Evangelical white Protestants account for about two in 10 Americans, with lopsided voting patterns that give them clout - as in 1994, when evangelicals helped the Republican Party gain control of Congress for the first time in 40 years.
Evangelicals aren't remotely a swing group, but a core Republican one. In 2006, as the GOP lost Congress in a broad anti-Republican surge, 70 percent of white evangelicals bucked the tide and voted Republican, vs. 28 percent for Democrats. In 2004, 78 percent supported George W. Bush, vs. 21 percent for John Kerry.
Before we get to current vote preferences, consider even more basic attitudes. In our most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll evangelical white Protestants were 28 points more likely than other Americans to identify themselves as Republicans (47 vs. 19 percent) and 27 points more likely to be conservatives (57 vs. 30 percent).
Sixty percent of evangelicals say the war in Iraq was worth fighting, one of the few groups in which a majority holds that view. Fifty-four percent approve of George W. Bush's job performance; just 23 percent of other Americans agree.
Seven in 10 call "strength and experience" in the next president more important than "a new direction and new ideas," again among the highest of any group. Sixty-two percent say McCain shares their values; among all other Americans just 44 percent say the same. Just 36 percent say Obama shares their values. Among other Americans, it's 61 percent.
He concludes:
...the gap between evangelical white Protestants and Obama is a far wider and deeper than it is between evangelicals and McCain. Obama's real best hope, and McCain's greatest challenge, is probably not that an unusual number of evangelicals will vote Democratic in November - but rather that they'll just stay home.
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