A Fundamental Question

is whether undecided women, weakly partisan Democrats, independent suburban women, women between the ages of 30 and 50, will now take a hard second look at John McCain because of his choice of Sarah Palin.

I think they will.  A second look,... doesn't mean they'll vote for him. But he's earned himself a second look. Identity politics works that way.

The Obama campaign will try to find a way to connect with these women. McCain's national security argument didn't drive them to Obama, and Obama's "she's not ready" argument won't drive them away from McCain. Equal pay, abortion rights, gay rights, Palin's reputed temper, the environment... there's a grab bag of issues to choose from, but they need an argument, not an issue.