 to 44. Their latest telephone poll of Virginia shows a race tied at 43%. Note that IA includes Bob Barr in their questions.

The Powell Rumors

Drudge channels Fox channeling Bill Kristol channeling rumors that Colin Powell will endorse Barack Obama.

A month ago, Powell told associates that he would stay away from both conventions.

And his spokesperson strongly denies the report.

It's true that the Obama campaign is trying to line up some high-profile Republicans, but I do not think Powell will be one of them. (Update: Either does Powell.)

The Arkansas Shooting: An Update

The chairman of the Arkansas Democratic Party, Bill Gwatney, has died. The tragedy will cast a certain pall over the Democratic National Convention. Mr. Gwatney was a revered figure in the party. (An earlier post misspelled Mr. Gwatney's name.)

What Josh Green Really Thinks About Hillary Clinton....

And other subjects discussed in a podcast I just recorded with the author of The Front-runner's Fall.

Click To Play:

Sebelius Given A Speaking Slot

Item: the Democratic National Convention Committee confirms that Gov. Kathleen Sebelius has been given a Tuesday night speaking slot. Evidence that she won't be chosen as vice president?

Not really. The convention schedulers and Obama's VP team are entirely separate and segregated.

Although... I notice that Gov. Tim Kaine has yet to be given an official slot...

The Shooting In Arkansas

In the United States, in our open republic, party offices and campaign offices are open offices, welcoming volunteers and supporters and enthusiasts. That's the way it should be.

Those of us in political journalism feel a kinship with anyone who makes their living in the world of politics.

My thoughts are with the Arkansas Democratic Party and the family of chairman Bill Gwatney as Mr. Gwatney recovers.

No "Gay" In The Platform

My National Journal colleague Jonathan Rauch notices that the words "gay and lesbian" have been stricken from the Democratic platform.

The verb is used avisedly.

We support full inclusion of ~~gay and lesbian~~ families in the life of our nation and seek equal responsibilities, benefits, and protections for these families.

That's basically what was changed in the draft platform. The 2004 version of that sentence includes "gay and lesbian" ; the 2008 version of that sentence does not.

Indeed, the DNC platform does not mention the word "gay."

The DNC says that the platform due to be submitted to the convention will be released tomorrow morning.

Cindy McCain Gets Gripped A Little Too Hard

A statement from McCain campaign communications director Jill Hazelbaker:

At some point during the rope line an enthusiastic supporter shook Mrs. McCain's hand and exacerbated an existing carpal tunnel condition for which she has had previous surgeries. Out of an abundance of caution, she decided to leave the event and visit the local hospital for x-rays where she was treated for a minor sprain.

Clinton Advisers Debate Wisdom Of Roll Call

Some advisers to Sen. Hillary Clinton have concluded that a roll call of delegates at the Democratic National Convention would not serve her political interests.

They reason that Clinton would inevitably receive fewer delegates than she ended the primary with, which would send an unmistakable signal that her political standing had waned. Clinton herself has been open to the idea in part because many of her donors, supporters and delegates have demanded it. Whether to hold a vote did not come up in negotiations over Clinton's speaking role, Democrats familiar with the subject said.

This view is not universal. Other Clinton aides note that Bill Clinton was ~~generous enough to give~~ did not try to procedurally block Jerry Brown from a roll call vote in 1992 even though Brown had been sharply and personally critical of Hillary Clinton during the primary campaign. Indeed, symbolic roll call votes are regular parts of conventions.

's, if 300 delegates ask for one and she accepts. In practice, Obama would have to signal his acquiescence.

The downside of not doing a roll call is the possibility that unreconstructed pro-Clinton delegates will raise a procedural stink and gum up the convention.

A side note: news that Mark Warner would be the official keynote speaker took some Clinton advisers by surprise. During negotiations with the Obama campaign over her speaking role, the possibility of Clinton's speech being deemed the keynote was floated, according to these advisers, but it was never formally offered.

Huck Supports Recruiting For Anti-Obama Efforts

Here's an e-mail making the rounds of conservative activists. Obviously, any help that Huck's Army provides to John McCain is help that Mike Huckabee can redeem when he -- when he -- runs for president in the future.

------Original Message------
From: hucksarmy@gmail.com
Sender: hucksarmy@gmail.com
To: undisclosed-recipients:;
ReplyTo: hucksarmy@gmail.com
Sent: Aug 13, 2008 11:46 AM
Subject: Call for Volunteers in Key States

The following is an e-mail sent to you by an administrator of "Discussion
Forum :: Huck's Army - Faith. Family. Freedom. [Grassroots]". If this
message is spam, contains abusive or other comments you find offensive
please contact the webmaster of the board at the following address:

hucksarmy@gmail.com

Include this full e-mail (particularly the headers).

Message sent to you follows:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

If you live in one of the states that have been identifed as "swing
states", you are needed for a special project to educate evangelicals about
Barack Obama's positions on important issues and his proposed plans that
would lead our country down the wrong path. These states are FL, OH, MI,
VA, CO.

I know many are still waiting to see what Sen. McCain will do with his VP
pick and how he will campaign going forward, but if you are opposed to
Barack Obama becoming president of the United States and want to help
inform people about him, please join in on this effort.

This is not specifically a Huck's Army endeavor but a joint effort with
some HA members, F3 members, and others. Please reply on this topic:
http://www.forum.hucksarmy.com/viewtopic.php?f=152&t=14307&p=117724#p117724
if you can offer any help with this and I will get you more information.
Thanks!

Ken Neikirk

Action In Georgia

As the New York Times reports today, one of the more perplexing and depressing aspects of the United States' governments' response to the crisis in Georgia is the year's worth of mixed signals sent to Georgia's government.

McCain has an advantage in that, being fluent with the region's politics and having the national stage all to himself this week, he can appear as tough as he wants. But let's rhetoric aside here. It tells us nothing.

What would John McCain do differently? Or have done differently?

Would he promise Georgia's government military help if Russia (re)-crossed the border?

