It's an article of faith among Republicans that regardless of whether John McCain wins the election but especially if he does not is that a civil war will begin within the party. The first shots have been fired in the international deliberations of the RNC's rules committee, which is debating the party's calendar for 2012.
Several plans are circulating, and conservatives, more so than moderates, are acting strategically. They're massing support for the so-called "Ohio plan." It has carrots for New Hampshire and Iowa, recogizing their early status. But it gives small states more power. Beginning in late February, a "pod" of smaller states will hold their contests. Two weeks later, a "pod" of larger states would get to go, followed by other pods every three weeks. Blind selection will determine the identity of the states within each pods, and states that don't go early in 2012 will probably get to go early in 2016. (New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada would still get to go early.)
Big states don't like the Ohio plan because it gives smaller states a bigger voice, earlier on. More liberal Republicans don't like the Ohio plan either, although, in theory, smaller, liberal eastern states would get more influence under that plan than they would under the current rules.
An alternative proposal, offered by RNC members from Texas, would move the "window" to March. Contiguous states would hold regional primaries, one per month, in March, April and May.
Committee watchers say that the Ohio plan could pass at the convention. McCain insiders have been neutral so far, only expressing the preference that New Hampshire and other early states get to keep some privileged role.
NB: RNC watchers report a a movement by a coalition of Iraq vets to get voting rights in all state delegate selection processes for active duty. In addition to its own merits, it'd be a kind of a 'put your money where your mouth is' plank in the platform language. Reports a Republican: "The fact that the Dem platform and Dem rules say nothing about vet voting rights is a nice contrast."
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