Did the Palin pick surprise Barack Obama's campaign?
Yes. They believed the media for one in their lives and it turned out to be a mistake. Though the Democratic National Committee had a research folder prepared for Palin, the VP rapid response team read up on Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and Joe Biden all week. The Obama campaign was caught by surprise and scrambled to figure out the best way to respond. By the end of Friday, they seemed to have settled on a two-pronged response: Obama, Biden and the campaign would be respectful and Democratic allies would aggressively peddle research to the media, simultaneously trying to convey the impression that they respect the historic nature of the pick while doing their best to discredit Palin.
Why did he pick her, really?
It was, a spokesman said, a very personal pick, a pick from the heart and not
necessarily the brain. What I gather most impressed McCain about her was her
quick wit, her life story, her willingness to take on corrupt Republicans in
Alaska, and the frank political calculation that independent women might be
forced to take a real second look at McCain?
Is Palin ready?
For the campaign trail? Maybe. Her first
speech sounded like one of those "real people" that campaign advance teams find
to introduce candidates at major rallies. Her interviews have been crisp. The
glow of the new is preventing any real scrutiny right now.
To be president? The argument that she is "more qualified than Obama" is not the same thing as an argument that she is ready to be president. Republicans had to reach, pointing out her fishing dispute negotiations with Canada and her service as the head of the Alaska National Guard. Hey, Howard Dean was head of the Vermont National Guard, come to think of it.
She's just had a baby. Can she be a full-time campaigner?
Tough question. The McCain campaign would say "Would you ask that question if she were a man?" And I'd say, "you answer my question first, and then I'll answer yours." And the McCain campaign would say: "It's a sexist question." And I'd say: "You're answering the argument, not the question. " And they'd say: "You're just against her because she an evangelical Christian and you secular media types can't stand a feminist who isn't a liberal." And I'd say: "What were we talking about again?"
Forget about the pieties. It's a legit question, one that'll be on the minds of many mothers and fathers who struggle to balance work and family life, and given the rigors of a presidential campaign and the extreme rigors of being the vice president, it's one that Palin herself will probably find a way to answer down the line.
Was she really vetted?
We'll see. So far, the McCain campaign seems to have anticipated every counter-charge from the Democrats, but that doesn't mean they've answered them. She doesn't believe in evolution? (Most Americans don't either.) She supported a windfall profits tax. (That was a specific circumstance.) She's under investigation by an ethics board (the bad guy here will not turn out to be Palin.) She raised sales taxes in Wassila (We missed that one...but Wassila is a small town.) Wassila is a small town. (Oh, so now Obama's criticizing small town America? Liberal elitist?" She's pro-life. (Yep.) She supports ANWR (McCain respects her views, but he's going to be the president.") She's questioned what the vice president even does. (A reasonable question after Dick Cheney.)
Did Palin change the dynamic of the race?
Well, that enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans may begin to
narrow. Let's talk after the Republican convention. The McCain campaign has
proven adept at getting inside the Obama campaign's OODA loop, and the Obama
campaign does expect her coming out week to be good for Obama's opponents. Once the campaigning begins, then we'll see. Don't believe the polls this week.
Will women flock to the McCain campaign?
Probably not.
Will a statistically significant number of women decide to support McCain?
Anyone who claim to know is lying. Check back on September 15.
How big are the risks for McCain?
Enormous. The fighter pilot whose hero is TR is trying to land with zero visibility. It is going to be hard to wrest away from Obama the banner of change, and McCain risks being seen as unserious about national security. Palin is smart and quick on the draw, but she is completely untested and prone to bursts of the mouth. She seems to know very little about Iraq and the world and even about the national economy. She is an identity pick, first and foremost, and a process-pick, second. Women could be offended or inspired;
Is the pick good for the Republican Party.
Absolutely. Even if McCain loses in November, the GOP's new standard bearer will be a younger working mother from outside Washington and not a rich businessman with perfect hair from Massachusetts. McCain may have saved the GOP at the expense of the campaign.
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