Would he have, as Condi Rice did, urged Georgia not to provoke Russia?

Would he say something in private and something else in public?

These questions can be asked of Barack Obama too....

Shouldn't both presidential candidates be telling us what obligations the United States has toward pro-Western former Soviet states? Specific obligations?

A Virginia-Centric Convention

The selection of ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner to deliver the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention comes on the heels of a secret, last-minute effort to convince Warner to submit his name and record for vice presidential vetting.

Sources close to Warner say that the Virginia Senate candidate was subject to fairly intense pressure by Obama advisers to allow the team of Eric Holder and Caroline Kennedy to open an account and begin their work.

Warner resisted, citing, as he has done publicly, family concerns and his public pledge to Virginians.

It's not clear whether Obama urged his aides to press Warner, but Obama advisers have said in the past that the Democrats' recent success in Virginia -- electing back to back Democratic governors, reforming the state's management, the habit of Republicans and Democrats working together would serve as a model for Obama's presidency.

"Like Barack Obama, Mark Warner is not afraid to challenge the status quo to bring people together and get things moving," Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe, said in a statement this morning. "It's s that kind of spirit and innovation that resulted in his selection as keynote speaker on a night when we will be discussing how to renew America's promise."

The themes will be reflected in convention events: post partisan....results oriented....strong leadership. Evocations of Virginia and cross-over political values will be everywhere, including country music interludes and special appearances by NASCAR stars.

On a deeper level, Obama might well be pressured by Warner's ability to learn from his mistakes and the way he was able to convince Republicans to swallow bitter medicine -- a tax hike -- and leave office with "off-the-charts popularity," as the Washington Post put it.

Obama Leads Among Christians

All types of Christians, according to a poll by the Barna Group, a Christian research and consulting firm. Obama's adviser for religious outreach, Josh DuBois, e-mailed supporters with the findings.

According to Barna, Obama leads among 18 self-identified faith groups including Protestants, Catholics, non-Christians, athiests and agnostics and born-again Christians. McCain leads among evangelicals. Note: these descriptions don't come from those surveyed; the Barna group asks a series of screening questions to get at the definitions of these tough terms.

Born again Christians" are defined as people who said they have made a personal commitment to Jesus Christ that is still important in their life today and who also indicated they believe that when they die they will go to Heaven because they had confessed their sins and had accepted Jesus Christ as their savior. Respondents are not asked to describe themselves as "born again."
"Evangelicals" meet the born again criteria (described above) plus seven other conditions. Those include saying their faith is very important in their life today; believing they have a personal responsibility to share their religious beliefs about Christ with non-Christians; believing that Satan exists; believing that eternal salvation is possible only through grace, not works; believing that Jesus Christ lived a sinless life on earth; asserting that the Bible is accurate in all that it teaches; and describing God as the all-knowing, all-powerful, perfect deity who created the universe and still rules it today. Being classified as an evangelical is not dependent upon church attendance or the denominational affiliation of the church attended. Respondents were not asked to describe themselves as "evangelical."

If current preferences hold, "this would mark the first time in more than two decades that the born again vote has swung toward the Democratic candidate."

Obviously, methodology and question wording are very important here. It's much easier to draw a line between Protestants and Catholics than it is between evangelicals and born-again Christians; many Christians might not subscribe to Barna's definitions. And I'm a little suspicious, just because I'm constitutionally skeptical, about their head-to-head results: Obama leads by 9 points among likely voters with McCain at 34%. Still... food for thought.

Building Supporter Momentum For a Veep Announcement

Another e-mail from Obama campaign manager David Plouffe to Obama supporters:

XXXX--

People keep asking me if we're really going to announce Barack's VP directly to our supporters.

The answer is yes.

Let me be very clear. You are the ones who built this campaign, and Barack wants you to be the first to know who will join him in leading our movement for change.

So, if you haven't signed up to receive an email or a text message, sign up now. Or you can text VP to 62262 from your mobile phone.

Make sure to forward this message to your friends and let them know about this special opportunity.

Thanks,

David

A Dissent: McCain And Obama's Otherness

Reader J.D.:

I also think the supposed dogwhistle white-woman stuff has been overblown, BUT... McCain seems to have been following Penn's advice on running a campaign that portrays McCain as the "American president Americans have been waiting for," which is really the same old thing, and arguably more insidious in today's culture, which has harsh taboos against anti-black racism but openly tolerates racism toward anyone vaguely Muslim or Arabic. it's ironic, because in today's culture, Obama basically has to answer for TWO '"races" (if you consider "Muslim" a race, which i'm sure a working majority of Americans does).

It's dangerous and extremely frustrating to many of us who think this sort of talk has real-world impact on how other Americans who appear foreign (or worse, Muslim) are treated by their fellow citizens, just as Reagan and Nixon gave Presidential permission to many white Americans to go ahead and look at poor blacks as though they're all a bunch of lazy criminals who wouldn't be so poor if only they worked. In short, these kinds of politics are terribly harmful to our national culture, and impede progress for many people on a number of levels, all for the sake of squeezing out a few extra votes. Obviously Barack Obama is going to be fine, as is his family. I think that the passion inspired by many of the dissents you're receiving on this charge is that these types of presidential campaigns have an impact on our culture that's hard to quantify but is certainly real. Politics is politics, and everyone knows it's a tough racket and all that. But for a president or a presidential nominee to signal that Barack Obama is somehow less than American because of his name or his dad's religion or because his mom moved around a lot as a kid...well, it gives a whole lot of people a whole lot of justification to treat their fellow Americans like they don't belong here, sometimes to the point of violence.

So, while the black-white racial politics of McCain's ad imagery is debatable, I don't think there's any question that he's running hard on xenophobia and anti-"terror" anxiety, knowing people already are suspicious of Obama's supposed Muslim ancestry. We should have a taboo in the press and in our politics against demonizing any one race or religion to get votes, but we don't, really. It's sort of looked at as a big game sometimes, with no thought to the 300 million Americans who are paying attention to the cues coming from the people in charge.

