New NBC/WSJ, CBS/NYT Polls

These are two of the best polls in the business, and they're remarkably similar.  Obama leads by three, within the margin the error. Obama's favorables have declined over the summer. Clinton supporters remain skeptical and even give McCain an edge in certain attributes.

The CBS poll says that independents are beginning to lean more toward McCain. Also: white men. And twice as many women are undecided.

John McCain is running a negative campaign. That's the conclusion of ... wait. Just 29% of voters? Probably all Democrats. But a record for recent history.

Still: the environment favors Obama.

A whopping 60 percent say it's time to have a president who will focus on progress and moving America forward, compared with 35 percent who would rather have a president who focuses on protecting what has made America great.

And voters see McCain as way too close to President Bush.