McCain's Mystery Meetings Debunked

A reader writes:

Mr. Ambinder,

Senator John McCain is hosting a clandestine meeting at remote restaurants in Aspen this week. While Senator John Edwards is making headlines with his past affair, no one seems to be investigating these activities. As an associate editor and seasoned reporter experienced in covering politics and this Presidential campaign, I thought you could do a little investigating into these events. Regardless of our political dispositions, it is important that these Presidential elections be as transparent as possible and from one journalist to another, that responsibility often falls into the laps of the media.

Thank you for your consideration.

Linsay Rousseau Burnett

He's having a conversation with Walter Isaacson at the Aspen Institute. And he has two fundraisers. His protective poll will be with him at all times. Although --

The Koch family is also hosting most (if not all) of the major conservative philanthropists and think-tank funders out in Aspen this week too. So maybe the fundraisers are with the Koch folks.

"Being Human Is Overrated" -- An Autobigraphy Of A Phrase

Of all the words that Mark Penn was said to have uttered or written during Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, the one that is said to best encapsulate his personality and strategy is "being human is overrated," a reference to a strategy debate about whether Hillary Clinton ought to emphasize her humanity over her command of the issues.

Here's one way the words were portrayed:

A source in the campaign, speaking on background, said that Mr. Penn's philosophy was perfectly represented by a comment he made during one of Mrs. Clinton's debate preps at campaign headquarters in early winter. About 15 staffers were in a room with Mrs. Clinton discussing how she could best respond to a particular line of attack. One of the aides, the source recalled, had an idea.
"I think you need to show a little bit of humanity," said the aide.
Mr. Penn interjected. "Oh, come on, being human is overrated.

Well, here's the origin of the quote. It was in a memo Penn wrote in late 2006. He was referring not to Clinton but to Bill Gates by way of analogy, and he follows up his comment by saying that "connecting with people and understanding their passion is a critical part of leadership.

Read it here:

Lest We Forget, Clinton Didn't Lose; Obama Won

As the political world, on this lazy day, contemplates Hillary Clinton's campaign yet again, bear in mind:

Winning and losing are absolute, but she could have won with her strategy, she did get more actual votes, and with warnings about counterfactuals in mind, any number of different trajectories could have been followed if variables had shifted. We also forget to credit the winner, being so obsessed with host the loser lost. The attribution for Obama's victory ought to be shared with Obama. And historical record is very complex. Even though Mark Penn, Harold Ickes and other Clinton advisers were angling for a re-vote in Florida and Michigan, it took more than a month before the Florida Democratic congressional delegation and the state party would even seriously consider the idea. And in Michigan, Democratic factionalism bottled up any momentum Clinton might have had.

Confidential To B O'M, C.O., Others

You protest: how could I not see racial undertones in McCain's web ads? All those white women lavishing praise on Obama? The specter of black man preying on white women?

Well, the view that McCain hasn't gone there is shared by Barack Obama, for one. And those who see racial imagery in these web ads (black woman, white man, older white woman, younger white woman, white woman, white woman, white man, Wayne and Garth) are racializing the web ads and drawing attention to them. Be very careful with arguments about latent appeals to this or that; by happenstance, an entire class of voters is deemed to be stupid and easily swayed, where as you are fancy and sophisticated. Not that these arguments are always invalid or suspect; of course not. When the McCain campaign accuses Obama of "hysteria" -- an explicitly gendered, negative term -- and "fussiness" -- an adjective associated with picky babies -- the objective is plain. If McCain's campaign ever does seek to exploit racial prejudice, all you'll be able to say is, "Well, it's part of a pattern." It won't stick out. It won't seem egregious. And if he does do it, it should stick out, and it should be egregious.

More On Edwards Counterfacturals And Iowa

Reader W:

I was a staffer for Bill Richardson's campaign in Iowa for seven months prior to the caucuses, and I want to thank you for pointing out how fallacious the Wolfson "minus Edwards, Hillary wins Iowa" theory is.

The depth and breadth of the disdain for Hillary Clinton among Iowa Democrats is something that didn't get enough attention in the months before the primary. Some of Edwards' strongest supporters--committed Democrats all--were unsure if they'd vote for her should she be the nominee. Given how strong antiwar sentiment was among Iowa Democrats--especially Edwards Democrats--without him in the race, Hillary would have been crushed.

I attended a caucus in Eastern Iowa where John Edwards was not viable. Clinton and Obama had split into two groups that were more or less equal, and when the 15 Edwards (and 5 Richardson) supporters were forced to make second choices, three-fourths went into the Obama corner.

In reality, Hillary and Edwards did as well as they did by winning small, rural, delegate-overrepresented precincts throughout southern and western Iowa. Obama crushed both of them--had it been a straight vote, he'd probably have won by 12 or 13 points.

Where McCain's Following Penn's Strategy -- And Where He's Not

ABC's Jake Tapper argued on last night's World News that John McCain had adopted many of the tactics that Mark Penn urged Hillary Clinton to use in trying to disqualify and delegitimize John McCain.

True?

Penn's advice can be reduced to three main points:

1. Go negative on Obama, subtly and explicitly, and early. Disqualify him as a strong leader.
2. Emphasize Obama's otherness. In Penn's version, some darker arts were mentioned, including Obama's extra-territorial sojourns as a youth.
3. Be tough, not nice.

Here how John McCain has spent his summer.

1. Go negative on Obama, subtly and explicitly, and early. Work to disqualify him as a strong leader.
2. Emphasize Obama's otherness. In McCain's version, it's Obama's celebrity status, his embrace by the world (Obama was OVERSEAS and McCain was AT HOME) and by Hollywood, his status striving and lack of American humility. (Credit to McCain: despite the contentions of some critics, I don't think the McCain campaign has dipped into the cesspool of racial prejudice.)
3. Be tough. Not nice. No more happy warrior McCain; his campaign doesn't seem to care that the elite disapproves of his tactics. Being tough is more important than being nice.

Penn Was An Early Adopter Of The Florigan Strategy

Some of Josh's memo cache serve to reinforce impressions the political world already formed about the Clinton campaign, and others, like this one from March 5, 2008, shed new light on certain calls.

It has been reported and assumed that Mark Penn was one of the later adopters of the Florigan strategy -- that he resisted calls to advise Sen. Clinton call for a revote in Florida and Michigan until too late. Indeed, Green's reporting speaks to a certain paralysis of decision making, and it's not clear who stood in the way.

But it wasn't Penn.

"...The bottom line is the same -- with an aggressive strategy in the remaining states and revotes in Florida and Michigan, this thing could be easily won with a reasonable split in the superdelegates."

That's just ten days after the idea was first proposed by Philippe Reines and Andrew Shapiro in an e-mail sent to Clinton herself.

The Tapes

Various questions about which tapes Mark Penn was referring to when, in his December 30, 2007 meeting, he advised the Clinton staff to "release the tapes."

Secret assignations? Obama at Rev. Wright's church?

More mundane: Videos, most of them later posted on YouTube, showing Obama appearing to take different positions than the ones he was espousing at the time of the memo.

This account is confirmed by someone close to Penn and someone who is not close to Penn. (Ben also has the same information.)

Negative Ads Do Work

Mark Penn is correct. Here's one, from Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), that probably will:

The ad was cut in response to this one by Al Franken.

Focus On The Family Prays For Rain During Obama Speech

Check it out:

Waiting For The Mags, Passing The Time Productively

On Thursday, August 29, 80,000 people will line up to enter Invesco Field in Denver. Greeting them at the gates will be a squadron of federal agents with magnetometers. Security is important; everyone will be carefully screened.

Even with a few dozen magnetometers, though, the queues will be long. 80,000 people will be antsy, sweaty, excited, bored. Presciently, Obama's convention planners realize this.

They're drafting a plan to pass out thousands of cell phones, and with them, lists of persuadable voters from their database along with their home telephone numbers. The idea is to encourage the line-waiters to use their time productively and in service to the cause. One giant phone bank, in other words, waiting to pass through the mag lines.

An Obama campaign official confirmed that the idea was under consideration.

The Penn Memo: Obama Not "Fundamentally American"

Read the full memo, as obtained by the Atlantic's Josh Green, here.

The Clinton Campaign Memos

Read the article here.

Read the memos here.

The Atlantic's Josh Green obtained hundreds of internal e-mails and memorandums circulating among top aides to Hillary Clinton and has woven them into a fascinating narrative of her failed campaign.

Here, in detail and backed up by evidence, is the story of what really happened. The memos, e-mail and Josh's reporting, describe, in detail:

** The battle for strategic supremacy and chaos in the campaign

** Mark Penn and the rest of the staff debating gender, politics, Obama's significance, timing, the media's bias and more.

** Leaking and leaker hunts;

** Penn's view of humanizing candidates and the billionaire who convinced him that being human is overrated; and why Clinton was like Margaret Thatcher;

** A key Clinton insider who just about had it with the rest of the campaign.

** Strategy memos about caucuses and delegates that were not heeded;

Will the article make backstage encounters between the Clintons and Obama more tense in Denver? Probably not. From the article, it appears as if she rejected the advice to attack Obama for sounding "foreign," for example.

The Obama campaign obtained a copy a few days ago; senior-level managers have read the article and would give me no comment, although I do not get the sense that anyone in Chicago is particularly troubled by the revelation.

Here's an excerpt from a memo Penn wrote in December of 2006:

Joshua Green's Article On The Clinton Campaign To Be Posted At 6:30pm ET

Stand by...

Doof Indeed

0,1020,1265486,00.jpg Cool cover, Spiegel.... where did you get the ide....oh, wait...

The Generals Dachas; Or, What's Going On, Really?

The chain of events are hard to follow: so "Misha," as his friends call him, sends troops to a part of South Osettia populated by a Russian-influenced ethnic minority and bombs a city >>> Russia, whose troops had massed on the border, cross into Georgian territory and responds in kind >>> the US, having been cultivated by Saakashvili, responds with harshly worded statements; US foreign policy types go nuts >>> Russia bombs outside of South Osettia >>> the Bush administration seems ineffectual >>> Can we do anything?

Are they fighting (physically) and we fighting (intellectually) over the self-determination of an ethnic minority? Over Georgian Nationalism? Beachfront Dachas? Or something much larger: NATO expansion? The end of American hegemony? The restoration of Russia? The United States's obligations to its allies? There is no closed set.

This is one of those cases where our projection of strength and anger is inversely proportional to the size of the diplomatic and military toolset. We can't really do much. Maybe we can draw a red line. But if the red line is: one country should not unilaterally change the sovereign regime of another, we're in trouble.

Continue reading "The Generals Dachas; Or, What's Going On, Really?" »

More PUMA Mail to Democratic Delegates

Here's the latest e-mail sent by a member of PUMA (Party Unity My Ass..now known as Party Unity Means Action) to some Obama delegates:

From:

Sent: Monday, August 11, 2008 1:19 PM
To:
Subject: Hillary in Nomination

August 11, 2008

Puma PAC

Reply TO:XXXX@pumapac.org

Dear Super Delegate,

I am a Democratic voter and member of Puma PAC, People United Means Action We represent the more than 18 million American voters who supported Senator Clinton and who reject the selection of Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee.

Barack Obama is simply the weaker of the two final candidates for nomination. He is losing ground to Senator McCain every day. Millions of Democrats vow not to vote for him in November because of his inexperience and unreadiness to lead.

Only Senator Clinton can win back the White House for our Party in November.

PLEASE do your job and support Senator Clinton for nomination in Denver.

The Democratic VOTERS want you to support a real winner and leader. The American PEOPLE want you to. Common Sense wants you to. A commitment to DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES wants you to.

PLEASE DO THE RIGHT THING. AMERICAN DEMOCRATS AND VOTERS WILL SUPPORT YOU FOR YOUR COURAGE AND WILLINGNESS TO STAND UP TO PARTY INSIDERS BY REPRESENTING THE VOICE OF THE VOTERS.

Sincerely,

W. Kronert, San Diego, Ca.

Puma PAC democrat

Another McCain Video Mocks Obama's Celeb Status

This one has a Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy tone to it... arch and ironic. I'm not sure of its purpose, other than to get folks like me to notice it and write about it. Do people at McCain's headquarters really have this much contempt for Obama? Or are they exaggerating their contempt for comedic effect?

John Edwards, Iowa, And the Counterfactual Fallacy

Counterfacturals are all the rage in economics, and I guess we could make probablistic inferences about the likelyhood of certain outcomes in politics, too, but the notion that we can write history backwards is just worth the time we spend on it.

We have a bias in favor of causality. If we associate an event with a cause -- even if the association is later proven to be tenuous or non-existent -- we'll have a hard time breaking effect from cause in our minds. Counterfactuals are intuitive in that respect. With an existing association, we can simply add a "cause" to our logic chain and then adjust according.

IF John Edwards had been caught earlier and dropped out before the caucuses, THEN Hillary Clinton would have won Iowa BECAUSE she and Edwards shared the alliegiance of white working class voters, union voters, etc. Well first, even as a basic syllogism, this doesn't really work because the evidence isn't there.

Second, even if we could establish some sort of reverse causality, there's still an infinite number of possible pathways that could lead in an infinite number of directions. If Edwards's affair had been revealed earlier, such as, say, right after it began, Mark Warner might have stayed in the presidential race. Indeed, if Mark Warner had decided to run for president, then he might have filled the anti-establishment void that Barack Obama jumped into. If, If, if.

The Georgia Surprise

The flashover in Georgia seems to have surprised everyone but shocked no one.

The analyst class in the United States explains it the boiling over of a longstanding ethnic conflict cross-pressured by international politics and resource competition; the violence probably inevitable: the active separatists in Abkhazia number about 18% of the population and are less Georgian than they are Russian; Russian "peacekeepers" have been in the region since 1994; both Georgia and Russia have taken turns playing provocateers, with Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili sharing the blame for the flare-up and Putin being blamed for a disproportionate response.

~~Conservative~~ analysts (not just conservatives) see something much more dangerous. Robert Kagan speculates that it was intended as a loud announcement of the end of a 19-year hibernation by the Russians, a sudden, teeth-bearing growl, a prelude to an invasion of Georgia. Our response to August 8, he says, is a Munich-like test for our times. As usual, there's lots of tough talk here. What can the West do?

Because Georgia fought side-by-side with the U.S. in Iraq and risked quite a bit to join the "coalition for the willing," there seems to be an expectation that the U.S. should somehow assist Georgia's military in return. Even if the United States had the stomach to somehow intervene, it really does not have the wherewithal; most everything we have is tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan. Maybe the Navy?

Continue reading "The Georgia Surprise" »

DNC Steps Up Anti-McCain Bracketing

As Barack Obama enjoys a vacation, The Democratic National Committee won't ease up on John McCain. The hope to force a negative McCain message into local news coverage. Tomorrow, the DNC holds an Exxon-McCain '08 National Day of Action" in 18 states. As McCain travels through Pennsylvania, the DNC is dogging him with a "Job-Killing John" push and has events scheduled for Erie, Harrisburg, Lancaster and Philadelphia. The national media is innured against these types of campaigns, but local newspapers, TV stations and web outlets pick them up.

For AFL-CIO in Ohio, McCain's Campaign Manager Is the Target

McCain campaign manager Rick Davis's lobbying on behalf of the DHL shipping company is the focus of a sharp new pamhplet that the AFL-CIO has mailed to 100,000 union households

in Ohio.

The card's two pages describes McCain's connection to the decision to allow DHL, "a German-owned" company, to buy Airborne Express, which employs 8,000 Ohioans in the city of Wilmington. Those jobs could be lossed in the merger. Davis's firm lobbied for DHL at the time. The AFL-CIO alleges that McCain "could have stopped the deal."

Last week, Obama campaign chief David Plouffe promised that voters in Ohio would hear a lot about the DHL deal this fall. McCain's campaign promptly accused him of playing politics with people's jobs, although it's unclear what else a campaign manager could do.

The AFL-CIO is also urging labor union members in Ohio to call McCain's Ohio headquarters and demand Davis's firing.

Continue reading "For AFL-CIO in Ohio, McCain's Campaign Manager Is the Target" »

At The Convention, McCain In The Round

John McCain plans to accept the Republican presidential nomination in a unique setting.

Convention planners are working with broadcasters to stage McCain's speech in the round, with Republican faithful behind him.

It's a special request of McCain image-makers, who think the candidate looks more comfortable -- and feels more comfortable -- when he's surrounded by real people.

Very rarely does McCain speak without people sitting behind him, an innovation of veteran Republican event stager Greg Jenkins.

Obama's VP Announcement Approaching

When will Barack Obama unveil his vice presidential pick?

Early next week, according to circumstantial evidence, as well as some information imparted on the condition of anonymity.

Unless Obama intends to wait until the convnetion begins to -- as George H.W. Bush did in 1988 with Dan Quayle -- choosing the week before the convention is logical.

Campaign advisers have said that they expect Obama and the nominee to tour the country before the convention, but others have suggested a trip after the convention -- during the Republican convention -- that would provide a nice visual and message counterweight to the wall-to-wall coverage of Republicans. In 1992, then Gov. Bill Clinton and Sen. Al Gore bonded over a successful post-convention bus tour with the theme of "on the road to change America."

In an e-mail to supporters last night, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said that Obama "is about to make one of the most important decisions of this campaign -- choosing a running mate" and promised that supporters who typed in their cell phone numbers would recieve a text message alerting them to the pick as soon as it was made.

A small circle of Obama advisers including Plouffe, senior strategist David Axelrod and adviser Valerie Jarrett, are privy to Obama's thinking, and they're not talking. Other senior advisers have asked not to know so they don't have to worry about keeping the secret.

For John McCain, Republicans close to his campaign have penciled in Friday, August 29, the day after Obama accepts the nomination.

Obama Camp "Embraces" Celeb Tag

The Obama campaign calls McCain: "Washington's biggest celebrity."

Plenty of footage of McCain's television appearances interspersed with various shots of McCain embracing George W. Bush.

The ad will run on national cable, which means that, for the most part, it's intended to make an imprint in the minds of political elites.

Elizabeth Edwards Blogs

From Daily Kos:

Our family has been through a lot. Some caused by nature, some caused by human weakness, and some - most recently - caused by the desire for sensationalism and profit without any regard for the human consequences. None of these has been easy. But we have stood with one another through them all. Although John believes he should stand alone and take the consequences of his action now, when the door closes behind him, he has his family waiting for him.

John made a terrible mistake in 2006. The fact that it is a mistake that many others have made before him did not make it any easier for me to hear when he told me what he had done. But he did tell me. And we began a long and painful process in 2006, a process oddly made somewhat easier with my diagnosis in March of 2007. This was our private matter, and I frankly wanted it to be private because as painful as it was I did not want to have to play it out on a public stage as well. Because of a recent string of hurtful and absurd lies in a tabloid publication, because of a picture falsely suggesting that John was spending time with a child it wrongly alleged he had fathered outside our marriage, our private matter could no longer be wholly private.

Edwardses Not Expected To Attend The Convention

Democratic officials say that as of today, there has been no invitation extended to either Sen. John Edwards or Elizabeth Edwards to attend the Democratic National Convention.

The officials, citing today's events, would not comment.

Several former Edwards aides had been under the impression that Elizabeth Edwards would speak on Monday evening, but her name does not appear on the schedule, Democratic officials said.

Elizabeth Edwards has become a national political figure in her own right and is one of the party's top spokespeople on health care reform. And nominees generally find speaking slots for vanquished opponents.

John Edwards's Statement: "I Made A Serious Error In Judgment"

Just released:

In 2006, I made a serious error in judgment and conducted myself in a way that was disloyal to my family and to my core beliefs. I recognized my mistake and I told my wife that I had a liaison with another woman, and I asked for her forgiveness. Although I was honest in every painful detail with my family, I did not tell the public. When a supermarket tabloid told a version of the story, I used the fact that the story contained many falsities to deny it. But being 99% honest is no longer enough.

I was and am ashamed of my conduct and choices, and I had hoped that it would never become public. With my family, I took responsibility for my actions in 2006 and today I take full responsibility publicly. But that misconduct took place for a short period in 2006. It ended then. I am and have been willing to take any test necessary to establish the fact that I am not the father of any baby, and I am truly hopeful that a test will be done so this fact can be definitively established. I only know that the apparent father has said publicly that he is the father of the baby. I also have not been engaged in any activity of any description that requested, agreed to or supported payments of any kind to the woman or to the apparent father of the baby.

It is inadequate to say to the people who believed in me that I am sorry, as it is inadequate to say to the people who love me that I am sorry. In the course of several campaigns, I started to believe that I was special and became increasingly egocentric and narcissistic. If you want to beat me up - feel free. You cannot beat me up more than I have already beaten up myself. I have been stripped bare and will now work with everything I have to help my family and others who need my help.

I have given a complete interview on this matter and having done so, will have nothing more to say.

¿Estás listo para Obama?

John McCain's campaign has purchased traffic on Spanish-language radio stations in Florida next week and plans to air an advertisement that asks if Obama, a "celebrity," is ready to be president and whether voters are ready for him.

The campaign has also inquired about available television ad time in both Florida and Washington State but so far hasn't bit.

ANNCR: With the economy as bad as it is, gas prices going up, home foreclosures, and jobs being lost, we need to be careful about who we pick as our next President.

No doubt, Barack Obama is a popular figure, a celebrity who says the right thing. But will he do the right thing?

So here's the question you need to ask yourself, in these tough economic times, are you ready for a president who voted for higher income taxes on working families making $42,000 a year?

Are you ready for Barack Obama, for his tax plans that will hurt senior citizens.

Are you ready for the higher taxes on income, savings and the sale of your home that Barack Obama promises?

It's not that you're not ready. Barack Obama is not ready yet. Because when it comes to the economy, experience matters, and he just doesn't have it.

He says he'll give you change, but that's what he'll leave you with.

JOHN MCCAIN: I'm John McCain and I approve this message.

The ad will air in several additional states. Right now, only Obama's campaign is running television ads in Florida.

McCain's Convention Themes

Here they are, per a Republican official:

Monday: Service

Tuesday: Reform

Wednesday: Prosperity

Thursday: Peace

Plouffe Dismisses Obama Complaints; Unveils DHL Ad

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe called anonymous Democratic analysts' complaints about the campaign's lack of ferocity "silly" and said that their concerns have no basis in the campaign's survey data.

Plouffe was hosting a conference call this afternoon to unveil a radio advertisement highlighting McCain's connection to DHL's acquisition by Airborne Express and the role that McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis, played in lobbying on behalf of the deal, which could cost Ohioans 8200 jobs. McCain supported the acquisition in the Senate.

There's a tactical debate within informed Democratic circles right now about -- well, not whether Obama should counterpunch - but whether he has counterpunched too much.

NOT reacting next week will be tough. Between Obama's vacation and his recent overseas trip, McCain has been able to spend a lot more time in battleground states like PA and MI. So far, Obama's internal polling hasn't detected much of an uptick. But when he returns, Obama will have to make up time on the ground.

The campaign recognizes that Americans are fatigued from the primaries but baseline opinions about character are being formed now and they don't want Obama to be seen as weak. But counterpunching is reactive, and some campaign officials worry that too much time has been spent responding to McCain's attacks, rather than setting the agenda.

The DHL attack is the first of several advertisements that will challenge McCain's reformer credentials directly.

More On Edwards's Admission

** The interview airs tonight on ABC.

** According to people close to the Edwardses, Elizabeth Edwards has secured a primetime speaking role at the Democratic National Convention; John Edwards, as of this point, does not, and people close to him think he will beg off and not attend the convention so as not to distract Obama. Obama aides would not say whether either Edwards is on the schedule.

** No comment from Edwards's spokespeople.

Edwards Admits An Affair

According to ABC News:

Edwards Admits Sexual Affair; Lied as Presidential Candidate

In ABC News Interview, Edwards Says He Cheated, but Did Not Father Child

By RHONDA SCHWARTZ and BRIAN ROSS

August 8, 2008 --

John Edwards repeatedly lied during his Presidential campaign about an extra-marital affair with a novice film-maker, the former Senator admitted to ABC News today.

In an interview for broadcast tonight on Nightline, Edwards told ABC News correspondent Bob Woodruff he did have an affair with 42-year old Rielle Hunter, but said that he did not love her.

Edwards also denied he was the father of Hunter's baby girl, Frances Quinn, although the one-time Democratic Presidential candidate said he has not taken a paternity test.

Edwards said he knew he was not the father based on timing of the baby's birth on February 27, 2008. He said his affair ended too soon for him to have been the father.

A former campaign aide, Andrew Young, has said he was the father of the child.

According to friends of Hunter, Edwards met her at a New York city bar in 2006. His political action committee later paid her $114,000 to produce campaign website documentaries despite her lack of experience.

Edwards said the affair began during the campaign after she was hired. Hunter traveled with Edwards around the country and to Africa.

Barack Obama's Platform Theme

It's Renewing America's Promise.

Which reminds me of President Bush's 2000 convention theme: Renewing America's Purpose.

And reminds a colleague of one of Hillary Clinton's signature messages: "Renewing the Promise of America."

Obama's convention theme itself is different... and, as of now, not know to me.

Bill Clinton's Convention Speaking Slot

As NBC's Andrea Mitchell reported yesterday, Democratic convention planners have penciled in President Clinton for Wednesday night...

I hear that Clinton has been asked to speak between 9 pm and 10 pm ET. Primetime -- sort of. Remember that the television networks will broadcast only the 10pm-11pm hour live, leaving the other two hours of prime time to the cable nets...

On Wednesday, the 10-11pm hour is reserved for two events: putting the candidate's name over the top and the vice presidential candidate's speech.

So while Clinton _would_ speak in prime time, he wouldn't be live on network television, and at most, the networks would briefly excerpt his speech before they turned to live events.

Clinton's Influence On The DNC Platform

The Obama campaign appointed Michael Yaki, a lawyer and former member of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, to be their national platform director.

In a phone interview interview today, Yaki said that the platform drafters went out of their way to bridge the differences that "divided the Clinton and Obama campaigns," and on planks describing health care policies, "we included the voice of Sen. Clinton on the issues that she cared about." Yaki points to the inclusion of phrases like the "Sandwhich generation," which Clinton used to refer to adults talking care of both their children and their parents, and "the invisibles," the phrase

In a phone interview today, Yaki said that the platform drafters went out of their way to bridge the differences that "divided the Clinton and Obama campaigns," on planks like health care, "we included the voice of Sen. Clinton on the issues that she cared about." Yaki points to the inclusion of phrases like the "Sandwich generation," which Clinton used to refer to adults talking care of both their children and their parents, and "the invisibles," the phrase Clinton used to refer to structural deficits in the economy that rendered Americans invisible to government statistics and government programs.

Getting the 54-page document in order was made more difficult by the truncated primary season. The platform group convened more than 1,600 meetings attended by more than 30,000 Democrats, and Yaki says that he's still reading through their suggestions.

It's no accident that much of the language was drafted to address the concerns of the average American living in the Rust Belt -- home to economically depressed states.

"The most common phrases we found in the energy area... People were saying, with regard to changing our energy policy, 'We need a quote Manhattan project or a quote Apollo to the moon project,'" Yaki said. "People envision that government has a much stronger role in solving the energy crisis for the future."

I asked Yaki how the 2008 platform differed from the 2004 platform. "I would say that it's action-oriented, much more about movement and action. We talk about the New Deal and the New Frontier, both examples of trying to take America boldly in a different direction."

In other words -- very much like the 1992 platform -- Bill Clinton's platform. Tomorrow, the final ratification process begins in Pittsburgh. The final product will be sent to Denver for ratification by the entire convention.

Land Thinks Cantor Would Be A Great VP Choice

Another endorsement of Eric Cantor's vice presidential prospects, this time from Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention. He tells CBS News's Brian Goldsmith:

"I'll tell you another choice that I think would ring a lot of bells among evangelical and Catholic social conservatives, and I think could have some real electoral punch to it, is Eric Cantor, the congressman from Richmond. He's the fourth highest person in the House leadership. He is a conservative, observant Jew, a one hundred percent pro-life voting record. And if he picked Cantor, that would probably help hold Virginia. And it would increase McCain's percentage of the Jewish vote in Florida and Pennsylvania and New Jersey."

Obama's Olympic Ad On Energy

Five million bucks get you...

"Hands," which will run during the Olympics on NBC. It's a positive ad

Visual

Audio

Footage of hands laying out construction plans

ANNCR: The hands that

Footage of welder with mask and gloves on

built this nation

Footage of Hands typing

can build a new economy.

Footage of hands holding potatoes freshly picked from ground

The hands that harvest crops

Footage of woman looking into camera, with windmill in background

can also harvest the wind.

Footage of construction worker nailing a roof onto house in construction

The hands that install roofs,

Footage of man installing solar panel

can also install solar panels.

Footage of modern-day assembly line and workers

The hands that build today's cars,

Footage of modern looking car on display

can build the next generation of fuel-efficient vehicles.

Close-up of Obama headshot

Barack Obama.

Obama shaking hands with man

SUPER: A New Vision for Our Economy

A new vision for our economy.

Footage of windmill farm

SUPER: Fast-Track Alternative Fuels

Fast-track alternative fuels.

Footage of warehouse workers assembling around table then fade into footage of scientists and footage of woman on home-computer

SUPER: Create 5 Million American Jobs

Create 5 million jobs developing home-grown energy technologies.

Footage of Obama with factory worker

Because America's future...

Footage of Obama reaching across table to shake hands with workers

is in our hands.

Footage of Obama

CG: Read the Whole Plan - NewEnergyforAmerica.com

SUPER: Barack Obama. President.

Approved by Barack Obama. Paid for by Obama for America.

I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.

The Atlantic's Boldest

A regular corrections column.

1. John McCain is 71, not 72.

2. At least two Senate candidates have also run advertisements that mention the indictment of Sen. Ted Stevens, including Al Franken.

Just Asking...

If there were a group of questionable donations all with the name Abdullah

that were funneled through a guy in Jordan

who is a Jordanian national

who is under investigation for war profiteering

and it were Barack Obama

instead of John McCain

would this be a bigger deal?

RNC Tweaks Obama's Hawaii Vacation

Kailua Beach Park (450 Kawailoa Road, East O'ahu, Hawaii): This park includes the beach where locals claim Obama was photographed emerging from the sea during his last vacation in Hawaii.
Chevron (Kuhio Highway, Princeville, Kaua'I, Hawaii): This gas station sells a gallon of regular unleaded at $4.78 a gallon. Also available: air for your tires, tire gauges to substitute for a comprehensive energy plan, including domestic exploration. Recent reports show Chevron contributing more to Senator Obama than Senator McCain.
Punahou School (1601 Punahou Street, Honolulu, Hawaii): Obama attended Punahou School, a coeducational college preparatory day school, from 1971 to 1979. The school campus covers 76 acres at the edge of the Manoa Valley.
Photonworks (1188 Bishop Street, Suite 2307, Honolulu, Hawaii): This manufacturer of solar panels would benefit from permanent R&D tax credits set at 10% of wages, which are part of the comprehensive, "all of the above" energy plan proposed by Sen. John McCain.

"Painful"

A new McCain ad claims that Barack Obama voted to raise taxes on folks earning more than $42,000 a year. Technically, the claim stands up-- Obama voted for a budget resolution that would have restored the 25% tax bracket to 28%, which, in theory, might mean more taxes paid by those earning as little as $42,000. But Budget resolutions aren't bills; they're broad targets... so the McCain folks are having a little fun here.

In any event, watch the first 15 seconds of the ad without audio.... it's hard to tell whether it's an Obama commercial or a McCain commercial.

August 2008 Archives

August 31, 2008

The Best Gustav Coverage Online

Wolfson, Hesitant To The End, Finally Saw Some Of The Magic

There's A Lawyer Vet, Then There's A Political Vet

Palin Drops HRC From Speech

Mitt Romney Keeps His Republican Hat On

Josh Green Amid The Stunned Republicans Of Minnesota

The Politics Of Putting Aside Politics

Here's The RNC Release Announcing All The Gustav-Related Changes

McCain On The Convention, Lieberman

Does McCain Need A Convention? Or Just a convention?

A Convention Suddenly Turns Into Something Very Different

Issues And Answers: Palin Pick Perfect For Purple Polities?

August 30, 2008

The Tickets: Iconography Comparison

Here's How Democrats Are Trying To Frame The Palin Pick

The Obama Campaign Thinks We're Dummies

August 29, 2008

Thoughts On An Epic Speech

The Daily Bric-A-Brac: Sarah!

GOP Strategists Mixed Reviews

Your Thoughts On The Palin Pick

McCain And Women

Dems: McCain's Age Is "Fair Game"

What The Campaign Giveth With One Hand, The Candidates Take Away

A Fundamental Question

Wolfson: Palin Pick Makes One Wonder Why Obama Didn't Pick HRC

Sarah Palin's Introduced

Obama Campaign Reactions: Inexperience A "Heartbeat Away"

Palin Profile

Hear Sarah Palin Talk About Windfall Profits Tax And ANWR

Official Statement From McCain

Palin's Foreign Policy Experience

Palin's Facebook Imagery

Did Palin Support A Windfall Profits Tax?

McCain Aide On Palin Pick

Palin, Pro And Con

Note To McCain VP Staff: Delete This

The Palin File, In Brief

CBS: Palin's Parents Told To Wait By Radio...

A Second Plane -- Even More Interesting Than The First

Romney's Not In Dayton

Hazelbaker: McCain Will Choose From The Heart

Pawlenty Won't Be In Dayton

Fun With FlightAware, McCain Edition

Romney Expected To Appear In Dayton Tomorrow

August 28, 2008

Live From Invesco Field

South Carolina GOP Brings Up McCain's "Torture" To Rebut Many Homes Charge

The Obama "Surprise"

A Post On Diversions That Chuck Todd Will Appreciate

Pawlenty Clues -- Sked Cleared

When Is A Bounce Just A Blip (Updated)

Slow Striptease Diverts Reports' Attention

DNC/Obama Ready to Vet The GOP Veep

DNC Preps For VP Pick

Pawlenty Canceling Interviews...

Huge Crowds...Lots Of Mags

VP -- McCain Insists He Hasn't Made Up His Mind Yet

The Enthusiasm Gap

Biden's Most Important Line?

Now He Has A Middle Name

August 27, 2008

The Democrats Nominate Barack Obama

Illinois To New York

Roll Call Votes

RNC Rules Committee Tinkers With Calendar

Other News: Clinton Releases Her Delegates

Did The Obama Campaign See FInal Version Of Clinton's Speech Beforehand?

Plouffe: McCain-Romney Would Be "Greatest Job-Killing Machine" In History

The McCain Ad Shell Game

Quote Of The Day

Plouffe Sanguine About Obama's Prospects

New McCain "Ad" Calls Obama "Dangerously Unprepared"

No Bruce At Invesco

Should Clinton Have Vouched For Obama's C-in-C Readiness?

With Warner, Obama Introduces A Theme

Who Vetted Daddy Yankee?

August 26, 2008